| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 36 | 41 | 0.00 | +4.80 |
| Season to Date | 39 | 43 | 0.00 | +7.08 |
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All plays are for 2 units
MIAMI +120 over Atlanta
Ervin Santana missed the first 10 days of the season to build up his arm strength. Since then, he hasn't missed a beat, throwing a pure quality start in each of his four starts. His 10.1 K/9 through 27.2 innings is a significant increase over his career average, as is the 16% swinging strike rate he is sporting thus far. You can’t take away what Santana has done so far but we’ll have to see a bigger sample size than a month before trusting he’s as good as his numbers say he is. Santana has a 28% line drive rate and that’s a disturbing percentage of line drives. We’re not saying he’s a fluke but let’s not forget that he's averaged a 4.19 ERA and a 4.32 xERA over his career, so it’s a bit early to expect numbers significantly different than those. In three career starts versus the Marlins, Santana is 0-2 with a 6.59 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP, including a rough start against them last season.
The Marlins outscored the Braves 18-3 in the first two games of this series. Miami is now 11-4 at home, where they’re hitting .303 against right-handers. Atlanta is hitting .213 on the road against righties. Henderson Alvarez has filthy stuff. He’s still a work in progress because he hasn’t figured out how to turn that nasty stuff into strikeouts but he’s close. Alvarez has an elite 56% groundball rate and he rarely gets taken yard (2 HR’s all of last season). He’s also one game removed from a 90-pitch clinic against the Mariners in which he faced 28 batters, one over the minimum. Despite the discrepancy in batting averages that hugely favors Miami and despite the Marlins outstanding home record, the Braves are favored here and that is incorrect. The Marlins remain undervalued and as long as that continues, we’ll continue to back them and we make no exception here.
Tampa Bay +143 over BOSTON (Game 1)
We’re playing Tampa Bay in both games of this DH because the Red Sox lit a fuse in them. Tampa did not want to play two games today. They insisted on it but after several hours of confusion and conversation with the players union and Major League Baseball officials, the Red Sox prevailed, and the teams will play two, at 1:05 and 7:10.
Rays acting player rep Ben Zobrist said that their objections — which officially included a questionable weather forecast for today and several other makeup possibilities during May and September visits — didn't matter. In short, the Rays were told by MLB that the Red Sox (and Cubs) have exceptions to the standard rules in the Basic Agreement "to basically exercise their own right to do what they want to do." And since the Red Sox wanted to play a split doubleheader, and had already issued a press release with details and put tickets on sale online hours before the Rays were told by MLB it was official, that's what will happen. "Yeah, it's frustrating," Zobrist said. "It's frustrating that the weather is bad and it's probably not going to be much better (today) from what we're looking at. And based upon our wishes, that it didn't matter what we said, that's frustrating. That we didn't have any say in it. Besides that, it won't be frustrating if we win two games (today)."
Tampa is fuming over MLB’s decision to ignore them but in truth, Boston wanted these two games today because the Rays are struggling with six losses in seven games. You can’t really blame Boston for wanting to kick a team when they’re down but these things have a way of biting back (see Brooklyn tanking so they could play the Raptors instead of Chicago). You don’t wake up a sleeping dog but that’s precisely what the Red Sox may have done here and so we’ll step in and play Tampa in both games.
Tampa Bay +101 over BOSTON (Game 2)
Felix Doubront starts the second game of the DH and there is no way he should be favored over Chris Archer. Doubront limped to the finish line last year (9.77 ERA in September) as his second half skills fell flat for the second straight season. The bigger red flag here was his strikeout rate plunge, making an already shaky control an even bigger liability. Doubront has an 11/16 BB/K split in 24 innings this season. His swinging strike rate is 4%. His ERA is up to 6.00 and his xERA over his last three starts is 8.67. As soon as the Red Sox have a replacement, Doubront is heading to the bullpen where he’ll likely be a mop up man or a long-relief guy. His skills are brutal.
Chris Archer is 2-1 in five starts with an ERA of 4.11. That’s about as average as it gets but there is nothing average at all about Archer. Archer has walked five and struck out 25 in 31 innings. He has an elite 51%/26% groundball/fly-ball split. He’s been hurt by a low 66% strand rate but as that inevitably goes up, his ERA will come down. Archer made good on his pedigree in the second half last year and it may have been an abbreviated coming out party. He already owns one of the top heaters in the game and if he's able maintain the solid command he’s displayed so far it's reasonable to project a full season of ample Ks and an ERA close to his '13 xERA of 3.40. Buy-low targets don’t get much better than Archer and we’re on it.
COLORADO/N.Y. Mets over 9½ +102
Juan Nicasio looks like one pitcher when facing RH batters and another against lefties. His command is excellent against RHers with 6 k’s per nine and 1.4 walks per nine. However, Nicasio has horrible numbers against lefties and always has. In fact, Nicasio’s xERA against lefthanders over the past two seasons is a disturbing 8.22. Dude has never been able to get lefties out consistently and he’ll face a left-handed heavy lineup against here against the Mets. New York will send up six left-handed bats to face Nicasio and that does not include any pinch-hitters that will step into the batter’s box in place of Bartolo Colon. Expect New York to tee off against Nicasio’s average stuff.
Colon at Coors Field is a disaster waiting to happen. Aside from not missing many bats with his 7% swinging strike rate, Colon has a fly-ball bias profile. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate sits at 36%/26%38%. He’ll now face a Rockies lineup at this launching pad that is hitting a sick .372 against righties at Coors. In fact, Colorado has struck out just 41 times this entire season in 310 plate appearances against right-handers. That’s the best mark in the NL and second best mark in the league. Both these pitchers are going to have to perform well to keep this game under the number and that’s something that’s unlikely to occur
