2 Wednesday w/analysis

Both plays are 2 units

Cubs +100 over WHITE SOX
Travis Wood has a 3.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP through six starts. In five of those six starts he’s allowed three runs or less and all of his skills are supported by his xERA of 3.53. Wood’s 37 K’s in 38 innings is supported by his 10% swinging strike rate, which is up two points from last year. His control is also trending the right way, as he has issued just seven walks. Wood has been steady and is certainly worth backing but this choice is more about fading John Danks.

Danks is getting progressively worse each season. He went 4-14 with a 4.75 ERA in 138 innings last season. Danks returned in mid-May last season from a year off (shoulder) but left his velocity on the DL. This season in 36 innings, Danks has an alarming K/BB split of 20/21. His fastball tops out at 88 MPH and his swinging strike rate over his last two starts is 5%. Batters are making contact on 90% of his pitches when he’s in the strike zone and that’s the worst mark in the majors for pitchers with at least four starts this year. Danks has a xERA of 5.53 to go along with a groundball/fly-ball split of 38%/42%. There is nothing in Danks’ profile that is appealing and until he shows us something different he’s an automatic fade when favored.

Cincinnati +145 over BOSTON
There’s really not a lot to like about the Cincinnati Reds. This is a ball club that has more flaws than Oscar Pistorius’ defense. From their defense to their offense to their bullpen to their inability to score key runs with RISP, the Reds are as frustrating to watch and/or wager on than just about any other team in the majors. That said, we can’t refuse this take-back on Mike Leake against Jake Peavy. A steady dose of groundballs and strong control provide Leake with a nice floor. Only two of Leake’s 37 starts since the beginning of last season have been disastrous. That tells us that the Reds have a chance to win every time Leake starts. Leake’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 57%/16%/27% is further proof that he’ll almost always keep his team in the game and has the ability to work through innings quickly. He seldom walks anyone, he has a 1.04 WHIP and his 3.53 ERA is right in line with his xERA of 3.49. If we were to describe Leake with one word it would be “reliable”.

Jake Peavy is anything but reliable. Pay no attention to Peavy’s 2.87 ERA because it is driven by extremely lucky hit and strand rates of 25% and 87% respectively. That low hit rate and high strand rate are both unsustainable. Peavy is precisely the reason you don’t purchase surface stats. His skills have been on a steady decline for two years running and they’ve never been worse than they are right now. Peavy has a 4.48 xERA overall and a 5.02 xERA over his past two starts. As a fly-ball pitcher with poor durability, with worsening control (21 BB in 36 innings) with a home in the AL East, Peavy's risk outweighs his reward. A big correction in Peavy’s ERA is coming.

You can also follow me on Twitter @sportswagers3 and instantly be notified when picks are posted