[h=1]Early projected AFC standings[/h][h=3]Steelers, Broncos top respective divisions in early look at 2014 season[/h]ESPN INSIDER
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2014 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation. But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2014 records to build his 2015 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average ratings (DVOA), then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last year's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.
Today, I'll go through the AFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2014. (We did the NFC on Tuesday.) Each team has a forecasted record, and for those of you wanting more detail, we also have a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Oakland is No. 1) to the easiest (Houston).
When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2014, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2014." Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities, so all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. Obviously, the 2014 season won't really end up with only one team below 6-10 and no teams above 12-4.
[h=3]AFC East[/h]New England Patriots: 10-6 (10.0 mean wins, strength of schedule: 19)
Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 18)
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins; SOS: 17)
New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 11)
The Patriots have won 10 or more games in 11 straight years, and it would take something really unexpected to keep them from making it a dozen in a row. This projection is extrapolated from last year's ratings, which came with only half a season of Rob Gronkowski; they should be even better if Gronk can make it back from his ACL tear by Week 1. In addition, the Pats are the rare team to show consistency in special teams. They've been in the top eight of Football Outsiders' special teams ratings in seven of the past eight years, including second last year, and they haven't had below-average special teams since 1995 -- one year before they signed a rookie kicker named Adam Vinatieri.<OFFER></OFFER>
The Jets are another team whose projection may be too low because they don't fit the usual mold. While most defenses are inconsistent from year to year, the Jets' defense has been consistently strong since Rex Ryan took over as head coach. It will look even better in 2014 when their luck recovering fumbles regresses to the mean; they recovered only one of 13 defensive fumbles last year. Unfortunately for the Jets, their offense is just as consistent as their defense, and it's been consistently awful.
Buffalo and Miami are Buffalo and Miami, and will continue to be Buffalo and Miami. It certainly wouldn't be a shock to see either EJ Manuel or Ryan Tannehill take a big step forward and get his respective team into the playoffs, but otherwise these teams seem to be mediocre year after year and offer no indication that they're ready to break that trend.
[h=3]AFC North[/h]Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7 (9.2 mean wins; SOS: 30)
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.7 mean wins; SOS: 25)
Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 26)
Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 28)
Cincinnati actually comes out slightly better than Pittsburgh in our mean DVOA projections, but that small difference in strength of schedule is enough to predict Pittsburgh as the more likely division champion. The injury assumptions here may be a little off because while Cincinnati had a low number of injuries, they were to very important players like Leon Hall and Geno Atkins. Nonetheless, while Atkins is one of the best defensive tackles in the game, getting Maurkice Pouncey back probably means more to the Steelers than Atkins' return means to the Bengals, because the Bengals had more depth behind Atkins.
Baltimore followed up its Super Bowl-winning season by plummeting to 30th in the Football Outsiders offensive ratings, and it would take a lot of rebound for the Ravens to have another winning season.
Cleveland did very well in this year's draft, but we likely won't see immediate results on the field, especially if Josh Gordon gets suspended for the entire season.
[h=3]AFC South[/h]Indianapolis Colts: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins; SOS: 29)
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 31)
Houston Texans: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 (5.9 mean wins; SOS: 27)
This is getting to be the story of the Colts: excellent quarterback leads mediocre team to 10 wins thanks to easy schedule. Then again, the whole division gets the benefit of easy schedules, thanks mostly to playing each other but also because they miss both western divisions in the rotating interdivisional format. In addition, the Colts were second in adjusted games lost behind the Giants last season, so they should be healthier (and thus better) in 2014. Losing Robert Mathis for the first four games could hurt a bit, though.
The Texans are in line for a big improvement thanks to both normal old regression toward the mean and the Plexiglass Principle, which says that teams that decline significantly tend to rebound the next year. Football Outsiders DVOA had Houston 16th on offense and fourth on defense in 2012; last year, the Texans were 29th on offense and 18th on defense. Unfortunately, the defensive rebound (including the addition of No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney) is probably not going to be enough to get them back into the playoffs, even with the easiest schedule in the league, because the quarterback situation makes the offensive rebound a big question mark.
The Titans are another one of those teams that seems to hover around 8-8 every single year, and the Jaguars are still working on rebuilding after cleaning up Gene Smith's mess.
[h=3]AFC West[/h]Denver Broncos: 12-4 (12.0 mean wins; SOS: 16)
San Diego Chargers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 14)
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 5)
Oakland Raiders: 4-12 (4.1 mean wins; SOS: 1)
The AFC West is home to both the best and worst projected teams of 2014. You've now read through two articles in which I keep talking about how offense is more predictable than defense, so it is probably no surprise that the NFL's best offense gets the year's best forecast. There were also a couple of big free-agent signings: Aqib Talib probably cancels out the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who was really good last year, and DeMarcus Ware is a big addition. Plus, the Broncos were actually one of the most injured teams in the league last year after above-average health in both 2011 and 2012. You know about defensive players like Von Miller and Chris Harris who went down near the end of the year, but don't forget they also lost left tackle Ryan Clady for the entire season.
On the other hand, we've got the Raiders, who lost their best offensive lineman (Jared Veldheer) and best defensive lineman (Lamarr Houston) in free agency. Right now we have them projected in last place for offense and 31st for defense, with the hardest schedule in the league. It's not going to be a pretty season in Oakland.
In between are the Chargers and Chiefs. The projection here may be a bit too sanguine about the Chargers maintaining last year's offensive renaissance, especially with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt now gone to run the Titans. On the other hand, the Chargers' defense, which ranked dead last in DVOA last year, is almost certain to improve.
The Chiefs are living in a new world where they've gone from one of the easiest schedules in the league to one of the hardest. They also had the NFL's lowest adjusted games lost total in 2013 and are almost assuredly going to suffer more injuries in 2014.
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2014 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation. But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2014 records to build his 2015 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average ratings (DVOA), then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last year's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.
Today, I'll go through the AFC division-by-division and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2014. (We did the NFC on Tuesday.) Each team has a forecasted record, and for those of you wanting more detail, we also have a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next year's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Oakland is No. 1) to the easiest (Houston).
When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2014, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of "Football Outsiders Almanac 2014." Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities, so all teams end up grouped more toward 8-8 with very few teams listed with double-digit wins or losses. Obviously, the 2014 season won't really end up with only one team below 6-10 and no teams above 12-4.
Miami Dolphins: 7-9 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 18)
Buffalo Bills: 7-9 (6.8 mean wins; SOS: 17)
New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 11)
The Patriots have won 10 or more games in 11 straight years, and it would take something really unexpected to keep them from making it a dozen in a row. This projection is extrapolated from last year's ratings, which came with only half a season of Rob Gronkowski; they should be even better if Gronk can make it back from his ACL tear by Week 1. In addition, the Pats are the rare team to show consistency in special teams. They've been in the top eight of Football Outsiders' special teams ratings in seven of the past eight years, including second last year, and they haven't had below-average special teams since 1995 -- one year before they signed a rookie kicker named Adam Vinatieri.<OFFER></OFFER>
The Jets are another team whose projection may be too low because they don't fit the usual mold. While most defenses are inconsistent from year to year, the Jets' defense has been consistently strong since Rex Ryan took over as head coach. It will look even better in 2014 when their luck recovering fumbles regresses to the mean; they recovered only one of 13 defensive fumbles last year. Unfortunately for the Jets, their offense is just as consistent as their defense, and it's been consistently awful.
Buffalo and Miami are Buffalo and Miami, and will continue to be Buffalo and Miami. It certainly wouldn't be a shock to see either EJ Manuel or Ryan Tannehill take a big step forward and get his respective team into the playoffs, but otherwise these teams seem to be mediocre year after year and offer no indication that they're ready to break that trend.
[h=3]AFC North[/h]Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7 (9.2 mean wins; SOS: 30)
Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7 (8.7 mean wins; SOS: 25)
Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 26)
Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 28)
Cincinnati actually comes out slightly better than Pittsburgh in our mean DVOA projections, but that small difference in strength of schedule is enough to predict Pittsburgh as the more likely division champion. The injury assumptions here may be a little off because while Cincinnati had a low number of injuries, they were to very important players like Leon Hall and Geno Atkins. Nonetheless, while Atkins is one of the best defensive tackles in the game, getting Maurkice Pouncey back probably means more to the Steelers than Atkins' return means to the Bengals, because the Bengals had more depth behind Atkins.
Baltimore followed up its Super Bowl-winning season by plummeting to 30th in the Football Outsiders offensive ratings, and it would take a lot of rebound for the Ravens to have another winning season.
Cleveland did very well in this year's draft, but we likely won't see immediate results on the field, especially if Josh Gordon gets suspended for the entire season.
Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.2 mean wins; SOS: 31)
Houston Texans: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-10 (5.9 mean wins; SOS: 27)
This is getting to be the story of the Colts: excellent quarterback leads mediocre team to 10 wins thanks to easy schedule. Then again, the whole division gets the benefit of easy schedules, thanks mostly to playing each other but also because they miss both western divisions in the rotating interdivisional format. In addition, the Colts were second in adjusted games lost behind the Giants last season, so they should be healthier (and thus better) in 2014. Losing Robert Mathis for the first four games could hurt a bit, though.
The Texans are in line for a big improvement thanks to both normal old regression toward the mean and the Plexiglass Principle, which says that teams that decline significantly tend to rebound the next year. Football Outsiders DVOA had Houston 16th on offense and fourth on defense in 2012; last year, the Texans were 29th on offense and 18th on defense. Unfortunately, the defensive rebound (including the addition of No. 1 overall draft pick Jadeveon Clowney) is probably not going to be enough to get them back into the playoffs, even with the easiest schedule in the league, because the quarterback situation makes the offensive rebound a big question mark.
The Titans are another one of those teams that seems to hover around 8-8 every single year, and the Jaguars are still working on rebuilding after cleaning up Gene Smith's mess.
[h=3]AFC West[/h]Denver Broncos: 12-4 (12.0 mean wins; SOS: 16)
San Diego Chargers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 14)
Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 5)
Oakland Raiders: 4-12 (4.1 mean wins; SOS: 1)
The AFC West is home to both the best and worst projected teams of 2014. You've now read through two articles in which I keep talking about how offense is more predictable than defense, so it is probably no surprise that the NFL's best offense gets the year's best forecast. There were also a couple of big free-agent signings: Aqib Talib probably cancels out the loss of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who was really good last year, and DeMarcus Ware is a big addition. Plus, the Broncos were actually one of the most injured teams in the league last year after above-average health in both 2011 and 2012. You know about defensive players like Von Miller and Chris Harris who went down near the end of the year, but don't forget they also lost left tackle Ryan Clady for the entire season.
On the other hand, we've got the Raiders, who lost their best offensive lineman (Jared Veldheer) and best defensive lineman (Lamarr Houston) in free agency. Right now we have them projected in last place for offense and 31st for defense, with the hardest schedule in the league. It's not going to be a pretty season in Oakland.
In between are the Chargers and Chiefs. The projection here may be a bit too sanguine about the Chargers maintaining last year's offensive renaissance, especially with offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt now gone to run the Titans. On the other hand, the Chargers' defense, which ranked dead last in DVOA last year, is almost certain to improve.
The Chiefs are living in a new world where they've gone from one of the easiest schedules in the league to one of the hardest. They also had the NFL's lowest adjusted games lost total in 2013 and are almost assuredly going to suffer more injuries in 2014.
