Nuckers world cup...

nuckers · Jun 17, 2014

Haven't played much but an early lean on the over in Ivory Coast/Japan game which won. Played a little fun money on ghana in live play today at +530 to win outright when they were down 1 and it got interesting but lost so still up for the tourny so far just been wading in slow. Now that I've seen some of the games and got a feel for some of the teams jumping in for some bigger players. No claims to be good at betting soccer but here it goes.

June 17th record 0-0-0

Belgium -1 @ -207 to win 1 unit

Not seeing a lot of faves running away with easy victories but this should be a win for the far more talented squad who thinks they've got a shot at winning this tourny.

Mexico + 1.5 @ -111 to win 1 unit

This is gonna be an annoying opponent for Brazil. They can play in the heat, they can attack and they'll be dangerous on counters. Brazil always wants to put on the show at home, any mistakes and this side can take advantage plus Brazil always inspires the best out of teams, who doesn't want to show up Brazil anytime but especially at home. I think Mexico is gonna drive them nuts hence my next play...

Mexico/Brazil draw + 465 x .5 unit

smaller play but hoping I read this right and this stays tight all the way.

Russia/Korea u1 1st half @ -124 to win 1 unit
Russia/Korea u2.5 @ -131 to win 2 units

Capello has a habit of making soccer even more boring, without arguably his best player and one of their most creative this Russian squad will be less inclined to push forward out of control. I see this as a slow methodical game with both teams thinking they can take this... Im expecting both to play to not make any mistakes and sit on potential leads. Koreas coming in in shit form and giving up a lot of goals so a premium will be put on shoring up their d while Russia is solid in their own end. Not a lot of offense on either side either. Played to a 2-1 finish last time they met but that was a friendly in Dubai which is no pressure and Shirokov was in that game, where he wont be today, if they can barely manage 3 in that one I expect to see less here. Bucking the overs trend and taking these 2 to stink up the joint today.

Feel free to rip them apart.

READYTOROLL · Jun 17, 2014

I also like the Under in Russia/Korea. Good luck my friend.:toast::chest:

nuckers · Jun 17, 2014

got lucky, Belgium came back to get the win but not a pretty game and no win just a push but i'll take it the way it looked for over half the game. Have a feeling the Belgians will get better at the tourny goes on and Algeria was quite a surprise, they are a tougher squad than what was believed going in. Russia and S.Korea may be hard pressed to get past these guys.

nuckers · Jun 17, 2014

READYTOROLL said:
I also like the Under in Russia/Korea. Good luck my friend.:toast::chest:

we got lucky, it got close in the end, coming up on half I thought this is gonna be cake but in the end it cashes. :103631605

Donkwin47 · Jun 17, 2014

Nice sweep!

nuckers · Jun 17, 2014

so updated betting history is:

Belgium push

mex +1.5 win = + 1 unit
mex/brazil draw win = + 2.32 units
Russia/Korea u1 1st half win = + 1 unit
Russia/Korea u2.5 win = + 2 units

beginners luck

4-1-0 + 6.32 units

LexingtonBrass · Jun 17, 2014

Nice work Nuck!!!

nuckers · Jun 17, 2014

Donkwin47 said:
Nice sweep!

:toast: thanks!

nuckers · Jun 17, 2014

LexingtonBrass said:
Nice work Nuck!!!

thanks!

nuckers · Jun 17, 2014

June 18th, not much I like for tmw.

Don't know if Netherlands is overly motivated after a great showing vs Spain so taking them on the handicap feels dicey tho they are easily good enough to cover if they bother to try. Total should sail over if Netherlands wants it to but again, motivation, gotta sit it out.

Lots of people jumping on Spain just makes me stay away, easy to say they've been class and should be looking to make amends here for last game but Casillas looks like shit, the defense looked porous and tired, and they were generating nothing up front, dont think either of the strikers they played last game are the answer at this point, not sure if del Bosque is ready to put the old guard to rest and start some younger talent. Chiles no cakewalk, I could see them drawing this or Spain winning by 1 either way too pricey for me to make a play on Spain ml and don't trust them to do it on the handicap.... leaning hard on Chile +1.5 at the moment, no play on it as of yet. Might still pull the trigger on this one.

My play locked in so far is Croatia x Argentina both ml parlay @ -128 to win 1 unit (draws lose)

Croatia despite the goal line vs Brazil is a very tough defensive squad, they don't give up much of anything and Cameroon hasn't shown itself to have a lot of finish thru it's recent history and not having Eto'o isn't going to help them with that. If their game against Mexico was any indication the african side will give up its fair share of chances and with their star striker back Croatia should be good to generate some offense. I hope Modric is a go, his being iffy made it a smaller play but they are still a class above Cameroon and if they have dreams of getting to the next round they'll need this win. Argentina is just a throw in to get the price down, hopefully they dont cost me here but Iran should be a cakewalk for the argies.

scottcarter · Jun 18, 2014

good job nuckers.

can go to Commercial and East 1st and send me down a few smoked sausages from that European smoke shop?

nuckers · Jun 18, 2014

scottcarter said:
good job nuckers.

can go to Commercial and East 1st and send me down a few smoked sausages from that European smoke shop?

if I keep winning it's on me

nuckers · Jun 18, 2014

sitting out Chile/Spain....this one has me in overthinking paralysis. I've broken it down in how I think they'll play, I've thought the publics betting Spain so take the hungry Chilean upstarts who are priming to be the next Spanishesque squad but now im seeing a lot of cappers all over Chile and we might just be all wanting to be too smart and missing the obvious play. In truth, either side winning wouldn't surprise me and either side losing wouldn't surprise me, and a draw wouldn't surprise me so I don't have much of a read on this game and it would just be a guess. The other games I felt like I had some sort of gauge on how the game would play out so that's a sign for me to just be a fan here. GL to all who've got action. Lets go Croatia late game!!! Line moved against me huge, you can get almost in a single what I had to play the parlay to get.

nuckers · Jun 18, 2014

1 play on the spain game.

Diego Costa not to score @ -171 to win 1 unit

chalkier than I like but I hate the way he fits in with the squad, I don't think there's any chemistry and I feel like if he struggles early, Torres will be on the pitch pretty damn quickly, they're not gonna mess around with this experiment forever so taking a shot.

nuckers · Jun 18, 2014

Should've trusted my gut and played Chile, nice to see most of the forum cashing in tho!! and I got my little payday from the game too so I can't complain. Del Bosque, not sure what his thinking was this tourny, can't generate shit, no Fabregas, playing Diego Costa who has showed 0 chemistry, leaving Casillas in when he looks well past his expiry date at this stage. He was god awful in CL final now this showing. Anyways

Diego Costa not to score win = + 1 unit

5-1-0 + 7.32 units

Croatia ml x Argentina ml @ -128 pending

nuckers · Jun 19, 2014

June 19th, chalk day....

I hate chalk but its one of those days where I like a couple games but theyre on the border of being plays I love if I had a better line so smaller plays with the chalk it is.

Japan pk @ -167 to win 1.5 units
Greece u1 goal team total @ -129 to win 1 unit ( 1 goal is a push )
Japan -2 @ +1094 x .25 unit

Greece just royally sucks, they controlled the ball vs Colombia but never really looked a threat to score. The samurai are technically sound in their own and wont be easy to break down for this weak greek offense. This isnt the physical Ivory Coast running rough shod on the smaller Japanese squad or an ultra talented squad that can break down any flaws the samurai possess, this is right in the Japanese wheel house. On offense, the Japanese are deceptive, they've got talent and can generate chances and should be able to find the net, they may not be Colombian talented but I think we'll see some class goals from the Japanese in this one. I was tempted by the game total under but the Japanese could well put 3-4 past the greeks but itd be a damn near miracle to see the greeks go on an offensive tear and get a couple so took the team total under instead. Very small bet on the -2 in case the Japanese really run away with it

seeing a lot of people on Colombia so hoping the line moves so I can get a +1 on the Ivory Coast. Colombia is the sexy pick but this match will be a battle, Ivory coast are battle tested world cup vets who have their eyes set on advancing, this ones got down to the wire type game written all over it and dont be surprised to see the elephants put some goals up and shock the talented upstart Colombians. Ill be watching the number and if I can get it, I cant at the moment on pinny ill lock it in and post it. Should be chalky again so itll be a 1 unit play but this one could be mexico/brazil esque.

No play on the other game.

nuckers · Jun 19, 2014

correction pinny does have the line out for +1 IC but its -264 so waiting till closer to game time to see if it moves my way, right now no play on that game.

Donkwin47 · Jun 19, 2014

I like Japan as well.. Very interesting line movement.. The ML hasn't adjusted yet but I just watched the PK line move from -164 to -156 to -147 and now -146 in a matter of maybe 2 minutes. I got in at -147 with confidence. Interested to see where it goes from here. If Japan +0.5 gets down around the -200 range, I might have to jump all over that. Sitting around -250 right now, and even that looks decently tempting.

GL Nuckers. Go Japan!

nuckers · Jun 19, 2014

the line movement is odd indeed, somebody either knows something or Greek shipping heirs are coming in heavy on their home squad lol but based on match up I like the play letting it ride.

Colombia/IC match played out as I imagined at least in the 2nd half. + 1 would have pushed but I slept thru the start so I have no idea if the price would've made it a play for me or not would've had to be sub -200 for me to even consider it, regardless it was not a play. Down to the wire, Colombia showed flashes, defended well enough but IC was game and if they could've gotten some better service they could've capitalized and I look for deeper squads to deliver on that.. Save for one boneheaded play this could've been a draw. I'm getting some impressions of these younger talented squads, my early takes are, Colombia isn't ready, they're game but they're gonna be taken out by a more seasoned squad, next world cup watch out but right now, they're just gonna be a lot of fun to watch. Chile is ready, they're talented, they're structured and they're going to go far. Belgium is still a question mark, loads of talent but seem to be playing to competition, just enough to win, don't know what they got going so it's going to be tough to bet on them but as dogs they can be an interesting proposition so will be largely price based plays for me on them. Just my take on the young upstart squads.

nuckers · Jun 19, 2014

hope this isn't forcing action but decided to make a play on the england game.

Seems like every capper and their dogs is on Uruguay to pull the upset here and ruin another english campaign and I'm no different. Uruguay is a good squad and their ugly loss was a set back but not indicative of a slide in the way that Spains first loss was. I expect a bounce back effort and could see this one being a draw or the uruguayans stealing it outright so little dabble on +.5. GL to all!

Uruguay +.5 @ -101 to win 1 unit