Service Plays Sunday 6/15/14

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[h=1]Today's NBA Picks[/h][h=2]Miami at San Antonio[/h]The Heat look to avoid elimination on Sunday night and come into Game 5 with an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games when trailing in a playoff series. Miami is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 6/15/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Sunday, 6/15/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Finals Betting News & Notes
•Role Players Have The Spurs Rolling: If the polling for National Basketball Association Finals MVP was being done before Game #5, no one from the star San Antonio trio of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili would have led the balloting. That would sound like a good sign for the Miami Heat. It's not - not with the way Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw are playing for the Spurs.

They are role players in name only. Leonard has led the scoring charge in the last two games and Diaw has more assists than any other player in the series. They're a big reason why the Spurs can wrap up a championship on Sunday night, when they take a 3-1 series lead into Game #5 of the finals. Leonard averaged 24.5 points on 68 percent shooting in Games #3 and #4. And in the Spurs' three wins, they've outscored Miami by 65 points with Diaw on the floor.

The Spurs won by 19 and 21 in the two games in Miami and are shooting 54.2 percent in the series. The NBA Finals record for a series of any length is 52.7 percent.

•Game #4 Of NBA Finals Draws 9.3 Rating: San Antonio's victory over Miami in Game #4 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night drew an average television audience of 14,964,000 viewers and a 9.3 national rating on ABC. Nielsen said Friday that the broadcast peaked with 16,742,000 viewers from 11-11:15 p.m. EDT. The series is averaging 14,931,000 viewers and a 9.1 rating.
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National Basketball Association Finals

#709 MIAMI @ #710 SAN ANTONIO
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ABC - Line: Spurs -6, Total: 195) - The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from their fifth National Basketball Association title and can claim their first championship since 2007 when they host the Miami Heat in Sunday evening’s Game #5. San Antonio rolled to back-to-back dominating wins in Miami to take a 3-1 series lead and is in good shape when you consider no NBA team has ever recovered from that deficit in NBA Finals play. The Spurs’ three victories are by an average of 18.3 points.

Heat standout LeBron James was among the stunned players over how easily San Antonio dismantled Miami the past two games. “I mean, they smashed us,” James told reporters. “Two straight home games, got off to awful starts. They came in and were much better than us in these two games. It’s just that simple.” Spurs veteran Tim Duncan expects a fierce effort from the Heat as San Antonio attempts to avenge last season’s finals loss to the Heat. “We’re going to use our home court and we’re going to come with the same focus that we did in these last two games, and hopefully close it out at home,” Duncan told reporters.

•ABOUT THE HEAT (67-34 SU, 48-51-2 ATS): James is averaging 27.5 points in the series and is very much aware that no team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals. He asserts that the players only have themselves to blame for the hole Miami finds itself in but doesn’t want to look past Sunday and ponder the historical aspect. “It’s never been done before but we’re still a confident bunch, even though our heads are lowered down right now,” James told reporters. “Of course, being down 3-1 and losing two straight games at home, that’s just human nature. But we’ve still got to go out and play on Sunday.”

•ABOUT THE SPURS (77-27 SU, 57-47-0 ATS): Small forward Kawhi Leonard produced back-to-back stellar efforts in Miami – averaging 24.5 points and nine rebounds in the two games – but versatile Boris Diaw has also been a valuable performer since San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich inserted him into the starting lineup for Game #3. Diaw had a solid all-around game with eight points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Game #4 and is averaging 6.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the series. “He knows what’s going on most all the time,” Popovich told reporters. “At the offensive end he’s a passer. He understands mismatches. He knows time and score. At the defensive end, he knows when to help. He’s active. So he just helps the whole team have a better IQ, I think.”

•PREGAME NOTES: Duncan is averaging 15.8 points and 10.5 rebounds in the series and has three double-doubles with Thursday’s being the 158th of his postseason career to break Magic Johnson’s record.... The Heat have committed 62 turnovers in the series with James (18) and G Dwyane Wade (15) being the biggest culprits.... San Antonio G Danny Green was 10-of-13 from the field in the two games in Miami and is 9-of-17 from 3-point range in the series.... Miami is 45-30 against the spread (60.0%) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game on the season over the last two seasons.... The Spurs are 40-23 versus the spread (63.4%) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting less than 24 free throws/game, including 26-13 ATS (66.6%) 2nd half of the season this season.

StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the spread 513 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the spread 463 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SAN ANTONIO won the game straight up 628 times, while MIAMI won 351 times. In 1000 simulated games, 627 games went over the total, while 352 games went under the total. *EDGE against the total =OVER.

-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the first half line 484 times, while SAN ANTONIO covered the first half line 471 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 607 games went over first half total, while 393 games went under first half total. *EDGE against first half total =OVER.

•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SAN ANTONIO is 24-19 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--SAN ANTONIO is 26-18 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--30 of 43 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996.

--SAN ANTONIO is 23-16 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--25 of 42 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.

--Under is 26-12 in the last 38 meetings.
--Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
--Over is 4-1 in Heat last 5 Sunday games.
--Under is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.

--Spurs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games.
--Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.
--Spurs are 8-1 ATS L9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) after 42+ games, in non-conference games, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite.
(131-77 over the last 5 seasons.) (63.0%, +46.3 units. Rating = 2*)

The average total posted in these games was: 196.4
The average score in these games was: Team 101, Opponent 98.7 (Total points scored = 199.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 106 (51% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (26-21).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (79-46).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (373-320).
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StatSystemsSports
Inside the Paint- Sunday

San Antonio’s road to redemption is nearly complete as the Spurs are one victory from claiming the fifth title in franchise history. Following a pair of wins in South Florida where the Spurs shot lights out, the defending Western Conference champions return to the AT&T Center (8:00 PM EST) on Sunday night to host a Heat squad that may be nearing the end of their dynasty.

With the NBA Finals tied at 1-1, the Spurs connected on 75% of its shots from the floor in the first half of Game #3 and built a 25-point lead en route to a 111-92 triumph over the Heat as four-point underdogs. The Spurs didn’t skip a beat in Thursday’s Game #4, jumping out to a 55-36 halftime advantage as San Antonio rolled to a 107-86 victory to cash as five-point ‘dogs. Gregg Popovich’s team improved to 12-4 ATS (75.0%) the last 16 games in the postseason, including three straight wins and covers on the highway.

Betting Notes - Sunday
It seemed impossible for the Spurs to repeat their shooting effort from Game #3, but San Antonio wasn’t too far off in Game #4 by knocking down 57% of its attempts from the floor. Every game in this series San Antonio has relied on someone different to carry load, but Kawhi Leonard put up two of the best efforts in his career in Miami by scoring 29 points in Game #3 and a team-high 20 points and 14 rebounds in Game #4. Boris Diaw was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time in the series on Thursday and nearly put up a triple-double with eight points, nine rebounds, and nine assists.

The Heat’s run at a three-peat looks to be over barring a miracle comeback, as Miami isn’t receiving the balanced scoring and contributions that San Antonio is getting right now. Dwyane Wade captured Finals MVP when the Heat won their first title in 2006, but the Miami guard is coming off one of the worst playoff performances in his career by shooting just 3-of-13 from the floor for 10 points. LeBron James can carry the load only so much, putting up 19 points in the third quarter of Game #4 and scored a game-high 28 points. James is averaging 27 points per game and is probably the Most Valuable Player in this series, as the best thing for Miami is to hit the road after two poor performances at American Airlines Arena.

Hoop Trends - Sunday
•MIAMI is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after a game with 35 or less rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 100.7, OPPONENT 87.8.

•SAN ANTONIO is 26-9 UNDER (+16.0 Units) in home games versus slow-down teams averaging 76 or less shots/game since 1996.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 90.5, OPPONENT 80.9.

•MIAMI is 28-54 (-31.4 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.4, OPPONENT 48.7.

•SAN ANTONIO is 19-6 UNDER (+12.4 Units) the 1rst half total after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 53.8, OPPONENT 45.3.

•ERIK SPOELSTRA is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 25 or more fouls as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was SPOELSTRA 104.8, OPPONENT 101.4.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (SAN ANTONIO) - an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days.
(23-2 since 1996.) (92.0%, +20.8 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 55.3, Opponent 45.4 (Average first half point differential = +9.9)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
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Heat/Spurs #5: The Game Inside the Game
By DAVID MALINSKY

A series that many hoped would resemble the seven-game thriller of last June has been filled with Mastery, not Mystery. So as the teams head to San Antonio for Sunday night, the question becomes whether there is anything that the Heat can do to prevent a Championship trophy, on Fathers Day, going to someone called “Pops”.

The Miami issues in this series have been documented on these pages. The Game #2 win was not good basketball from the Heat, but rather a great individual performance from LeBron James that overcame a mediocre floor game. Outside of that, considering that the Spurs are flowing offensively as well as any team since the Magic-Worthy-Kareem Lakers, it has not been a surprise that they were able to take advantage of the Miami holes. It is how easily it has happened that would have been difficult to anticipate – no team in NBA Finals history ever won back-to-back road games by 40 points.

To recap the cracks in the Heat armor, it is a bit of a Good News/Bad News situation. The good is that Erik Spoelstra had a cast of veterans on the bench that he could mesh into just about any flow that was needed, and through these playoffs there has been a lot of lineup juggling, largely successful through the earlier rounds. The bad is that the San Antonio chemistry and execution is at such a high level that it takes a tremendous amount of teamwork to be able to match up. Spoelstra’s current configuration lacks that teamwork. Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen and Norris Cole are getting many more minutes than they had been accustomed to, and there just is not any way to get them into a defensive rotation that can cope with the way that the Spurs are moving the ball, especially when there is not a shot blocker to protect the rim. Imagine Spoelstra’s desperation when he went to Toney Douglas down 46-28 in the second quarter, the first time Douglas had left the bench in the first half of these playoffs.

San Antonio shot a sparkling 58.2 percent in the two wins at Miami, with 46 assists paving the way. It was a beautiful ballet of basketball to watch. Until the Heat got the ball, when those same chemistry issues came into play. By halftime of Game #4 Miami was down to a 50-50 ratio of assists to turnovers for the entire series, and imagine how ugly the Game #4 bottom line would have looked if not for that late barrage from James Jones (4-4 for 11 points, nailing all three triples) – the Heat were sitting on 75 with a little over 2:00 remaining.

There is also an issue that goes beyond the tactical X’s and O’s. A couple of weeks ago there was a take here on Dwayne Wade, and how the injury time off may have actually kept him a little fresher for the playoffs, with his spark vs. Indiana reminiscent of his former abilities. On Thursday Wade simply looked gassed. There was no lift in his legs, and he only managed 3-13 from the field, with two rebounds, over 32:54. He does get an extra day off before Game #5 tips off, but that may not be enough.

For as good as Miami has been in winning back-to-back titles, there simply may not be any options to correct the flaws this matchup brings. Spoelstra can not build a defensive chemistry over two practice sessions, and with Kawhil Leonard gaining in confidence as he guards James, the answers on offense are problematic as well. James has continued to shoot well from the perimeter, but as was discussed on this page earlier in the series, Gregg Popovich will give him those shots all evening.

Consider this – James was a terrific 19-31 from the field in the two games in Miami, including 6-12 from beyond the arc, and the Heat lost by 40. How does that happen? It happens because the offense works best when he is getting to the basket to break down the defense and create for the others. Leonard and the Spurs are closing that off, with part of the result reflected in James only getting to the line for nine FT attempts in the two defeats. As for the other part of the equation, on Thursday he only had two assists, and for the series it has been 18 turnovers vs. 15 successful dishes.

Now on to Sunday. The early markets have settled in at San Antonio -6, which marks the biggest underdog price Miami has been offered in the 380 games of the James era. But even the most ardent of Zig-Zag followers are going to find it difficult to reach into their pockets. If there is a chance for the Heat to be in the hunt it will not come from X’s and O’s adjustments, but from James reaching back for a special effort, or Wade finding his legs again. As such, if you harbor Miami notions you may want to look at individual James props instead, rather than a team wager – it would be no surprise if he played well into the 40’s if the game is competitive.

That last line perhaps says it all. In the Game #4 prelude the closing line was that for the Heat to win - “they will have to execute a level they might not have reached yet in the 2014 playoffs”. The gap really is that wide, and if Sunday brings us the last chance to see the Spurs in this configuration (Tim Duncan could make this his NBA Swan Song), the level of basketball they have played is something that will be appreciated far into the years ahead.

Game 5 - Heat at Spurs
By Kevin Rogers

San Antonio’s road to redemption is nearly complete as the Spurs are one victory from claiming the fifth title in franchise history. Following a pair of wins in South Florida where the Spurs shot lights out, the defending Western Conference champions return to the AT&T Center on Sunday night to host a Heat squad that may be nearing the end of their dynasty.

With the NBA Finals tied at 1-1, the Spurs connected on 75% of its shots from the floor in the first half of Game 3 and built a 25-point lead en route to a 111-92 triumph over the Heat as four-point underdogs. The Spurs didn’t skip a beat in Thursday’s Game 4, jumping out to a 55-36 halftime advantage as San Antonio rolled to a 107-86 victory to cash as five-point ‘dogs. Gregg Popovich’s team improved to 12-4 ATS the last 16 games in the postseason, including three straight wins and covers on the highway.

It seemed impossible for the Spurs to repeat their shooting effort from Game 3, but San Antonio wasn’t too far off in Game 4 by knocking down 57% of its attempts from the floor. Every game in this series San Antonio has relied on someone different to carry load, but Kawhi Leonard put up two of the best efforts in his career in Miami by scoring 29 points in Game 3 and a team-high 20 points and 14 rebounds in Game 4. Boris Diaw was inserted into the starting lineup for the first time in the series on Thursday and nearly put up a triple-double with eight points, nine rebounds, and nine assists.

The Heat’s run at a three-peat looks to be over barring a miracle comeback, as Miami isn’t receiving the balanced scoring and contributions that San Antonio is getting right now. Dwyane Wade captured Finals MVP when the Heat won their first title in 2006, but the Miami guard is coming off one of the worst playoff performances in his career by shooting just 3-of-13 from the floor for 10 points. LeBron James can carry the load only so much, putting up 19 points in the third quarter of Game 4 and scored a game-high 28 points. James is averaging 27 points per game and is probably the Most Valuable Player in this series, as the best thing for Miami is to hit the road after two poor performances at American Airlines Arena.

Miami’s 13-game winning streak in the playoffs off a loss came to a close on Thursday, but the Heat is back in the underdog role in Game 5. Erik Spoelstra’s club has won and covered just once in three tries as a ‘dog this postseason, while going 2-0 SU/ATS since 2012 when receiving points off a defeat in the playoffs (which includes a win Game 2 of this series against San Antonio).

Chris David says on Sunday night that Miami does have a tall mountain to climb, “Based on the first four games, especially the last two, it’s hard to make an argument for Miami in Game 5 even though the point-spread does appear to be a tad inflated. However, when San Antonio wins on the hardwood it wins at the betting counter, rather easily too. In their 15 postseason wins, the first three came by 5, 4 and 6 points to the Mavericks. In the last 12 victories, every game was decided by double digits.”

Rallying from a 3-1 deficit will be tough for the Heat, as David believes there is another approach to possibly making money with Miami, “There have been 31 teams who have trailed 3-1 in the NBA Finals and amongst them, only 15 have managed to force a Game 6 but there is a caveat for bettors. Nine of those teams were playing at home in Game 5 and now that the series is back to a 2-2-1-1-1 format, San Antonio is hosting the fifth encounter. I don’t believe the Heat are dead just yet and I feel the adjusted series price on the Heat at 9/1 odds is very generous, especially when you’re backing the best player in the world. Small risk, big reward in my opinion!”

The biggest issue with Miami so far in this series is not being able to keep up with San Antonio’s offense. David breaks down things from the totals perspective, “The ‘under’ cashed in Game 4 but one more 3-pointer by Miami at the end almost cost you. San Antonio’s hot-shooting has balanced out the slow pace by both clubs and the Heat’s offense has been, by their standards, poor. I believe the best look on Sunday will be the ‘under’ in Miami’s team total, which is hovering around 95 points. The most they scored in this series is 96 and if you believe the Heat can win, it will have to be with their defense.”

Leonard is currently the favorite to claim the MVP, as oddsmakers have made the former San Diego State standout an overwhelming 5/12 (Bet $100 to win $41) favorite to win the NBA Finals Most Valuable Player. David says this award though is up for grabs, depending on what happens on Sunday, “Leonard has been great the last two games but unless he blows up again in Game 5, I believe this award will go to Tim Duncan, who is a media favorite. Bettors can get down on a solid 8/5 (Bet $100 to win $160) price for Duncan. And if you believe the Heat can rally and win a couple more games, James at 10/1 odds looks very appealing.”

MVP Odds
Kawhi Leonard, Spurs (5/12)
Tim Duncan, Spurs (8/5)
Tony Parker, Spurs (5/1)
LeBron James, Heat (10/1)
Boris Diaw, Spurs (20/1)
Manu Ginobili, Spurs (50/1)
Danny Green, Spurs (75/1)
Dwyane Wade, Heat (100/1)
Chris Bosh, Heat (150/1)

The Spurs are currently listed as six-point favorites on Sunday night, while the total is set at 195 ½. Game 5 tips off at 8:00 PM EST and can be seen on ABC.

Heat try to stay alive

Miami (67-34) at San Antonio (77-27)

NBA Finals
Game 5 – San Antonio leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line and Total: San Antonio -6, Total: 195

The NBA Finals head back to Texas on Sunday as the Spurs look to close out the series in five games and get a revenge victory over the Heat after last year’s upsetting loss.

This series has been absolutely dominated by San Antonio, which is coming off yet another big win in Game 4. The club breezed to victory by a score of 107-86 as five-point underdogs in Miami while shooting an incredible 57% from the field; marking the third time in this series that the team has shot that well. As usual, the Spurs were getting great shots with tremendous ball movement, finishing with 25 assists in the game while absolutely dominating the boards as they outrebounded the Heat 44-27. Miami has actually had a few great shooting performances of their own in this series, hitting better than 51% of its field goals in both Games 2 & 3, but has just seemed outmatched, as LeBron James is the only player on the team with consistent numbers throughout the NBA Finals.

Going back on the road does not bode well for the Heat either as they are just 27-23 SU (24-24 ATS) in away games over the entire season. Meanwhile, San Antonio probably feels like it has a lock on this series since the club is an incredible 42-11 SU (28-25 ATS) when playing at home while going 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) there in the playoffs.

These two clubs have obviously had a storied matchup over the past few seasons against each other and Miami holds a slight 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) edge when facing the Spurs over the past three seasons. In that time, San Antonio is 4-3 (SU and ATS) in its home games.

Some trends that bettors may want to take notice of is that the Heat are 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or fewer rebounds over the past two seasons while the Spurs are 22-10 ATS (69%) in the past two seasons after a game where they made at least 55% FG.

Fatigue will likely be the only type of concern that needs to be watched in this contest, as neither side is nursing any significant injuries for this important game.

The Heat have seen their scoring output drop in the playoffs (97.8 PPG) while they have put up just 92.8 PPG in the NBA Finals through four games. Their defense has also been much worse in this series as they are allowing the Spurs to drop 106.0 PPG on them, which is much greater than the 95.1 PPG (48% FG) allowed over the entire postseason.

SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.5 SPG in series) scored a team-high 28 points in Thursday’s loss while failing to record a steal for the first time in six games. He has made 60% of his shots in the NBA Finals while also hitting an incredible 11-of-18 threes.

SG Dwyane Wade (16.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG in series) played very poorly in Game 4, shooting just 3-for-13 from the field with 10 points while adding four assists and four steals. The game was his worst shooting performance of the postseason, and he has also really struggled with ball security in this series as he has turned it over 3.8 times per game.

C Chris Bosh (14.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG in finals) averaged 18.0 PPG in the two games on the road in this series but netted just 10.5 PPG in the two home contests while grabbing just seven total rebounds. He has also been non-existent on the defense side of the ball with just one block in the series after averaging 1.3 BPG in the playoff games before the finals.

SG Ray Allen (11.0 PPG in series) has made 8-of-19 (42%) threes in this series but has scored double-digit points just twice.

The Spurs have been on an absolute tear through these playoffs, hitting 49% of their shots while averaging 106.5 PPG. Their defense has been great as well, giving up just 97.5 PPG (45% FG) to their opponents.

PF Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG in series) had 10 points and 11 boards in Thursday’s victory and now has three double-doubles in the first four games of the NBA Finals. He was tremendous in the first two contests of this series when playing at home, averaging 19.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG.

PG Tony Parker (18.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.0 SPG in finals) had 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting in Game 4 while recording a series-low two assists. He’s been amazingly consistent over these four games and has actually shot 8-for-15 from the field in three games against the Heat so far while making just 13-of-18 from the charity stripe in the series.

SF Kawhi Leonard (16.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.3 SPG in finals) was the difference maker in the two games at Miami, leading the team in scoring in both wins while averaging 24.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 SPG. He has done well shooting from all areas of the floor, making 23-of-39 (59%) shots overall and 8-of-15 from behind the arc.

SG Manu Ginobili (13.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in finals) had only seven points in Thursday’s victory, but was great in the two games at home (17.5 PPG, 7.5 APG) to start this series.

NBA

Miami at San Antonio

Off two impressive 19 and 21 point victories in Heats' back yard shooting an incredible 58.2% from the field, 43.9% from three-point land and hitting 77.2% from the free throw line the Spurs look primed to win Game 5 Sunday in Alamo City along with their fifth NBA championship. The Spurs executing at such a high level, Miami unable find answers, Bovada looks for San Antonio to finish off Miami Sunday night as they have installed Spurs as whopping 6-point favorites. Handing LeBron James and the Champs a boat load of points is a risky proposition, though in this case the amount of supporting data in favor of San Antonio makes it much less risky. Duncan and company shredding Heat for 100 or more points in three of four meetings along with holding Heat under the century mark in all four games sets the table. Spurs have cashed 6-of-8 as home chalk of 6.5 or less off a double digit post season victory. Spurs take to the floor 44-24 ATS this season netting 100 or more points, 23-16 ATS as home chalk after netting 100 or more the previous game, 25-8 ATS as a home favorite holding opponents to 100 or less points. On the other side, Heat enter 3-17-1 ATS on foreign hardwood when giving up 100 PPG, 8-19 ATS on the road scoring 100 or more.

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) after 1 or more consecutive unders, an good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games
95-50 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.5% | 40.0 units )
9-7 this year. ( 56.3% | 1.3 units )

NBA | MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout win by 15 points or more
73-20 since 1997. ( 78.5% | 38.2 units )
8-2 this year. ( 80.0% | 3.0 units )

NBA | MIAMI at SAN ANTONIO
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive home losses
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

2Halves2Win MLB...

J Mo’s Plays:


1* GAME - PIT @ MIA: Pirates ML (+125: Risking 1.00 units to win 1.25 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME - MIN @ DET: Tigers ML (-155: Risking 1.55 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)
1* GAME - KC @ CWS: Royals ML (-155: Risking 1.55 units to win 1.00 units) - TBD (TBDu)

Against the Number

Switzerland +148
Honduras +1.5 -119
Bosnia and Herz/Argentina Over 2.5 (-123)

[h=1]Today's MLB Picks[/h][h=2]LA Angels at Atlanta[/h]The Angels wrap up their series tonight in Atlanta against a Braves team that is 2-9 in Mike Minor's last 11 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. LA is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+120). Here are all of today's picks.

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Miami won last five Alvarez starts (1-0, 0.68 last four).
-- Kennedy is 3-1, 3.24 in his last four starts. Matsuzaka is 2-0, 3.86 in three starts for the Mets.
-- Cubs won five of last six Wood starts, scoring 43 runs.
-- Fister is 5-0, 1.95 in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-1, 1.24 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 4-2, 2.17 in his last six starts. Arroyo is 5-2, 2.91 in his last eight.

-- Nolasco is 2-0, 4.34 in his last three starts.
-- Workman is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts.
-- Peacock is 2-0, 2.66 in his last four starts.
-- Iwakuma is 1-1, 1.85 in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Worley is making his first '14 start; he is 19-18, 4.05 in 56 career big league starts- he was 3-2, 4.30 in seven AAA starts this year.
-- Leake is 1-3, 6.45 in his last four starts. Estrada is 2-2, 6.68 in his last five.
-- Burnett is 1-2, 6.92 in his last four starts.
-- Cardinals are 0-3 in Garcia home starts (0-0, 6.16).
-- Nicasio is 0-3, 14.49 in his last three starts.

-- Tillman is 1-1, 9.30 in his last five starts. Happ is 1-2, 6.50 in his last three.
-- Kluber is 0-1, 7.94 in his last two starts.
-- Porcello is 1-3, 7.43 in his last four starts.
-- Sheilds has a 6.66 RA in his last four starts, but Royals won his last seven starts, scoring 48 runs. Rienzo is 0-3, 11.25 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 0-3, 5.20 in his last five starts.
-- Nuno is 0-2, 5.40 in his last six starts. Chavez is 1-3, 5.40 in his last four.
-- Martinez is 0-2, 12.46 in his last three starts.

-- Santiago is 0-4, 5.55 in his last five starts. Minor is 0-2, 4.81 in his last four.

Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Worley 0-0; Alvarez 4-13 (0 of last 4)
-- Kennedy 3-14 (0 of last 8); Matsuzaka 1-3
-- Wood 3-13; Burnett 4-14
-- Leake 2-13; Estrada 5-13 (0 of last 4)
-- Fister 3-7; Garcia 1-5
-- Nicasio 6-13 (5 of last 7); Bumgarner 3-14
-- Arroyo 6-13; Beckett 1-12

-- Nolasco 3-13; Porcello 6-12
-- Happ 0-8; Tillman 6-14 (6 of last 9)
-- Kluber 3-14; Workman 2-4
-- Shields 2-14; Rienzo 3-9
-- Price 6-14; Peacock 4-9
-- Nuno 4-10; Chavez 4-13
-- Martinez 3-7; Iwakuma 1-8

-- Santiago 2-8; Minor 2-8

Totals
-- Six of last nine Cub games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Pittsburgh games went over total. .
-- Eight of last eleven games at Citi Field stayed under.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Cincinnati games. Over is 8-1-1 in last ten games at Miller Park.
-- Seven of last eight Cardinal games stayed under.
-- 10 of last 15 Arizona road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Colorado road games went over.

-- Last six Baltimore games stayed under total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in last ten Detroit games.
-- Seven of last eight games at Fenway Park stayed under total.
-- Seven of last eleven White Sox home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Tampa Bay road games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last nine Bronx games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Seattle home games stayed total.

-- Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Atlanta games.

Hot teams
-- Phillies won four of their last five games.
-- Pirates won five of their last six games.
-- Milwaukee won five of its last seven games. Reds won five of their last seven road games.
-- Cardinals won five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
-- Colorado won its last four games, last two in ninth inning.

-- Red Sox won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Kansas City won its last six games.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four games.
-- Astros won five of their last seven home games.
-- A's won four of their last five home games. Bronx won nine of its last thirteen road games.
-- Rangers won their last three games.

Cold teams
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Marlins lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last ten games. San Diego lost nine of last 12.
-- Nationals lost their last three games.
-- Arizona lost five of its last six games.
-- San Francisco lost five of its last six games.

-- Toronto lost six of its last eight games. Orioles are 8-9 in last 17 at home.
-- Detroit is 6-10 in its last sixteen home games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last eight games.
-- Indians lost four of their last five games.
-- Tampa Bay lost 15 of its last 18 games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last nine home games.

-- Atlanta lost five of its last six home games. Angels lost eight of their last e12 road games.

Umpires
-- Chi-Phil-- Road team won last eight Cederstrom games; last three went under the total.
-- Col-SF-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Muchlinski games.
-- Pitt-Mia-- Home side won eight of last ten TWelke games.
-- SD-NY-- Six of seven Woodring games went over total.
-- Wsh-StL-- Last ten Porter games stayed under the total.
-- Cin-Mil-- Under is 10-2-1 in Eddings games this season.
-- Az-LA-- Ten of last thirteen Davidson games stayed under.

-- KC-Chi-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Emmel games.
-- Cle-Bos-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Guccione games.
-- Tor-Balt-- Four of last five Wendelstedt games stayed under.
-- Min-Det-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Buckminster games.
-- TB-Hst-- Six of nine Pattillo games stayed under the total.
-- NY-A's-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Scott games.
-- Tex-Sea-- Underdogs won last five Cuzzi games.

-- LAA-Atl-- All four Campos games went over the total.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h][h=2]Atlanta at Washington[/h]The Mystics play host to an Atlanta team that is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 road games. Washington is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

Fezzik

1* Spurs/Heat over 195.5

2* WNBA Atlanta/Washington over 153

Hondo

Slumping Hondo, who dropped three games Thursday and two Friday, added another one to the loss column Saturday night when the Yankees failed to carry out their mission, causing the deficit to grow to 1,395 herzogs.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch will go with a 10-unit play on Mister Fister to punch out the Cards. Also, 10 on that Bumgarner and the Giants to climb past the Rockies, and 10 on the one and only Jimmy Shields to hit all the right notes against the White Sox.

Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs

Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 196)

The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from their fifth NBA title and can claim their first championship since 2007 when they host the Miami Heat in Sunday’s Game 5. San Antonio rolled to back-to-back dominating wins in Miami to take a 3-1 series lead and is in good shape when you consider no NBA team has ever recovered from that deficit in NBA Finals play. The Spurs’ three victories are by an average of 18.3 points.

Heat standout LeBron James was among the stunned players over how easily San Antonio dismantled Miami the past two games. “I mean, they smashed us,” James told reporters. “Two straight home games, got off to awful starts. They came in and were much better than us in these two games. It’s just that simple.” Spurs veteran Tim Duncan expects a fierce effort from the Heat as San Antonio attempts to avenge last season’s finals loss to the Heat. “We’re going to use our home court and we’re going to come with the same focus that we did in these last two games, and hopefully close it out at home,” Duncan told reporters.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened at -5 before moving to -5.5 and now currently sit at -6. The total opened at 197 before being bet down to 195.5.

INJURY REPORT: N/A

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Heat hadn't lost back-to-back games in the postseason since 2012, but that string of excellence came to an abrupt halt in Game 4. Miami's role players are "M.I.A.", the Spurs' incredible depth has played a big part in their lop-sided 3-1 lead. I said after Game 2 that this series would be decided by the head coaches. Eric Spolestra is getting out-maneuvered by Gregg Popovich, who with one more coaching masterpiece will cement his legacy as one of the greatest in the history of the league." Covers Expert Nick Parsons.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James is averaging 27.5 points in the series and is very much aware that no team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals. He asserts that the players only have themselves to blame for the hole Miami finds itself in but doesn’t want to look past Sunday and ponder the historical aspect. “It’s never been done before but we’re still a confident bunch, even though our heads are lowered down right now,” James told reporters. “Of course, being down 3-1 and losing two straight games at home, that’s just human nature. But we’ve still got to go out and play on Sunday.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: Small forward Kawhi Leonard produced back-to-back stellar efforts in Miami – averaging 24.5 points and nine rebounds in the two games – but versatile Boris Diaw has also been a valuable performer since San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich inserted him into the starting lineup for Game 3. Diaw had a solid all-around game with eight points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 4 and is averaging 6.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the series. “He knows what’s going on most all the time,” Popovich told reporters. “At the offensive end he’s a passer. He understands mismatches. He knows time and score. At the defensive end, he knows when to help. He’s active. So he just helps the whole team have a better IQ, I think.”

TRENDS:

*Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
*Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 8-3 in Heat last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
*Under is 26-12 in the last 38 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of Covers users are backing the Heat +6.

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Sunday

Kansas City -145

Pirates/Marlins under 8