| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 1 | 0.00 | +3.12 |
| Last 30 Days | 40 | 38 | 0.00 | +20.86 |
| Season to Date | 45 | 44 | 0.00 | +19.52 |
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All plays are 2 units & listed pitchers must go.
MIAMI +106 over Los Angeles
Paul Maholm has appeared in seven games this year with four of those coming as a starter. In 25 frames he has a BB/K split of 9/9. He comes in with an alarming 1.50 WHIP to go along with his 4.74 ERA, which is fully supported by his 4.84 xERA. Maholm raised some eyebrows a year ago when he sailed through the first half despite his inability to reverse his 2012 hr/f spike. July wrist injury launched his second half slide slide, shelving him for a month. September elbow soreness didn't help and things have not got better since. Maholm has lost his command. He has a brutally awful 4% swinging strike rate and he’ll now face a Marlins team that is leading the Majors at home against lefties with a batting average of .321.
The Marlins keep rewarding us and we’re not about to back off them here. After defeating the Dodgers last night, the Fish are 13-4 at home. They have now won seven straight at Marlins Park while scoring 47 runs. They Marlins have scored five runs or more in six of those seven games. Jacob Turner complained of shoulder pain after hitting in the batting cage before his start on April 9th and was subsequently scratched from that start and has been out ever since. This is his first start back and so we’ll give him a wash in his only start this year back on April 3. Turner can be labeled as a failed prospect at this point in his career but there are reasons to keep him on your radar. He gained nearly one mph on his four-seam fastball in 2013. His K rate has increased from 5.9 K/9 to 6.3 and with a high swinging strike rate, there are more strikeouts coming. Turner is just 23 years old. He was the key piece in the trade that sent Anibal Sanchez to the Tigers so the Marlins brass saw something in him that they liked very much. With a 1st-round pedigree, some first half success last year, a solid dominant start/disaster start split, an elite groundball rate of 58% and a high swinging strike rate, the Marlins front office may be right. All that aside, we’re happy to taking back a tag again on the Marlins at home against Paul Maholm. You should be too.
Baltimore -1½ +128 over MINNESOTA
2:10 PM EST. Kevin Correia may be the worst starting pitcher in the game. In 27 frames he has struck out 12 batters and five of those K’s came against the #9 hitter in the lineup. His swinging strike rate of 5% reveals he’s not fooling anyone and frankly, he never has anyway. At Target Field this year, Correia has been tagged for 23 hits and 17 runs in 15 innings for an ERA of 9.22. His xERA at home is 7.87. Not only is Correia getting lit up to shake what little confidence he has left but he has to be feeling a little anxious about facing the Orioles. Current O’s have 21 hits in 63 career AB’s against Correia for a BA of .339.
The Twins were shut out yesterday by Ubaldo Jimenez. After a hot start at the plate, the Twins are cooling off now and we love playing against a club that is laboring at the dish. Minnesota has scored just 11 times over their past four games and it may surprise you to learn that they’re hitting just .233 against lefties at home and just .226 overall at Target Field. After his 4.34 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after five starts, Wei-Yin Chen is not on a lot of folks’ radar. We’re calling it a combination of a slow start and pure bad luck but all the signs suggest that Chen is about to turn things around big time. Chen has more than enough ability to succeed in the big leagues and he has shown significant skills development ever since he’s been with the O’s beginning in 2012. Chen's 57%/14% dominant start/disaster split since his arrival shows he’s major-league material. Chen has 23 K’s and just seven walks in 23 frames. He’s been hurt by a low strand rate of 71% but as that increases his ERA will come way down. Furthermore, when Chen pitches, the Orioles usually win. In fact, Baltimore has won four straight with Chen starting and they have scored 31 runs over those four starts. In 29 innings, Chen has been taken yard just one time and he’s also coming off a gem against the Royals at Camden Yards. Chen and the O’s over Correia and the Twins is a wager we’ll make 100% of the time because the chances of cashing it are in the 70% range.
KANSAS CITY +100 over Detroit
Drew Smyly has appeared in four games this season, starting out in relief, a job he had all of last season, and subsequently moving into the rotation on April 18. In his two starts, the Tigers are 0-2 after facing the Angels and White Sox. There's a lot to like in Smyly’s skills. His K rate and command are very strong but there’s a big difference between starting and relieving. Expect some regression because of that difference, where you can get away with throwing one or two pitchers in relief. As a starter you need a repertoire be successful and Smyly is working on one. He’ll now face a lot more RH batters. He had more than a 200-point difference in OPS against righties versus lefties. His fly-ball tilt also takes away from his skill set. Our biggest issue with Smyly though is himself. Watch pitchers closely. When they are taking a lot of time between pitches instead of working fast it’s a sure sign that they are unsure of what they want to do. That’s Drew Smyly when he’s starting. A pitcher working fast knows exactly what he wants to do and executes it. Smyly does that as a reliever but not as a starter and major league hitters can sense an unsure pitcher. We’ll watch that play out again here.
Danny Duffy also comes out of the pen to make his first start of the year after appearing in six games. However, Duffy is much more comfortable in the starting role. Duffy went 2-0 with a 1.85 ERA in 24 innings for the Royals last year. He returned in late May from TJS, only to return to the DL in September (forearm). Duffy brings an elite strikeout rate with him to the mound. Duffy could be considered the left-handed version of Rubby de la Rosa in some respects. He also went through TJS a couple of years ago. Prior to his injury, he consistently threw in the mid-90s, piled up a lot of strikeouts, but couldn't find the plate consistently. He had a rough spring, but at age 25 and with his raw stuff, don't be surprised if he sticks around for a while. He also has a strong batted ball split of 50%-groundball /26%-line drive/24%-fly-ball. However, this wager is more about fading an unsure Smyly than it is about backing Duffy. Small price on Detroit is also curious.
