3 Friday w/analysis

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Minnesota/TEXAS over 9½ -106

The Twins just got swept by the Angels but prior to that they had won four in a row. Overall, the Twinkies have scored four runs or more in seven straight games and that figures to continue here against Nick Tepesch. Tepsech posted decent skills in nearly 100 IP of work for Texas in 2013 but found himself in Triple-A after a rough spring. He returned to the rotation in May after Martin Perez went down and the follow-up has been less than inspiring. Tepsech's 4.30 ERA is not only a mirage, so was his 2013's strikeout rate growth, apparently. He doesn't have an over-powering arsenal, and it's reflected in a mediocre 7% swing and miss rate. He's been more wild this season as well, further compounding the damage of his strikeouts drop. He doesn't have a true "out" pitch either. Tepesch was able to utilize his height (6'4") to induce grounders in the past but that hasn't been the case this year, especially over his last six starts in ehich his groundball rate was a mere 35%. More fly-balls is something we love to see when playing overs at Globe Life Park. Although he's just 25, Tepesch's upside seems limited. A 50%/33% quality start/disaster start isn't great and those disasters are becoming more frequent. Tepesch has a 5.40 ERA at home this year, he has an xERA of 5.55 over his last five starts, his BB/K ratio is poor and his time at this level is running out.

Then there’s Kevin (Line Drive) Correia. That’s not his official nickname but let’s call him that because almost every ball hit off him is hit hard. Correia has 42 K’s in 84 innings and his low strikeout rate comes with a fully supported 5% swing and miss rate. Correia has surrendered one run or less in five of his last six starts but it was all lucks, as his 5.06 xERA over that span will attest to. Furthermore, all of those starts with the exception of one against Milwaukee came against the struggling offenses of Chicago (AL), Boston, the Yanks and Blue Jays. Incidentally, in that start against the Crew, Correia was ripped apart for 10 hits and five runs in five frames and in his other starts, his strand rate was 88%. Even with a run of good fortune that will not last, Correia’s ERA is still over 5, his WHIP is 1.46 and his oppBAA is .302. Imagine what will happen when his luck runs out and this park usually exposes the good fortune of bad pitchers. This is a beatable total because these are two of the worst starters in baseball hooking up at an extreme hitter’s park.

Boston -101 over N.Y. YANKEES
Ask 30 GM's in the majors which starter they would rather invest in, Brandon Workman or Vidal Nuno, and all 30 would choose Workman without hesitation. We'll do the same. Nuno is pitching for the worst Yankees team in the last 15 years and the only reason the Yanks are above .500 is because the AL East is so weak this year. Nuno has started 12 games and has three pure quality starts and one victory. His 50 K's in 67 frames is not supported by his swing and miss rate of 7%. Nuno's swing and miss rate over his last three starts is 4½%. Nuno comes in with a 5.88 overall ERA and a 0-3 record at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 7.09 and xERA of 6.49. Spotting even a small on the Yanks with Nuno going cannot be recommended.

Brandon Workman is so much better than Nuno right now. Workman is coming off a solid performance against the Indians at Fenway in which he went six full and gave up five hits and two earned runs. The start previously against the Orioles, he threw a one-hit gem in 6.2 innings. Over his past two starts, Workman has allowed just six hits and two earned runs in 12.2 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. In his five starts since being promoted, Workman has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start while posting a BB/K split of 12/28 in 34 innings. It's not his first rodeo either. Workman quietly was fantastic in the second half with Boston in 2013 with 10.2 K's/9 and a 45% groundball rate. Workman's stock is on the rise and now is the time to invest before that occurs. Workman and the Red Sox may be the best value on today's board.

L.A. Angels +100 over KANSAS CITY
If this is the sucker play of the day shame on us. The Angels are red-hot with six straight wins and seven wins in their past eight games. Over that eight-game span the Halos have scored five runs or more in six games, which includes a 5-2 win over Yu Darvish and the Rangers. Additionally, the Angels have defeated the Royals six of the past seven meetings. Matt Shoemaker had four starts in May and made the most of his opportunities with 9K's per nine and a 50% groundball rate, Shoemaker's 3.16 xERA that month gave full support to his actual 3.38 ERA. Shoemaker was even better in June with a BB/K split of 4/31 over four starts covering 27 innings. With an elite 12% swing and miss rate to go along with his strong groundball profile and 2.80 xERA in June, Shoemaker is getting better with each passing month. Pitching for the hottest team in baseball doesn't hurt either.

Meanwhile, after an eye-opening 10-game winning streak the Royals have regressed badly with six losses in their past seven games. Over that span they have scored one run or less four times. Jason Vargas comes in with a solid 3.16 ERA over 16 starts but unlike Shoemaker, Vargas' ERA does not come with full skills support. In fact, Vargas has an xERA of 4.07 and an even worse xERA of 4.24 over his last five starts. Vargas has been greatly aided by an unsustainable 81% strand rate and a puny 2% HR/FB rate. Once that normalizes, his ERA will suffer. Vargas has good control but he only has 73 K's in 108 innings. He's good for 200 fair-to-middling, blandly consumed innings but he's not an ace and he's definitely not as good as his surface stats suggest. Hot versus cold gets the call.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
8,518
Tokens
RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday110.00+0.14
Last 30 Days50390.00+32.67
Season to Date1201230.00+28.17

<tbody>
</tbody>

All plays are for 2 units. Boston is to win 2 units
HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Minnesota/TEXAS over 9½ -106

The Twins just got swept by the Angels but prior to that they had won four in a row. Overall, the Twinkies have scored four runs or more in seven straight games and that figures to continue here against Nick Tepesch. Tepsech posted decent skills in nearly 100 IP of work for Texas in 2013 but found himself in Triple-A after a rough spring. He returned to the rotation in May after Martin Perez went down and the follow-up has been less than inspiring. Tepsech's 4.30 ERA is not only a mirage, so was his 2013's strikeout rate growth, apparently. He doesn't have an over-powering arsenal, and it's reflected in a mediocre 7% swing and miss rate. He's been more wild this season as well, further compounding the damage of his strikeouts drop. He doesn't have a true "out" pitch either. Tepesch was able to utilize his height (6'4") to induce grounders in the past but that hasn't been the case this year, especially over his last six starts in ehich his groundball rate was a mere 35%. More fly-balls is something we love to see when playing overs at Globe Life Park. Although he's just 25, Tepesch's upside seems limited. A 50%/33% quality start/disaster start isn't great and those disasters are becoming more frequent. Tepesch has a 5.40 ERA at home this year, he has an xERA of 5.55 over his last five starts, his BB/K ratio is poor and his time at this level is running out.

Then there’s Kevin (Line Drive) Correia. That’s not his official nickname but let’s call him that because almost every ball hit off him is hit hard. Correia has 42 K’s in 84 innings and his low strikeout rate comes with a fully supported 5% swing and miss rate. Correia has surrendered one run or less in five of his last six starts but it was all lucks, as his 5.06 xERA over that span will attest to. Furthermore, all of those starts with the exception of one against Milwaukee came against the struggling offenses of Chicago (AL), Boston, the Yanks and Blue Jays. Incidentally, in that start against the Crew, Correia was ripped apart for 10 hits and five runs in five frames and in his other starts, his strand rate was 88%. Even with a run of good fortune that will not last, Correia’s ERA is still over 5, his WHIP is 1.46 and his oppBAA is .302. Imagine what will happen when his luck runs out and this park usually exposes the good fortune of bad pitchers. This is a beatable total because these are two of the worst starters in baseball hooking up at an extreme hitter’s park.

Boston -101 over N.Y. YANKEES
Ask 30 GM's in the majors which starter they would rather invest in, Brandon Workman or Vidal Nuno, and all 30 would choose Workman without hesitation. We'll do the same. Nuno is pitching for the worst Yankees team in the last 15 years and the only reason the Yanks are above .500 is because the AL East is so weak this year. Nuno has started 12 games and has three pure quality starts and one victory. His 50 K's in 67 frames is not supported by his swing and miss rate of 7%. Nuno's swing and miss rate over his last three starts is 4½%. Nuno comes in with a 5.88 overall ERA and a 0-3 record at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 7.09 and xERA of 6.49. Spotting even a small on the Yanks with Nuno going cannot be recommended.

Brandon Workman is so much better than Nuno right now. Workman is coming off a solid performance against the Indians at Fenway in which he went six full and gave up five hits and two earned runs. The start previously against the Orioles, he threw a one-hit gem in 6.2 innings. Over his past two starts, Workman has allowed just six hits and two earned runs in 12.2 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. In his five starts since being promoted, Workman has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start while posting a BB/K split of 12/28 in 34 innings. It's not his first rodeo either. Workman quietly was fantastic in the second half with Boston in 2013 with 10.2 K's/9 and a 45% groundball rate. Workman's stock is on the rise and now is the time to invest before that occurs. Workman and the Red Sox may be the best value on today's board.

L.A. Angels +100 over KANSAS CITY
If this is the sucker play of the day shame on us. The Angels are red-hot with six straight wins and seven wins in their past eight games. Over that eight-game span the Halos have scored five runs or more in six games, which includes a 5-2 win over Yu Darvish and the Rangers. Additionally, the Angels have defeated the Royals six of the past seven meetings. Matt Shoemaker had four starts in May and made the most of his opportunities with 9K's per nine and a 50% groundball rate, Shoemaker's 3.16 xERA that month gave full support to his actual 3.38 ERA. Shoemaker was even better in June with a BB/K split of 4/31 over four starts covering 27 innings. With an elite 12% swing and miss rate to go along with his strong groundball profile and 2.80 xERA in June, Shoemaker is getting better with each passing month. Pitching for the hottest team in baseball doesn't hurt either.

Meanwhile, after an eye-opening 10-game winning streak the Royals have regressed badly with six losses in their past seven games. Over that span they have scored one run or less four times. Jason Vargas comes in with a solid 3.16 ERA over 16 starts but unlike Shoemaker, Vargas' ERA does not come with full skills support. In fact, Vargas has an xERA of 4.07 and an even worse xERA of 4.24 over his last five starts. Vargas has been greatly aided by an unsustainable 81% strand rate and a puny 2% HR/FB rate. Once that normalizes, his ERA will suffer. Vargas has good control but he only has 73 K's in 108 innings. He's good for 200 fair-to-middling, blandly consumed innings but he's not an ace and he's definitely not as good as his surface stats suggest. Hot versus cold gets the call.



Thanks for posting, gluck on the games have a great Canada Day Weekend.:103631605
 

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