Saturday: Good Timing

2-1 Friday, 2 pushes, +.7 units Post May 20th: 64-50, + 32.25 units


This one just got slammed an hour after playing it, so apparently someone, or someones, with lots of money hit it hard. I like this one on the RL too so you could chance it there.

KC -1 (-105) 4 units. The Royals have lost 2 in a row after winning 10 in a row, but don't fear. They aren't reverting to their old underachieving selves. Friday they slammed out 14 hits and chased Iwakuma, a very tough pitcher with a deadly splitter and a deceptive delivery. Unfortunately, James Shields has not had much success against the Mariners(of all people?). It continued tonight. Then Holland, their closer, had a very uncharacteristic bad inning in the 9th. Their other loss to Anibel Sanchez, a very good pitcher, was a one run loss where they didn't whiff once.

The Royals are for real. They finally have strong starting pitching, an excellent bullpen, run the bases well, field well, and strikeout at the lowest rate in the AL. They are even walking more, which had been a weakness. This game Saturday means a lot to them. They know that the baseball world is watching to see if they are for real. Winning 10 in a row like they did was impressive, and I think they'll get to Chris Young. Young is so overdue for regression. He throws a lot of fastballs in the mid 80s, and being 6'10" gives him a late release point, and his fastballs seem faster. BUT, he's a fly ball pitcher that actually pitches high in the zone. I've seen him pitch a few times this year and I always marvel at how he gets hitters to hit long lazy fly balls to the outfield. His secondary stuff is not that good, and the way the Royals are hitting, I can't see him doing well. Vargas has been really hard on his former team, winning his last 4 starts, each time pitching very well. He is very tough on lefties which Seattle has a lot of. Vargas has had 3 poor outings this year, but many more good ones. Only 1 HR in his last 5 starts, covering 35 IPs with 9 runs. His 3 poor outings were all against hot hitting or good hitting teams(CWS, DET, TOR).

The disparity in these lineups is huge. Without Cano, Seattle would be as bad as the Padres. Vargas will pitch around him as much as he can.

Atlanta ML +123. One unit. It seems like Atlanta could be emerging from their funk as Washington is going into one(or maybe Atlanta just had to go on the road- some teams do better getting away from all the distractions at home). The Nats are hitting .204 for the past week with one HR. They have long term issues with their offense and right now it looks like they are struggling. Teheran had a bad outing in Coors, but who doesn't? Otherwise he has been the Braves most consistent starter, showing great command and control, with little penchant for the long ball. The Braves BP has been a little off, but all good BPs go through a bad week or so. Fister has lost the ability to strike out hitters and is now counting on weak contact. He's been pretty successful for the most part, although right now I think the Braves are more likely to hit than the Nats.

Fred..........like the KC play, will use the RL........BOL with your action...........indy

KC RL +130. One unit.

Tampa -1 (-115) One unit. Fade this one if you'd like. A play against the Houston starter, Jake Buchanan, who was sort of fading at the AAA level(5.40 ERA in last 4 starts) before this call up. No + pitches and a low 90s/ high 80s fastball. Houston has been struggling at the plate and is a little too young and willing to swing at poor pitches at times. Lead the AL in Ks. Odorizzi has settled in and is coming off of two strong starts. Has good control of his off speed pitches and has pitched much better at home this year. The Rays are bad, but NOT this bad.

Toronto TT over 4 (-105) Two units. The Jays face Mike Leake today, who has become a 5 inning pitcher. Leake nibbles and toils inning by inning until his pitch count gets up there. In his last 4 starts he has given up at least 4 runs, and all by the middle innings. The Reds middle relief is not all that good, and last night their best guys, Broxton and Chapman, got beat up. The Jays have cooled down, but are still hitting above league average for the past week. Toronto also hits RHP better than LHP.They have continued to show more discipline at the plate this year and last night, being down 8, came back- scoring 14 and winning late. Toronto will also get 9 frames being the away team. I'm not sure why this # is only 4 but maybe being a NL game, and not in Coors, going over 4 is not usually a good idea.

Final Play(?):

LA Dodgers -110 First 5. One unit. The Dodgers are finally hitting and have a number of players heating up…Kemp, Justin Turner, Ellis, H. Ramirez, and Puig is always a threat. The lineup disparity here is glaring. The Padres have 39 runs in June with a .168 average. I'm playing the first 5 because the Dodgers bullpen is so inconsistent and the Padres have been scoring late at times. The pitching matchup is fairly even, although I like the Dodgers a little more because they have hit RHP so well this year and have been so poor vs. LHP. Tyson Ross, however, is capable of pitching a gem- although in his last 5 starts he's been more at league average.

GL today!

Nicely done OFred. Much respect for your selections. They make sense, they're well researched and well worth the read. Best of luck

The Royals can't hit today, hope they pick it up in the last 2 innings