STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, JUNE 5TH 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 6/5/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #10
•Umpire Trend Works In Tigers Favor Over Jays: It goes without saying that the man calling balls and strikes has a tremendous influence on the game, but umpire trends can be just as useful as any other statistic when it comes to capping baseball. Case in point: David Rackley will be behind the plate for Thursday's meeting between the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers. In Rackley's last 26 games, the home team has come out on top 21 times. The Detroit Tigers will try to continue the trend when their three-game series comes to a close against the AL East-leading Blue Jays. The Tigers are currently -160 faves.
•History Shows Reds Own Giants With Leake On Mound: The Cincinnati Reds have been dominating the San Francisco Giants with Mike Leake on the mound, and they'll get a chance to do it again at Great American Ballpark Thursday. The Reds are 5-1 in Leake's last six starts versus the Giants. Madison Bumgarner will counter for San Francisco. Cincy is currently a +112 dog for the NL matchup - a line that could put some cash in the pockets of bettors who are banking on Leake to continue his recent success versus The Orange and Black.
•Tanaka Continues To Cash In For Yanks Bettors: It's safe to say the Masahiro Tanaka experiment has worked so far. The Japanese pitcher has shone in the first two months of his young MLB career, going 8-1 with an ERA of 2.06. New York is 8-1 in his last nine starts. The Yankees have left much to be desired through the first two months of the season, but Tanaka has been the main reason New York is still in contention in the ultra-competitive AL East. The Yankees are currently -163 favorites against the Oakland Athletics to wrap up their three-game series Thursday at Yankees Stadium.
•Trout's Back Inflamed But OK Structurally: Tests showed Wednesday that Angels center fielder Mike Trout has inflammation in his back but no structural damage. Trout left Tuesday night's game against the Houston Astros because of stiffness after missing two weekend games. He did not start Wednesday night against the Astros, but he is hoping to return Thursday. "It's definitely good news," Trout told MLB.com. "I'll see how I feel tomorrow. Maybe I'll go tomorrow." Josh Hamilton started in Trout's place in center on Wednesday. Hamilton returned from the disabled list this week from a thumb injury. The 22-year-old Trout is batting .294 with 11 home runs, 38 RBIs and five stolen bases in 54 games this season.
•Rockies' Gonzalez Moves To DL: The Colorado Rockies placed outfielder Carlos Gonzalez on the 15-day disabled list and released catcher Jordan Pacheco on Wednesday. To fill the spots on the roster, the Rockies promoted outfielder Ryan Wheeler and catcher Michael McKenry from Triple-A Colorado Springs. Gonzalez goes on the DL for the first time this season despite injuring the finger several times previously. He reinjured the left index finger during Tuesday's game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Gonzalez told reporters that he might need surgery. Doctors informed him that he could have a growth on the finger.
He has missed four games and left three others early this season because of a broken blood vessel that caused swelling. The 28-year-old Gonzalez is batting .255 in 52 games this season, well off his .307 career average. Corey Dickerson will start in Gonzalez's place on Wednesday night against the Diamondbacks. He replaced Gonzales during Tuesday night's game. The Rockies designated Pacheco for assignment, giving them 10 days to trade or release him. If he passes through waivers, he could go to Triple-A. The 28-year-old was batting .236 in 22 games this season.
•Yankees Shuffle Pitchers In Roster Moves: The New York Yankees made several moves with their pitching staff Wednesday. The team added left-hander Wade LeBlanc and right-hander Jose Ramirez to their active roster, designated right-hander Alfredo Aceves for assignment and demoted right-hander Preston Claiborne to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Ramirez has been impressive for the Triple A team. He has given up just one run in 10 2/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. The Yankees claimed LeBlanc off waivers from the Los Angeles Angels on Tuesday. He pitched 6 1/3 innings of relief on Friday evening, allowing four runs on six hits and two walks.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Bumgarner is 5-0, 2.31 in his last six starts. Leake has 2.59 RA in his last six.
-- Fister is 3-0, 2.45 in his last three starts.
-- De Grom has a 2.42 RA in four starts, but no wins.
-- Tanaka is 3-1, 1.82 in his last four starts.
-- Happ is 3-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
-- Peacock is 1-0, 2.13 in his last couple starts.
-- Wacha is 2-0, 1.73 in his last four starts.
•Cold Pitchers
-- Kendrick is 1-2, 4.99 in his last five starts.
-- Wood has an 8.00 RA in his last five starts.
-- Nicasio is 1-2, 5.16 in his last four starts. Arroyo is 0-2, 4.95 in his last three.
-- Pomeranz is 1-1, 6.75 in his last two starts.
-- Verlander is 2-2, 7.92 in his last four starts.
-- Tillman has a 10.13 RA in his last three starts. Lewis is 1-2, 6.75 in his last three outings.
-- Skaggs is 0-2, 6.23 in his last couple starts.
-- Turner is 1-3, 5.56 in his last four starts. Odorizzi is 0-2, 5.79 in his last three outings.
-- Ventura is 0-4, 5.91 in his last four starts.
-- Peralta is 0-4, 3.94 in his last five starts. Correia is 1-3, 5.53 in his last five.
•Totals
-- Seven of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Four of last six Giant games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Cub games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last ten Arizona road games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Yankees home games.
-- Five of last seven Detroit games stayed under total.
-- 12 of last 16 Baltimore games went over the total; six of last eight Texas home games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Angel games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-0-1 in last nine games at Miller Park.
-- Six of last seven Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight St Louis games.
•Hot Teams
-- Giants won ten of their last 13 games. Cincinnati won four of last five.
-- Nationals won four of its last five games.
-- Cubs won five of their last six home games. New York won six of their last nine games, but lost last two.
-- Diamondbacks won four of its last five road games.
-- Blue Jays won 16 of its last 19 games.
-- Athletics won its last five games, scoring 37 runs.
-- Orioles won its last four road games.
-- Marlins won their last three games, allowing five runs.
-- Twins won three of its last four games.
•Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost six of their last seven games.
-- Rockies lost seven of its last eight games.
-- Yankees lost 12 of its last 16 home games.
-- Tigers lost 11 of its last fifteen games.
-- Rangers are 4-11 in its last fifteen home games.
-- Angels lost six of their last nine games; Houston lost three of last four. .
-- Rays lost its last nine games.
-- Brewers lost six of its last nine road games.
-- Royals lost six of their last seven home games. St. Louis lost six of their last eight games overall.
•Umpires Trends
-- Phil-Wsh-- Five of last seven Kulpa games stayed under.
-- SF-Cin-- Home side won eight of last ten Morales games.
-- NY-Chi-- Last seven Fagan games stayed under the total.
-- Az-Col-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Estabrook games.
-- A's-NY-- Five of last seven Hallion games stayed under.
-- Tor-Det-- Underdogs won four of last five Rackley games.
-- Balt-Tex-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven LBarrett games.
-- LA-Hst-- All three Campos games went over the total.
-- TB-Mia-- Six of seven Conroy games went over the total.
-- StL-KC-- Under is 7-1-1 in last nine Scott games.
-- Mil-Min-- Seven of nine Segal games went over the total.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
•NY METS are 14-4 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 4.6, OPPONENT 3.2.
•OAKLAND is 8-0 UNDER (+8.1 Units) against American League East opponents this season.
The average score was OAKLAND 2.5, OPPONENT 3.5.
•CINCINNATI is 18-5 (+16.4 Units) against the run line versus a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.2, OPPONENT 3.1.
•BRONSON ARROYO is 10-2 (+11.8 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .280 or better since 1997.
The average score was ARROYO 5.8, OPPONENT 3.9.
•JUAN NICASIO is 14-2 OVER (+12.1 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NICASIO 7.5, OPPONENT 5.7.
•KYLE KENDRICK is 13-0 (+13.7 Units) against the run line in road games versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game since 1997.
The average score was KENDRICK 7.1, OPPONENT 3.7.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (WASHINGTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -National League, starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings.
(42-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.0%, +29.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -151.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 2.6 (Average run differential = +2.9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3, -0.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-6, +15.4 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (79-48, +9.6 units).
•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (SAN FRANCISCO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -National League, with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season.
(65-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.3%, +39.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (46-37 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -142
The average score in these games was: Team 4, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 43 (51.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (12-3, +7.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (42-13, +23 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (93-55, +9.9 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (LA ANGELS) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -American League, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(83-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +45.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9.1, Money Line=-102.2
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 5.6 (Total runs scored = 11.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 69 (53.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (10-2, +8.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-22, +24.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (222-205, +10 units).
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w-thumbs!^
