1 Tuesday w/analysis

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2 unit play.

Oakland +101 over TEXAS

Martin Perez is simply on fire. Perez has thrown 26 innings over his last three starts while allowing zero earned runs. A small caution to that streak is that only one of those three starts was a pure quality start, meaning his surface stats were better than his kills. That’s not to say that Perez is a bad or lucky pitcher. We’re merely pointing out that his skills suggest he should not be that dominant and regression is not far away. Perez went 10-6 with a 3.62 ERA in 124 innings for the Rangers last season. This former top prospect finally flashed upside but he's still a work in progress and his xERA doesn't give him support for a sub-4 mark. Perez has a history of marginal command and he’s as likely to take a step back as he is to step forward. Perez has just 23 K’s in 38 innings and that low K rate is supported by a very pedestrian 7% swinging strike rate. Perez’s surface stats are fueled by an unsustainable 86% strand rate, which is even more unsustainable when you consider that he doesn’t miss a lot of bats and puts the ball in play. His last start was a shutout versus the A's and he now gets them again. The A's lead the AL in team OPS at .770. In six career starts versus the A's, Perez is 3-3 with a 4.18 ERA, 4.57 xERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Lots of folks are likely going to be betting the Rangers today based on Perez’s surface stats. We say be cautious.

Scott Kazmir’s surface stats are fully supported by his under the hood stats. Kazmir has a 6/31 BB/K profile in 33 innings with a swinging strike rate of 12%. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 54%/11%/35% is one of the top five batted ball profiles in the game after five starts. In Kazmir we get a strikeout pitcher with an elite groundball rate at an extreme hitter’s park. In Perez, you get a guy that puts the ball in play at an extreme hitter’s park. In addition to displaying the best control of his life, Kazmir’s dominant performances can he credited to a couple of pitches he’s mastered, a slider and changeup. He has a 17% swinging strike rate with his slider and and a 16% swinging strike rate with his changeup. He’s keeping the hitter’s off balance and he’s finishing them off with pitches they are not suspecting. The A’s are almost always a live pooch but with Kazmir on the hill they become even livelier.
 

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Wish' to got it earlier, ended up paying -107 but it caught my eye right off. Good luck I'm on it too. Love your write ups Sherwood. Thank you
 

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