[h=1]Best Preakness value bets[/h][h=3]California Chrome is the heavy favorite, but four other colts are also attractive[/h]By Lane Gold | ESPN Insider
Of the three Triple Crown races, the Preakness has been the most predictable, as 70 favorites have won in the race's 139 years. On Saturday, the odds are heavily in favor of that continuing.
Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, who will start from post position No. 3, was installed as the overwhelming 3-5 morning-line favorite. Based on the way he beat the Derby field and the fact that only two horses from the Derby have chosen to take him on (and just nine others are in the field), the odds are justified.
The one benefit to having an odds-on choice is that it creates great value if one wants to try and bet against California Chrome. What works against the Derby winner is that he is running back in two weeks, which he's never done before and his trainer is not fond of, and he's facing some horses that are well-rested.
Another thing to watch about California Chrome is that he came down with a throat blister on Thursday, although that didn't seem to concern trainer Art Sherman.
"The horse is completely fine," he said. "His blood work came back perfect. He coughed about four times today and we got him checked out right away. The blister isn't going to affect him at all; the vet said there were absolutely no other problems, nothing else going on."
There's no doubt that he is the horse to beat, and the story behind the owners is great, but here four other horses who offer great value to possibly knock off the Derby winner.
General a Rod (No. 2, morning line 15-1) -- He appeared to be a great value in the Derby (sent off at 30-1 odds) but he lost all chance early in the race, was shuffled back to 16th and could never get close.
But if you look closely at his Derby performance, it wasn't as bad as it appeared. He had a tough trip and only finished 8 1/2 lengths behind California Chrome despite finishing 11th.
Before the Derby, his resume was one of consistency as he never finished worse than third and appeared to be training very well. Upon arriving at Pimlico, he has continued to train well. <OFFER></OFFER>
He gets a new jockey in Javier Castellano, who was aboard in his narrow loss in the Fountain of Youth in February. The key for him is not getting shut off inside as California Chrome, who is next to him in the starting gate, will likely try to stay on the rail.
"I've always had a lot of confidence in this horse," said trainer Mike Maker. "He's got a great attitude and he never gets nervous about anything. If he's good enough, he'll prevail."
Bayern (No. 5, morning line 10-1) -- Trainer Bob Baffert is no stranger to the Preakness, as he has won five of them in his career and brings a colt that some thought would have a great shot to win the Derby earlier in the year.
The colt, named after the German soccer team Bayern Munich, won his first two races very impressively including a 15-length romp at Santa Anita in February. Then he missed some crucial training time and didn't run again until the Arkansas Derby, where he finished a disappointing third as the post time favorite.
His last hope to make the Derby ended in unusual fashion, as he was disqualified from first in the Derby Trial. Baffert made one change to Bayern for the Preakness, as he is removing the blinkers.
Bayern will likely go right to the front, and the question is if he can lead from start to finish. Baffert did it with War Emblem in 2002, and that will be his best shot to pull the upset.
Kid Cruz (No. 7, morning line 20-1) -- Nearly every year, there is a local horse that has thrived in his backyard and comes into Preakness as an unknown and potentially dangerous commodity.
The son of Lemon Drop Kid has won two straight (three of five overall) and will be counting on a fast early pace to unleash his last-to-first running style. As we saw in the last two Kentucky Derbys, two longshots came from far behind to take the second spot -- but if Kid Cruz is to have any chance, he can't fall too far behind. Big closers have not fared well in the Preakness.
Ride On Curlin (No. 10, morning line 10-1) -- This is another colt that before the Kentucky Derby was as consistent as a horse can be. However, a bad ride nearly two weeks ago cost him any chance.
In the Derby, Calvin Borel, like he has done in all of his previous victories, went right to the inside from the time the starting gate opened but the problem was that left him last and nearly 20 lengths behind. Still, he finished seventh, making up nearly nine lengths down the Churchill Downs stretch.
Trainer Billy Gowan sacked Borel and gained the services of Joel Rosario, who won last year's Derby on Orb. He had a good workout over the Pimlico track on Wednesday and appears to like the track. With a smoother trip this time around, there's no reason to think Ride On Curlin won't be in the mix down the stretch.
"I think he's one of the top 3-year-olds in the country," Gowan said. "I wouldn't be here if I didn't. Hopefully, one of these days we'll get the chance to show it, maybe Saturday."
Of the three Triple Crown races, the Preakness has been the most predictable, as 70 favorites have won in the race's 139 years. On Saturday, the odds are heavily in favor of that continuing.
Kentucky Derby winner California Chrome, who will start from post position No. 3, was installed as the overwhelming 3-5 morning-line favorite. Based on the way he beat the Derby field and the fact that only two horses from the Derby have chosen to take him on (and just nine others are in the field), the odds are justified.
The one benefit to having an odds-on choice is that it creates great value if one wants to try and bet against California Chrome. What works against the Derby winner is that he is running back in two weeks, which he's never done before and his trainer is not fond of, and he's facing some horses that are well-rested.
Another thing to watch about California Chrome is that he came down with a throat blister on Thursday, although that didn't seem to concern trainer Art Sherman.
"The horse is completely fine," he said. "His blood work came back perfect. He coughed about four times today and we got him checked out right away. The blister isn't going to affect him at all; the vet said there were absolutely no other problems, nothing else going on."
There's no doubt that he is the horse to beat, and the story behind the owners is great, but here four other horses who offer great value to possibly knock off the Derby winner.
General a Rod (No. 2, morning line 15-1) -- He appeared to be a great value in the Derby (sent off at 30-1 odds) but he lost all chance early in the race, was shuffled back to 16th and could never get close.
But if you look closely at his Derby performance, it wasn't as bad as it appeared. He had a tough trip and only finished 8 1/2 lengths behind California Chrome despite finishing 11th.
Before the Derby, his resume was one of consistency as he never finished worse than third and appeared to be training very well. Upon arriving at Pimlico, he has continued to train well. <OFFER></OFFER>
He gets a new jockey in Javier Castellano, who was aboard in his narrow loss in the Fountain of Youth in February. The key for him is not getting shut off inside as California Chrome, who is next to him in the starting gate, will likely try to stay on the rail.
"I've always had a lot of confidence in this horse," said trainer Mike Maker. "He's got a great attitude and he never gets nervous about anything. If he's good enough, he'll prevail."
Bayern (No. 5, morning line 10-1) -- Trainer Bob Baffert is no stranger to the Preakness, as he has won five of them in his career and brings a colt that some thought would have a great shot to win the Derby earlier in the year.
The colt, named after the German soccer team Bayern Munich, won his first two races very impressively including a 15-length romp at Santa Anita in February. Then he missed some crucial training time and didn't run again until the Arkansas Derby, where he finished a disappointing third as the post time favorite.
His last hope to make the Derby ended in unusual fashion, as he was disqualified from first in the Derby Trial. Baffert made one change to Bayern for the Preakness, as he is removing the blinkers.
Bayern will likely go right to the front, and the question is if he can lead from start to finish. Baffert did it with War Emblem in 2002, and that will be his best shot to pull the upset.
Kid Cruz (No. 7, morning line 20-1) -- Nearly every year, there is a local horse that has thrived in his backyard and comes into Preakness as an unknown and potentially dangerous commodity.
The son of Lemon Drop Kid has won two straight (three of five overall) and will be counting on a fast early pace to unleash his last-to-first running style. As we saw in the last two Kentucky Derbys, two longshots came from far behind to take the second spot -- but if Kid Cruz is to have any chance, he can't fall too far behind. Big closers have not fared well in the Preakness.
Ride On Curlin (No. 10, morning line 10-1) -- This is another colt that before the Kentucky Derby was as consistent as a horse can be. However, a bad ride nearly two weeks ago cost him any chance.
In the Derby, Calvin Borel, like he has done in all of his previous victories, went right to the inside from the time the starting gate opened but the problem was that left him last and nearly 20 lengths behind. Still, he finished seventh, making up nearly nine lengths down the Churchill Downs stretch.
Trainer Billy Gowan sacked Borel and gained the services of Joel Rosario, who won last year's Derby on Orb. He had a good workout over the Pimlico track on Wednesday and appears to like the track. With a smoother trip this time around, there's no reason to think Ride On Curlin won't be in the mix down the stretch.
"I think he's one of the top 3-year-olds in the country," Gowan said. "I wouldn't be here if I didn't. Hopefully, one of these days we'll get the chance to show it, maybe Saturday."
