….but I don't think they're going to get it. There are a few reasons why Miami could win or cover this spread. First, we all know that selling the NBA, and more ads, is preferred by the league. So prolonging the series would be beneficial. But the Spurs are at home, and any bias by officials toward a Miami win will be muted by this. And, this was also the situation for game 4 and look how badly Miami lost there.
Second, LeBron might have one of his monster games, accompanied by hot outside shooting by Wade and Allen. This is not all that likely since both Allen and Wade look a bit fatigued(old?) from playing defense, and are not getting the open looks like they are used to. Wade is just not the same player. Third, there is always some doubt that SA might not have the inner drive to win the series so easily. All this being said, my money is on:
San Antonio -5.5. Large.
1) San Antonio is getting better series by series, game by game, no matter who or where they play. Those 2 easy wins in Miami were not flukes. I don't think all of the intensity or competitiveness that the Heat can muster will make any difference. I can't remember the last time I saw a road team win two in a row like that in an NBA finals. The Heat couldn't even close the gap in garbage time.
2) Miami made it through the weak East, but you could see that they weren't quite the same this year or in the playoffs. They luckily caught the Pacers on the downslide, with Hibbert going busto, but really it isn't just the difficulty of 3-peating, they are just not as good as previous years. They beat Charlotte with a hobbled Al Jefferson; knocked out the old, overrated Nets(without their good starting center), but at many times looked right at their level. I think we should all get it out of our heads that this Miami team is what they were, and not the new and lesser team that they are now. Last year's Heat would have won game 3 or 4 and probably kept the other game close. I'm starting to think game 2 was just an anomaly, a game that the Heat won on a night the Spurs were a bit off.
3) Man, was I off about Miami's defense. Statistically, they allowed more points to Indiana and Brooklyn (per 100 possessions) than in the regular season. They don't have an answer for the Spurs' ball movement. When they get aggressive outside, they pay inside. When they clog the lane, they pay with great Spurs' shooting from the perimeter. Even LeBron, a normally great defender, looks out of place at times. With defense, you are good "by habit", not by flipping on the switch when you absolutely have to have it. The Spurs just look younger and fresher on defense. Their defense played against the offense rich West, and looked very good vs. potent offenses like OKC and Portland.
4) The biggest hurdle for SA is their desire level this next game even though they have a huge advantage, being up 3-1 and 2 games at home to go. This is why it's called gambling. No one knows until game time whether they'll have intensity, that will to play at their top level. If they do, they should cover the spread. They've shown in all their playoff games that their bench is so good, that if they get a big lead, they don't play sloppy or stop scoring. I'm saying yes to SA having that "will and desire" because Miami's confidence is shaken, they might get dispirited if they fall behind at any time, SA is at home and played so magnificently in the past 3 series at home. SA is also a different animal. They are in the zone right now, have won 2 blow outs on the road(which is really hard to do), are coached very well, are getting revenge for last year, and finally- they play TEAM basketball better than anybody else and right now are playing at a new level even better than SA played earlier in the playoffs.
Second, LeBron might have one of his monster games, accompanied by hot outside shooting by Wade and Allen. This is not all that likely since both Allen and Wade look a bit fatigued(old?) from playing defense, and are not getting the open looks like they are used to. Wade is just not the same player. Third, there is always some doubt that SA might not have the inner drive to win the series so easily. All this being said, my money is on:
San Antonio -5.5. Large.
1) San Antonio is getting better series by series, game by game, no matter who or where they play. Those 2 easy wins in Miami were not flukes. I don't think all of the intensity or competitiveness that the Heat can muster will make any difference. I can't remember the last time I saw a road team win two in a row like that in an NBA finals. The Heat couldn't even close the gap in garbage time.
2) Miami made it through the weak East, but you could see that they weren't quite the same this year or in the playoffs. They luckily caught the Pacers on the downslide, with Hibbert going busto, but really it isn't just the difficulty of 3-peating, they are just not as good as previous years. They beat Charlotte with a hobbled Al Jefferson; knocked out the old, overrated Nets(without their good starting center), but at many times looked right at their level. I think we should all get it out of our heads that this Miami team is what they were, and not the new and lesser team that they are now. Last year's Heat would have won game 3 or 4 and probably kept the other game close. I'm starting to think game 2 was just an anomaly, a game that the Heat won on a night the Spurs were a bit off.
3) Man, was I off about Miami's defense. Statistically, they allowed more points to Indiana and Brooklyn (per 100 possessions) than in the regular season. They don't have an answer for the Spurs' ball movement. When they get aggressive outside, they pay inside. When they clog the lane, they pay with great Spurs' shooting from the perimeter. Even LeBron, a normally great defender, looks out of place at times. With defense, you are good "by habit", not by flipping on the switch when you absolutely have to have it. The Spurs just look younger and fresher on defense. Their defense played against the offense rich West, and looked very good vs. potent offenses like OKC and Portland.
4) The biggest hurdle for SA is their desire level this next game even though they have a huge advantage, being up 3-1 and 2 games at home to go. This is why it's called gambling. No one knows until game time whether they'll have intensity, that will to play at their top level. If they do, they should cover the spread. They've shown in all their playoff games that their bench is so good, that if they get a big lead, they don't play sloppy or stop scoring. I'm saying yes to SA having that "will and desire" because Miami's confidence is shaken, they might get dispirited if they fall behind at any time, SA is at home and played so magnificently in the past 3 series at home. SA is also a different animal. They are in the zone right now, have won 2 blow outs on the road(which is really hard to do), are coached very well, are getting revenge for last year, and finally- they play TEAM basketball better than anybody else and right now are playing at a new level even better than SA played earlier in the playoffs.
