STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JUNE 24th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 6/24/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #13
It's once again time to take an inside look at the pitches and swings from the Major League Baseball weekend series from Week #12, StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst William Stillman takes us behind the scene, isolating those key edges that can put you far ahead of the marketplace, and build your bankroll in the days ahead.
•Athletics – Sean Doolittle, Does A Lot
Did you see Sean Doolittle coming? No reason to feel bad if you didn’t; even the Athletics themselves did not anticipate it. Which makes it a prime time to talk about just how shockingly good he has been.
One of the earliest columns of this season dealt with Oakland’s hopes that Jim Johnson would be the answer at closer, but there were doubts from this end because of how he had been overworked by Baltimore. It was a move the A’s made because they were not sure how good Doolittle was, or how ready, and it was among the rare personnel mistakes from this franchise in recent years. Johnson’s season has gone from bad to worse, with a 5.58 ERA, including nearly as many BB (17) as K’s (19), and he is becoming insignificant, having been given one save opportunity in over two months.
Enter Doolittle. First, one can excuse the talent evaluators for missing the boat, because it was not until after two knee surgeries in 2010 that relief pitching became his aim, first in the Arizona Fall League in 2011. He blazed his way through the Minors in 2012, literally, with ridiculous K/command rates (48 over 25 IP, vs. only seven BB). Then over 2012-13 he worked 116 1/3 IP in The Show, mostly low leverage, but when called on to close he was not successful, converting only three of nine save chances. So despite 120 K’s vs. 24 BB through that span, his failure in pressure settings made the acquisition of a proven closer an off-season priority. Johnson simply was not the right one, but indirectly that may have turned out quite well for the Oakland future. It led to Doolittle getting another opportunity for the role, and he has been absurdly good.
The overall numbers tell the tale – a 2.00 ERA, converting 10 of 11 save opportunities, and the historic 50 K’s vs. only 1 BB over 36 IP (no previous pitcher in the 20th or 21st Centuries had made it to 50 K’s with a lone BB). But if we isolate to his current stretch, it reaches a rare Baseball realm. Doolittle had a dismal outing at Houston on April 26, giving up hits to all four batters that he faced, and each of them came around to score in an Oakland loss. Instead of it shattering his confidence, it ignited a flame.
Flame is the proper word, because it is the high hard stuff that hitters have not been able to catch up to. Since that bad outing vs. the Astros he has dealt a 0.00 over 22 appearances (24 1/3 IP), with astounding rates of 37 K’s vs. only six hits and 1 BB (Tampa’s Ryan Hanigan, back on May 20). And since May 10 he has retired 57 of 61 batters, 29 via K’s. But while K’s often bring inflated pitch counts that can wear someone down, in the two series vs. Texas and Boston last week he needed just 40 pitches through four frames, despite striking out half of the batters he faced. And while fans might have been disappointed that he did not get a strikeout on Saturday, he dispatched three Red Sox batters on only seven pitches.
Projecting him going forward is not easy – no one has ever maintained these dominance levels over an extended period. But he is the rarity of a left-handed closer throwing high heat, and that will mean continued matchup advantages; it will take quite some time before individual hitters get enough looks at him to be able to settle in. He is also a work in progress, with only 178 1/3 professional innings under his belt, so there is the frightening aspect that this may not even be his best stuff yet. His development could be that final piece to an awfully strong Oakland puzzle.
•Angels – The Closer Search, In Late June
While the A’s have found their answer for the closer role, Mike Scioscia is still in need of Rolaids. Perhaps literally, given the way the late innings have been faring for his bullpen. While Oakland will be difficult to chase down, the Angels lead the AL Wild Card race, which is fitting for a team that is #3 in RPG, based on #5 in both SLG and OPS. They are going to hit. And a starting rotation that sits at 3.53, #8 in the majors, can buy that offense enough innings to click most nights. It has been from the mound-work in the latter stages where things have gone wrong.
The Angel bullpen sports a 4.49 ERA that rates #26. Despite having 41 wins there have only been 16 saves, with only five teams worse (and those five are a collective 50 games under .500). Only the Pirates have more blown saves, and there have been nine losses after leading in the 7th inning or later, more than any other team.
The problem is that it is not just one or two performers having bad campaigns that could turn around, but the fact that the direction for the season was never really in place. They actually came in with as much “hope” as expectation that the pieces were there. Ernestso Frieri can challenge hitters with his heat (a career 12.1 K-per-9), but his league-low ground-ball rate is a danger zone for a closer. He has been roughed up to an 0-3/5.83 with three blown saves, allowing eight HR over just 29 1/3 IP, and that latter count extends to 19 over just 98 IP the L2 seasons. When he gets his next opportunity will be a question – he did not work in the Texas series, after a dismal road trip in which he was rocked for six runs over 1.1 IP, allowing hits to eight of the 13 batters he faced, culminating with the Nick Swisher grand slam in Cleveland on Thursday.
But where can Scioscia turn? Joe Smith can be an effective set-up man with the ground-balls he generates, but has already failed on four of 12 save chances, and is far too vulnerable vs. left-handed hitters. Kevin Jepsen lacks the control (4.3 BB-per-9), and has already blown a pair of saves in six tries. Cam Bedrosian got the chance twice on that recent road trip, and failed both times after being rushed to the Majors, not having thrown a single pitch at the AAA level (Baseball generously credits him with a “hold” for that dismal outing in Cleveland, when three of the four batters he faced came around to score).
There is not a good answer on this roster for a team with the talent to contend in the other departments. Which means that the Angel closer for the stretch run of the pennant chase is likely wearing another uniform right now (Huston Street?). Until such a deal happens you will need to navigate carefully when it looks like they brings a Play-On setting – the focus can be on the First Five Innings to negate those closer issues, or if it is a favorable matchup for the offense vs. an opposing starter, making Over a part of your portfolio.
•Phillies – Cole Hamels, And The Elusiveness Of Wins
Hamels will get one more start before June turns into July, but a case can already be made that he has been the best starter in the Majors this month, a tidy 0.73 over 37 IP, with 40 K’s vs. only 27 hits allowed. But that falls under the radar a bit because he only has one win over those five starts. Baseball does that, through short samples. What has happened to Hamels since the start of the 2013 season is an entirely different matter.
This past Saturday afternoon at St. Louis was one of those typical heart-breakers for a pitcher. Hamels matched St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright pitch-for-pitch, with the game tied 1-1 into the bottom of the 8th. He ended up on the wrong end of a 4-1 defeat, wearing down as he reached 120 pitches, but also again a victim of a lack of support. Of the meager seven total bases the Philadelphia offense managed in the game, he provided three himself (a single and a double). But this is not anything new.
Hamels has worked to a sharp 2.76 over 13 starts this season, but has only two wins, with the Phillies going 4-9. Over the past two seasons he has dealt at a solid 3.37, yet has only been credited with a 10-18 personal W/L, with a dismal 17-29 for the team. To get 10 wins out of 46 starts at that allowance rate is not easy; there were 19 games in that span in which he allowed two ER or less, and was not rewarded.
Let’s establish some perspective. If we track all qualifying pitchers since the start of 2013, the three directly above him on the ERA charts are Jered Weaver, John Lackey and James Shields. They have gone 57-43. The three below him are C. J. Wilson, Patrick Corbin and Derek Holland. They have gone 48-30 (a lower count due to Corbin and Holland being on the DL this season). Hamels is in the middle of a group that has generated a 105-73 W/L mark, which shows how much of an outlier his 10-18 is. And contrast the 146-101 record of the teams involved, vs. the 17-29 for the Phillies.
When rating Hamels, all that should matter is the way that he has pitched, and not the final scores, especially those $$$ +/- charts. Had you wagered on every one of his starts this season you would be -$459, and over the L2 seasons it is -$2025. Those are dramatic numbers, but of no correlation to his performance level, and hence of precious little predictive value. If the markets attach weight to them and create a counterfeit currency, it could mean some “play on” value for his upcoming starts, especially with the slow NL East pace through the first couple of 2014 furlongs keeping the Phillies in the hunt, which should ultimately lead to better play behind him.
•Cardinals – When Power Takes A (Matt) Holliday
This is going to be a challenging road trip for Mike Matheny and the Cardinals, getting on the plane without Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia from the starting rotation, both being placed on the DL. The task is made more difficult by the St. Louis offensive struggles, with one of the keys to being above .500 the fact that there have been four 1-0 wins already. Perhaps no one is more important to watch the next few days than Holliday, in his return to Coors Field.
Issues of the Cardinal offense were dealt with in an important earlier take, noting that their run production level in 2013 was far beyond the usual distribution for their base production, and a downgrade was in order. As the season progresses it has been quite a drop – only the Rays, Braves and Padres have scored fewer RPG. But it is not just Baseball being Baseball, and some of those 2013 bounces evening out; instead there are genuine concerns about the dip in power from Holliday.
To call Holliday a model of consistency through the years is an understatement – since joining the Cardinals his full-season BA has been between .295 and .312 each campaign, the OBA range from .379 to .394, and SLG from .490 to .532. His HR counts were 28, 22, 27 and 22, and his BB% ranged from a low of 10.2 to a high of 11.6. So while he turned 35 this past January, that consistency gave no indication of any imminent decline.
But decline has been the story. Through 74 games and 323 PA’s his swings have only generated a .261/.372/.382 line. It is the latter count that is the most alarming – it is more than 100 points below any previous season, and he has only five HR. It got to the point where Matheny penciled him in at #2 in the batting order on Sunday, the first time in that slot since 2010.
The Cardinals badly need power from Holliday, because it will come from few other slots in the lineup – they are tied with Kansas City for the fewest HR in the Majors with 42, and no other team has less than 53. It is even more important with the pitching staff facing those issues on this road trip. Hence, why the spotlight shines on him, starting Monday night in Denver. Holliday has belted out a .359/.426/.655 over his career in Coors Field, with 91 HR in 373 games. He will be up against a struggling pitching staff, with the Rockies not even knowing their Wednesday starter yet. A power surge in this park vs. those pitchers may not necessarily mean much, but the lack of a power surge could turn out to mean plenty.
•Giants – Matt Cain, No Longer “Lord Of The Flies”
In reviewing the MLB weekday series a few days ago there was a take on Buster Posey’s declining power counts, and how that would be a particular issue for the Giants over the course of the summer, because of the struggles of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain in the starting rotation. Lincecum’s declining stuff was dealt with earlier in the season but while Cain did not work this past weekend, his patterns are becoming established pretty clearly, so it is an appropriate time to re-define him as well. Especially since he is about to get MLB’s easiest matchup, a home game vs. the Padres, which can keep the markets a step behind.
Cain has put together a solid MLB career despite only having good, and not great, stuff, basically surviving by being a fly-ball pitcher on the West Coast, where a guy can make a good living out of that. There have been earlier takes here on Jered Weaver and Chris Young, and how modern metrics such as xFIP get blurred vision through their out distributions. Cain has been the same – in each of his first eight seasons his ERA was lower than his xFIP, three times by more than a full run. He appeared to be getting lucky consistently, with a career BABIP of .263, but fly-balls are turned into outs at a higher rate than ground-balls; the key is to keep them in the park, where the fielders can get a glove at them. After over 1,800 MLB innings, that key for Cain is no longer opening the locks the way it once did.
Cain fell off to 8-10/4.00 in 2013, only his second losing campaign, and his highest ERA since his first full season back in 2006. His K-per-9 was above his career average and his BB-per-9 was below it, both positives, and his BABIP checked in at a favorable .260 again. No sign of decline there, but his HR/FB rate was 10.8 percent, the highest of his career. Now 2014 brings a 1-5/4.52 so far, and some of the peripherals are disturbing. First note that his 6.9 K-per-9 would be a career low (not counting 2005, when he only made seven starts), while his 3.4 BB-per-9 would be the highest since 2008. His Swinging Strike rate is also at a career bottom. But the big alarm is again the HR/FB rate, now up to 15.1. While that might seem like an outlier that could pull back, for a veteran with a good track record, it marks the third straight season in which it has risen appreciably. There is something to be said for that. And to have the highest ERA of his career, despite a favorable .249 BABIP, is a genuine warning – his FIP of 5.02 is more than a run higher than any other full season, and his xFIP is the highest since 2008.
Cain will not completely implode because he is a crafty competitor, and can still get away with fly-balls from his home mound, plus those division road parks in Los Angeles and San Diego. But there is no appreciable reason for him to return to his past form – this simply might be who he is right now.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
National League
•Marlins-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Heaney allowed one run in six IP (91 PT) in losing his MLB debut, 1-0.
--Buchanan is 2-0, 2.84 in his last couple starts.
--Marlins lost four of their last six games.
--Phillies lost their last three games.
--Five of last six Miami games stayed under total.
•Reds-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--Bailey is 4-0, 3.69 in his last six starts.
--Arrieta is 2-0, 0.73 in his last four starts.
--Cincinnati won nine of its last twelve games.
--Cubs lost four of their last five home games.
--Five of last six Arrieta starts stayed under the total.
•Nationals-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Zimmerman is 2-2, 0.84 in his last four starts.
--Gallardo is 2-0, 0.86 in his last three starts.
--Washington won its last three games, but lost four of last five on road.
--Brewers won six of their last eight games.
--Five of last seven Gallardo starts stayed under total.
•Cardinals-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Miller is 1-1, 2.02 in his last three starts.
--De La Rosa is 0-3, 8.68 in his last four starts.
--Cardinals won 11 of their last 15 games.
--Colorado lost its last seven games.
--Over is 9-2-2 in last 13 Colorado games; under is 6-0-1 in Cards' last seven.
•Padres-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Hahn is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.
--Hudson is 1-1, 5.94 in his last three starts.
--San Diego lost eight of its last ten games.
--Giants lost ten of their last thirteen games.
--Nine of last ten San Diego games stayed under.
American League
•Yankees-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Phelps is 2-0, 1.32 in his last two starts.
--Buehrle is 0-3, 3.72 in his last three starts.
--Yankees lost last three games, outscored 22-4.
--Blue Jays lost five of their last seven games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Toronto home games.
•White Sox-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Quintana is 0-3, 6.56 in his last four starts.
--Gonzalez is 3-1, 3.80 in his last four starts.
--White Sox lost their last eight road games.
--Baltimore is 9-5 in its last fourteen home games.
--Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Quintana starts.
•Tigers-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Smyly is 1-2, 2.37 in his last three starts.
--Lewis is 1-1, 8.14 in his last four starts; Texas is 7-1 in his starts if they score more than three runs.
--Detroit won three of its last four games.
--Rangers lost their last five games.
--Five of last six Detroit road games went over total.
•Twins-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Gibson is 2-1, 1.09 in his last five starts (22 consecutive scoreless IP)
--Wilson is 1-1, 2.66 in his last three starts.
--Minnesota won its last four games, but lost five in row on road.
--Angels won 12 of their last 14 home games.
--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Angel home games.
•Red Sox-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Peavy is 0-4, 5.32 in his last seven starts.
--Ramirez is 0-0, 0.00 in his last three starts (15.2 IP).
--Red Sox lost 11 of their last 14 road games.
--Seattle won seven of its last nine games.
--Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Boston games.
Interleague
•Athletics-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Former Met farmhand Kazmir is 4-0, 1.53 in his last five starts.
--Former Athletic Colon is 4-0, 2.04 in his last five starts.
--Oakland won five of its last six games.
--Mets won four of their last five games.
--Five of last six Kazmir starts stayed under the total.
•Pirates-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Locke is 0-1, 2.14 in his last three starts.
--Archer is 1-2, 2.31 in his last six starts.
--Pirates won nine of their last thirteen road games.
--Tampa Bay is 6-10 in its last sixteen home games.
--Six of last seven Archer starts stayed under the total.
•Dodgers-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Kershaw is 4-0, 1.24 in his last four starts, last of which was a no-hitter.
--Duffy is 2-1, 1.75 in his last four starts.
--Dodgers won seven of their last ten games.
--Kansas City lost four of its last five games.
--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Kershaw starts.
•Braves-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Harang is 1-3, 5.16 in his last five starts.
--Feldman is 0-2, 8.35 in his last four starts.
--Atlanta lost five of its last seven games.
--Astros lost six of their last seven games.
--Over is 4-1-1 in last six Harang starts.
•Indians-Arizona - 9:40 PM
--Masterson is 1-4, 8.02 in his last seven road starts.
--Miley is 0-3, 4.57 in his last seven starts.
--Cleveland lost four of its last five games.
--Arizona lost nine of its last twelve games.
--Four of last five Cleveland games went over total.
•Umpires Trends
-- Mia-Phil-- Underdogs won six of last seven Rackley games; over is 3-0-1 in his last four games behind plate.
-- Cin-Chi-- Seven of last eight Iassogna games stayed under.
-- Wsh-Mil-- Home side is 12-1 in last 13 Fletcher games; over is 3-0-1 in his last four games behind plate.
-- StL-Col-- Underdogs are 11-3 in Schrieber games; two of three favorites that won were -$200/-$240.
-- SD-SF-- Last six O'Nora games stayed under the total.
-- NY-Tor-- Six of eight Basner games went over the total.
-- Chi-Balt-- Under is 10-1-1 in last twelve Porter games.
-- Bos-Sea-- Six of last eight Bellino games stayed under.
-- Pitt-TB-- Underdogs won four of last seven Ripperger games.
-- LA-KC-- Five of last six Wendelstedt games stayed under.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•ATLANTA is 3-13 (-13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 2.5, OPPONENT 4.8.
•CLEVELAND is 16-4 OVER (+11.9 Units) after 2 straight games without a stolen base this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 5.4, OPPONENT 6.0.
•LA DODGERS are 4-16 (-19.3 Units) against the run line in road games versus American League teams allowing 4.2 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was LA DODGERS 2.2, OPPONENT 4.5.
•TIM HUDSON is 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HUDSON 5.7, OPPONENT 2.5.
•SCOTT FELDMAN is 13-2 OVER (+11.2 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FELDMAN 5.5, OPPONENT 4.7.
•BARTOLO COLON is 17-4 (+15.7 Units) against the run line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLON 5.6, OPPONENT 2.6.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start.
(61-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.9%, +42.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -187
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 2.6 (Average run differential = +2.6)
The situation's record this season is: (7-3, +0.9 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-7, +16.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (128-51, +34.1 units).
•Play On - Any team against a 1.5 run line (NY METS) - poor National League hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an excellent American League starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20), ice cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games.
(38-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.0%, +27.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (32-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1, money line price: +103
The average score in these games was: Team 3.7, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +0.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (54% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1, +4.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5, +13.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (51-23, +26.4 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(88-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.2%, +46.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9.1, Money Line=-102
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 5.5 (Total runs scored = 10.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 72 (53.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (15-6, +9.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (52-26, +25.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (227-209, +11 units).
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w-thumbs!^
