STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SUNDAY, JUNE 1st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 6/1/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #9
As we flip the calendar to June, school will be out and so too should the National Basketball Association playoffs be concluding sometime later this month. It’s also the time of the season when Major League Baseball pitchers look to ace assignments in hopes of keeping their teams in the pennant chase. To get a better feel on what to expect, StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst Larry Hertner examines their results from past assignments.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of June. On the flip side, Hertner has also listed pitchers that struggle in June team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each June over the last three years.
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS
•Clay Buchholz, (9-0, 100%) - The Boston Red Sox right-hander is in the midst of a horrific 2014 season at 2-4 with a Godzilla-sized ERA of 7.02. On May 28th he was placed on the DL for a hyperextended left knee and his return is not known.
•A.J. Burnett, (9-4, 69.2%) - After escaping the pressure of the Yankees, Burnett has evolved into a more complete pitcher and really mixes his pitches well. No reason he cannot continue his success of the past this month if he does a better job either working further inside or staying away from left-hand hitters, who are batting .297 against Burnett.
•Bartolo Colon, (9-2, 81.8%) - The rotund right-hander from the Dominican just turned 41 years old and has not had the same kind of success in New York as the past couple of seasons in Oakland. He can have another strong June if he spots his fastball better to hit the catcher’s target.
•R.A. Dickey, (12-4, 75.0%) - While the knuckleballer has not been terrific, he’s lowered his ERA a run and been part of the reason Toronto leapfrogged into first place in the American League East. With the Rogers Centre having the roof open more frequently with summer here, that should add a little more “dance” to Dickey’s main pitch to help his club keep posting wins.
•C.C. Sabathia, (12-4, 75.0%) - The big left-hander was placed on the disable list on May 14 with degenerative changes in his right knee and according to manager Joe Girardi, the soonest Sabathia will be back with New York is July.
•Max Scherzer, (11-4, 73.3%) - While Scherzer has not been as devastating as he was in 2013, he’s still allowing fewer hits to innings pitched and on pace to have well over 200 strikeouts. Right-hand hitters are right on the Mendoza Line with a .204 batting average against him. Expect the positive results to continue.
•Justin Verlander, (13-5, 72.2%) - It has been an unusual season to say the least for Verlander. For the first time since 2008, he’s well below a punch-out per inning (27.2 percent lower) and if he continues to dole out free passes at this rate, he could set a career high for walks. The velocity and command have not been there, will the warmer weather help Verlander heat up, or is something simply not right?
•C.J. Wilson, (13-3, 81.2%) - Though he’s behind the pace that made him a 17-game winner a season ago, Wilson’s other numbers are all better to this point of the season which suggests he could be a big winner the rest of the way. In his past 10 outings he has a sharp 2.54 ERA and he’s devouring those to the left side of the plate in the batter’s box, holding them to a .194 average.
•Jordan Zimmermann, (13-3, 81.2%) - The Wisconsin native season has gone like his team, not so hot, surrendering 38 base hits in 26.2 innings in May, not once getting beyond the sixth inning. This is uncharacteristic for Zimmermann who is usually very consistent. Let’s see if he turns it around this month and throws like he has in the past compared to opposing hitter’s raking him for .307 BA this season.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS
•Homer Bailey, (2-9, 18.1%) - The Reds right-hander might be 5-3 as the month starts, but his winning record will not last long if his ERA still remains around 5 and opposing batters continue to club him at a .295 BA rate. Bailey’s been like a batting practice pitcher versus lefties, who are hitting an astonishing .380 against him.
•Doug Fister, (3-10, 23.0%) - Fister did not join the Washington rotation until May 9 because of injury and has thrown fairly well to this point. A good chunk of the losses in June were thanks to a sorry Seattle clubs he toiled for. But given the Nationals scoring woes and disturbing defense, Fister might have to be great to alter his previous fortunes.
•Jeremy Guthrie, (4-9, 30.7%) - A middle of the rotation starter, Guthrie had a couple poor outings in May to help ‘raise’ his ERA to 4.14; however, he’s also been a victim of lack of run support and should have a better record than 2-4. While it is not a vast number of starts, be aware Guthrie has an ERA of over 6 in day games this season.
•Ricky Nolasco, (4-12, 25.0%) - Minnesota must have no pitching prospects ready to join the big club because how else could you explain starting Nolasco with a 6.12 ERA, with opponents hitting a robust .322 against his very hittable tosses.
•Bud Norris, (4-10, 28.5%) - No hiding from this fact, any baseball bettor would at least consider Norris when he’s pitching at home, but put a road uniform on him and he is 15-32 for his career and definite play against material.
•Anibal Sanchez, (4-8, 33.3%) - Throughout his career, Sanchez has never been a pitcher who has received proper run support. Though the Tigers offense has been solid most of the season, Sanchez has a .500 record with a stellar 2.49 ERA and opposing batters have a feeble .183 BA against him. If Detroit scores, he could reverse past indiscretions. If not, another losing month could occur.
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Betting Notes - Sunday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Hamels is 1-1, 2.89 in his last four starts.
-- Samardzija is 1-1, 2.38 in his last five starts. Lohse is 2-0, 3.32 in his last three outings.
-- Lynn is 2-0, 1.64 in his last three starts. Hudson is 3-1, 1.79 in his last six.
-- Simon is 2-1, 2.95 in his last three starts.
-- Greinke is 3-0, 2.60 in his last four starts. Volquez is 1-0, 2.45 in his last two outings.
-- New York is 3-0 when Whitley starts (0-0, 2.57). Twins won former Yankees Hughes' last seven starts (5-0, 2.14).
-- Buehrle is 5-0, 2.93 in his last six starts.
-- Guthrie has a 1.38 RA in his last two starts, but he hasn't won a game in his last nine starts; Royals are 3-2 in his road starts.
-- Bedard is 0-2, 7.80 in his last three starts.
-- Gray is 2-0, 2.36 in his last six starts. Weaver is 5-1, 2.21 in his last six.
-- Darvish is 3-1, 2.10 in his last four starts, but missed his last turn with some kind of physical issue.
-- Sale is 4-0, 1.73 in six starts this season.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Harang is 1-4, 6.35 in his last six starts. Eovaldi is 2-2, 5.49 in his last four.
-- Niese is 1-1, 5.16 in his last four starts.
-- Miley is 0-2, 4.58 in his last three starts.
-- Lester is 0-2, 5.71 in his last three starts.
-- Feldman is 1-1, 6.86 in his last four starts. Chen is 0-0, 7.71 in his last two starts; both games went extra innings.
-- Scherzer is 0-0, 8.31 in his last two starts. Elias is 0-2, 5.70 in his last four.
-- Roark is 1-3, 4.55 in his last five starts.
-- Chacin is 0-4, 5.20 in his five starts this season. Tomlin is 0-2, 6.55 in his last two outings.
-- Stults is 0-2, 5.19 in his last three starts.
•Totals
-- Six of Mets' last nine games stayed under total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Atlanta road games.
-- Nine of last fourteen Cub games stayed under total.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in Lynn's last four starts.
-- 12 of last 16 Arizona games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last 11 Dodger home games went over; eight of last 11 Pirate road games stayed under.
-- Last five Yankees home games stayed under total.
-- Over is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Kansas City games.
-- 12 of last 15 Boston home games stayed under.
-- Last three Feldman starts went over the total.
-- Eight of eleven Weaver starts went over the total.
-- Ten of last thirteen Detroit games went over total.
-- Under is 4-1-2 in last seven Roark starts.
-- Four of last five Colorado games went over the total.
-- Nine of last eleven White Sox home games stayed under.
•Hot Teams
-- Mets won four of their last five games.
-- Brewers won seven of its last ten home games.
-- Giants won eight of their last ten games.
-- Reds won three of its last four games.
-- Pirates won seven of its last eleven games.
-- Red Sox won their last six games, after losing previous ten.
-- Blue Jays won eight of its last ten home games.
-- Astros won seven of its last eight games.
-- Athletics won three of its last four games.
-- Nationals won its last two games, scoring 19 runs.
-- Padres won three of its last four games. Chicago is 7-5 in their last twelve games.
•Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost seven of their last eleven games.
-- Braves lost five of their last eight games. Miami lost four of its last five home games.
-- Cubs lost ten of their last fifteen road games.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games.
-- Diamondbacks lost its last two games, outscored 11-4.
-- Dodgers are 8-12 in their last 20 home games.
-- Twins lost seven of their last nine games. New York lost eight of last 12 at home.
-- Rays lost its last seven away games.
-- Royals lost five of its last seven games.
-- Orioles lost eight of their last ten road games.
-- Angels lost three of their last four games.
-- Tigers lost nine of its last thirteen games. Seattle is 6-8 in their last 14 home games.
-- Rangers were outscored 19-4 in first two games of series in Washington.
-- Rockies lost seven of its last nine games. Cleveland lost five of last eight.
•Umpires Trends
-- SF-StL-- Over is 7-2-1 in LBarrett games this season.
-- NY-Phil-- Eight of ten O'Nora games stayed under total.
-- Atl-Mia-- Under is 8-4 in GGibson games this season.
-- Chi-Mil-- Underdogs are 6-4 in Meals games this year. .
-- Pitt-LA-- Over is 8-1-1 in last ten Barber games.
-- Cin-Az-- Five of last six Barksdale games went over total.
-- KC-Tor-- Last five Vanover games went over total.
-- Min-NY-- Four of last five Gorman games stayed under.
-- Blt-Hst-- Six of eight Segal games went over the total.
-- TB-Bos-- Six of last eight Reyburn games went over total.
-- LA-A's-- Four of last five Culbreth games went over total.
-- Det-Sea-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Wendelstedt games.
-- Tex-Wsh-- Underdogs won seven of last eight Fagan games.
-- SD-Chi-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Scott games.
-- Col-Cle-- Eight of eleven Hoye games stayed under.
Diamond Trends - Sunday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 12-1 (+12.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.9, OPPONENT 2.9.
•PITTSBURGH is 13-1 UNDER (+12.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.5, OPPONENT 3.5.
•COLORADO is 1-11 (-13.2 Units) against the run line versus an American League team with they batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLORADO 3, OPPONENT 4.8.
•ALFREDO SIMON is 8-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season.
The average score was SIMON 3.4, OPPONENT 1.4.
•JHOULYS CHACIN is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997.
The average score was CHACIN 2.1, OPPONENT 3.9.
•JERED WEAVER is 11-1 (+14.3 Units) against the run line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WEAVER 5.8, OPPONENT 2.9.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (National League).
(38-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.5%, +30.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -188.8
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 2.3 (Average run differential = +2.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-2, +22.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (98-44, +11.8 units).
•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (LA ANGELS) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(42-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.7%, +37.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (39-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +125
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 26 (45.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-10, +27.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (50-29, +30 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (American League), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts.
(36-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +27.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.8, Money Line=-101.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 4.5 (Total runs scored = 9.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 28 (68.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5, +11.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (53-34, +16.1 units).
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w-thumbs!^
