The case for taking Manziel, for 11 teams
ESPN INSIDER
One player in the 2014 NFL draft has the power to instantly transform an irrelevant franchise into a compelling one. Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel stands alone in that regard. He's the X factor in the top 10 selections, the player hard-core football people see "moving the needle" enough for a team owner to pressure his decision-makers into selecting Manziel with an early choice.
"It will be hard for some owners to not push," one general manager predicted.
"There are a couple of teams with the owner very much in play," a veteran agent said.
The Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders are two of those teams, and with Manziel, an owner might not need to push very hard, if at all, because the talent is obvious enough for some evaluators to fall in love with Manziel on their own. The case for drafting Manziel applies beyond Cleveland and Oakland, reaching teams with established and semi-established starters already in place. We'll take a harder look at those teams here. It's the most topical subject in the NFL, not just in the media but inside the league as well.<!--offer-->
We should begin with the Houston Texans, because they have the first pick and their current quarterbacks, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum, probably aren't long-term answers. For Houston, selecting Manziel over South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney would energize a Texans franchise that already possesses one of the game's most dominant defensive linemen. However, the feeling from nearly one month ago hasn't changed. The Texans will draft a quarterback, the pro thinking goes, but probably not Manziel and probably not with the first choice.
There's little reason to think the St. Louis Rams would use the second pick for a quarterback when they have obvious needs elsewhere and appear committed to Sam Bradford for this coming season. They'll draft a quarterback, most likely, but not with one of the two first-round picks in their possession. Taking a quarterback early would not make them better for 2014 in a hyper-competitive NFC West.
The teams picking third through fifth in the order -- the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland and Oakland -- need long-term solutions at quarterback. These are largely faceless franchises. They are not particularly marketable. Their owners are unestablished, which makes them less predictable. The Jaguars are the most stable operation of the three. League insiders put them into the "maybe" category when it comes to Manziel, with most thinking Jacksonville will go in another direction at No. 3.
Owner's prerogative
The case for the Cleveland Browns
Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has said he'll let new GM Ray Farmer and the personnel department decide which players the team will draft, but what else is he going to say? Actions speak louder than words in Cleveland, and so far this offseason we've seen Haslam fire head coach Rob Chudzinski after one season, then flush out execs Mike Lombardi and Joe Banner. Meanwhile, his trucking company remains the subject of a federal fraud investigation. So yeah, the Browns could use the energy Manziel would infuse into their organization.
"Farmer fell into the job, it's his first time and they need to become relevant," a longtime NFL executive said.
Cleveland is the only team in the league with a top left tackle (Joe Thomas), a true No. 1 wide receiver (Josh Gordon) and no veteran starting quarterback on its roster (Brian Hoyer has four career starts). That means the Browns can offer immediate playing time for a rookie quarterback and a reasonable level of support, particularly with center Alex Mack returning.
The case for the Oakland Raiders
The Raiders ranked last among NFL teams in attendance last season. Their stadium situation is a mess relative to the ones successful franchises enjoy.
Oakland needed a long-term plan this offseason, but with the clock ticking for coach Dennis Allen and GM Reggie McKenzie, the team patched its roster with players on the wrong side of 30. What will be the immediate payoff for a team that must navigate a schedule featuring four games against the rugged NFC West? Improving marginally from the 4-12 mark Oakland posted in 2013 isn't going to accomplish much when Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith, Carlos Rogers and Charles Woodson will be another year deeper into their 30s.
"The owner needs to sell tickets," the agent said. "Manziel would sell tickets." Matt Schaub isn't going to sell any after the career implosion he suffered in Houston last season. Schaub, at his best, is efficient, not invigorating.
Three tougher sells
The case for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The word going around the league says Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Jason Licht placed a high grade on Manziel before Licht left the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, and that Licht remains a big fan of Manziel as his new team decides what to do with the seventh overall choice. That could be true, although there's a difference between assigning a high grade on a player while working beneath the GM, instead of working as the GM.
The feeling here is that coach Lovie Smith would rather have a steady veteran presence at quarterback than a volatile youngster like Manziel. When Smith was with the Chicago Bears, the team never drafted a quarterback earlier than when it took Kyle Orton with the 106th pick in 2005. When Smith took over in Tampa Bay, the Bucs went after 34-year-old veteran Josh McCown.
So would the Bucs' owners push for Manziel? They're known to be active behind the scenes, but Licht has been on a roll this offseason, Smith is an established coach and both are just getting started. They should have the freedom to implement their plan from the beginning. That plan probably does not include Manziel at the No. 7 overall pick, although you never know.
The case for the Minnesota Vikings
Mike Zimmer is an old-school head coach. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner has generally been associated with traditional pocket passers. I don't see Manziel fitting on the surface, but the possibilities are intriguing for a team with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, a talented young left tackle (Matt Kalil) and an emerging young receiver in Cordarrelle Patterson. Blake Bortles or another more traditional quarterback could fit better if the Vikings decide to select one with the eighth overall choice.
The case for the Buffalo Bills
The Bills could almost fit into the "Owner's Prerogative" category. They're not very relevant. Their ownership situation is unstable. They've tried to grow their fan base in unorthodox ways, including by playing games in Toronto. But with 2013 first-round pick EJ Manuel starting only 10 games as a rookie and looking pretty good in about half of them, the Bills aren't likely to draft a quarterback with the ninth overall pick.
Three interesting fits outside the top 10
The case for the Tennessee Titans
Conventional wisdom says the Titans will proceed with Jake Locker as their starter and Charlie Whitehurst as their backup, but should they? A quarterbacks coach I spoke with this week placed Locker in the very lowest tier of NFL starters. New coach Ken Whisenhunt has nothing invested in Locker. Backup Charlie Whitehurst knows the offense Whisenhunt plans to install, but he's not a viable alternative.
So are the Titans best served putting all their faith in Locker, who has been hurt, and letting him have the job unopposed? Whisenhunt has generally favored big, tall quarterbacks, so the fit with Manziel might not be comfortable. But a wide range of people in the league I've spoken with said they could see it as a possibility, albeit a longer shot.
The case for the Dallas Cowboys
Go ahead and criticize owner/GM Jerry Jones for the Cowboys' record in recent seasons, but never question his team's relevance. Jones is known to covet star power, making Manziel seem like a natural choice for Dallas if the quarterback is available when the Cowboys select at No. 16 overall. Tony Romo's bad back invites the thought. But look at the Cowboys' three most recent first-round selections: center Travis Frederick, cornerback Morris Claiborne and tackle Tyron Smith. These were hardly flashy selections, although Dallas made a big move up the board to select Claiborne.
One particularly cynical line of thinking says Jones paid more than he needed to for Romo and was making a statement when he did so, and now he'll want to prove he was right by sticking with Romo. The question here would be whether Manziel would be appealing enough to set a course change.
The case for the New York Jets
The team already has Geno Smith and Michael Vick, but so what? The production for Smith through 16 starts raises concerns about his future prospects. He was only a second-round choice, so the Jets aren't overly invested in him. Vick is nearing the end and has a hard time staying healthy. An agent with no ties to Manziel said the quarterback has interviewed extremely well with teams, which could be a factor for GMs giving at least some thought to change at the position. "You never know with the Jets," the agent said. "The owner, Woody Johnson, could get involved there, too."
Three interesting fits for teams drafting outside the top 20
The case for the Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Foles went 8-2 as a starter last season with 24 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 67.4 Total QBR score in those games. That makes him untouchable, right? Not really. Coach Chip Kelly inherited Foles and fared much better than expected with him, but the QB coach referenced above thought the Eagles got above-average play from a below-average quarterback. The point is simply to avoid overreacting to one good partial season. Kelly recruited Manziel to Oregon (he verbally committed to the Ducks before ultimately choosing the Aggies), and he made some glowing comments about him recently. How could he not like Manziel for his offense? The fit would be perfect.
The case for the Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will almost certainly draft a quarterback somewhere along the way as incumbent Andy Dalton enters the final year of his rookie deal. Dalton has been wildly inconsistent from a performance standpoint, but he is very steady emotionally and could probably handle the distractions that surely would come with adding a quarterback like Manziel in the first round. Cincinnati has done a pretty good job developing quarterbacks over the years. I suspect Manziel would be out of their comfort level and off the board well before Cincy seriously considers drafting for the position.
The case for the New England Patriots
A defensive coach I spoke with loved the thought of the Patriots somehow making a move for Manziel, no matter how improbable the likelihood. Tom Brady is 36 years old, the same age Brett Favre was when Green Bay selected Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the 2005 draft. Favre played three more years before Rodgers took over. Brady is under contract through 2017, putting the Patriots in position to follow a similar course. Brady's backup, Ryan Mallett, is entering the final year of his rookie contract.
The Patriots have seemingly relished changing up their schemes and winning through various means, even when Brady was injured. Manziel would be the ultimate project for coach Bill Belichick, who has done things his way. For example, Belichick signed Tim Tebow and then pretty much refused to talk about him. He could take a similar tack with Manziel, and if Brady struggled for a couple of games, no one would call for a change, anyway. It's certainly unlikely given the Patriots' draft position (No. 29 overall) and when Manziel figures to go off the board, but an interesting thought nonetheless.
ESPN INSIDER
One player in the 2014 NFL draft has the power to instantly transform an irrelevant franchise into a compelling one. Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel stands alone in that regard. He's the X factor in the top 10 selections, the player hard-core football people see "moving the needle" enough for a team owner to pressure his decision-makers into selecting Manziel with an early choice.
"It will be hard for some owners to not push," one general manager predicted.
"There are a couple of teams with the owner very much in play," a veteran agent said.
The Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders are two of those teams, and with Manziel, an owner might not need to push very hard, if at all, because the talent is obvious enough for some evaluators to fall in love with Manziel on their own. The case for drafting Manziel applies beyond Cleveland and Oakland, reaching teams with established and semi-established starters already in place. We'll take a harder look at those teams here. It's the most topical subject in the NFL, not just in the media but inside the league as well.<!--offer-->
We should begin with the Houston Texans, because they have the first pick and their current quarterbacks, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum, probably aren't long-term answers. For Houston, selecting Manziel over South Carolina defensive end Jadeveon Clowney would energize a Texans franchise that already possesses one of the game's most dominant defensive linemen. However, the feeling from nearly one month ago hasn't changed. The Texans will draft a quarterback, the pro thinking goes, but probably not Manziel and probably not with the first choice.
There's little reason to think the St. Louis Rams would use the second pick for a quarterback when they have obvious needs elsewhere and appear committed to Sam Bradford for this coming season. They'll draft a quarterback, most likely, but not with one of the two first-round picks in their possession. Taking a quarterback early would not make them better for 2014 in a hyper-competitive NFC West.
The teams picking third through fifth in the order -- the Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland and Oakland -- need long-term solutions at quarterback. These are largely faceless franchises. They are not particularly marketable. Their owners are unestablished, which makes them less predictable. The Jaguars are the most stable operation of the three. League insiders put them into the "maybe" category when it comes to Manziel, with most thinking Jacksonville will go in another direction at No. 3.
Owner's prerogative
The case for the Cleveland Browns
Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has said he'll let new GM Ray Farmer and the personnel department decide which players the team will draft, but what else is he going to say? Actions speak louder than words in Cleveland, and so far this offseason we've seen Haslam fire head coach Rob Chudzinski after one season, then flush out execs Mike Lombardi and Joe Banner. Meanwhile, his trucking company remains the subject of a federal fraud investigation. So yeah, the Browns could use the energy Manziel would infuse into their organization.
"Farmer fell into the job, it's his first time and they need to become relevant," a longtime NFL executive said.
Cleveland is the only team in the league with a top left tackle (Joe Thomas), a true No. 1 wide receiver (Josh Gordon) and no veteran starting quarterback on its roster (Brian Hoyer has four career starts). That means the Browns can offer immediate playing time for a rookie quarterback and a reasonable level of support, particularly with center Alex Mack returning.
The case for the Oakland Raiders
The Raiders ranked last among NFL teams in attendance last season. Their stadium situation is a mess relative to the ones successful franchises enjoy.
Oakland needed a long-term plan this offseason, but with the clock ticking for coach Dennis Allen and GM Reggie McKenzie, the team patched its roster with players on the wrong side of 30. What will be the immediate payoff for a team that must navigate a schedule featuring four games against the rugged NFC West? Improving marginally from the 4-12 mark Oakland posted in 2013 isn't going to accomplish much when Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith, Carlos Rogers and Charles Woodson will be another year deeper into their 30s.
"The owner needs to sell tickets," the agent said. "Manziel would sell tickets." Matt Schaub isn't going to sell any after the career implosion he suffered in Houston last season. Schaub, at his best, is efficient, not invigorating.
Three tougher sells
The case for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The word going around the league says Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Jason Licht placed a high grade on Manziel before Licht left the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, and that Licht remains a big fan of Manziel as his new team decides what to do with the seventh overall choice. That could be true, although there's a difference between assigning a high grade on a player while working beneath the GM, instead of working as the GM.
The feeling here is that coach Lovie Smith would rather have a steady veteran presence at quarterback than a volatile youngster like Manziel. When Smith was with the Chicago Bears, the team never drafted a quarterback earlier than when it took Kyle Orton with the 106th pick in 2005. When Smith took over in Tampa Bay, the Bucs went after 34-year-old veteran Josh McCown.
So would the Bucs' owners push for Manziel? They're known to be active behind the scenes, but Licht has been on a roll this offseason, Smith is an established coach and both are just getting started. They should have the freedom to implement their plan from the beginning. That plan probably does not include Manziel at the No. 7 overall pick, although you never know.
The case for the Minnesota Vikings
Mike Zimmer is an old-school head coach. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner has generally been associated with traditional pocket passers. I don't see Manziel fitting on the surface, but the possibilities are intriguing for a team with Adrian Peterson in the backfield, a talented young left tackle (Matt Kalil) and an emerging young receiver in Cordarrelle Patterson. Blake Bortles or another more traditional quarterback could fit better if the Vikings decide to select one with the eighth overall choice.
The case for the Buffalo Bills
The Bills could almost fit into the "Owner's Prerogative" category. They're not very relevant. Their ownership situation is unstable. They've tried to grow their fan base in unorthodox ways, including by playing games in Toronto. But with 2013 first-round pick EJ Manuel starting only 10 games as a rookie and looking pretty good in about half of them, the Bills aren't likely to draft a quarterback with the ninth overall pick.
Three interesting fits outside the top 10
The case for the Tennessee Titans
Conventional wisdom says the Titans will proceed with Jake Locker as their starter and Charlie Whitehurst as their backup, but should they? A quarterbacks coach I spoke with this week placed Locker in the very lowest tier of NFL starters. New coach Ken Whisenhunt has nothing invested in Locker. Backup Charlie Whitehurst knows the offense Whisenhunt plans to install, but he's not a viable alternative.
So are the Titans best served putting all their faith in Locker, who has been hurt, and letting him have the job unopposed? Whisenhunt has generally favored big, tall quarterbacks, so the fit with Manziel might not be comfortable. But a wide range of people in the league I've spoken with said they could see it as a possibility, albeit a longer shot.
The case for the Dallas Cowboys
Go ahead and criticize owner/GM Jerry Jones for the Cowboys' record in recent seasons, but never question his team's relevance. Jones is known to covet star power, making Manziel seem like a natural choice for Dallas if the quarterback is available when the Cowboys select at No. 16 overall. Tony Romo's bad back invites the thought. But look at the Cowboys' three most recent first-round selections: center Travis Frederick, cornerback Morris Claiborne and tackle Tyron Smith. These were hardly flashy selections, although Dallas made a big move up the board to select Claiborne.
One particularly cynical line of thinking says Jones paid more than he needed to for Romo and was making a statement when he did so, and now he'll want to prove he was right by sticking with Romo. The question here would be whether Manziel would be appealing enough to set a course change.
The case for the New York Jets
The team already has Geno Smith and Michael Vick, but so what? The production for Smith through 16 starts raises concerns about his future prospects. He was only a second-round choice, so the Jets aren't overly invested in him. Vick is nearing the end and has a hard time staying healthy. An agent with no ties to Manziel said the quarterback has interviewed extremely well with teams, which could be a factor for GMs giving at least some thought to change at the position. "You never know with the Jets," the agent said. "The owner, Woody Johnson, could get involved there, too."
Three interesting fits for teams drafting outside the top 20
The case for the Philadelphia Eagles
Nick Foles went 8-2 as a starter last season with 24 touchdowns, two interceptions and a 67.4 Total QBR score in those games. That makes him untouchable, right? Not really. Coach Chip Kelly inherited Foles and fared much better than expected with him, but the QB coach referenced above thought the Eagles got above-average play from a below-average quarterback. The point is simply to avoid overreacting to one good partial season. Kelly recruited Manziel to Oregon (he verbally committed to the Ducks before ultimately choosing the Aggies), and he made some glowing comments about him recently. How could he not like Manziel for his offense? The fit would be perfect.
The case for the Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals will almost certainly draft a quarterback somewhere along the way as incumbent Andy Dalton enters the final year of his rookie deal. Dalton has been wildly inconsistent from a performance standpoint, but he is very steady emotionally and could probably handle the distractions that surely would come with adding a quarterback like Manziel in the first round. Cincinnati has done a pretty good job developing quarterbacks over the years. I suspect Manziel would be out of their comfort level and off the board well before Cincy seriously considers drafting for the position.
The case for the New England Patriots
A defensive coach I spoke with loved the thought of the Patriots somehow making a move for Manziel, no matter how improbable the likelihood. Tom Brady is 36 years old, the same age Brett Favre was when Green Bay selected Aaron Rodgers in the first round of the 2005 draft. Favre played three more years before Rodgers took over. Brady is under contract through 2017, putting the Patriots in position to follow a similar course. Brady's backup, Ryan Mallett, is entering the final year of his rookie contract.
The Patriots have seemingly relished changing up their schemes and winning through various means, even when Brady was injured. Manziel would be the ultimate project for coach Bill Belichick, who has done things his way. For example, Belichick signed Tim Tebow and then pretty much refused to talk about him. He could take a similar tack with Manziel, and if Brady struggled for a couple of games, no one would call for a change, anyway. It's certainly unlikely given the Patriots' draft position (No. 29 overall) and when Manziel figures to go off the board, but an interesting thought nonetheless.
