Tuesday: One Big Play From Breaking Out

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4-3, about +1 unit. Second day in a row I squandered a big day by playing a team that has played badly this year. Should have played Tampa yesterday, and Arizona Sunday for one unit. I would play against Tampa Tuesday but Archer has actually been pitching very well his last 3 starts.

First 5 Unit Play of the season:

Oakland -114 ML. 4 units
Oakland RL +140 One unit

The Yankees have a lot going against them. If they weren't called the Yankees, and at home, this line would be more like -135. The Yanks have a lot going against them. Lousy defense, lousy bullpen (Robertson, their closer flamed out just Sunday giving up 5 runs), Texeira and Beltran are out, McCann is not paying off, their old, and lately can't seem to hit anyone. In the past 3 weeks they have only ripped into Shelby Miller(who has struggled since least year), and had decent hitting games vs. Rienzo of CWS and the Pirates Volquez(neither are world beaters). If Tanaka isn't pitching, be careful to lay anything on them. They might come around because the AL East is weaker, but they'd have to be very healthy(not likely).

The A's have made a habit of winning the opening game of many series. On their last road trip they started by winning 5 in a row before running into the red hot Blue Jays. The A's can beat you 10-3 or by 3-2, but they play unselfishly and know how to win. Kazmir is the 1st lefty the Yankees have seen in a while, and he has been excellent. Always consistent, always very competitive, always pounding the strike zone. 13 BBS and 4 HRs in 68 IPs. Kazmir has a great bullpen to back him up. The only Yankees who have hit him are Texeira(not playing) and the younger Ichiro. Kuroda now pitches as if every inning is a struggle. He is an aging starter who no longer has the same confidence in his once great slider, and whose fastball has lost velocity. More of a nibbler now. He might go 5-6 IPs, but then the Yankee BP will be on call.
 

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Kuroda's eroding skills have been happening since last August. It's a large sample size. He never dominates anymore, but occasionally pitches well enough to keep the Yankees in the game. This year: 65 IPs, 75 hits, 40 runs(33 earned). 5 HRs in last 4 starts. Only his walks per inning look good. Kazmir, on the other hand, pounds the zone, but he has a good miss rate too.
 

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Dodgers/ White Sox- over 7.5 (+112) One unit. I know unders are the norm in Dodger Stadium. Though Noesi pitched well his last outing, it won't last. Dan Haren has also been fading badly for the Dodgers, giving up many HRs of late. The White Sox pen is lousy, and the Dodgers is average. Both pitchers will need the BP, count on it. Both lineups can hit fairly well, many power hitters between them. The Dodgers also hit RHP way better than LHP, the Sox slightly better.
 

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LAD/ CWS Prop: H+R+E 25 -110. One unit. This one can win even without a ton of scoring. Nice that it includes errors in that both teams are mediocre defensively. With both bullpens being suspect, and both teams capable of hits and homers, it should do well in the late innings.
 

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