| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.02 |
| Last 30 Days | 50 | 42 | 0.00 | +27.21 |
| Season to Date | 110 | 116 | 0.00 | +19.99 |
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All plays are for 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
Seattle +121 over KANSAS CITY
After a major winning streak finally comes to an end you often see consecutive losses and we’ll put that to the test here. The angle is that there is a major letdown after such a hot run, as the players’ extreme focus decreases significantly and it may take a game or two to get it back. After a 6-1 road trip through Chicago and Detroit, two Central Division rivals, the Royals are certainly in danger of suffering a letdown in this opener. The enticing, cheap price on the hottest team in baseball with their most recognizable starter going suggests the oddsmakers are expecting letdown also. The Royals have won James Shields’ last eight straight starts and it’s not because Shields has been dazzling, it’s because he’s getting major run support. The Royals have scored five runs or more in seven of those eight starts and Shields has improved from a 3-3 record to an 8-3 record over that stretch. The record is misleading and so is Shields’ 3.50 ERA. Shields’ has struggled for most of the year and especially so over the past month with a 5.34 ERA in his past five starts. Overall he has an oppBA of .271 and he’s been tagged for 12 jacks already in 98 innings. Over his last six starts, Shields’ has posted an ugly 1.68 WHIP and he has a 22% hr/f with runners on base, the highest mark of any pitcher in the AL. Shields’ swing and miss rate is showing a significant decrease also, as it has gone from 11% in April, to 10% in May and is down to 8% this month. We’re seeing the signs of a fatigued pitcher, much like we saw in the second half of last season when Shields suffered some real skills erosion, notably to his groundball and strikeout rates. This year, add HR’s allowed to that skills erosion. Incidentally, the Mariners have the 5th best road BA in the AL.
Hisashi Iwakuma’s groundball arm built on last year's second half gains to finish in AL's Top Three in ERA/WHIP. His first half featured airtight control and superb command that he couldn't quite sustain. Even so, take that second half and throw in equal success vL/vR and home/road and you get one of the most reliable pitchers in the game. Iwakuma has seven pure quality outings in nine starts. He has a 2.49 ERA on the road and in his one start against the Royals last season he allowed no earned runs in 8 IP. Iwakuma also has an elite groundball rate of 56% and a rock-solid BB/K split of 6/47 in 66 innings. At 33, it’s tough to dub him an ace but we’re not paying an ace price in this one either. The Mariners are in a better situational spot than the Royals, they have a better starter going and they’re getting a tag. That works.
N.Y. Mets/MIAMI over 7½ +100
Take Daisuke Matsuzaka’s 3-0 record and 2.81 ERA and combine it with Henderson Alvarez’s overall 2.56 ERA and 1.62 ERA at home and you get a total that is very beatable. Matsuzaka’s impressive 2.81 ERA was compiled primarily in relief but a 4.38 xERA and awful skills show that he's been nothing but pure luck. He's also been much less impressive on the road, with a 5.06 ERA. Matsuzaka has faced the Marlins twice this season and has issued 4 walks and allowed 2 ER in only 1.3 IP. In 42 innings overall, Matsuzaka has walked 30 batters. Over his last 23 frames, he’s walked 14. He's walking batters at an unacceptable rate (6.1/9). Also his numbers have been helped by a low hit rate (22%) and a relatively high strand rate (79%). In summarizing, Matsuzaka’s velocity is now sub-90 mph 2+ years after TJS. His control is still woefully sub-par, he has a scary fly-ball% history. This guy is performing a high wire act and the wind is beginning to pick up. “Dice-K” may not last three innings and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Marlins have a .270 BA and .759 OPS at home, both second best in the NL.
Last weekend we played the Marlins/Pirates to go over 7½ when Henderson Alvarez went up against Vance Worley. The final score was 3-2 but the two teams combined for 18 hits and stranded a combined 19 base-runners. Once again, everything bounced Alvarez’s way. Alvarez comes into this start with a 2.56 ERA after 14 games started but we’re insisting it cannot last. He has just 56 K’s in 88 innings and his 1.28 WHIP is worse than the league average. Only half of his 14 starts have been of the pure quality variety but a remarkable and extremely lucky 91% strand rate since the beginning of May has kept his ERA in check. Alvarez’s surface stats may be the most misleading in the game. His skills say a serious ERA correction is forthcoming and we’ll attempt to cash in on that ERA correction once again. In the unlikely event that Alvarez throws another lucky gem, the Marlins may go over this number on their own.
