1st 5 Innings - ROYALS -0.5 (-110) 3 Units
Dustin McGowan is one of my highly faded starters. His low GB%, low K/9, high WHIP, and low Swinging strike %, make him an absolute run machine. His fastball, changeup, and slider have been absolute meatballs this season. The Royals are a good fastball hitting team so they can handle the 95mph velocity, given his lack movement on the pitch thus far in the season. Plainly put, he's not fooling anyone. Jason Vargas, on the other hand, is trending towards a career best season. After 5 starts, he's sporting a 1.54 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Although I believe these numbers will almost certainly come back down toward the league average, there is also reason to believe that his success will continue. He's kept a steady average of GB/FB/LD that's been consistent to his previous seasons, but the spray chart fits Kaufman better than almost any other stadium he's pitched in. The batted balls are left very fieldable. If this continues, he could finish the season near the 3 ERA mark.
Dustin McGowan is one of my highly faded starters. His low GB%, low K/9, high WHIP, and low Swinging strike %, make him an absolute run machine. His fastball, changeup, and slider have been absolute meatballs this season. The Royals are a good fastball hitting team so they can handle the 95mph velocity, given his lack movement on the pitch thus far in the season. Plainly put, he's not fooling anyone. Jason Vargas, on the other hand, is trending towards a career best season. After 5 starts, he's sporting a 1.54 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Although I believe these numbers will almost certainly come back down toward the league average, there is also reason to believe that his success will continue. He's kept a steady average of GB/FB/LD that's been consistent to his previous seasons, but the spray chart fits Kaufman better than almost any other stadium he's pitched in. The batted balls are left very fieldable. If this continues, he could finish the season near the 3 ERA mark.
Adding:
A's/RANGERS UNDER 8 (-110) 3 Units
Vegas made a mistake here. To me this total should be closer to 7, 7.5 at the most. Scott Kazmir has been pitching lights out this season. His GB% is up, his Swinging Strike % is up, and his strand rate is also up. He's been getting batters to chase more than he has in previous seasons, and this has been very helpful in repairing stats. Martin Perez is having an equally impressive season for the Rangers, holding a 1.42 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. His GB% is up remarkably from last season. He's been having a great amount of success in bringing the bats out of the zone and forcing bad contact. This is huge for going deep into games and getting out of jams. I see this game staying around 5-7 runs.
A's/RANGERS UNDER 8 (-110) 3 Units
Vegas made a mistake here. To me this total should be closer to 7, 7.5 at the most. Scott Kazmir has been pitching lights out this season. His GB% is up, his Swinging Strike % is up, and his strand rate is also up. He's been getting batters to chase more than he has in previous seasons, and this has been very helpful in repairing stats. Martin Perez is having an equally impressive season for the Rangers, holding a 1.42 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. His GB% is up remarkably from last season. He's been having a great amount of success in bringing the bats out of the zone and forcing bad contact. This is huge for going deep into games and getting out of jams. I see this game staying around 5-7 runs.
