2 Thursday w/analysis

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HOME TEAM IN CAPS

MILWAUKEE -1½ +107 over Colorado
Colorado is and always has been the Jekyll and Hyde in MLB. They win at home consistently but get them on the road and they turn into one of the worst teams in baseball. The Rockies have 15 road wins this season in 39 games. They just completed a six-game home stand and lost five of them, which included getting swept by these Brewers. Overall, the Rocks have dropped nine of 10 and now battered, bruised and not playing well, they take their dreadful road record back on the road with Christian Friedrich starting. How Friedrich received a call up to the majors is a mystery, as in 13 starts with AAA-Colorado Springs this season, he was 1-8 with a 7.89 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP and an oppBA of .324 in 67.1 IP. He managed to make it through six innings in his first start last week although he allowed nine runs and that was against these same Brewers. He also walked three batters while striking out the same amount.

Wily Peralta allowed four runs (three earned) in 7.2 innings in his last start in that same game that Friedrich started. However, he was outstanding despite the pitching line, which made him look average. Peralta induced 23 groundball outs to just seven fly-balls at Coors Field. Over his last five starts, Peralta has one of the best profiles in the game. Peralta's 57%/17%/26% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates over that span is spectacular. His 95 MPH four-seamer velocity is also one of the best in the game. Peralta goes right after hitters, choosing to induce groundballs as oppose to striking batters out and what that does is keep his pitch count down and allows him to work deeper into games. He has a 3.18 ERA at Miller Park, the Brewers have won his last four starts and now this red-hot team and pitcher get one of their easiest assignments to date. Yeah, we'll step in.

Chicago +152 over TORONTO
It's not customary for us to make a play on a cold team but J.A. Happ cannot be in this price range and that prompts us to step in. Furthermore, the Blue Jays aren't exactly setting the world on fire either with just six wins in their past 18 games and now Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista and Steve Tolleson are out. Furthermore, the Jays pen is reeling and they figure to get more work in here. Happ is a fly-ball pitcher with poor control in a HR hitting park so don't expect the disasters to stop anytime soon. Happ has been tagged for 15 hits and 10 runs over his past two starts at Rogers Center over 11.1 frames. Over his last five starts (three on the road), Happ has posted an ugly 1.56 WHIP and has walked 14 batters over 35 innings. His WHIP on the year now stands at 1.64 while his ERA stands at 4.87. More notably, Happ's xERA over his past six starts is 5.76. The South Side has won five of their past seven games in Toronto and this one is very winnable.

Scott Carroll is the reason the Jays are so heavily favored. Carroll has been working out of the pen since May 25, after he allowed six runs in four innings against the Royals. The start previously, Carroll lost an 11-0 decision to the A's. Carroll should be ready to return to the rotation, as he worked three or more innings in five of his six appearances as a long reliever. After getting pounded for 17 earned runs in his past three starts, he allowed only four earned runs in 19.2 IP of relief. Carroll has mostly been a starter for his career. He was originally drafted by the Reds in the third round of the 2007 draft before being signed by the White Sox off of release waivers midway through 2012. Carroll missed the majority of 2013 after Tommy John surgery after the 2012 campaign. He doesn’t throw very hard, but induces a high number of groundballs with his two-seam fastball. He exhibits loose arm action to produce movement to his 87-93 mph fastball that he locates quite well. Carroll has two breaking balls in a hard slider and slow curveball, though neither are anything more than fringe-average. Carroll has an ideal pitcher’s frame with size and strength, but he doesn’t have the velocity or aggressive demeanor to match. Thing is, we've seen the Jays struggle against this type of pitcher many times with the latest coming against Mike Leake in Cincinnati. Like Leake, Carroll has a strong groundball rate of 50% and low line-drive rate of 18%. He's walked too many batters this season but that is due to him trying to be too fine. He has good control of his pitches and if he trusts his stuff and goes right after hitters like he did in relief, he has a chance to be successful. Having said that, this one is all about fading J.A. Happ, a pitcher that has a much better chance of losing every time he takes the hill than he does of picking up a win and that is an instant fade when he's priced this high.

Go get em Sherwood. Best wishes, Sir.

gl sherwood

thanks pack and goin....

gl sir....sweep it up