Early Value Bets For College Football Games

Search

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
[h=1]Early value bets for CFB games[/h][h=3]Tennessee, Notre Dame among most underrated; Oregon overrated[/h]By Will Harris | ESPN Insider
in.gif


Each summer at downtown Las Vegas' largest resort, the Golden Nugget sports book, bettors line up for the release of early lines on 200 college games. One of Nevada's oldest operations, the Nugget is in its eighth year of raising the curtain on wagering for the upcoming season. It's true that some Caribbean shops have had prices posted on Week 1 games for over a month, but the Nugget's advance numbers span the entire calendar.
The SEC leads the way with 41 league games on the board, followed by Pac 12 (32), ACC (31), Big 12 (27) and Big Ten (16). Auburn, Georgia, UCLA, Texas, USC, Oregon and Oklahoma saw the most games posted with nine apiece.
<OFFER></OFFER>
Oregon, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Florida State are the only teams favored in every game. In just three matchups -- Iowa at Minnesota, West Virginia at Iowa State and Miami (FL) at Louisville -- were the Nugget's oddsmakers unable to declare a favorite.
Outside of new Big Ten members Maryland and Rutgers, Indiana was the only power conference school without a game on the board. The Nugget's list includes just eight conference games from among the have-not leagues, all from the Mountain West and American, but other smaller schools are represented among the 45 non-conference tilts listed.
Having the bulk of the power-five league schedules on the board allows us to piece together the oddsmakers' power ratings and the presumed pecking order within each conference. A comparison of all the SEC numbers reveals that Mississippi is a narrow choice for fourth-best in the West, edging out Texas A&M and Mississippi State. The Nugget brain trust has also installed Baylor -- one of seven teams to be favored in all but one game -- a clear second to Oklahoma in a crowded and uncertain Big 12. Their position is hedged somewhat in the Pac-12 South, where USC is installed as 11-point home chalk over an Arizona State team that in turn is laying a touchdown at home to UCLA. Come season's end, though, it is the Bruins giving the Trojans 4.5 points.
We can also compare these early openers to historical prices, both within individual series and in certain situations. If BYU is still laying Boise State a field goal when Oct. 25 rolls around, it will mark the first time the Broncos have been a home underdog since 2001. Florida State is giving Clemson, the projected second-place finisher in its division, what may seem a whopping 17 points. But the Tigers have taken that much weight from the Noles seven times in the past 20 years, and not once in that span from another foe.
Notre Dame has fielded a few ugly teams since coach Lou Holtz moved on, but only once before have things been rough enough for the Irish to find themselves underdogs to rival Stanford in South Bend. Texas has never been an underdog in six games, as the Nugget suggests.
Having so much data to parse gives us a great early look at the oddsmakers' starting point for comparing teams within the five major conferences. Here's a league-by-league takeaway from the Nugget's openers, including a look at the schools the Vegas brass might be overrating or selling too short.

[h=3]SEC

There were few surprises among the SEC numbers. Texas A&M, as expected, received a significant downgrade in the wake of Johnny Manziel's departure. The Aggies are dogs in five of eight conference games.
Tennessee appears undervalued, showing as a favorite just once, that as a three-point choice over Vanderbilt in Nashville. In the seven other games listed, the Vols are receiving an average of 13.5 points, getting weight at home three times. We think the guys across the counter may be giving too much consideration to the well-publicized fact that the team returns no starters along either line. Overall, though, these position groups have both added talent and more experience in the system than last year's lines did. This is an improved team across the board, and a 20-point offering from Alabama will be worth a look in October, especially as Vol Nation will be beyond amped for Lane Kiffin's return to Neyland Stadium.
The game that will define the season, though, is not Alabama but Florida. Tennessee opens with Utah State and Arkansas State at home before hitting the road as a big underdog at Georgia and Oklahoma. All projections will have the Vols sitting at 2-2 when Florida comes to town as a 4.5-point road favorite. This is a game Tennessee can, should and basically must win, and it looks like one of the most attractive prices on the Nugget's board.

<H3>Big Ten</H3>
No particular values stand out among the Big Ten matchups. It's evident that Minnesota is getting much more respect than this time last year, so our best pick for a sleeper versus the spread is Michigan. The offense is clearly a work in progress under new coordinator Doug Nussmeier, but Greg Mattison's defense can carry this team. This is unlikely to be a historically bad Michigan edition even if the offense continues to struggle, and the Wolverines' slate of prices is a touch out of line with historical norms.

<H3>Big 12</H3>
It's evident that the oddsmakers don't expect much from Texas this year. We're on board with that thought as well as the idea that Baylor is Oklahoma's chief challenger in the Big 12. This program is the new Oregon in both style and substance. The offense is still as good as advertised, but it's the gradual maturation of Phil Bennett's defense that has us leaning Baylor's way in most of their posted games.
The Bears' defensive line could be one of the season's most unexpectedly dominant position groups. No program with Baylor's postseason track record and omnipresent penalty issues is likely to capture a national title, but Art Briles and the Bears are here to stay as a conference power.

<H3>Pac-12

We'll spend the next year or two fading an Oregon program with an overmatched coaching staff. The Ducks sit atop the Nugget's power ratings, and we couldn't disagree more. Marcus Mariota's return has Oregon popularly cast as a national title contender, but think back to Geno Smith's final season at West Virginia -- sometimes elite star power and proven schemes are not enough.
We're not eager to jump in every time this explosive bunch gives four or five scores to an outmanned visitor, but we expect Oregon to show poorly down the stretch and finish the season unranked. Oregon is laying 20 points to Utah, Oregon State and a Washington outfit that's our pick to supplant the Ducks as Stanford's primary threat in the North within the next couple years. It will be the last time we see prices like these for a while, and we'll be looking to attack the Ducks with solid conference foes as the season progresses.
Steve Sarkisian's new team, USC, is getting a lot of respect from these early lines as well. The long-term outlook for the Trojans is favorable under the new regime, but a loaded UCLA squad is a step ahead in 2014.

<H3>ACC</H3>
When Bobby Bowden retired, it figured to be Frank Beamer's ACC, but it hasn't gone that way on Jimbo Fisher's watch. Beamer has now shaken up Virginia Tech's aging offensive coaching staff, but longtime lieutenant Bud Foster still runs the defense. And despite just 15 wins the past two years, this crew believes it has another run in store before its Hall of Fame boss retires. We agree, and find the Hokies and their improved rushing attack good value in several spots, including near-pick-ems with Pittsburgh and Miami (FL) as well as a trip to Columbus as an 18-point underdog.
We're not buying Florida State as a national favorite any more than Oregon. Last year's squad enjoyed several advantages that this year's will not, including a dream schedule down the stretch and the best team chemistry and unity its head coach has seen in his three decades in the sport. We're firm in our belief that this staff will not be able to win a national championship under the new format, but unlike Oregon, there is not serious risk of the wheels coming completely off and the staff losing control of the team.
The Seminoles' floor is relatively high, and they will likely be highly ranked all year and log double-digit wins. Also, unlike Oregon, the early prices are not inflated even over last year's gaudy numbers. So despite our overall outlook that Florida State is clearly not the national favorite, most of the Seminoles' lines looked reasonable to us -- with one striking exception. The prospect of taking 24 points with Notre Dame in October is the most appealing of the Nugget's 200 offerings.

<H3>Independent</H3>
Notre Dame is also our pick as the most undervalued squad overall. The Irish lay an average of less than 5.5 points to Syracuse, North Carolina, Louisville, Northwestern and Navy. And there's not a true road game in the group. Entering his fifth season in South Bend, Brian Kelly's program is ripe and features serious talent and legitimate competition within every position group. This is a top 10-caliber team, and when it travels to Tallahassee we'll jump at the chance to gobble up one of the largest numbers Notre Dame has ever been offered.

</H3>[/h]
 

Where Taconite Is Just A Low Grade Ore
Joined
Aug 20, 2000
Messages
8,490
Tokens
Hache, TOL for the info. Any line for MN @ TCU??
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,818
Messages
13,439,126
Members
99,339
Latest member
billcunninghamhomeloans
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com