Friday: Thank You A's

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The A's saved me from a really bad Thursday. 2-4, +.55 units

Have finally updated my YTD, and although it might not be perfectly accurate, it's pretty close. You are welcome to check it. In April I posted and was slightly below .500. Since returning on May 20th, it is 60-45, +31 units. This is NOT the YTD since April wasn't included. So from now on, I'll post it that way…From May 20th. I had a poor April and a much better return season, if that helps. Personally, I'm just glad to have time now to do the write-ups.

After Thursday, from May 20th: 62-49, +31.55 units April: Not so good


Miami -1 +110. One unit. Alvarez should be able to handle the Mets, whom have lost their power and only win with great pitching. The Mets are hitting .201 for the past week, and really have a problem sustaining rallies. Furthermore, their BP is due for a regression. Alvarez has been walking almost no one and has not given up a HR in his last 6 starts. Great sinkerballer.

Arizona ML -110. One unit. Lincecum has, in the past few years, his bad years, pitched terribly on the road, and even worse at Chase Field. Since the Giants have cooled down, and Collmeter has been fairly successful against them, and decent at home, I'll try Arizona one more time.
 

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Pittsburgh TT over 4 (-120) 2 units. I think the Pirates ran into an even hotter team, the Reds. Still they managed to squeak out a win yesterday. But the Pirates have played good ball for about a month now. Even though the Cubs are also laying better, and might hit Charlie Morton today, I have to play against Edwin Jackson. He is pitcher whom always seems to be better than he is. Mid 90s fastball, slider- but he's also been traded or moved around about a zillion times. No one wants this guy and we all know how hard it is to find good pitching. So of course the "Cubs" sign him to a fairly healthy contract. Regrets are all they have now. Jackson is getting hammered this year, no so called nice stats to make him look good. He has an occasional good outing, just enough to give the Cub fans hope. But this will be the 4th time the Pirates have seen him this year. And his last 5 starts read: 25 IPs, 33 hits and 25 runs, with a high % of HRs and walks thrown in. I would play this at 3 units except the Cubs bullpen has been surprisingly good- although I'm not sure it can last.
 

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Minnesota/ CWS over 9 (+100) 2 units. I don't like to play a total this high, especially with the way the Twins have been hitting. The White Sox have also cooled down. But I figure this total would only be a 1/2 run more, maybe one, if either team was hitting better. Tonight we'll see 2 of the worst starters in the majors. Nolasco's signing by the Twins is already being regretted. He is about dead last among qualified starters in many pitching stats in the AL. Nolasco made a salary push last year pitching in the NL, but now he is back to his old inconsistent self- actually he's worse. Nolasco is supposed to be a ground ball specialist, but has 30 more FBs than GBs this year. But his worse stat is that righties and lefties are BOTH hitting over .300.

Then there's Hector Noesi. The TT on the Twins is 4.5 tonight, which is shocking considering how few runs they've been scoring. But Noesi is also reverting back to being the guy with good stuff, who hangs sliders and sends fastballs down the middle of the plate, usually at the worse time- 9 HRs and 38 runs in just 57 IPs. I'm figuring that this 4.5 TT must be the sharps anticipating Noesi imploding tonight. The Chicago BP is also one of the worse. Lindstrom is on the DL, there's no reliable closer, their set up guys are average, their middle guys are worse. The Twins have a good closer and Fien is a decent set up guy, but the rest of the BP is marginal. Both of these starters USE a lot of bullpen. One of these starters could have a pretty good game, but the other could completely get killed. More likely is that both of them pitch poorly. These 2 AL Central teams, and Cleveland can be included, have some god awful pitching.
 

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Colorado TT over 5 (-120) 2 units. Estrada might set a record this year of most HRs or most flyballs in a season. That's IF the Brewers leave him in the rotation. I don't think they will. Considering his walk/ hit totals, he's been VERY lucky he hasn't been completely horrible. That's why I like this total- Estrada has given up a lot of solo HRs, but that kind of luck will even out. 11 HRs in just his last 29 innings. Unbelievable stat: In Estrada's last start he gave up 19 FBs to 1 GB. Talk about flyable tendencies! Estrada hasn't pitched in Coors in years and now faces a pissed off Rockies team after being no hit by Kershaw. When you consider the middle relief of the Brewers, which is okay, and thew low humidity and warm weather, 5 is a decent #- the average is about 4 for TTs, and that's under normal circumstances- this is only one more stinking run.
 

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the non blocking the plate call gonna mess up Pirates TT should be pushing now MLB has no clue what its doing on that rule its a complete fucking joke BOL rest of way
 

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