Sunday: Reds in Name Only

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4-3 Saturday, winning less than one unit. Will update record at some point. Have an April record, a return in May record(started badly) and a pretty good record of the past week. I guess putting 2 units on the Astros got me what I deserve.

Arizona -1 (+118) 3 units.
Arizona Ml -128. One unit. I think this is a game of 2 pitchers and 2 teams possibly going in opposite directions. The Reds knocked around Brandon McCarthy Saturday, but he's garbage. Otherwise the Reds are almost incapable of sustaining a rally in the past week or two. They have a ratio of 80 Ks: 8 BBs in the past week, and are just not the same as in past years. It's not just Votto missing. The bottom of the lineup is punchless, Todd Frazier leads them with 28 RBIs, and honestly he's an average mlb hitter. Brandon Phillips is off and leadoff hitter, Hamilton, has 9 walks this year. C Mesoraco is hitting well, but that won't last. He's about a lifetime .220 hitter.

Wade Miley has been the best D-Back starter the past 2-3 years. I've always liked his game. He has a great change of speeds, usually good command, is very poised and competitive, and even hits well. His last outing seemed like he was turning his season around. Plus the Reds have been awful vs. LHP- hitting .226 with a league worst slugging pct. Alfredo Simon, the Reds' starter, has had a good year, but I doubt that it continues. As a long reliever, in the NL, he's been effective. Butbhis starting stats, going back to his Oriole days, were fairly ugly. Twice or 3 times through the lineup, hitters get to him. Arizona has hit better in recent weeks if you don't count a couple of poor outings vs. Cueto, Wainwright and some good relievers. I also like this game because Arizona really wants to end their home stand on a positive note. They aren't as bad as their record and want to prove it.
 

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Toronto -1 (-120) 2 units. This line looks like a bargain and I'm going to jump on it. Buehrle pitching well, 13 IPs, 2 ER in his last 2 starts vs. KC. The Blue Jays were finally stymied Friday by change up specialist LHP Vargas, but Guthrie is a whole different ball of wax. And I'm riding Toronto because they are jumping on any mistakes that a pitcher makes. Vargas is tough because he's so good at nibbling, and his change up is top notch, often dropping beneath the zone. Guthrie has given up 12 HRs in just 72 IPs this year and is staring to look Guthrie-like as he pitched in Colorado and Baltimore. I also think KC is still a hitting challenged team that looked just awful in their series with Houston, and why should this be any different?
 

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Miami -106. One unit ML. The Marlins should be favored by more considering the pitching match up. They hit just as well as the Braves, and face a soon to be waived Aaron Harang. Maybe he'll hang on, but that's his history. Harang was awesome in April, but in his last 6 starts has given up about 21 runs in 33 Ips. This line is low because after all, it's the Braves vs. the Marlins.
 

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Boston -1/2 (+100) First 5. This is a play that says that the patient hitting Red Sox get to Bedard early. Bedard relies a lot on his big sweeping curve, and if hitters lay off of it, they can get free pass or hit one of his high 80s fastballs. Lester pitches fairly well in Fenway, for a lefty. In his last 6 starts, only bad one- vs. Toronto during their hitting frenzy.
 

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Chicago WS -1/2 (-120) First 5. Two units. Stults numbers: Last 36 IPS, 51 hits, 22 runs. this year about one HR every 5.5 innings. The Padres BP much better than the Sox, and Sale much better than Stults. -120 just seems like a good price considering all this. Also, do the White Sox need to avoid further embarrassment at home vs. the lowly Padres? Yes.
 

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Guthrie at 31 pitches in the 1st, but no runs so far...
 

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Yankees offense seriously lacking. Couldn't hit 2 RH bums Friday and Saturday, and now lose to Hughes, another RHP. With all the left handed bats the Yankees have, their short porch in right, I'm thinking they're a play against in the coming weeks.
 

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Wade Miley….jeez, 4 homers to the Reds. The way the Reds are hitting it takes all week to get 4 homers usually. D-Backs are lucky to be down by only 1 run.
 

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