2 Monday w/analysis

All plays are 2 units and listed pitchers must go.

Cleveland +112 over L.A. ANGELS
Not the best of spots for the Halos. L.A. returns home from a long, nine-game trip that ended with a Sunday night prime timer in the Bronx. The Angels went a respectable 4-5 on said trip against Detroit, Washington and the Yankees but did lose three of their last four games. Tyler Skaggs (LHP) is unbeaten on the young season, as he is 2-0 through four starts, with both of his wins being of the pure quality variety. He has been great at keeping the ball on the ground (58% groundball rate), but there are warning signs in his profile that insist on some rough outings ahead. Skaggs has just a 7/7 K/BB in his last two starts over 13 innings. His 6% swinging strike rate reveals he’s not missing a lot of bats. Skaggs has escaped plenty of jams in his four starts but that Houdini can last only so long. Skaggs went 2-3 last season with a 5.12 ERA in 39 innings for the D-Backs. He made no less than five round trips from Arizona to exotic minor league destinations. Showed flashes of brilliance, but dominant start/disaster start split highlight current feast-or-famine ways. Skaggs is still just 22, he still has a bright future, and he’s still very much a work in progress.

At the beginning of March the Indians avoided arbitration with Justin Masterson, signing him to a one-year, $9.76 million deal. Masterson posted a nice K rate gain last year but his control was still a bit high (particularly in the second half). However, he continues to keep the ball on the ground at elite levels and this year his groundball rate is soaring at 60%. Masterson finally solved his career-long struggles against LH hitting last season by posting a .248/.340/.357 line. Masterson’s dominant start/disaster start split of 79%/10% reveals just how dominant he was in 2013 and he does not look worse this season. Masterson has made five starts on the season and has yet to earn a decision. He has 30 K’s in 28 frames and an outstanding 60%/20%/20% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. A hefty 36% hit rate and 19% hr/f have assisted in his 4.50 ERA, which is more than a run higher than his 3.27 xERA. Starters this good rarely go long stretches without a win while pitchers as average as Skaggs rarely go long stretches without a loss. This has nothing to do with the “due for a win or due for a loss” angle. Instead it has everything to do with taking back a price on the significantly superior starter.

ST. LOUIS -1½ +149 over Milwaukee
The Brewers are good but their 90% winning mark on the road is unsustainable and the injury bug has hit them with two key members (Ryan Braun & Jean Segura) being sidelined. The Crew was shutout by Jason Hammel yesterday and they lost two of three at Miller Park earlier this year by scores of 4-1 and 6-1. In that series, Milwaukee avoided Michael Wacha but they don’t get that luxury this time around. Wacha went 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA in 65 innings for the Cardinals last season. This 2012 1st-rounder made it to majors in less than 12 months with a big splash. His 2nd half strikeout rate was backed by a big swinging strike rate, which has continued into his first five starts this year. Wacha has 35 K’s in 30 innings with an elite swinging strike rate of 14%. His 2.10 ERA is fully supported by his 2.67 XERA. Wacha is the real deal and with the only negative being a small sample size but everything points to this guy being the real deal.

Then there’s Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo owns a 1.42 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after 32 innings but those stats are a mirage. Gallardo’s 88% strand rate and 3% hr/f are the key drivers to his eye opening stats. A start versus the Cardinals is exactly what could bring him back to earth because in 17 career starts versus the Cardinals, he is 1-11 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Gallardo’s xERA is closer to 4 than it is to 2. He’s an average pitcher that has been the beneficiary of throwing against some clubs that got off to a slow start at the plate. Gallardo has seen the Pirates twice and the Padres once over his last three starts. He’s simply not that good anymore and will be exposed as such much sooner than later. Risky bet spotting 1½ runs at home in a pitcher’s park but this price and pitching matchup warrants it.