Players who go too high, too low
[h=3]A dozen players who could be drafted earlier or later than they should be[/h] Updated: May 8, 2014, 11:08 AM ET
<cite class="source"> By
Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider</cite>
<cite>AP Photo/John Raoux</cite>Could Florida State wideout Kelvin Benjamin go in Round 1 of the NFL draft?
One of the things I always find humorous is when people claim I love or hate a player based on where I have him in a mock draft. Anybody who knows my history can go back and see numerous instances in which I've disagreed with my own mocks -- just look into where I stood on Jeff George. Mocks are, by definition, a projection of what I think teams could do. They aren't a recommendation based on my evaluations.
So in this case I wanted to offer a glimpse into where I could end up disagreeing with my own mocks. I'm looking at players who could be taken too high, or too low. In the cases where they are taken too high, I simply don't think the player is worth as much as the likely pick slot. In the case of a player taken too low, I just think he's underrated.
Let's take a look.
[h=3]Overdrafted[/h]
On offense
WR Kelvin Benjamin goes too high if ...
He's taken in Round 1.
He offers intimidating size at 6-foot-5 and 240-plus pounds, not to mention an 83-inch wingspan, but Benjamin has rough edges as a receiver, with inconsistent hands and merely average ability as a route-runner. And while he's massive, he doesn't separate from defenders with his speed (he ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at the combine in Indianapolis). I think he needs development and is a better fit in Round 2.
QB Zach Mettenberger goes too high if ...
He goes before Round 4. Even before you question the intangibles, you have to take into consideration the slow feet and lack of escapability combined with a release that isn't on the quick side. Mettenberger could succeed in a system where the blocking is assured, but he's vulnerable otherwise. He's worth a developmental shot, but not before Day 3.
WR Cody Latimer goes too high if ...
He goes in Round 1. There's a good chance he ends up there (I had him there in a recent mock), but my concern with Latimer is the ability to separate. He worked out well, but he doesn't play as fast with the pads on, and isn't the type of quick-twitch athlete who can shake defenders easily. His hands are very good, but Round 1 is a little bit of a reach for me.
On defense
CB Bradley Roby goes too high if ...
He goes before
Kyle Fuller. That would likely mean in Round 1. Roby is a special athlete, but he's inconsistent and needs to clean up his game from a technical standpoint. He could be a rookie that gets feasted on by savvy NFL wide receivers unless he learns quickly. He's worth an upside bet, but Fuller offers more certainty.
DT Ra'Shede Hageman goes too high if ...
He goes before
Stephon Tuitt. I realize these are different types of players, but part of this assessment is based on the fact that at a similar size, Tuitt plays with more explosiveness when he's 100 percent. Tuitt's tape from his sophomore season greatly exceeds anything Hageman has shown.
OLB Anthony Barr goes too high if ...
He goes inside the top 20. His production was outstanding, but his awareness on defense is average to below average, and his main weapon as a pass-rusher is speed -- there isn't really any variety. He can be a good player with development, but he's not worth a high pick, given the questions.
[h=3]Underdrafted[/h]
On offense
RB Carlos Hyde goes too low if ...
He falls past the middle of Round 2. In fact, I think Tennessee would be making a mistake if it doesn't grab him at No. 42. I realize running back is a position that lacks the importance it once had, but you get the added benefit of immediate returns from a player with this kind of talent. Hyde is a potential rookie of the year.
WR Bruce Ellington goes too low if ...
He falls into Round 2.
Brandin Cooks is a very good player, and is likely off the board in the middle of Round 1. But if you watch the tape, you might say Ellington plays faster, and he can challenge a defender both underneath and over the top. He could be a steal.
TE C.J. Fiedorowicz goes too low if ...
He's around late in Round 3. Don't mistake the 6-5, 265-pounder as a plodder who simply runs a straight line and posts up. He can really move, dropping his hips to cut quickly and finding ways to separate from defenders. He's not a straight-line burner, but he can help an offense soon.
On defense
DE Stephon Tuitt goes too low if ...
He's still on the board in Round 2. I love the fit in Seattle, where versatile linemen thrive, and Tuitt is a talented player who would be going higher if he had been healthy in 2013. If he's in great shape, he can be an impact rookie.
S Jimmie Ward goes too low if ...
He's around past the middle of Round 2. Don't be worried about a lack of competition. Ward looks like he's a step ahead of everybody else, and his instincts and range will play well at the next level. So many teams need safeties, so I'd be surprised if my No. 33-ranked prospect is around long on Day 2, if at all.
OLB Kyle Van Noy goes too low if ...
He's around past No. 45 (
Detroit Lions). One of the more versatile defenders in the draft, Van Noy can feasibly play anywhere at linebacker, and shows great instincts and pursuit speed. If he went in Round 1, I wouldn't be the least bit bothered by it, as I consider him a top-30 player in this draft.
