Service Plays Wednesday 6/25/14

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World Cup Game of the Day: Argentina vs. Nigeria

Argentina vs. Nigeria (-188, +750, Draw +290)

Argentina looks to complete a perfect run through Group F on Wednesday afternoon as it faces a Nigerian side in must-win mode. Narrow victories over Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iran have some fans clamoring for a more aggressive style, but Argentina head coach Alejandro Sabella isn't expected to make any major changes. Nigeria is in the hunt for a berth in the second stage following an impressive 1-0 win over Bosnia-Herzegovina last time out.

Argentina has just three goals through the first two games - a development midfielder Angel Di Maria attributes to opponents playing to prevent scoring. "It's not easy when your opponent sits back and there are too many defenders to beat," he told reporters earlier this week. That trend should continue Wednesday at Porto Alegre's Estadio Beira-Rio against a Nigerian roster that has yet to allow a goal in the tournament, an approach that has earned it four points.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

WORLD RANKINGS: Argentina: No. 5; Nigeria: No. 44.

INJURY REPORT: Argentina: None. Nigeria: D Godfrey Oboabona returned to training after suffering an ankle injury against Iran and hopes to play.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Nigeria come into this game against Argentina with a very poor record against South American sides at the World Cup (L4), and an equally poor record against Argentina in all competitions(L4 D1). Expect Lionel Messi to pile on the misery for the Nigerians here, he's hitting form with eigh goals in his last seven appearances for the National side." Covers Expert Footy Tipster.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "Big game for Nigeria, as a win or a draw will put them through to the next round, it won’t be easy facing a tough Argentinean squad looking to wrap up first spot in group F and move on to the knock out stage. Argentina is a big favorite in this matchup and is seeing 49% of the action, while the action on the 2.5 goal is seeing split action with 46% on the under and 54% on the over." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT ARGENTINA: Fixing what has been a moribund offense starts with a simple step: hitting the target. Argentina has had a dreadful time doing that so far, combining for 33 attempts in its first two victories but managing to land just six on target, good for an 18.1 percent success rate. With Argentina expected to use the 4-3-1-2 formation that worked wonders against Iran, the pressure to convert will once again fall on the shoulders of all-world talent Lionel Messi; he has two of Argentina's three goals and has been the best player on either side in both games.

ABOUT NIGERIA: The Super Eagles' super defense should come as no surprise to those following the team; it allowed just four goals in eight qualification matches leading into the World Cup. The task of dealing with Argentina's talented forwards falls on Vincent Enyaema, the only remaining starting 'keeper yet to allow a goal in the tournament. Nigeria had great success pressuring the Bosnian side in their last game - firing nine shots on target - but should expect more resistance from a stout Argentina defense.

TRENDS:

* Nigeria is winless in four all-time World Cup appearances against South American clubs - including three losses to Argentina.
* Argentina is 11-1 with two draws in its last 14 World Cup group matches, outscoring opponents 27-5 over that span.
* Messi has eight goals in his previous seven World Cup games.
* Nigeria is 1-4 with a draw in its last six showdowns with Argentina.

No Limit Sports

Nigeria +1 (+112)

Bosnia & Herzegovina -.5 (+104)

Ecuador/France Under 2.5 (+110)

Honduras +1 (+124)

Under trending with this starter on the road
Stephen Campbell

San Diego Padres starter Ian Kennedy has been a solid Under play on the road lately with the Under going 7-0 in his last seven outings away from home. Kennedy gets the ball Wednesday when he and the Padres visit the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park.

The Giants are currently -127 faves with a total of seven according to BetOnline.

Here's your hottest umpiring trend for Wednesday
Stephen Campbell

The Tampa Bay Rays love playing with umpire Lance Barksdale behind home plate. Tampa is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven with the ump calling balls and strikes. They'll reunite when Tampa hosts the Pittsburgh Pirates at the Trop Wednesday.

BetOnline currently has the Rays as -147 faves with the O/U at seven for the interleague matchup.

[h=3]Steve's Six Pack[/h]Jordan Spieth 13/1 - Spieth is the best golfer in the world right now in my opinion and will be on this list for the foreseeable future. He has posted Top 20 finishes in six of his last seven starts and returns to a course that he looked great on last season. Through the first two rounds Spieth was tied for the lead, but unfortunately shot a 3rd round 74 and would go onto finish in 6th place. Jordan made just three bogeys in his 1st, 2nd and 4th rounds combined here last season.
Jordan has a ridiculous 14 Top 25 finishes in just 18 starts this season. He puts himself in position to win almost every week and it is his putting that has a large part to do with it. Jordan is 29th on Tour for Stokes Gained through Putting, and 7th on Tour for putting between 15 and 20 feet. A key this week will be players ability to scramble as Congressional is difficult around the greens, and Jordan is excellent at getting the ball up and down (sits 8th on Tour in Scrambling 63%).
Brendon Todd 30/1 - Todd is really playing some great golf right now. Following his win at the HP Byron Nelson Championship he has finishes of Crowne Plaza (T5), Memorial (T8) and US Open (T17). He would have actually contended for the US Open on Sunday if he hadn't shot a 79 during his third round, as he was -5 in his other three rounds. The University of Georgia Alum is riding this excellent momentum right into a tournament he has a good history at.
Todd placed T13 here last season and that was after an opening round 74. During Todd's second and third rounds here last season he made an impressive 9 birdies and just two bogeys. Todd loved shooting at these greens as he hit an impressive 78% of them in Regulation last season at Congressional. He will want to work on his bunker play though as he was just 33% last year at getting the ball up and down out of them. Look for Todd to ride his momentum right into a great Maryland finish.
Webb Simpson 29/1 - It just feels like Webb Simpson is going to win very soon. He placed T3 just three weeks ago at the St. Jude Classic and will be playing a course this week that he loves. Simpson stated during the 2011 US Open here that he loves the layout of Congressional and likes how it challenges the players. He placed T14 that year at the US Open, so he really did enjoy the course.
Simpson has only played in this event once before and he finished T35. Though that doesn't seem impressive it should be noted that he did have rounds of 67 and 68 that week (it was his Par 4 performance that hurt him as he played them +5 for the week). Simpson is 9th on Tour in Strokes Gained Through Putting and an impressive 31st in Scrambling. Simpson is 2nd on Tour for putting between 10-15 feet and is 3rd on Tour for putting between 20-25 feet. This North Carolina native is going to be on the first page of the leaderboard all week at Congressional.
Hunter Mahan 45/1 - we go with another great putter in Hunter Mahan as our next selection. No one is talking about Hunter this week because he has missed the Cut in his past two starts. They are over looking his terrific record here though (2007 - T8, 2008 - T12, 2009 - 2nd, 2012 - T8, 2013 -MC). I would say that four finishes inside the Top 15 out of five chances should get him some recognition.
Mahan has worked very hard this season on his scrambling but he still relies very heavily on his putting. A key for Hunter will be to hit plenty of Greens in Regulation this week, something he has done in the past at Congressional. On the season Hunter hits more than 65% of his Greens in Regulation. The one thing I love that Hunter does well is his ability to drive the ball long and straight off the tee. Hunter ranks 10th on Tour in Total Driving, and his ability to hit fairways this week should help vault him up the leaderboard.
Kevin Chappell 75/1 - Chappell is a name the we see every few months near the Top of leaderboards. I feel that it will be a more common name on the first page of leaderboards in the next few years. Chappell was playing well until he struggled the past two tournaments, but Congressional should help get him back on track. Many will remember Kevin finishing in a tie for 3rd at the 2011 US Open (at Congressional). In his two editions of this tournament he has finished 2012 - T58 and 2013 - T28.
On the season Kevin ranks 20th on Tour in Total Driving and that allows him to rank 25th on Tour for Greens in Regulation (68%). Putting will be the key to Chappell's success this week as he ranks 159th on Tour for Strokes Gained through Putting. Look for him to draw on those emotions from 2011 at the US Open and get that flat stick working.
Nick Watney 60/1 - Watney is my pick this week and that is even surprising for me to say. Nick posted his first Top 20 of the season last week at the Travelers Championship when he finished T11 (17 Tournaments). I have been waiting for him to start playing well because he is one of the more talented players on Tour. Watney has won 5 times during his career on the PGA Tour ( 2007 - Zurich Classic, 2009 - Buick Invitational, 2011- WGC Caddillac, 2011 - AT&T National, 2012 - Barclays).
Watney won this event the year it was held at Aronimink because of the United States Open being played at Congressional. He did enjoy a good tournament at Congressional in 2012 though when he finished 10th. You know Watney wants to get back to being one of the best players on Tour and he must think about the Ryder Cup coming up this season. To make that team Watney will probably need a win, and this week seems like a great place for that to happen.
[h=3]HEAD TO HEAD[/h]We have been dominating the HEAD to HEADS recently to help minimize the damage from the outright selections. We go with another big head to head.
4 Units - Jordan Spieth (-1.5) -135 over Tiger Woods - will will take Spieth on the spread against Woods as the ML is as high as -160. He will have no trouble beating Tiger by 2 strokes this week as we all know Woods will be rusty. Spieth will be in the Top 10 yet again this week and will win us some nice Units on this match up.
Steve

BeatYourBookie

WEDNESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play New York Yankees +110 over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)

New York is 40-24 when playing on a Wednesday
New York is 41-34 when playing in the month of June
New York is 98-84 vs. division opponents the last three seasons


10* Play Miami +110 over Philadelphia (MLB TOP PLAY)

Philadelphia is 32-46 when playing in the month of June
Philadelphia is 24-38 when playing on a Wednesday
Philadelphia is 13-20 at home when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs


=============================================

5* Play Houston +110 over Atlanta (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play San Diego +120 over San Francisco (MLB BONUS PLAY)

XpertPicks

WEDNESDAY BASEBALL

• Play Miami +110 over Philadelphia----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:00 PM EST

Henderson Alvarez has won 4 consecutive games when pitching in the month of June and he has won 10 of the last 13 games after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings. Henderson Alvarez has won 9 of the last 14 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has an ERA of 1.45 in his last three starts.

• Play Houston +110 over Atlanta----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  8:00 PM EST

Alex Wood has lost 4 of the last 5 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150 and he has lost 6 of the last 8 games when pitching in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half of the season. Alex Wood has lost three of the last four games when pitching as a road favorite of -110 or higher and he is 0-3 over the last three starts with an ERA of 5.00.

Baseball Crusher
Washington Nationals -130 over Milwaukee Brewers
(System Record: 48-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 48-37

Rest of the Plays
Cincinnati Reds -125 over Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox +144 over Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals -130 over Los Angeles Dodgers

Carlos Salazars Wednesday Night MLB Bookie Crusher

Boston +127

Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at Texas

The Tigers look to follow up on their 8-2 win in last night's series opener as they face a Texas team that is 1-11 in its last 12 games as a home underdog. Detroit is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

WNBA Basketball Picks

Chicago at Connecticut

The Sun play host to a Chicago team that is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games between the two teams. Chicago is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

Hondo

Hondo made a modest gain Tuesday night when his triumph with the Pirates more than offset his setback with the Royals to trim the filthy figure to 1,435 sanfords.

Wednesday: Mr. Aitch will freak out if Lincecum doesn’t show the Padres who their daddy is — 10 units on the Giants.

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Wednesday

Nationals -130

Marlins/Phils under 7.5

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play WED Cinci Reds -125

Wednesday's WCup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith


Argentina vs. Nigeria (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Argentina face Nigeria in one of two simultaneous Group F games, happening at 1 o’clock Brazil time. Argentina have been dealt an extremely favourable draw: not only are they in an easy group, they are also playing all their matches in friendly conditions. This match takes place at the Estadio Beira-Rio, in the far south of Brazil. Hundreds of thousands of Argentines are crossing the border to be in Porto Alegre for the game.

The game is meaningless for Argentina in terms of qualification, but Nigeria still have lots to play for. They need a point to guarantee progress, otherwise they will be sweating on whether or not Iran can beat Bosnia.

Argentina have been underwhelming so far, and needed a last minute piece of Lionel Messi magic to beat Iran. They are heavy favourites here at 11/25 with sportsbook.ag, and despite two iffy performances, I see little from Nigeria to suggest that they can trouble Alejandro Sabella’s side. Backing Argentina +1.5 looks the best option at quotes of 27/20. I expect Argentina, like Brazil, to take this opportunity of a third group game to really kick-start their tournament. Nigeria, because they may not even need a point, make little appeal at either 15/2 to win the match, or 3/1 to take a draw from it.

In the first goalscorer market, Gonzalo Higuain and Sergio Aguero have been very disappointing so far for Argentina, in contrast to the majestic Messi, who is stupidly short at 5/4 to score first. I’m going to stick with fancying Higuain at 5/2 - he has the ability to punish a dodgy Nigerian defence.

Top bet: Argentina -1.5 at 27/20


Iran vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Iran meet Bosnia-Herzegovina at the spectacular Fonte Nova stadium in Salvador. Only one side has anything to play for, but surprisingly that side is Iran, not the fancied debutants Bosnia, who have crashed out after two defeats. Iran were stubborn in a 0-0 with Nigeria, and then suffered last minute heartbreak against Argentina after a wonderfully dogged defensive performance. Carlos Queiroz’s men could even have won the match.

Iran need to win this match, and hope that Nigeria do not beat Argentina, in order to qualify. However they could find it difficult against a Bosnia side who, despite a short-lived visit to this major tournament, look well set for the future. They gave Argentina a good game first up, while bad finishing let them down against Nigeria.

Bosnia play best when given freedom, and the freedom of having nothing to play for makes them appealing at 6/5 to win the game. They will be bolder than in previous matches, where they sacrificed some attacking threat for more defensive solidity, and it didn’t really work. Iran are 11/5 to claim the win they need, while a draw is 12/5.

Surely this time Safet Susic will field the two strikers who were so key in getting them to Brazil together. Vedad Ibisevic and Edin Dzeko scored 18 between them in just 10 games in qualifying, and are 7/2 and 5/2 respectively to break the deadlock. The market leader for Iran is Charlton Athletic striker Reza Ghoochannejhad at 11/2.

Top bet: Bosnia-Herzegovina to win at 6/5


France vs. Ecuador (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. ET)

France play Ecuador in one of two Group E matches on Wednesday evening. This game takes place at the famous Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. France only need a point to fully guarantee winning the group, while Ecuador need to equal Switzerland’s result against Honduras to progress to the last 16, where they would likely face an all-South American tie with second-favourites Argentina.

In 3-0 and 5-2 wins over Honduras and Switzerland, France have arguably been the most impressive side at the World Cup so far. They have not been hampered at all by the injury to Franck Ribery, with Mathieu Valbuena admirably taking full control of the creative side of the job. Karim Benzema has scored three times already.

They are the strong favourites to win at 69/100, and given their last two performances there seems little reason to doubt that the French steamroller will come to a halt. Ecuador are 7/2 to claim a win that would 99.9% guarantee their progress, while a draw is a 3/1 chance. Bookies are right in predicting a high-scoring encounter given both sides’ games so far. Over 2.5 is 77/100.

The first goalscorer market for this match is an interesting one. Benzema’s form is stellar, but 3/2 is short enough on him for me to look elsewhere. Ecuador’s centre-backs, Guagua and Erazo, are a potential weakness, and it is easy to foresee 7/2 shot Olivier Giroud bullying them. He links up well with Valbuena and is a good shout. The 7/1 on Enner Valencia, scorer of all three Ecuador goals in Brazil, isn’t as skinny as it might be either.

Top bet: Olivier Giroud to score first at 7/2


Honduras vs. Switzerland (ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET)

Honduras, despite two defeats from two, still stand a tiny chance of getting to the knockout stages, but all the attention in Manaus will be on Switzerland, who only need to better Ecuador’s result against France to get through. After a fine opening day win, Ottmar Hitzfeld’s Swiss side were brought crashing back down to earth as their French neighbours spanked them 5-2. Honduras were also outplayed by France, before surrendering a 1-0 lead to lose to Ecuador.

The conditions in Manaus, a city almost unreachable by road in the heart of the Amazon, favour Honduras greatly. Of the three matches at the Arena Amazonia so far, only one favourite has won. The humidity and the heat are testing, particularly to teams like Switzerland who are a) European, and b) reliant on a high-energy style of playing.

All this means 2/5 on Switzerland looks too short, with 333/100 on a draw the best bet, given that if, as expected, France beat Ecuador, it would be enough for Switzerland to qualify. A Honduras win is 6/1.

By far the best bet here is Over 3.5 at evens (1/1) in the Total Cards market (yellow = 1, red = 2, max 3 per player). Before the tournament, Honduras kicked lumps out of England in a friendly; against France they had Wilson Palacios sent off and had three other yellows, while between them Ecuador and Honduras had five yellows last time out. They are a team that is highly aggressive, and relies on fouling to break up the rhythm of their opponents.

Top bet: Over 3.5 Total Cards at 1/1

Argentina aims to clinch Group F Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

NIGERIA vs. ARGENTINA

Kickoff: Wednesday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Estadio Beira-Rio – Porto Alegre, Brazil

Line:
Argentina -196, Nigeria +625, Tie +275
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -114, Under -114)

Group F play of the World Cup wraps up on Wednesday when the top two teams in the group, Argentina and Nigeria both look to claim the top spot.

Nigeria has yet to allow a goal in the World Cup, drawing 0-0 with Iran before prevailing 1-0 over Bosnia-Herzegovina. If the heavy underdog can defeat Argentina in this matchup, it will win the group, but if Iran beats Bosnia-Herzegovina and surpasses a losing Nigeria team in goal differential, Nigeria will be eliminated. If both Iran and Nigeria finish tied in points, goal differential and total goals, the second-place team would be determined by drawing lots, something this tournament has never had to resort to. Argentina already knows they are moving on, taking out Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 before a narrow 1-0 victory over Iran. Argentina needs only a draw to win the group, and will finish second with a loss to Nigeria.

The Super Eagles played a very even game with Bosnia-Herzegovina, holding the advantage in shots by a 20-18 margin, including 13-10 in shots on goal. Nigeria held the ball for 46% of the time, while corner kicks were even at 4-4. Goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama recorded seven saves in the shutout victory, after needing to save only three shots in the scoreless draw with Iran. Nigeria also trimmed its fouls from 16 versus Iran to nine against Bosnia-Herzegovina, with John Obi Mikel becoming the club's lone player with a yellow card at the 81st minute. Striker Peter Odemwingie was the team's lone goal-scorer 29 minutes in, but the Super Eagles know that star forward Emmanuel Emenike, who netted 15 goals in 32 games at the club level this season, will have to be heard from to earn a point in this match.

Argentina will be playing a virtual home match, as this venue is close to their country's border and it will be packed with Maracana faithful. Lionel Messi has carried his club this tournament with two goals, while the team's other tally came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina. Messi has already surpassed his total of one goal in his first two World Cup tournament appearances. Although Argentina has not dominated as expected, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina and a whopping 70% versus Iran. The Maracana fired 19 shots against Iran, but only nine were on net. However, this was a huge improvement from its 11 shots (5 on goal) in their tournament opener. Argentina also produced 10 corner-kick chances versus Iran, compared to only two against Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with zero offsides calls and only 18 total fouls. Their lone yellow card was issued to defender Marcos Rojo in the opening match, so they will want to make sure nobody picks up a card in this match for a team that has legitimate aspirations of winning this entire tournament.

Iran tries to advance with big win on Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA vs. IRAN

Kickoff: Wednesday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Fonte Nova – Salvador, Brazil

Line:
Bosnia-Herzegovina +120, Iran +220, Tie +240
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +105, Under -135)

Underdog Iran needs a big win over Bosnia-Herzegovina and some help on Wednesday to move onto the Round of 16.

Iran has played a mostly defensive World Cup, opening their tournament with a 0-0 tie with Nigeria before losing 1-0 to Argentina on an extra-time goal by superstar Lionel Messi. With only one point and a minus-1 goal differential, Iran has to win to stay alive and then hope Nigeria loses to Argentina by more than one goal. If Iran and Nigeria wind up being tied in points and goal differential, the team moving on to the next round would be determined by drawing lots, which is something the World Cup has never had to do to break a tie between two teams. Bosnia-Herzegovina has lost both of its matches in its first-ever World Cup to eliminate themselves, falling 2-1 to Argentina and 1-0 to Nigeria. But they want to leave the tournament on a high note, and are favored to knock off Iran and send them home too.

Bosnia-Herzegovina has had plenty of chances in the World Cup, with 18 total shots (10 on goal) versus Nigeria to give them 34 shots (21 on goal) for the tournament. They also held a 54% possession edge and committed only seven fouls in the heart-breaking defeat to Nigeria, which got its lone tally in the 29th minute. Bosnia-Herzegovina defender Haris Medunjanin picked up a yellow card in the sixth minute of that match, but that was the team's only card in that defeat. Forward Edin Dzeko has missed plenty of scoring chances during this tournament, but his disallowed goal against Nigeria that was incorrectly ruled offsides could have been a huge difference maker for his team, and would've given them a chance at advancing with a victory in Wednesday's match. Dzeko may not play in the tournament finale for Bosnia-Herzegovina, as coach Safet Susic is expected to utilize his reserves more to give the team a spark.

Iran has been thoroughly dominated in time of possession in both World Cup matches, holding the ball for 37% of the time versus Nigeria and only 30% of the time versus Argentina. They have taken just 15 shots in the two matches combined, and only seven of those attempts have been on goal. With a win being the only desirable result on Wednesday, look for Iran to really set the tone on offense and abandon it's strictly defensive game plan. Carlos Queiroz knows this could be his last match as the team's coach, as he is stepping down after the tournament because the Iranian government is not giving him proper financial backing. Iran has been whistled for only two offsides all tournament, but have committed 32 fouls, including three yellow cards by midfielders Andranik Timotian, Javad Nekonam and Masoud Shojaei. Winning the match is obviously Iran's top priority, but it cannot afford to have any of these three players pick up that second yellow card and be disqualified for their potential Round of 16 match.