Best Weekend Bets For Prem League

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Best Prem bets of the weekend

<CITE class=source>By James Eastham
ESPN INSIDER
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What a remarkable EPL season this is turning out to be -- with just two matchdays to go, all the major issues at the top and foot of the table are still undecided. Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea’s three-way title race continues, European places are still up for grabs and the relegation battle remains thrillingly uncertain.


After 14 winners in 19 Prem League picks, here’s a look at the best bets for this weekend’s Prem fixtures.


Everton (home) vs. Manchester City

Asian handicap: Everton +0.75 (+105) vs. Manchester City -0.75 (-105)
3-way line: Everton +400 / Manchester City -133 / Draw +300
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 87 percent Man City
Total: 3 (Over -105, Under +100)


The pre-match chatter on this fixture has focused on one team only, and that’s Manchester City. Liverpool’s 2-0 home defeat to Chelsea last weekend means City are now in the driving seat in the title race – collect maximum points from their last three matches and, unless Liverpool win their final two games by some huge margins (Liverpool’s goal difference is currently inferior to City’s by eight goals), City should be crowned champions. All well and good – but the sense that City are on course for their second title in three seasons appears to have infected the odds on this game. Do City really deserve a line as short as minus-133 to claim all three points?

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Let’s not forget fifth-placed Everton have their own reasons to be motivated, namely to maintain the pressure on fourth-placed Arsenal for as long as they can and retain or increase their three-point lead over sixth-placed Tottenham. Then there’s the small matter of Everton’s home record -- the Toffees are 13-2-3 overall, 5-1-0 from their last six matches and 2-1-0 against sides currently above them in the table. Everton’s strong home figures and high motivation make the visitors’ price difficult to justify.


The pick: Everton +0.75 Asian handicap (+105)

West Ham Utd (home) vs. Tottenham

Asian handicap: West Ham +0.5 (+105) vs. Tottenham -0.5 (-110)
3-way line: West Ham +350 / Tottenham -110 / Draw +280
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 40 percent draw
Total: 2.75 (Over -105, Under +100)

I was surprised to find the total line around even for this game. With two matches to play West Ham are almost certain to avoid relegation but their manager Sam Allardyce is the sort of pragmatist that will take no chances until Prem League safety is mathematically secured. That’s why I expect the Hammers to take a cautious approach on this final home outing of the season. Protecting their own goal will be paramount and I imagine Allardyce would be happy with a draw as the eventual outcome. The onus is therefore on Tottenham to open up the home defense, and I would question the extent to which Tim Sherwood’s visitors are capable of doing that at the moment.

Their motivation levels should be high as they’re chasing a European place but their recent away attacking performances have been below-average -- leaving aside the freakish 3-3 draw at West Brom on April 12, Spurs have scored in just one of four away games since mid-February. Back low goals here.

The pick: Under 2.75 goals (-105)

Aston Villa (home) vs. Hull City

Asian handicap: Aston Villa -0.25 (+110) vs. Hull +0.25 (-111)
3-way line: Aston Villa +145 / Hull +225 / Draw +230
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 66 percent draw
Total: 2.25 (Over +110, Under -118)

If you look at the season-long stats on these two sides, you would back a low-scoring encounter. Ten of Aston Villa’s 18 home games have featured under 2.5 goals (although their goals-per-game average is actually 2.61) and 11 of Hull’s 17 away games have also contained three goals or fewer (average goals per game 2.47). But I expect this to be a higher-scoring clash than those figures suggest because there is a lot at stake and a goal for either side would probably open the door to an attacking free-for-all.
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[h=4]Asian handicap[/h]The Asian handicap betting eliminates the draw and provides the possibility of getting your stakes back (depending on the bet you place). For example, if you back a team at 0 Asian handicap, your stakes will be returned if the game ends in a draw (as the handicap has been equaled).
If you back a team -1 Asian handicap and the team you've backed wins by a single goal, your stakes will be returned (as the handicap has been equaled). This safety net of having your stakes returned is the primary difference between Asian handicap and handicap betting.
PickCenter
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Sitting just three points above the relegation zone, Aston Villa are still in trouble, and the same applies to Hull, albeit to a lesser extent (the visitors are five points clear of the bottom three). Hull’s trip to Fulham last weekend was typical of the sort of nervous, high-scoring encounter you see at the bottom end of the Prem at this time of season: the game was 0-0 at half-time, Fulham took the lead in the 56th minute and then the game completely opened up, finishing 2-2. I can see the same thing happening here. With our pick you’ll make money if there are three or more goals and lose only half your stakes if there are exactly two goals.


The pick: Over 2.25 goals (+110)

Newcastle United (home) vs. Cardiff City

Asian handicap: Newcastle -0.5 (+110) vs. Cardiff +0.5 (-111)
3-way line: Newcastle +110 / Cardiff +300 / Draw +260
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 24 percent draw
Total: 2.75 (Over -111, Under +100)

It is surprising to find Newcastle such short-priced favorites to beat Cardiff this weekend for a couple of reasons. The first is Newcastle’s miserable form and the cloud hanging over the club at the moment. The Magpies have lost their last six matches, managing just one goal during that dismal run, and also lost seven of their last nine matches at home venue St James’ Park, where the mood is dark and fans have called for the head of manager Alan Pardew. On the basis of Newcastle’s form alone, it’s difficult to justify the home team’s price of plus-110 to win the match. Cardiff’s form is better -- they’ve picked up five points from their last six matches -- and the fact the relegation-threatened visitors, unlike Newcastle, have something to play for is also worth taking into account. There is little in Cardiff’s season-long away figures (2-12-4) to suggest an away win is likely, but the visitors are worth backing to avoid defeat.

The pick: Cardiff +0.5 Asian handicap (-111)

Stoke City (home) vs. Fulham

Asian handicap: Stoke City -0.75 (-110) vs. Fulham +0.75 (+105)
3-way line: Stoke City -143 / Fulham +500 / Draw +280
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 18 percent draw
Total: 2.5 (Over -105, Under -105)

I expect Fulham to set the tone in this match because they’re the only one of the two sides with something to play for. Locked in the relegation zone (19th) while Stoke sit comfortably in mid-table, Fulham have to play to win, and that should lead to an open game. Stoke, keen to entertain their fans in their final home game of the season, should be only too pleased to play this way. Twenty-four of Fulham’s 36 games and 11 of their 18 away games have contained three or more goals this season. A gung-ho approach from the visitors is virtually a necessity as they are running out of time to save themselves. I expect a high-scoring encounter.

The pick: Over 2.5 goals (-105)

James Eastham is a soccer betting specialist for the Hong Kong Jockey Club and Betfair. He worked previously as an EPL tipster for The New Paper (Singapore) and The Guardian Online (U.K.).
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