Pretty much, NO. Not just closers but all relievers. I watch at least a part of virtually every game every day and one of the biggest things I see is that very few pitchers 'attack' the strike zone. They dance around all over the place trying to be cute and they end up throwing a crap load of pitches at every batter.
I have considered this many times, but have never made the transition. Mostly because I haven't kept up with the actual statistics of it.
The way this season has gone however I might finally do it. I know I have lost 8-10 bets where I had a lead in the ninth inning and I've only won 2-3 bets where I was behind in the ninth. I'll see how it plays out for a few more months though before making any changes.
I have so many gamez when the starting pitcher can get 20-24 outs and the relievers cant even get an inning under their belts (or sometimes one out) ... walkz lead to runz... kind of depressing ... unless of course you take the over 2H in each game -- it has been profitable ... just my 2 centz ... now that Mariana R is gone
I miss the Nasty Boyz ... Dibble was insane .haha
I miss the Nasty Boyz ... Dibble was insane .haha
Justin,
I took 9 losses in the 9th inning over a 3 week span. Got 2 wins the same way. Papelbon on the first wednesday vs Texas should have alerted me.
I haven't done the stats either, or I would have switched too.
And what both of our (very small) sample sizes are telling me is that we are correctly handicapping the game in terms of the starters but ignoring the late inning closers/setup men. I plan on watching this closely as the year goes on to see if I need to either make changes in my handicapping or just start betting 1st 5
Maybe this could result in a significant bump in profit or maybe this is just an early season anomaly. It remains to be seen.
u gotta think that over time, has the way bookmakers make MLB lines correctly adjusted for the decline of bullpen talent and the shortening of starter's inning counts? I assume it has at this pt, but you never know.
First 5 is the way to go IMO to ensure you get the value on a starter you feel is there
First 5 is the way to go IMO to ensure you get the value on a starter you feel is there
