MLB FADE THE PUBLIC 5-GAME CHASE (risk .0075% of bankroll, then 75% of loss martingale)

HappyKane · May 20, 2014

Lets get this started!

Dumped 5K at South Point Casino for their phone betting app.
http://i171.photobucket.com/albums/u293/hapkane11/bankroll.jpg

Here are the plays for "fade the public" chase system:

CHASE 1, 1st of 5
Nationals -106
$40 to win $77.75

CHASE 2, 1st of 5
Astros +145 1st 5 innings
$35 to win $88.75

Nice reverse line movement against the Reds. Public are all over the Reds but the Nationals are now favored. 5Dimes have Nationals at -109.

Mojo chart below:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...lUR1RhQlJDdTE4dTBaOXBMakE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

Book mark it!

Non-chase, regular plays:

Red Sox -142 (5Dimes)
New York Yankees -1 -137 (5Dimes)

HappyKane · May 20, 2014

Correction:

CHASE 2, 1st of 5
Astros +145 1st 5 innings
$35 to win $85.75

packer2012 · May 20, 2014

Curious.... since you are promoting this, you must know the answer to this question?

What % of play on any team.... full game. 1st five innings, total, whatever.... never result in a five game streak of the same result. My question really is... I suspect if you are willing to risk losing your sack..... You will win several chases.... but get hammered in the long run.

Strong suspicion!

Best of luck! hope they rename it the South Point HK.

Also... serious question.... How much time before game time do you consider a line move to become time to "fade the public"?

varkeyboy · May 20, 2014

HappyKane said:
Correction:

CHASE 2, 1st of 5
Astros +145 1st 5 innings
$35 to win $85.75

Risking $35.00 To Win $50.75

So i'm confused.....where u getting $85?

HappyKane · May 20, 2014

CHASE 2, 1st of 5
Astros +145 1st 5 innings
$35 to pay $85.75

Yes. $35 wins $50.75

packer2012 · May 20, 2014

He is talking about return of winnings plus action amount when he cashes his ticket... I guess. Figures out that way $35+$50.75=$85.75.

People who don't understand baseball bets will pull ALL their hair out on this thread.

Thanks for the update.

HappyKane · May 20, 2014

packer2012 said:
Curious.... since you are promoting this, you must know the answer to this question?

What % of play on any team.... full game. 1st five innings, total, whatever.... never result in a five game streak of the same result. My question really is... I suspect if you are willing to risk losing your sack..... You will win several chases.... but get hammered in the long run.

Strong suspicion!

Best of luck! hope they rename it the South Point HK.

Also... serious question.... How much time before game time do you consider a line move to become time to "fade the public"?

The qualified plays are filtered through what i call "mojo ratings". Its in the spreadsheet i linked.

Usually i monitor sportsinsight's numbers up to 1 hour before game time. But there are certain games you just know that the public will be way over 60% for the whole day. Reds and Angel will definitely get lots of public support today.

packer2012 · May 20, 2014

Best wishes Man. You enjoy the "South Point Casino phone betting app" then?

Do they accept any meaningful limits?

HappyKane · May 20, 2014

packer2012 said:
Best wishes Man. You enjoy the "South Point Casino phone betting app" then?

Do they accept any meaningful limits?

I like the South Point app a bit better than the Cantor app. Difference: the South Point app you have to go through the whole process to put in individual bets; the Cantor app -- you can select all the games you want to bet and they'll be on the interface.

Going to try the William & Hill app later this week. I have a feeling i'll like the William & Hill app a lot more than the two i have now. Especially if i can bet the overnight lines. Thats why i still keep offshore accounts. Reduced-juice overnight betting will save hundreds of dollars over the MLB season.

By the way, stay away from the Station Casino apps and Boyd Gaming apps. Not bad, but not good either. Lines are awful most of the time.

HappyKane · May 20, 2014

packer2012 said:
Best wishes Man. You enjoy the "South Point Casino phone betting app" then?

Do they accept any meaningful limits?

The limit sucks. The usual 2K for most sports and 500 for Halves and exotics, 3K limit for NFL.

Unless you're a big-time tables player or whale like Floyd Mayweather i doubt... you know.

packer2012 · May 20, 2014

Those are not bad limits at all, given the convenience.

Expect they limit people further on the overnights?

HappyKane · May 20, 2014

Oh, i understand your question a bit better now.

Teams with bad bullpens gets the 1st 5 innings bet.

For example, Astros. And Angels, Cubs, etc.

HappyKane · May 20, 2014

There are no overnight bets with these apps. You can't make a bet until 8am.

But you can bet the next day's games when they have the lines before closing -- which is around 10pm i think.

Can't say that for the William & Hill app. I hope they have overnight betting since they're global.

HappyKane · May 21, 2014

CHASE 1 is a winner as Fister took a W over Cueto with conviction.

CHASE 2 is a loser and will go to 2nd try on the next qualified "fade the public" play.

Both [blue] A+ rated pitchers went 2-0 on Tuesday, Fister and Teheran.

There are two A+ rated pitchers today: Wandy Rodriguez and Ervin Santana.

67% of the public on Milwaukee today? I find that hard to believe.

I'll be back in about 8 hours to confirm a play; most likely will be on the Braves.

HappyKane · May 21, 2014

No play today. Milwaukee support dropped to below 59%.

HappyKane · May 22, 2014

OFFICIAL FADE THE PUBLIC CHASE PLAY

CHASE 2, 2nd of 5
Pirates -123
$63 to win $51.22

Ticket	Accepted Date	Risk	To Win	Status	Wager
244858871-1	5/22/14 6:16pm	$63.00	$51.22	Pending	5/22/14 7:05pm MLB Baseball 906 Pittsburgh Pirates -123* <small>vs</small> Washington Nationals (B Treinen - R must Start E Volquez - R must Start)

HappyKane · May 24, 2014

3 FADE THE PUBLIC PLAYS TODAY!

CHASE 3, 1st of 5
Blue Jays +100
$42 to win $42

CHASE 4, 1st of 5
White Sox +104
$45 to win $46.80

CHASE 5, 1st of 5
Pirates -113
$40 to win $35.40

Ticket	Accepted Date	Risk	To Win	Status	Wager
245039863-1	5/24/14 11:32am	$45.00	$46.80	Pending	5/24/14 2:10pm MLB Baseball 918 Chicago White Sox +104* <small>vs</small> New York Yankees (V Nuno - L must Start J Danks - L must Start)

245039701-1	5/24/14 11:29am	$40.00	$35.40	Pending	5/24/14 7:15pm MLB Baseball 912 Pittsburgh Pirates -113* <small>vs</small> Washington Nationals (S Strasburg - R must Start G Cole - R must Start)

245039634-1	5/24/14 11:29am	$42.00	$42.00	Pending	5/24/14 1:05pm MLB Baseball 916 Toronto Blue Jays +100* <small>vs</small> Oakland Athletics (J Chavez - R must Start R Dickey - R must Start)

HappyKane · May 25, 2014

CHASE 3, 1st of 5 WIN!
CHASE 5, 1st of 5 WIN!
CHASE 4, 1st of 5 LOSE!

Belisario blew what would've been a perfect day.

CHASE 4 now goes to 2nd of 5.

And that play is:

Rockies +159
$77 to win $122.43

Ticket	Accepted Date	Risk	To Win	Status	Wager
245212413-1	5/25/14 12:30pm	$77.00	$122.43	Pending	5/25/14 5:10pm MLB Baseball 961 Colorado Rockies +159* <small>vs</small> Atlanta Braves (F Morales - L must Start J Teheran - R must Start)

HappyKane · May 26, 2014

Totally forgot. Part of the filter was to stay away from over +150 underdogs.

HappyKane · May 26, 2014

YTD record: 4-0 +$9.37

3 possible FADE THE PUBLIC plays for Monday, May 26:

MIA 31%
WAS 69%

CHC 39%
SF 61%

TB 40%
TOR 60%

The market is catching onto Tampa Bay. Overnight line was TB +145 and is settling near +130. Toronto support could dip below 59%.

The market for Washington and San Francisco should sustain, staying over 60%.

In that case, CHASE 4, 3rd of 5 will be on Miami Marlins.

Chicago Cubs will be CHASE 6, 1st of 5.

Tampa Bay Rays will be CHASE 7, 1st of 5 if the market average maintain.