STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 6/8/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 6/8/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Finals Betting News & Notes
In the first National Basketball Association Finals game of his reign as the league's commissioner, Adam Silver had to deal with a sweltering arena. Compared to what he's gone through in recent weeks, that seemed like a breeze. Speaking to The Associated Press on Friday at an NBA Cares event, Silver said he's thrilled that the league's attention can be on the championship series between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs - and not, as it was for so much of the postseason, on the off-the-court matters involving the banishment of Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling and now the looming sale of that franchise.
"No question," Silver said. "In fairness to all the players and the teams, they worked so hard to get to this moment and a hot building is part of the competition in essence. And all those other things that we've been talking about the last several weeks are not." Posing for photos with Spurs players, coach Gregg Popovich, general manger R.C. Buford and others, Silver was all smiles when the ceremonial red ribbon was cut at the league's latest "Learn & Play Center" at a San Antonio elementary school. It's the 897th time that the league has been involved with opening a facility like that, and another similar event will be held in Miami when the series shifts there next week.
Silver made no prediction, other than saying he thinks the Heat-Spurs matchup could be a long series. He also said he was satisfied that the air conditioning issues that overshadowed Game #1 have been cleared up and will not affect play when the series resumes in San Antonio on Sunday night. "We learn something new all the time," Silver said. "The league checklist continues to get longer, the things that we need to ensure are functioning properly before games."
The Sterling matter was Silver's first true test since taking over for David Stern as commissioner, and many players raved about his response, both in terms of message and swiftness. Silver barred Sterling for life after the longtime owner acknowledged making racist comments on tape, plus fined him $2.5 million. Now, the Sterling matter looks to be essentially over. The Clippers are poised to be sold to former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer for $2 billion, and Sterling's attorney said earlier this week that issues between Sterling and the NBA will be resolved without need for a lawsuit - a decision that basically clears the biggest hurdle that would have precluded a sale.
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National Basketball Association Finals
#703 MIAMI @ #704 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Spurs -4.5, Total: 199) - The air-conditioning system in San Antonio has been fixed and LeBron James attempts to move past a dreadful fourth-quarter experience as the Miami Heat seek to bounce back from a Game #1 loss when they visit the Spurs in Sunday’s Game #2 of the NBA Finals. James experienced severe cramping and dehydration issues and missed most of the final 7 1/2 minutes as temperatures soared above 90 degrees due to an electrical malfunction at AT&T Center. San Antonio closed with a 31-9 spurt for a convincing 110-95 victory.
James was affected much more than any other player in Thursday’s oven-like conditions and told reporters on Friday that he received 2 1/2 bags of intravenous fluids afterward. “For obvious reasons, I was angry, I was disappointed in myself,” James said. “I did everything that I needed to do to prepare for this game, prepare for this moment and to feel like my body failed me, I was angry in the fact that I couldn’t help my team get over the hump.” James departed with 3:59 remaining after he scored a basket to pull the Heat within 94-92 and the Spurs went on a game-ending 16-3 surge after he departed.
•ABOUT THE HEAT (66-32 SU, 47-49-2 ATS): James scored 25 points in 33 minutes before exiting, and he first became concerned about the conditions in the first half. He loaded up on fluids at halftime but his body was unable to hold up and he was in the game for only 34 seconds over the final 7:31 before heading to the locker room prior to the end of the contest. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters the Spurs should be fined if the situation happens again. “We’re not making any excuses for it,” Spoelstra said. “It was an extreme, unfortunate situation for both teams. It probably won’t happen again, ever.”
•ABOUT THE SPURS (75-26 SU, 55-46-0 ATS): While James couldn’t hold up in the heat, San Antonio veteran Tim Duncan thrived with 21 points on 9-of-10 shooting to go with 10 rebounds. The 38-year-old power forward played 33 minutes and operated at will in the interior. “Every once in a while, I get a jump shot from 15 to 18 feet, but mostly my effective range is in there right now,” Duncan said during Friday’s media availability. “I’m going to pick-and-roll and try to get open shots and try to take advantage of the rotation if they’re trapping.” Duncan shot 49 percent against Miami in the 2013 Finals while averaging 18.9 points and 12.1 rebounds.
•PREGAME NOTES: Duncan posted his 156th career postseason double-double in Game #1, one shy of the record held by former Los Angeles Lakers star Magic Johnson.... Miami forced 23 turnovers in Game #1 and G Ray Allen had five of the Heat’s 14 steals.... Spurs SG Danny Green had three 3-pointers in the opener – he made a NBA Finals record 27 against the Heat last season.... The Heat are 54-37 against the spread (59.3%) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... San Antonio is 10-1 versus the spread (90.9%) in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 537 times, while MIAMI covered the spread 463 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 645 times, while MIAMI won 331 times. In 1000 simulated games, 509 games went under the total, while 465 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 509 times, while MIAMI covered the first half line 491 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 539 games went under first half total, while 461 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 22-18 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 24-17 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--28 of 40 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 21-15 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--23 of 39 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.
--Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.
--Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 Sunday games.
--Under is 6-1 in Heat last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Spurs are 13-3 ATS L16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 NBA Championship games.
--Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play On - Home teams of -145 to -350 versus the money line (SAN ANTONIO) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more.
(73-19 since 1996.) (79.3%, +39.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -174.2
The average score in these games was: Team 106.5, Opponent 99.2 (Average point differential = +7.3)
The situation's record this season is: (8-1, +4.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3, +11.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (34-10, +12.6 units).
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