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Thread: Monday: Milwaukee is Consistent

  1. #1 Monday: Milwaukee is Consistent 
    RX Junior
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    Sunday 4-2, + 4.9 units Post May 20th: 70-56, + 30.9 units


    Although I'm noticing that some teams seem to thrive on the road..Seattle, KC, Milwaukee, Oakland, and others (and there are good reasons for this- lack of distractions from being near family, fans, the media… maybe teams bond better on the road), I'm going with the Brewers coming home after a very successful road trip. In fact, Milwaukee has held up well this year with very few long slumps/ losing streaks, and I think this team might finally be turning the corner. They have 35 extra base hits in just the past week. That's pretty impressive.

    Milwaukee ML -121. 2 units. I also think the Nats are a very good home team, with great pitching and a weak offensive attack. They have been able to win because their BP and starters have been so good. But they have hit just .225 in the past week, and for the year are at .235 vs. RHP. Zimmerman has lost his power, Span the leadoff guy doesn't walk much, and they don't have anything to spark the team at the bottom third of the lineup. Garza has pitched well at home, and really seems to love playing baseball for the Brewers this year. He hasn't had a bad start since April and keeps the ball in the ballpark at Miller Field. His ground ball pct. has been climbing.

    Gio Gonzalez has not been dominant since 2012. He is coming off of shoulder inflammation, his control and command is not quite there, and right now is the weak link in the Nats starting pitching. He has also pitched well at home over the years, and less so on the road. Mostly though, I like how the Brewers have been able to sustain 2-5 run rallies consistently. When they have a good inning it is not usually scratching a run over with a Sac. Fly or infield single. Their BP has also been much improved after years of being a train wreck. The optimism is helping them win, and making Rickie Weeks a part time player helps too.
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  2. #2  
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    LA Dodgers -1 (-103) One unit. I'm thinking the Royals couldn't hit the Mariners lesser pitchers, what chance do they have against Greineke? I think I also overestimated the Royals hot streak. They beat up on Detroit, who was reeling, Cleveland and the White Sox, whom have terrible pitching, and seem to be a team that can't win at home when things are going well. This has happened before, going back the last few years. The Dodgers last year began their surge, about this time, when playing on the road. They looked kind of bad vs. Stults Sunday, but they have the bats to get to the overachiever Guthrie. Guthrie always seems to toil inning by inning, and is smart enough to get out of jams. He pitches to contact, but eventually that catches up to him. The Royals seem streaky and right now they are streaking bad again.
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  3. #3  
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    Cinn. ML +106. One unit. The Reds are just winning and hitting and playing well defensively. The Cubs have their ace on the mound, and they're playing better, but I'm going to ride the Reds at this point. Ever since Votto returned they have been a different team. The Cubs, they'll start losing at some point. The Cubs just have too many holes to win consistently. Also, as stated earlier in this thread, road teams can thrive.
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  4. #4  
    RX Junior Steiner69eR's Avatar
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    Stay hot, O'Fred. BOL
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  5. #5  
    RX Junior Wine O's Avatar
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    I had a good week tailing most of your plays. My local doesn't offer -1 run lines which sucks so I have only played some of the ML games. Nothing over -180. I did pull a couple of them at -1 1/2 with mixed results. Thanks for sharing and I wish you the best of luck and continued success. I was a big fan of your football plays as well. Looking forward to the fall. Thanks again Big O

    Wine ​O
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  6. #6  
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    Wine O, you can make your own -1 line by taking the money line and run line... Say a team is favored -160 ML and +140 runline. Bet 160-100 Moneyline then 100-140... You now have a -1 line of 260 to win 240...

    thanks ks for the plays o Fred and I enjoy your write ups. Good luck
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  7. #7  
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    Blue Riot- Was just going to suggest the same thing. Make sure you play 1/2 of your bet on the ML and 1/2 on the RL.


    SF Giants -1 (-106) 2 units. Hopefully I have done my homework on the Padres starter Despaigne. Talk about coming out of nowhere. The Padres have lost Erlin, and now Cashner possibly(who's scratched for tonight). That's why Eric Stults continues to start despite being terrible. They have no one else at AAA and Despaigne is a 28 year old rookie from Cuba. Very little time in the minors. He had a 7.61 ERA in 23 innings at AAA and so this start I'm sure was out of desperation. He's an older guy with much experience in the Cuban League who has a deceptive delivery and average stuff. But.. if those AAA players figured him out- 36 hits in those 23 IPs- then I'm figuring the Giants have a chance. Maybe he'll get through the lineup once with some success, but not a 2nd time. Tim Stauffer is the designated long man for SD and he's been awful his past few weeks.

    I also think Matt Cain is not that far from getting his mojo back. He almost always follows a bad outing with a good one going back many years. From scouting reports there's nothing wrong with him except he is missing his spots occasionally. His 3 awful starts this year make his stats look worse than they are. And, he's facing the Padres, who ALWAYS score between 0-3. The Padres GM got fired yesterday and when you look at their depressing lineup you can see why. Their leading RBI guy is Jed Gyoro, with 24- but he's hitting .162 and is now on the DL.

    My only concern is how rookie pitchers seem to shine in their first start no matter how bad they are.
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  8. #8  
    RX Junior
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wine O View Post
    I had a good week tailing most of your plays. My local doesn't offer -1 run lines which sucks so I have only played some of the ML games. Nothing over -180. I did pull a couple of them at -1 1/2 with mixed results. Thanks for sharing and I wish you the best of luck and continued success. I was a big fan of your football plays as well. Looking forward to the fall. Thanks again Big O

    Wine ​O
    Thanks Wine O. I am starting to look forward to football season. I always get burned out during the baseball season with its daily schedule and just want to be a fan again.
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  9. #9  
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    SF -1/2 (-120) First 5. One unit.
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