[h=1]Playoffs: Scouting Thunder-Spurs[/h][h=3]Analyzing Oklahoma City-San Antonio with expert scouting and advanced stats[/h]
By Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider
Insider offers a breakdown of every playoff series using an expert combination of scouting from Amin Elhassan and advanced metrics from Bradford Doolittle to answer three crucial questions. Also included are predictions from the writers and the classic Log5 formula for determining matchup probabilities.
It's a rematch of the 2012 Western Conference finals, and wouldn't you know it, the basketball gods have made a house call to the Oklahoma City Thunder again.
After overcoming the straitjacket defense of Memphis in the first round and receiving a tiny bit of luck to defeat the Clippers in the conference semifinals, the injury bug has claimed a key member from the Thunder's roster for the second straight postseason. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs had their own scare in the first round against a pesky Dallas team, but eventually righted the ship and crushed Portland in the conference semifinals. In the process, Tony Parker suffered a strained hamstring, but he's expected to play through it.
Can the Thunder fulfill their destiny as the next great NBA team, or will the Spurs take one step closer to avenging the sins of last season?
<CENTER>Western Conference finals preview</CENTER>
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]QUESTION 1: Serge Ibaka suffered a calf injury and is out for the remainder of the playoffs. In what unexpected aspect will his absence hurt the most?[/h]
Elhassan: His offense! Ibaka has developed into quite the two-way player, as one of the best midrange shooters in the game with range that extends all the way out to corner 3-pointers. In Oklahoma City's bare-bones offensive schemes, the importance of having reliable, knock-down catch-and-shoot options cannot be understated. This effect has intensified during the playoffs, where the Thunder are 10 points per 100 possessions better on offense when Ibaka is on the floor than when he's off it. That's not to say he's an offensive dynamo; rather, his presence makes life easier for his teammates, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Without Ibaka keeping defenses honest, those two will have to deal with a more compact defense that will seek to gamble more.
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<CENTER>Ibaka</CENTER>
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Doolittle: I'll start with the intangible: How discouraging does it have to be for a championship contender to lose a top-three player during the playoffs two years in a row? If this were Durant, then forget it -- it's a sweep for the Spurs. Another injury to Westbrook wouldn't spell certain doom, but something close to it. Ibaka? This injury is not good, for sure, being that he was second on OKC in WARP (Westbrook would have been higher if not for his 36 missed games), and 22nd in the league. So that's taking All-Star value off your roster. The Thunder depth has not impressed me much this season, but now it will really be tested.
As for the tangible effect, according to NBA.com, the Thunder were 7.8 points better per 48 minutes with Ibaka on the floor. Believe it or not, most of that was due to the offense falling when he sat (as Amin pointed out). The defense was actually worse with him on the floor. This tells you a lot about the contrasting strengths of Ibaka and Nick Collison. I think the OKC offense will take the bigger hit, because Ibaka's knock-down jumper is the perfect third option to the Westbrook-Durant combo, and bails out an awful lot of stagnant possessions. The spacing will also be an issue with him out. To put numbers to it, OKC shot 46.5 percent from medium range with Ibaka on the floor, but just 35.7 percent from there with him on the bench.
[h=3]QUESTION 2: A silver lining to Ibaka's injury is that Scott Brooks stumbled upon the extremely effective frontline combo of Collison and Steven Adams. Should they stick with this lineup against San Antonio?[/h]
Elhassan: Collison and Adams played only 30 minutes together with Westbrook and Durant during the regular season; they've almost matched that total in the postseason, with 23 minutes. During that time, Oklahoma City has been a plus-19, benefiting from their physical play in the paint and the upgraded offensive efficiency, especially the passing of Collison. Against the Spurs, however, the Thunder will be facing a big, savvy front line with Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw -- all high-IQ players with considerable length (or in Diaw's case, mass). Oklahoma City might be better suited playing small-ball lineups with Caron Butler or even Durant at the 4, and using either Collison or Adams at the 5. Anything that keeps Kendrick Perkins off the floor!
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<CENTER>Collison</CENTER>
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Doolittle: Look at the depth chart. What other options are there? Collison may not be able to space the floor like Ibaka, though his newfound ability to hit corner 3s could come in handy. He always has a positive impact one way or another, ranking second on OKC in rebounds per minute this season. Adams can really play, and he gives the team some attitude, but his Bill Laimbeer imitation is unlikely to rattle the veteran Spurs. Also, those two plus Perkins have combined to average 22.7 fouls per 48 minutes during the playoffs. They better cut that down drastically, or we'll be seeing a whole lot of Hasheem Thabeet.
The best bet is a small lineup with Durant at the 4 and Butler at the 3, with Adams in the middle to check Duncan. That trio has been outscored by 8.9 points per 48 minutes during the playoffs, but during the regular season it was plus-11.5, albeit in just 58 minutes. I don't see "more Kendrick Perkins" as an attractive option.
[h=3]QUESTION 3: Oklahoma City swept the Spurs in the regular season, and has won 10 of the past 12 meetings between the two teams dating back to the 2012 Western Conference finals. Why have the Thunder been such a thorn in San Antonio's side?[/h]
Elhassan: Oklahoma City's length and athleticism seem to bother San Antonio more than you'd expect. Offensively, they're able to create shots for themselves that other players can't; almost every field goal attempt for Durant is a highly makeable shot, and Westbrook's explosiveness gets him into high-percentage areas from anywhere on the floor, with the strength to finish through contact. Defensively, the Thunder want to prevent or contest shots near the rim, and they rely on their length and athleticism on the perimeter to close out to shooters and contest. However, a big part of this defensive success was based on the availability of Ibaka as a defensive anchor; without him, Oklahoma City can't afford to be as aggressive.
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<CENTER>Duncan</CENTER>
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Doolittle: Here's the good news from the Ibaka situation: Without Ibaka on the floor, Oklahoma City has outscored the Spurs by 8.7 points per 48, versus 9.4 with him, so the drop-off hasn't been significant. The Thunder offense has been the driving force behind its recent dominance of the Spurs, as they've shot 40.7 percent from 3-point range in eight games over the last two seasons, on more than 18 attempts per game.
But you have to worry if Ibaka's absence will mean fewer instances in which Duncan is drawn out of the lane, meaning the Spurs can run the Thunder off the arc knowing that the Big Fundamental is there to protect the rim. And Ibaka won't be there to protect the rim at the other end, where he has blocked 16 shots by Duncan, Parker and Splitter over the last two seasons.
[h=3]Predictions[/h]
Elhassan: Spurs in six games. Let the record show that I thought San Antonio would win even if Ibaka were healthy. But with his injury, the odds swing more heavily in the Spurs' favor. Also, despite the individual brilliance of Durant and Westbrook, I can't imagine the simplicity of their offensive schemes can overcome Gregg Popovich's grandmaster chess game.
Don't be surprised if: The Spurs defend Westbrook and Durant using schemes that they did not unveil during the regular season. San Antonio switched up the way it defended Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge in pick and pops for their series, to great success.
Doolittle: Spurs in six games. This was my pick before the Ibaka news dropped, and I considered making it five. But the OKC big two is still better than the Spurs' big two at this point, and that should keep them in most games. Ultimately, there is just too much of an edge for San Antonio on roster spots No. 3 through 10.
Don't be surprised if: One of the three forgotten end-of-bench players for OKC ends up playing an important role: Thabeet, Jeremy Lamb or Perry Jones III.
Log5 probabilities: 63 percent chance Spurs win series.
By Amin Elhassan and Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider
Insider offers a breakdown of every playoff series using an expert combination of scouting from Amin Elhassan and advanced metrics from Bradford Doolittle to answer three crucial questions. Also included are predictions from the writers and the classic Log5 formula for determining matchup probabilities.
It's a rematch of the 2012 Western Conference finals, and wouldn't you know it, the basketball gods have made a house call to the Oklahoma City Thunder again.
After overcoming the straitjacket defense of Memphis in the first round and receiving a tiny bit of luck to defeat the Clippers in the conference semifinals, the injury bug has claimed a key member from the Thunder's roster for the second straight postseason. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs had their own scare in the first round against a pesky Dallas team, but eventually righted the ship and crushed Portland in the conference semifinals. In the process, Tony Parker suffered a strained hamstring, but he's expected to play through it.
Can the Thunder fulfill their destiny as the next great NBA team, or will the Spurs take one step closer to avenging the sins of last season?
[h=3]Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs[/h]
<CENTER>Western Conference finals preview</CENTER>
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]QUESTION 1: Serge Ibaka suffered a calf injury and is out for the remainder of the playoffs. In what unexpected aspect will his absence hurt the most?[/h]
Elhassan: His offense! Ibaka has developed into quite the two-way player, as one of the best midrange shooters in the game with range that extends all the way out to corner 3-pointers. In Oklahoma City's bare-bones offensive schemes, the importance of having reliable, knock-down catch-and-shoot options cannot be understated. This effect has intensified during the playoffs, where the Thunder are 10 points per 100 possessions better on offense when Ibaka is on the floor than when he's off it. That's not to say he's an offensive dynamo; rather, his presence makes life easier for his teammates, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Without Ibaka keeping defenses honest, those two will have to deal with a more compact defense that will seek to gamble more.
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<CENTER>Ibaka</CENTER>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Doolittle: I'll start with the intangible: How discouraging does it have to be for a championship contender to lose a top-three player during the playoffs two years in a row? If this were Durant, then forget it -- it's a sweep for the Spurs. Another injury to Westbrook wouldn't spell certain doom, but something close to it. Ibaka? This injury is not good, for sure, being that he was second on OKC in WARP (Westbrook would have been higher if not for his 36 missed games), and 22nd in the league. So that's taking All-Star value off your roster. The Thunder depth has not impressed me much this season, but now it will really be tested.
As for the tangible effect, according to NBA.com, the Thunder were 7.8 points better per 48 minutes with Ibaka on the floor. Believe it or not, most of that was due to the offense falling when he sat (as Amin pointed out). The defense was actually worse with him on the floor. This tells you a lot about the contrasting strengths of Ibaka and Nick Collison. I think the OKC offense will take the bigger hit, because Ibaka's knock-down jumper is the perfect third option to the Westbrook-Durant combo, and bails out an awful lot of stagnant possessions. The spacing will also be an issue with him out. To put numbers to it, OKC shot 46.5 percent from medium range with Ibaka on the floor, but just 35.7 percent from there with him on the bench.
[h=3]QUESTION 2: A silver lining to Ibaka's injury is that Scott Brooks stumbled upon the extremely effective frontline combo of Collison and Steven Adams. Should they stick with this lineup against San Antonio?[/h]
Elhassan: Collison and Adams played only 30 minutes together with Westbrook and Durant during the regular season; they've almost matched that total in the postseason, with 23 minutes. During that time, Oklahoma City has been a plus-19, benefiting from their physical play in the paint and the upgraded offensive efficiency, especially the passing of Collison. Against the Spurs, however, the Thunder will be facing a big, savvy front line with Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw -- all high-IQ players with considerable length (or in Diaw's case, mass). Oklahoma City might be better suited playing small-ball lineups with Caron Butler or even Durant at the 4, and using either Collison or Adams at the 5. Anything that keeps Kendrick Perkins off the floor!
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<CENTER>Collison</CENTER>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Doolittle: Look at the depth chart. What other options are there? Collison may not be able to space the floor like Ibaka, though his newfound ability to hit corner 3s could come in handy. He always has a positive impact one way or another, ranking second on OKC in rebounds per minute this season. Adams can really play, and he gives the team some attitude, but his Bill Laimbeer imitation is unlikely to rattle the veteran Spurs. Also, those two plus Perkins have combined to average 22.7 fouls per 48 minutes during the playoffs. They better cut that down drastically, or we'll be seeing a whole lot of Hasheem Thabeet.
The best bet is a small lineup with Durant at the 4 and Butler at the 3, with Adams in the middle to check Duncan. That trio has been outscored by 8.9 points per 48 minutes during the playoffs, but during the regular season it was plus-11.5, albeit in just 58 minutes. I don't see "more Kendrick Perkins" as an attractive option.
[h=3]QUESTION 3: Oklahoma City swept the Spurs in the regular season, and has won 10 of the past 12 meetings between the two teams dating back to the 2012 Western Conference finals. Why have the Thunder been such a thorn in San Antonio's side?[/h]
Elhassan: Oklahoma City's length and athleticism seem to bother San Antonio more than you'd expect. Offensively, they're able to create shots for themselves that other players can't; almost every field goal attempt for Durant is a highly makeable shot, and Westbrook's explosiveness gets him into high-percentage areas from anywhere on the floor, with the strength to finish through contact. Defensively, the Thunder want to prevent or contest shots near the rim, and they rely on their length and athleticism on the perimeter to close out to shooters and contest. However, a big part of this defensive success was based on the availability of Ibaka as a defensive anchor; without him, Oklahoma City can't afford to be as aggressive.
<!--INLINE MUG-->
<CENTER>Duncan</CENTER>
<!--END INLINE MUG-->
Doolittle: Here's the good news from the Ibaka situation: Without Ibaka on the floor, Oklahoma City has outscored the Spurs by 8.7 points per 48, versus 9.4 with him, so the drop-off hasn't been significant. The Thunder offense has been the driving force behind its recent dominance of the Spurs, as they've shot 40.7 percent from 3-point range in eight games over the last two seasons, on more than 18 attempts per game.
But you have to worry if Ibaka's absence will mean fewer instances in which Duncan is drawn out of the lane, meaning the Spurs can run the Thunder off the arc knowing that the Big Fundamental is there to protect the rim. And Ibaka won't be there to protect the rim at the other end, where he has blocked 16 shots by Duncan, Parker and Splitter over the last two seasons.
[h=3]Predictions[/h]
Elhassan: Spurs in six games. Let the record show that I thought San Antonio would win even if Ibaka were healthy. But with his injury, the odds swing more heavily in the Spurs' favor. Also, despite the individual brilliance of Durant and Westbrook, I can't imagine the simplicity of their offensive schemes can overcome Gregg Popovich's grandmaster chess game.
Don't be surprised if: The Spurs defend Westbrook and Durant using schemes that they did not unveil during the regular season. San Antonio switched up the way it defended Portland's LaMarcus Aldridge in pick and pops for their series, to great success.
Doolittle: Spurs in six games. This was my pick before the Ibaka news dropped, and I considered making it five. But the OKC big two is still better than the Spurs' big two at this point, and that should keep them in most games. Ultimately, there is just too much of an edge for San Antonio on roster spots No. 3 through 10.
Don't be surprised if: One of the three forgotten end-of-bench players for OKC ends up playing an important role: Thabeet, Jeremy Lamb or Perry Jones III.
Log5 probabilities: 63 percent chance Spurs win series.
