Service Plays Saturday 5/3/14

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Kentucky Derby Winner - California Chrome

Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella


Game: Winner at Non Opponent May 3 2014 6:20PM
Prediction: Winner
Reason: Just like former Kentucky Derby winners Animal Kingdom (2010) and Super Saver (2011), Danza (#4) will be making his 3rd start of his 3 year old season in the Kentucky Derby. Also like Super Saver, Danza is trainer by Todd Pletcher and made his previous start in the Arkansas Derby (Grade I), but while Super Saver finished 3rd, Danza won the Arkansas Derby by 4 lengths.


Danza broke his maiden in his career debut at Belmont as a 2 year old and then immediately jumped into the Saratoga Special, a Grade II stakes race at Saratoga. That was a 6 furlong sprint and he closed fast to finished 3rd, beaten by less than a length by the speedy Corfu. After that race, he was put on the shelf for an 8 month layoff and returned this spring in an Allowance race at Gulfstream Park in Miami. That was just a prep at 7 furlongs and then Pletcher moved him into his first 2 turn route race in the $1 million Arkansas Derby.


Even though it was Danza's first route, he won the 1 1/8 mile race by more than 4 lengths. Interestingly, he was only .13 seconds slower than the stake race run the race before that same day that was won by multiple-grade I stake winner, Will Take Charge. Will Take Charge is an older 4 year old, who was one of the favorites in the Breeder's Cup Classic (Grade I). The runner up to Will Take Charge was Revolutionary, who you may know from finishing 3rd in last year's Kentucky Derby to Orb!


It was no surprise that Danza won the 1 1/8 Arkansas Derby, as his 2 siblings are winners at even longer distances, with his brother, Consider Yourself, winning at 1 3/8 miles in a graded stakes in Britian and his other brother winning this year's Tokoyo Derby at Santa Anita (Southern California) at 1 1/2 miles- both of those wins are longer distances than the Kentucky Derby's 1 1/4 miles. With Danza fresh, and rounding into form for a former Derby-winning trainer like Todd Pletcher, we'll take the BIG PRICE on him this Saturday!


The Play: DANZA (#4) to Win & Place.


Bonus Exactas:
5-Horse Exacta BOX: 4-5-11-16-19
Using Danza (#4), California Chrome (#5), Dance with Fate (#12), Commanding Curve (#17) and Wicked Strong (#20)
NOTE: This is a $20 ticket for a $1 Exacta Box


Exacta Key: Play #4 Danza for first and second with ALL horses (#4 with ALL & ALL with #4)
Note: These are $19 Exacta Keys for a $1 ticket, total cost is $38 for first and second place.
Bet this Pick at one of our Recommended Online Sportsbooks

Game of the Day: Warriors at Clippers

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-7, 209.5)

Series tied 3-3.

The Golden State Warriors found just enough in themselves at home to force a Game 7 but might not have a full compliment of weapons by the time they get there. The Warriors hope center Jermaine O’Neal, who suffered a sprained right knee in the second quarter of Game 6, will be able to go when they visit the Los Angeles Clippers for Game 7 on Saturday. The Clippers had some trouble adjusting to a tightly-called Game 6 and Blake Griffin fouled out late.

Golden State is already without starting center Andrew Bogut due to a fractured rib and has been using a smaller lineup with David Lee in the middle and O’Neal coming off the bench while Draymond Green takes on a bigger role guarding Griffin. O’Neal was not happy about the play that knocked him out of the game, telling USA Today, “It’s just a dirty play, to be quite honest. I mean, I’m not going to go try to dive into somebody’s legs. It wasn’t a scramble for the ball.” The Warriors gave more time to Marreese Speights off the bench when O’Neal went down and the veteran big man responded with 12 points and six rebounds.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles)

LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as big as 7.5-point favorites and were bet down to -7. The total opened 209.5.

INJURY REPORT: Warriors - J. O'Neal (Ques. - Knee). Clippers - H.Turkoglu (Ques. - Back)

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "With everything that has surrounded the Clippers during this series, I see them coming up extremely focused to close this series out. So far we are seeing 65 percent of the action backing the Clippers to win outright, while the 6.5-point spread is seeing good two-way action." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Clippers benefited from an emotionally-charged home crowd in Game 5 and it obviously affected the officials as Los Angeles had a 41-to-19 free-throw edge in their 113-103 win. The whistle was more balanced on the road in Game 6 as the Warriors held a 37-to-33 free-throw edge in their 100-99 victory. It will be interesting to see if the Clippers can use a strong home-court edge to once again influence the officials in Game 7 Saturday night. - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Stephen Curry had a lot of questions to answer after a Game 5 loss in which he turned the ball over eight time and finished with 10 field-goal attempts. The All-Star guard was noticeably more aggressive in Game 6 and attempted 12 shots in the first quarter alone to keep his team in the game before Green, Speights and David Lee started to provide some support. Lee and Green both battled foul trouble, with Lee drawing his sixth early in the fourth quarter, but still managed to play strong defense on Griffin (8-of-24) and win the scrambles down low. “You know, it’s a battle,” Green told reporters. “We knew that coming into the series. For the last two years, as long as I’ve been here, it’s been a battle every time we played this team, and it’s grown into a rivalry.”

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Chris Paul is banged up with right hamstring and left hand issues and battled foul trouble throughout Game 6, finishing with nine points, eight assists, four turnovers and five fouls. “(Paul) is dealing with a lot of stuff, but, listen, he’s on the floor and Golden State doesn’t care, bottom line,” coach Doc Rivers said. “He does have injuries, and there is no doubt about that. I’m sure they have some too, but, listen, I think once you’re on the floor, you’re on the floor.” Los Angeles got another big game from DeAndre Jordan on Thursday with nine points, 19 rebounds and four blocks and Matt Barnes stepped up with a double-double, but the off nights from Griffin and Paul kept the Clippers from getting over the hump in the 100-99 setback.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles.
* Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
* Warriors are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 67 percent of action is on Golden State while 67 percent is on the Over.

Cappers Access

Pacers -6
Orioles -120
Royals +105

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/3/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 5/3/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (May 2)
All three teams facing elimination Thursday night survived, setting up three, Game #7s on Saturday. The Pacers (East’s No. 1 seed) forced a Game #7 with some clutch play down the stretch although quite frankly, the Hawks basically “spit out the bit”. Teague’s jumper with 3:15 left in the game gave Atlanta a 5-point lead but the Hawks unraveled after that. Atlanta’ ONLY basket during the game’s final three minutes came on a Williams’ layup (part of a three-point play) with 12 seconds remaining. However, the game was over by then, as the Pacers would outscore the Hawks 16-4 after trailing 84-79. Did the Hawks miss their “best chance” at putting Indiana away?

The headlines coming out of Oklahoma City prior to Game #6 screamed, “Mr. Unreliable,” in reference to the likely league-MVP. Durant and his teammates responded with a 56-41 halftime lead over the Grizzlies, pretty much erasing any chance that a FIFTH straight game in this series would go into overtime. The Thunder (the West’s No. 2 seed) never looked back in a 104-84 win, as Durant scored 36 points (critics may point out that he was 0 of 6 on threes?), while Westbrook chipped in 25-9-5. The Grizzlies played an AWFUL offensive game, shooting 37.3% overall, including a dismal 4 of 17 on threes. Starting guards Conley and Lee were 4 of 17 from the floor, totaling only NINE points. Like Atlanta, did Memphis lose its best chance to win this series? Let’s NOT forget though, that both the Hawks and Grizzlies have won TWO of their three road games so far!

The Clippers and Warriors are also headed for a Game #7, as Golden State held on to edge Los Angeles by one. The Warriors led 96-89 with just over two minutes left but almost let the game get away. Barnes’ hit an improbable three-pointer with just under two seconds left (cutting it to 100-99) and Curry was fouled immediately. However, the man who has converted 89.6% of his free throws in 336 career regular season games, missed them BOTH! It may have mattered to some, as while the Clippers began the day as a 1 1/2-point choice, they closed (some places) as a one-point dog. Curry led the Warriors with 24 but efforts by Iquodala (15) and Green (14 & 14), were huge,. Note that Iquodala has now averaged 18.3 PPG the last three games, after averaging just 7.7 PPG the first three. Green, inserted in the starting lineup for Game #4, now has back-to-back double-doubles (24 points and 25 rebounds).

Heading into Friday’s three, Game #6 contests, home teams are 19-23 SU, a winning percentage of .452. Home teams are a ‘money-burning’ 14-25-3 ATS (35.9%) or minus-13.5 net games. “Zig-Zaggers,” who have rarely shown a profit for some time now in the NBA postseason, are “stuffing their pockets,” at the moment, as last night’s 3-0 mark made it a second straight “perfect night,” upping their record to a quite amazing 22-9-3 ATS, or plus-12.1 net games (historical perspective will come after all first-round games are complete). Talk about “stuffing one’s pockets,” over bettors continue to “play lucky.” OKC/Memphis barely went over, preventing a 3-0 night for under players. However, there is nothing “lucky” or “unlucky” about the fact that there have been 27 overs and just 15 unders through 42 games.

ESPN2 gets the first of three possible elimination games for Friday, as the Raptors are in Brooklyn for a Game #6 with the Nets (7:00 ET). Toronto has blown HUGE leads in each of the last two games, only to find a way to win back-to-back contests, giving them a 3-2 series lead. The Nets are favored by 4 1/2 points (total is 192). ESPN takes over the doubleheader business tonight from TNT, starting with San Antonio at Dallas (8:00 ET). Like in the first game, the home team is facing elimination, down 3-2. The Spurs are favored by three points (total is 1971 1/2 ) and if San Antonio wins (but doesn’t cover), the Spurs would win the series WITHOUT covering a single game (Mavs are 5-0 ATS in this series, so far). Has that ever happened before? The late game is Houston at Portland (10:30 ET) and unlike the first two matchups, the home team is up 3-2 in this series. The Blazers are favored by four points (total is 213).
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Eastern Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#537 ATLANTA @ #538 INDIANA
(TV: 5:30 PM EST, TNT, SportSouth Atlanta - Line: Pacers -6, Total: 186.5) - The Indiana Pacers keep finding ways to survive in their first-round series and now have a chance to advance. The Pacers will attempt to become the first team in the series to win back-to-back games when they host the Atlanta Hawks in a decisive Game #7 of the Eastern Conference series on Saturday. The Hawks held a lead late in Game #6 but Indiana ended the contest on a 16-4 run to earn a 95-88 win and send the series back to Indianapolis.

The top-seeded Pacers have had a hard time finding any sort of consistency in the series and made several big changes to the rotation in Game #6, giving Chris Copeland and Ian Mahinmi more time while limiting Roy Hibbert to 12 minutes and even getting Rasual Butler up off the bench. Atlanta stayed in the game thanks to the continued strong play of Jeff Teague but could not get the 3-pointers to fall quite as often as they had earlier in the series. Atlanta shot just 35.8 percent in Game #6 and failed to hit at least 10 3-pointers for the first time in the series.

•ABOUT THE HAWKS (41-47 SU, 41-46-1 ATS): Atlanta should not be intimidated by its surroundings after winning twice at Indiana already in the series, including a Game #5 drubbing in which the Hawks led by as much as 30 points. Atlanta fell in love with the 3-point shot a bit too much early in Game #6, hoisting up 22 in the first half alone, and did not start fully attacking with Teague until the third quarter. “We got stuck on the defensive end,” Teague told reporters. “We got stuck and stopped playing with a lot of pace and moving. When you do that it’s easy to guard.” Paul Millsap hauled in 18 rebounds in Game #6 but was limited to 16 points on 4-of-13 shooting as Indiana threw different looks at him defensively.

•ABOUT THE PACERS (59-29 SU, 41-46-1 ATS): David West is the veteran leader for Indiana and he stepped up in a big way in Game #6, finally providing Paul George with a nice scoring compliment and putting up 12 of his 24 points in the fourth quarter while adding 11 rebounds and six assists. West’s jumper with 46 seconds left provided the go-ahead points. “(West) has poise and composure,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “When a team is making a run like that and you’re dealing with an eight seed trying to knock off a one seed in their building and the place is erupting on every play, (it’s great to have) somebody out there with that level of composure. He just really settles everyone down.” George Hill also stepped up with 14 points and has hit multiple 3-pointers in each of the last three games.

•PREGAME NOTES: The Hawks are 0-8 all-time in road Game #7s.... Indiana is trying to avoid becoming the sixth No. 1 seed to lose a first-round series.... Atlanta C Pero Antic is shooting 18.9 percent from the field in the series, including 3-of-22 from 3-point range.... The Pacers are 11-25 against the spread (30.5) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season.... The Hawks are 16-29 versus the spread (35.5%) versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 76% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the spread 587 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 385 times. *EDGE against the spread =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, INDIANA won the game straight up 557 times, while ATLANTA won 422 times. In 1000 simulated games, 554 games went under the total, while 446 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, ATLANTA covered the first half line 555 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 416 times. *EDGE against first half line =ATLANTA. In 1000 simulated games, 526 games went under first half total, while 438 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ATLANTA is 43-35 against the spread versus INDIANA since 1996.
--INDIANA is 41-39 straight up against ATLANTA since 1996.
--40 of 76 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--ATLANTA is 51-27 versus the first half line when playing against INDIANA since 1996.
--39 of 77 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings in Indiana.
--Hawks are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.

--Underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
--Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

--Pacers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
--Pacers are 1-8 ATS L9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
--Pacers are 1-8 ATS L9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (ATLANTA) - a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (33%-36.5%) after 42+ games.
(144-88 since 1996.) (62.1%, +47.2 units. Rating = 2*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.9, Opponent 50 (Average first half point differential = -2.2)

The situation's record this season is: (12-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-18).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-26).
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Western Conference Playoffs - Round #1

#541 MEMPHIS @ #542 OKLAHOMA CITY
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, TNT, SportSouth Memphis, FSN Oklahoma City - Line: Thunder -7.5, Total: 185.5) - The status of Memphis point guard Mike Conley might not be known until shortly before tip-off as the Grizzlies and host Oklahoma City Thunder square off on Saturday in Game #7 of the first-round Western Conference series. Conley strained his right hamstring in Thursday’s Game #6 and stated he would undergo a heavy regimen of treatment in hopes of being on the floor for the decisive game. The Grizzlies will be without forward Zach Randolph due to a suspension.

The Thunder evened the series with a convincing 104-84 victory on Thursday as Kevin Durant regained his shooting stroke and scored 36 points for his fourth 30-point outing of the series. Durant and running mate Russell Westbrook have experienced bouts of inefficiency in the series while attempting to carry the team offensively. Memphis guard Tony Allen has often been the defender hounding Durant and he was highly despondent after the Grizzlies failed to clinch the series at home. “Now we’ve shot ourselves in the foot and we have to go to a hostile environment now and pretty much show were our heart is at,” Allen told reporters. Randolph was punished by the league for punching Oklahoma City's Steven Adams in the jaw in Game #6.

•ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (53-35 SU, 39-45-4 ATS): Memphis was already shorthanded at the point with Nick Calathes serving a suspension for violating the league’s anti-drug policy and will be further depleted if Conley can’t play. Veteran Beno Udrih is the lone other option and he had a poor outing in Game #6, scoring two points on 1-of-8 shooting in 20 minutes. Udrih averaged 13 points on 11-of-14 shooting over a two-game stretch early in the series but is only 6-of-23 from the field in the other four games. Conley insists he will play in Game #7 and the Grizzlies will be hoping that occurs because asking Udrih to play 40 minutes and defend Westbrook is a dicey request.

•ABOUT THE THUNDER (62-26 SU, 45-40-3 ATS): Durant was billed as “Mr. Unreliable” by an Oklahoma City newspaper prior to Game #6 and came out on fire with 14 first-quarter points en route to matching his best point total in the series. He deflected the criticism as part of the territory but his teammates and coaches were very unhappy with the portrayal. “You don’t get to his level as an NBA player and (become) a great player as he is to have other people motivate you,” Thunder coach Scott Brooks said. “He’s self-motivated. He’s a tremendous kid and does everything for his team and for our organization. We’re proud of him because he gives everything he has.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Conley had just five points on 2-of-10 shooting before being injured after averaging 17.2 points over the first five games.... Oklahoma City blocked 11 shots in Game #6 – five by Adams and four by PF Serge Ibaka.... Randolph had three double-doubles in the series but shot just 40.4 percent from the field.... The Grizzlies are 58-38 versus the spread (60.4%) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.... The Thunder are 6-16 against the spread (27.2%) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the spread 514 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the spread 486 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, OKLAHOMA CITY won the game straight up 653 times, while MEMPHIS won 327 times. In 1000 simulated games, 775 games went over the total, while 225 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MEMPHIS covered the first half line 486 times, while OKLAHOMA CITY covered the first half line 476 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 690 games went over first half total, while 310 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-38 against the spread versus MEMPHIS since 1996.
--OKLAHOMA CITY is 55-30 straight up against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--51 of 85 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--OKLAHOMA CITY is 46-39 versus the first half line when playing against MEMPHIS since 1996.
--46 of 85 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Grizzlies are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Grizzlies are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Oklahoma City.

--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Over is 16-6 in the last 22 meetings in Oklahoma City.

--Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS L6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
--Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 Saturday games.
--Under is 5-1 in Grizzlies L6 games following a double-digit loss at home.

--Thunder are 1-5 ATS L6 when their opponent allowed 100 points or more LG.
--Under is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 Saturday games.
--Over is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (MEMPHIS) - average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more.
(28-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.3%, +25.6 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +102.1
The average score in these games was: Team 99.7, Opponent 92.5 (Average point differential = +7.2)

The situation's record this season is: (6-0, +6.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2, +14.5 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (74-29, +29.9 units).
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#543 GOLDEN STATE @ #544 LA CLIPPERS
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, TNT, CSN Bay Area Golden State, Prime Ticket Los Angeles - Line: Clippers -7, Total: 209.5) - The Golden State Warriors found just enough in themselves at home to force a Game #7 but might not have a full complement of weapons by the time they get there. The Warriors hope center Jermaine O’Neal, who suffered a sprained right knee in the second quarter of Game #6, will be able to go when they visit the Los Angeles Clippers for Game #7 on Saturday. The Clippers had some trouble adjusting to a tightly-called Game #6 and Blake Griffin fouled out late.

Golden State is already without starting center Andrew Bogut due to a fractured rib and has been using a smaller lineup with David Lee in the middle and O’Neal coming off the bench while Draymond Green takes on a bigger role guarding Griffin. O’Neal was not happy about the play that knocked him out of the game, telling USA Today, “It’s just a dirty play, to be quite honest. I mean, I’m not going to go try to dive into somebody’s legs. It wasn’t a scramble for the ball.” The Warriors gave more time to Marreese Speights off the bench when O’Neal went down and the veteran big man responded with 12 points and six rebounds.

•ABOUT THE WARRIORS (54-34 SU, 45-40-3 ATS): Stephen Curry had a lot of questions to answer after a Game #5 loss in which he turned the ball over eight time and finished with 10 field-goal attempts. The All-Star guard was noticeably more aggressive in Game #6 and attempted 12 shots in the first quarter alone to keep his team in the game before Green, Speights and David Lee started to provide some support. Lee and Green both battled foul trouble, with Lee drawing his sixth early in the fourth quarter, but still managed to play strong defense on Griffin (8-of-24) and win the scrambles down low. “You know, it’s a battle,” Green told reporters. “We knew that coming into the series. For the last two years, as long as I’ve been here, it’s been a battle every time we played this team, and it’s grown into a rivalry.”

•ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (60-28 SU, 48-39-1 ATS): Chris Paul is banged up with right hamstring and left hand issues and battled foul trouble throughout Game #6, finishing with nine points, eight assists, four turnovers and five fouls. “(Paul) is dealing with a lot of stuff, but, listen, he’s on the floor and Golden State doesn’t care, bottom line,” coach Doc Rivers said. “He does have injuries, and there is no doubt about that. I’m sure they have some too, but, listen, I think once you’re on the floor, you’re on the floor.” Los Angeles got another big game from DeAndre Jordan on Thursday with nine points, 19 rebounds and four blocks and Matt Barnes stepped up with a double-double, but the off nights from Griffin and Paul kept the Clippers from getting over the hump in the 100-99 setback.

•PREGAME NOTES: The teams have played 10 times this season, with each winning five.... Green has posted three double-doubles in the series and added five steals to his 14 points and 14 boards in Game #6.... Jordan is averaging 14.7 rebounds and 4.2 blocks in the series while shooting 71 percent from the floor.... The Warriors are 39-24 against the spread (61.9%) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game over the last two seasons.... The Clippers are 12-23 versus the spread (34.2%) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the spread 533 times, while LA CLIPPERS covered the spread 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, LA CLIPPERS won the game straight up 613 times, while GOLDEN STATE won 366 times. In 1000 simulated games, 528 games went under the total, while 472 games went over the total. *No EDGE.

-- In 1000 simulated games, GOLDEN STATE covered the first half line 533 times, while LA CLIPPERS covered the first half line 467 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 531 games went under first half total, while 469 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LA CLIPPERS is 37-37 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--LA CLIPPERS is 42-35 straight up against GOLDEN STATE since 1996.
--38 of 75 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--GOLDEN STATE is 39-37 versus the first half line when playing against LA CLIPPERS since 1996.
--43 of 74 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
--Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.

--Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Warriors are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 road games.
--Over is 5-0 in Warriors L5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
--Over is 4-0 in Warriors L4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

--Over is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 home games.
--Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 6-1 in Clippers L7 after allowing 100 points or more.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - Road teams versus the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure defense (14.5-16.5 TO's).
(52-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.3%, +30.6 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -119.2
The average score in these games was: Team 105.2, Opponent 100.3 (Average point differential = +5)

The situation's record this season is: (14-6, +3.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-16, +21.1 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (166-111, +4 units).
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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- This is Arrieta's first '14 start; he was 2-0, 1.38 in his last two starts LY.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 0.83 in his last three starts. Roark is 1-0, 1.23 in his last three.
-- Teheran is 1-0, 0.38 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 2-0, 0.35 in his last three starts. Gallardo is 2-0, 1.91 in six starts this season.
-- Morales is 3-0, 3.00 in his last three starts. Mejia is 3-0, 3.49 in five starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.

-- Tanaka is 2-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
-- Chen is 3-0, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma is making first '14 start; he was 2-0, 0.76 in his last five starts LY. Keuchel is 2-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.
-- Carroll allowed two runs in 7.1 IP in winning his MLB debut.
-- Richards is 2-0, 2.53 in five starts this season. Harrison allowed two runs in six IP in his first '14 start.

-- Dickey is 1-0, 2.92 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Wacha is 0-2, 4.15 in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 1-2, 5.24 in four starts this season. Turner allowed five runs in six IP in his first '14 start, before going on DL.
-- Vogelsong is 0-1, 8.44 in his two road starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-5, 5.31 in his first six starts.

-- Rays lost last four Odorizzi starts (0-2, 9.00).
-- Lester is 0-2, 9.26 in his last couple starts. Oakland is 0-4 when Milone starts (0-2, 5.70).
-- Correia is 0-3, 9.43 in his last four starts.
-- Masterson is 0-1, 7.31 in his last five starts.
-- Smyly is 0-1, 6.00 in two starts this season. Duffy is making first '14 start; he was 2-0, 1.31 in his last four starts LY.

-- Liriano is 0-3, 5.14 in his last five starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Wacha 1-6; Arrieta 0-0
-- Roark 1-5; Burnett 1-6
-- Vogelsong 1-5; Teheran 1-6
-- Maholm 1-4; Turner 1-1
-- Gallardo 2-6; Cueto 1-6
-- Mejia 0-5; Morales 1-5
-- McCarthy 2-6; Kennedy 2-6

-- Odorizzi 0-5; Tanaka 1-5
-- Milone 2-4; Lester 1-6
-- Chen 1-5; Correia 0-5
-- Iwakuma 0-0; Keuchel 1-5
-- Carroll 0-1; Masterson 2-6
-- Smyly 1-2; Duffy 0-0
-- Harrison 0-1; Richards 0-5

-- Dickey 1-6; Liriano 3-6

Totals
-- Nine of last twelve games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Nine of twelve Washington road games went over.
-- Seven of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Dodger games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Colorado games went over total.
-- Under is 6-0-1 in San Diego's last seven home games.

-- Four of last six Pittsburgh home games stayed under.

-- Eight of last twelve Bronx home games stayed under; 12 of last 15Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Five of last six White Sox road games went over.
-- Six of last nine games at Fenway Park went over.
-- Five of Kansas City's last six home games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Baltimore road games went over.
-- Five of last six Seattle games went over the total.
-- Nine of twelve Angel home games went over total.

Hot teams
-- Cubs won three of their last four games.
-- Nationals won five of their last six games.
-- Milwaukee won 12 of its 15 road games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their 15 road games. Miami won six of its last seven home games.
-- Giants won seven of their last eight games.
-- Colorado won seven of its last nine home games.
-- Arizona won its last three road games.


-- A's won 12 of their 17 road games.
-- Detroit won five of its last six games.
-- Orioles won seven of their last ten games.
-- Mariners won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won four of their last five home games.

Cold teams
-- St Louis lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Phillies lost four of their last five home games.
-- Cincinnati lost five of its last seven games.
-- Braves lost last four games, but won eight of last ten at home.
-- Mets lost last two nights, giving up 17 runs.
-- Padres lost eight of their last twelve games.

-- Pirates lost ten of their last 13 games. Toronto lost seven of its last nine.

-- Bronx lost its last three games, outscored 20-10.
-- Indians lost six of last seven games, but won five of last six at home. White Sox are 5-9 on the road.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last eight home games.
-- Minnesota lost five of its last six games.
-- Kansas City is 5-7 in its last twelve games.
-- Astros lost eleven of their last fifteen home games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.

Umpires
-- StL-Chi-- Three of four Vanover games went over total.
-- Wsh-Phil-- Last four Gonzalez games went over total.
-- SF-Atl-- Three of four Fagan games stayed under total.
-- LA-Mia-- All five Iassogna games went over the total.
-- Mil-Cin-- Road team won all six Dimuro games; under is 3-1-1 in last five.
-- NY-Col-- Favorites won five of last six Tumpane games.
-- Az-SD-- Under is 15-5-1 in last 21 Wolf games.

-- TB-NY-- All five Eddings games stayed under total.
-- A's-Bos-- Road teams won three of four Reyburn games.
-- Blt-Minn-- Underdogs won three of last five Nelson games.
-- Sea-Hst-- Underdogs won four of six Hoye games.
-- Chi-Cle-- Underdogs won three of four Guccione games.
-- Det-KC-- Three of last four Tichenor games went over.
-- Tex-LA-- All three LBarrett games went over the total.

-- Tor-Pitt-- Underdogs won three of last four Hamari games.

Today's MLB Picks

NY Mets at Colorado

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Mets look to break through with a win today and come into the contest carrying a 4-0 record in Jenrry Mejia's last 4 starts as an underdog. New York is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

Today's NBA Picks

Golden State at LA Clippers

The Clippers look to clinch the series tonight and come into the contest with a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games against the Warriors in Los Angeles. LA is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-7). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

Today's NHL Picks

Los Angeles at Anaheim

The Kings open up their series with Anaheim tonight and come into the contest with an 11-5 record in their last 16 road games. Los Angeles is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+115). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Saturday

Marlins +105

Orioles -120

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play SAT Over the total 208 1/2 GState/Clippers

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Spurs (-3) on Friday and likes Candy Boy in the Kentucky Derby ($25 win and place) on Saturday.

The deficit is 265 sirignanos.

Chase Diamond

10* Arizona +127

Soccer Crusher
Colon + Estudiantes LP UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 565-20, won last 4 game and 2 pushes)
Overall Record: 565-477-83

tgunn11 said:

Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates -120 over Toronto Blue Jays
(System Record: 19-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 19-13

Click to expand...

Rest of Crusher's Plays Today:

Minnesota Twins + Baltimore Orioles OVER 9
Miami Marlins +103 over LA Dodgers
Kansas City Royals -105 over Detroit

Boston Bruins + Montreal Canadiens OVER 5
Los Angeles Kings + Anaheim Ducks UNDER 5
Boston Bruins -193 over Montreal

Golden State Warriors +7 over LA Clippers
Atlanta Hawks +6 over Indiana Pacers
Oklahoma City Thunder + Memphis Grizzlies OVER 185