Saturday: Cards Overrated?

ofred · Jun 7, 2014

2-2 Friday, About -1.80 units. Worse start for Darvish in a while. I thought when he had a 4-0 lead it looked certain to win the 5 IP play.

Toronto -1 (-112) 4 units. St. Louis is the NL champ, have some all-stars, and usually get to post-season play. Great franchise. But right now, their lineup looks weak. If Wainwright or Wacha aren't pitching, they are NOT winning much. Even when Wainwright and Wacha ARE pitching, the games are close. The Cards still have a core of good hitters, although not all of them are hitting now. The other guys in the order are not producing. There's a lack of power for sure. But also a lack of the big inning. I doubt they'll get that off of Buehrle. St. Louis already struggles with LHP, hitting .227 this year- with just 5 HRs. They really looked miserable vs. Hudson, another soft tosser. Buehrle pitches to weak contact better than just about any pitcher in the league. And if you're a team in a slump, you'd rather face a predominant fastball pitcher. The Cards did not get to Stroman Friday, who is a recent call up, or other pitchers recently, that they would have beaten up in the past.

Then there's Shelby Miller. He has lost his magic from last year, and actually showed some regression in the 2nd half. His pitches have less movement, he is striking out batters far less, and is having a problem with the long ball. 10 HRs in just 68 IPs. His BB to K ratio is also poor. Not good vs. the power hitting Jays. Toronto should have won by 5 or 6 Friday, but left many guys on base. The Jays have an excellent BB:K ratio, showing that they have a more patient approach at the plate. About 2:1, while many teams are 4:1 or 5:1.

ofred · Jun 7, 2014

KC -121 ML. One unit. Would take this for more, but Duffy can be unreliable. However, he is nearly unhittable vs. LH batters(.036), which the Yankees have many. I also think the Yanks are still in a hitting funk. The Royals BP is top notch. I have seen Phelps pitch twice this year. His command can escape him at any time, and usually has a bad inning somewhere between 1-6. His pitch count can rise in a hurry, and that means the Yankee BP will be needed. Large advantage to KC there. Also, beating the Yankees, and having them in town(which draws large crowds), is still fun and still motivating to the players.

ofred · Jun 7, 2014

Minnesota -1 (+113). Two units. Turned this into a + bet by playing the -1. I still think the Twins are motivated to go on a winning campaign. They almost came from behind Friday after being down 5-0. Unfortunately, their pitching will eventually bring them down. Feldman, the Astros' pitcher, is getting battered of late. In his last 20 IPs, 38 hits, and 18 runs. The Astros have a good closer, but those middle inning relievers might just throw gas on the fire. The Twins' starter, Gibson, is a ground ball specialist. He went through a rough stretch, but looks like he is pitching better his last 2 starts. I just can't see the Twins losing the first 2 games of this series.

Mlink · Jun 7, 2014

Good luck but just one thing

Yankees only have two lefty hitters they play against lefties.. Gardy and ellsbury both whom hit well against lefties

Ichiro will sit for sori
Mccan will sit for murphy
The rest are RH or switch hitters

Just pointing that out to you

Best of luck

Love the Jays today

ofred · Jun 7, 2014

Mlink said:
Good luck but just one thing

Yankees only have two lefty hitters they play against lefties.. Gardy and ellsbury both whom hit well against lefties

Ichiro will sit for sori
Mccan will sit for murphy
The rest are RH or switch hitters

Just pointing that out to you

Best of luck

Love the Jays today

Brett Gardner and Kelly Johnson too. I hope Soriano, Roberts and Murphy(he's coming down fast) are in the lineup. Righties only hit .227 vs. Duffy so not bad there.

ofred · Jun 7, 2014

Oakland -1 (-118) 4 units. Glad this line finally came out. What more can you say about the A's? Last night, another late inning win. Today's game should be easier. Orioles do not probably think Gausman is quite ready. His stats in the mlb and recent minors seem to say that. But Miguel Gonzalez is on the DL, and Bud Norris might join him. Gausman got called up May 14 for a start, got shelled and was sent back down. He's had pneumonia in May, and in the minors has only pitched 16 IPs in the last 2 1/2 weeks, giving up 9 runs. Sonny Gray has been the best of the A's starters. His bullpen is a little overworked, but they are pretty deep. Gray pitches like a veteran- using excellent command, varying speeds, and has an extensive repertoire of pitches. Zach Britton, the new O's closer(who has been lights out), is probably unavailable going 2 innings last night.

As for the A's at the plate, 14 HRs this past week, and a BB:K ratio of better than 2:1. If wasn't for the Blue Jays (and Tanaka), they'd be leading the mlb in OBP. I'll have to say their best attribute is that they work over pitchers every inning. They can score early, late- or scratch a run across when it looks like they are being pitcher dominated. And they can score in bunches. Against Gausman, that could happen today.

ofred · Jun 7, 2014

LA Dodgers -1 (-108) One unit. I must be nuts playing the Dodgers here, but maybe they'll duplicate last year's June surge. Anyways, Chacin is no longer a sinker pitcher and is paying the price. He never pitched all that well in Coors, and now that he's more of a fly ball/ or mixed pitcher, he's got less chance of success. I'll take Greineke and a Dodgers team that is glad to get out of LA. The road can bring a team together. The Rockies have cooled down, hitting-wise, and with no CG, they look less formidable.

eggshot · Jun 7, 2014

Going Tor, LAD and Oak as well. Might even take Oak and Tor at -1.5. Shelby Miller's home/away splits are alarming, Molina gets the night off, and the Jays are at full strength.

ofred · Jun 7, 2014

eggshot said:
Going Tor, LAD and Oak as well. Might even take Oak and Tor at -1.5. Shelby Miller's home/away splits are alarming, Molina gets the night off, and the Jays are at full strength.

Thanks for the info on Molina.

Forgot to add that Gausman is probably the best kind of pitcher for Oakland. They will work him early, forcing him to come middle of the plate more. Expect some early walks or some early hits.

eggshot · Jun 7, 2014

Well, 1st bet gone. Stupid Loup lost us the game, not the offense, and def. not Buehrle.

Jays also couldn't tee off of Miller.

Biz · Jun 7, 2014

eggshot said:
Well, 1st bet gone. Stupid Loup lost us the game, not the offense, and def. not Buehrle.

Jays also couldn't tee off of Miller.

Loup wasn't the reason.

They scored ZERO so don't know why you would blame a relief pitcher and not the offense.

eggshot · Jun 7, 2014

Biz, a 1 run game is diff from a 5 run game. If they were trailing 1-0 in btm of 9th, a single, sac bunt and another single could've given them another chance.

ofred · Jun 7, 2014

Could be an ugly day. A's losing. Got to be more careful going against the sharp money.

ballerhanz · Jun 7, 2014

Let's not forget Miller is an elite talent. Cards bats will come around eventually. Jays still a good team. Buerhle just didn't have it.

eggshot · Jun 7, 2014

Not saying that the Cards are overrated, but with the way Miller has pitched in his career, I think Tor was the right side today. Loup really f*cked up

Greenbacks · Jun 7, 2014

eggshot said:
Not saying that the Cards are overrated, but with the way Miller has pitched in his career, I think Tor was the right side today. Loup really f*cked up

I think Tor was the right side today.

How could Toronto have been the right side if they lost?

It`s impossible to be on the right side of a losing play.....Never forget that!

Biz · Jun 8, 2014

eggshot said:
Biz, a 1 run game is diff from a 5 run game. If they were trailing 1-0 in btm of 9th, a single, sac bunt and another single could've given them another chance.

C'mon Egg.

Yes, its different. But you are conveniently ignoring the first 8 innings of ineptitude.

Lots of things "could" happen. Loup wasn't the problem. A 1-0 deficit doesn't mean they manufacture a run as you say. Doubt they lay down any bunts too. This team wins by swinging away. It just didn't happen today.

eggshot · Jun 8, 2014

Biz and greenbacks, I'm just a little bitter over the loss. I've played amateur baseball and I definitely prefer trailing by a run instead of trailing by 5 heading to the last inning.

Kudos to Miller for pitching a great game, but again, blame falls upon Loup, and Jays hitters (never waited for their pitch to come). Tough luck for buehrle.