VP's Diamond picks: 4/25/14 ​(YTD 33-23-1 +28.75 Units)

Search

Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2006
Messages
1,517
Tokens
1-0 (+2.75 Units) yesterday, hitting on the PHI/LAD over and missing a small homerun prop. Getting one evening play in now, before some expected line movement.

1st 5 Innings - PIRATES -105 3 Units
Shelby Miller is failing mechanically, and the Pirates are one of the teams to have already taken advantage of this previously. Gerrit Cole is a solid up and coming staff ace, and on the verge of being a household name. I'll add more writeup when I get time later. I just wanted to get this locked in at the low price, I expect this to be near 115 to 120 by first pitch.
 

Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2006
Messages
1,517
Tokens
To shortly elaborate on Shelby Miller; his swing and miss numbers have been in free fall since September last year (specifically on his off-speed and breaking pitches). This means the batters are putting way more balls in play than he can afford given that his WHIP has been in the 1.50-2.00 range since then. The Pirates lineup is batting, collectively .287/.347/.609 against him in a sample size of 87 AB. In these 87 AB, the Pirates have 6 HR (Alvarez 3 HR in 13 AB, Martin 2 HR in 9 AB, and Tabata 1 HR in 5 AB) and 12 RBI. Miller is 0-4, 5.34 ERA against the Pirates in 4 starts. It seems they have his number, and he and they both know it. The Cards lineup on the other hand are batting .222/.276/.333 against Gerrit Cole, and Cole's numbers are trending towards dominance. His surface numbers are decent (3.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) this season, but when you take a closer look they should be even better. His swing and miss % is up, his batted balls in the strike zone % is down, his GB% is up, and line drive % is down from last year. He's been victim to poor fielding in two of his starts this year, and that has effected his ERA. His HR/FB is abnormally up and will certainly steady downward by about 10%. If this stabilizes, his ERA should drop close to a whole point. My numbers have this full game as a 2+ run Pirates win. I considered playing the Alt RL, but I think that I'll keep the recently shaky Bucco's bullpen out of this and take the ML value in the first 5.
 

Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2006
Messages
1,517
Tokens
Adding:

ROYALS/ORIOLES UNDER 8.5 (-110) 2 Units
I am still big on Yordano Ventura, even after his last start had cost me dearly. The Twins really took advantage of an unfortunate outing for Ventura. He gave up an uncharacteristic 4 BB in 4 IP, almost all of which were lost with 2 strikes. The Twins were very opportunistic with their hitting as well, driving in 4 of 5 baserunners that reach scoring position. This Oriole lineup has some pop, but they are also prone to strikeouts. Ventura has electric stuff and over zealous bats are his specialty. Ubaldo Jimenez has been pretty terrible this year. He's allowed too many walks, and he has been unable to get out of jams. It is alot of what we've seen out of him last year, yet last year he posted great numbers against this Royals lineup. A lineup that has failed to score more than 3 runs in 4 of their last 5 games. The weather report is unfavorable for ball carry tonight. Wind pushing inward and towards left field, High % chance of light precipitation, and high humidity. My numbers have this game at 5-7 runs combined.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,901
Messages
13,439,380
Members
99,343
Latest member
manojkumarone17
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com