2 Monday w/analysis

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COLORADO +102 over St. Louis
Jholuly’s Chacin is 1-5 with a 4.63 ERA and that has he and the Rockies falsely billed as the underdog in this game. Chacin’s numbers are not going to appeal to many but he’s an interesting study and he’s high on our list of “buy-low” candidates. Last year, Chacin came back strong after missing most of 2012 to a pectoral injury. His control was the best of his career by a wide margin and just two of first 28 starts were disasters before he faded in September. That’s pretty remarkable when one considers where he pitches half his games. Chacin also regained his groundball tilt last year and has maintained it this year. We’re just now beginning to see the “old” Chacin come back to life. He has 23 K’s in his last 29 innings and it is supported by his 10% swing and miss rate over that span. Chacin’s groundball rate over his last five starts is 53%, up from his season rate of 45% and his line-drive/fly-ball rate over that same stretch is outstanding at 18%/29%. Chacin’s GB rate in his last start was 63%. Chacin is pitching much better than his surface stats suggest and he’s facing a Cardinals offense that scares nobody.

Lance Lynn is not having a bad season but he has had some bumps in the road along the way. Two of his last four starts have been disasters. Over his last five starts, he has a 23/15 K/BB in 31.1 IP. The reason why he is such a bad option today as the chalk is the schedule has him pitching at Coors Field. Throughout his career, Lynn has been much better at home (3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) than on the road (4.34 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). The Rockies put up 6.4 runs per game at home where they own a .329 BA and .911 OPS. Lynn’s overall 3.15 ERA does not come with skills support. Other than a decent strikeout total of 82 in 91 innings, none of his other skills support the ERA. He’s walking more batters than ever, his WHIP of 1.31 is worse than the league average, his groundball/fly-ball split of 45%/35% is about league average and his xERA over his last seven starts is 4.44. Lynn has been greatly aided by an extremely lucky 89% strand rate over his last five starts. Lynn’s numbers look pretty on paper (1.89 ERA over his last three) but don’t buy it, as he is not even an average pitcher on the road and this venue is very unforgiving to any pitcher with a high WHIP. Wrong side favored.

Washington +110 over MILWAUKEE
After a grueling 7-game road trip through Arizona and Colorado, the Brewers return home for this opener. A seven-game trip is nothing unique but most of Milwaukee’s games on said trip went well over three hours and it’s also worth noting that the Crew went from the 100+ degrees weather in Arizona to the high altitude in Denver. Milwaukee’s starters lasted a combined 14.1 innings in the three games in Colorado, where the two teams combined for 47 runs in the three-game set. We’re suggesting this isn’t a good spot for the Brewers, who may be running on fumes after that trip and who will be playing their 14th straight game here without a day off. Matt Garza is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over his last four starts but don't confuse his good results with good skills. In those four starts, he has a 4.30 xERA, a low 4.7 K’s/9 and eight walks in 26 frames. In 15 starts for a team with one of the best records in the majors, Garza has just four wins. He’s definitely serviceable but he’s also not to be trusted in this spot against a very good Nationals team.

In his first start back after missing a month, Gio Gonzalez wasn’t sharp against the Astros, allowing four earned runs in five innings. We’ll give him a pass, as many pitchers need a game to get back into the groove. No question that he’s ready otherwise the Nationals would’ve delayed his return. Thing is, Gonzalez struck out six in five innings and now has 59 K’s in 56 innings. Gonzalez has been consistent for four years running. He went more than 7 IP only three times in 2012. In 2013, he reached that mark only twice. His skills describe a borderline star, lacking the control and endurance to take the next step. He has been the same solid pitcher for three straight years and over that time he has a 48-28 record. When Gonzalez pitches, the Nationals win and in this favorable spot and taking back a small tag, we’ll gladly get on board.

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FIRST MLB START
Odrisamer Despaigne (RHP – SD)
Despaigne signed with the Padres as a non-roster invitee in March 2014, right around the time of spring training. He does not have much experience at any level in North America with just 31 total innings between Texas of the A-League and El Paso of the Triple-A Pacific League. Despaigne’s stuff is average across the board. He's got feel, he's got deception and he knows how to pitch. The biggest thing going for him is his ability to mix and match and change slots and change arm angles. He throws four different pitches from different slots and from different angles. He never gives guys the same look and he throws a lot of strikes. The problem with him is that he doesn’t have plus stuff with any of his pitches and as soon as players recognize what he’s going to throw, and they will at this level, he’s in big trouble. At Triple AAA, Despaigne posted an ugly 7.61 ERA, where right-handers hit a meaty .485 against him. He did strike out 29 batters in 20 innings and it is a small sample size but there is nothing in his early profile that warrants the call-up. Perhaps the Padres are gearing up for the future and with the hiring of a new GM they are evaluating what they have, as this season is lost anyway. Despaigne is the first to get a look of the many prospects the Padres have and in this premature call-up and we would not recommend backing him. Avoid.