STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/30/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 5/30/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (May 29)
There have been 222 teams in NBA history to have fallen behind 3-1 in a best-of-seven series with just EIGHT of those teams (a 'whopping' 3.6%) coming back to win. The Pacers were well aware of that stat and probably also knew that in the LBJ/Wade/Bosh era (since 2011), the Heat were a PERFECT 7-0 in Game Five's when holding a 3-1 lead. Indiana got off to a good start, leading 22-16 after the first quarter but then scored only 11 points in the second quarter, while the Heat scored 26 to take a 42-33 halftime lead. It was 50-41 Miami with 6:56 left in the third quarter when the Pacers used an 11-0 run to take the lead. A 31-15 third quarter edge gave Indiana a 64-57 lead entering the 4th quarter.
The Pacers extended that lead to 77-66 but Miami responded with a 9-0 spurt to close within 77-75. It was tied at 81-all with 3:51 left but behind Paul George's 37-point effort (21 of those coming in the fourth quarter), the Pacers were able to edge the Heat 93-90, which will send this series back to Miami for a Game #6 on Friday night. George had six rebounds and six steals to go along with his 37 points plus also made just three turnovers. His frontcourt partners, David West and Roy Hibbert, also were very good. West added 19 & 9 and Hibbert, after playing 22 scoreless minutes in Game #4 (his FOURTH scoreless game of the 2014 postseason!), added 10 points and 13 rebounds. At this point, how can anyone make any sense out of Hibbert's game?
LeBron James was in big foul trouble early on and finished with just SEVEN points (on 2 of 10 shooting), the lowest scoring game of his entire playoff career. Chris Bosh had 20 & 10, while Dwyane Wade and Rashard Lewis each chipped in 18. Lewis made SIX of nine three-pointers in a head-scratching performance. This one-time star averaged 2.0 PPG versus Charlotte, 2.6 PPG against Brooklyn and in this series, didn't play at all in the first two games, then went scoreless (0 of 7 from the floor) in Games #3 and #4, BEFORE last night.
The win and cover by the home team Wednesday night makes them 8-1 straight-up and versus the number (89%) in this year's conference finals, after home teams had just barely won 50 percent of their games SU the first two rounds (38-34 or .528). Home teams were a woeful 27-43-3 ATS (that's 39.1%!) those first two rounds but have fought back to stand 46-35 (.568) for the postseason to-date, going 35-43-3 ATS (44.9% or minus-12.3 net games). Over players have had the best of it so far but Wednesday evening, under bettors caught a break, cashing by a half-point. Still, the tally since the start of the 2014 playoffs is 46 overs and 35 unders, a 56.8 percent edge favoring over bettors. "Zig-Zaggers" won with the Pacers Wednesday night and remain a "small winner" since the beginning, at 35-29-3 ATS (plus-3.1 net games).
It's Game #5 of the Western Conference finals Thursday at 9:00 PM EST on TNT, when the Oklahoma City Thunder visit San Antonio to take on the Spurs. The Spurs connected on 57.5 percent in Game #1 and 50.0 percent in Game #2, averaging 117.0 PPG. However, after shooting 39.6 percent in Game #3 (scored 97 points), the Spurs again shot poorly in Game #4 (39.8%) and scored even fewer points (92). The series is now tied at two-all. The Spurs have seen this 'nightmare' before. San Antonio won the first two games of the 2012 Western Conference finals against the Thunder, giving them an NBA record 20th consecutive victory bridging the regular season and the playoffs (16-3-1 ATS).
That wasn't all, as with that series shifting to the Chesapeake Energy Arena, the Spurs had won an amazing 37 of their previous 40 games, overall. However, the Thunder would win the next FOUR games, eliminating a San Antonio team which had looked nearly unbeatable! Is this "deja vu all over again?" The Spurs were cruising in the West finals in 2014 as well but that was before Thunder defensive wiz Serge Ibaka unexpectedly came back from a left calf strain. With renewed confidence and energy, Oklahoma City's youngsters have rolled past their veteran counterparts the last two games and the Spurs again face a VERY uncomfortable scenario.
They host Game #5 on Thursday evening in danger of falling behind 3-2. If they lose, they'll travel to Oklahoma City on Saturday where they've lost NINE straight games, facing elimination. Oklahoma City looks like a new team. The Thunder lost the first two games of this year's series by a combined 52 points, and a 112-77 loss in Game #2 left them embarrassed. Now, the Thunder appear to have things figured out. Oklahoma City played a more physical defensive style in Games #3 and #4 and used their length and athletic ability to disrupt the Spurs' normally precise offense. That sets the stage and the Spurs are favored by five points Thursday night (total is 206 1/2).
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Eastern Conference Finals
#521 INDIANA @ #522 MIAMI
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Heat -7, Total: 183) - LeBron James is coming off the worst playoff performance of his career but the Miami Heat are still in control of the Eastern Conference finals. James and the Heat will attempt to close out the Indiana Pacers when they host Game #6 on Friday night. James was plagued by foul trouble and played only 24 minutes in Game #5, managing a playoff career-low seven points on 2-of-10 shooting while Paul George dominated for the Pacers.
George scored 31 of his 37 points in the second half, including 21 in the fourth quarter, as Indiana overcame a rough first half and earned a 93-90 victory at home in Game #5. “The light needs to be on green for all of us,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “You need to go. You need to attack. You need to be aggressive. Paul took it and ran with it and took it to a crazy level.” Even with James off the floor half the game the Heat still had a chance in the final moments thanks to some strong 3-point shooting and a second straight big game from center Chris Bosh.
•ABOUT THE PACERS (66-34 SU, 47-52-1 ATS): George went 8-of-10 from the field in the fourth quarter and hit 3-pointers on back-to-back possessions late to give Indiana just enough cushion to hold off a late push from Miami. The All-Star forward got a break on the defensive end by not having to guard James most of the night. George does not expect things to come quite so easily in Game #6. “It’s going to be tough,” George told reporters. “We’re not expecting any of this to be easy, this whole trip. We’ve got to do one possession at a time down in Miami, and we can’t turn the ball over in Game #6. This Game #6 is going to be about performing like champions.”
•ABOUT THE HEAT (65-31 SU, 46-48-2 ATS): Miami does not need a lesson in playing like champions and is still on the verge of its fourth straight trip to the NBA Finals. James had more turnovers (three) than field goals in Game #5 but Rashard Lewis picked up some of the slack with six 3-pointers and the Heat still had a chance to win when James kicked a pass out to Bosh for a 3-pointer that failed to fall with 4.9 seconds left. “The game is reffed by the refs,” James told reporters. “They ref how they see it. We play it, and you live with the results.” Miami dominated Games #3 and #4 at home and is 7-0 this postseason in its own arena.
•PREGAME NOTES: Pacers C Roy Hibbert and G Lance Stephenson were fined for flopping in Game #5.... Miami F Chris Andersen (thigh contusion) missed the last two games and was limited in practice on Thursday.... George and F David West combined to score Indiana’s final 36 points in Game #5.... Indiana is 5-17 against the spread (22.7%) versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.... The Heat are 10-19 versus the spread (34.4%) after 2 or more consecutive overs, and 1-8 ATS (0.11%) after a game where they made 12 or more three-point shots this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the spread 504 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 465 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 682 times, while INDIANA won 297 times. In 1000 simulated games, 506 games went under the total, while 470 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the first half line 512 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 488 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 514 games went under first half total, while 450 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 47-41 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--INDIANA is 47-43 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--49 of 89 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 48-41 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--49 of 89 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Pacers are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Miami.
--Pacers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Pacers are 0-7 ATS L7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
--Over is 4-0 in Pacers L4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
--Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
--Heat are 4-0 ATS L4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 home games.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Under - Any team versus the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - good free throw shooting team - making >=76% of their free throws against a good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season.
(516-380 since 1996.) (57.6%, +98.6 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.4, Opponent 45.4 (Total first half points scored = 91.8)
The situation's record this season is: (7-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-24).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (47-44).
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