Saturday: That was embarrassing

1-3, -2.46 units Friday. Embarrassing for me to take Boston after watching them look fairly feeble in Seattle. Embarrassing for them that Nuno had the game of his career. Nuno looked good too, he wasn't lucky. So here's a reversal on Friday's stupid Red Sox bet:

NYY -1 (-107) 4 units
NYY ML -149. One unit. I just can't imagine the Red Sox getting to Tanaka. Tanaka is such a competitor and loves the big stage. He had one good outing vs. the Sox, and I expect this one could be better. The Red Sox are 2-6 vs. a weaker Yankee team this year. And let's really look at Boston's past few weeks. They lose 3 out of 4 in Oakland, 2 out of 3 in Seattle, and in none of the games did they blast out with the bats. A good outing vs. Iwakuma, who is off his game- and a good game vs. Milone, who is an average pitcher. They swept Minnesota 3 in Fenway, but hit terribly, and before that lost two 3-2 games vs. Cleveland. They did batter Masterson, who has been awful this year. And before that, looked bad losing to Baltimore(scoring about 1 run the whole series), Detroit and so on. They have looked awful vs. good pitching, even mediocre pitching…. and Tanaka is great pitching. I could go up and down their lineup and show why, but I don't have the time. All I can say is that it's not a blip in the season. If not for their good pitching, they would be seriously in Tampa territory.

I know the Yankees have a mediocre infield defense, but their outfield defense is very good, and fast.

Lester has been solid this year, but the Yankees have seen him many, many times, and there will be no surprises. If Lester is getting his slider well positioned, this could be a low scoring game. But Lester has lost a little velocity, and he is just not a dominant pitcher like Tanaka. The Yankees also hit left-handed pitching much better than RHP, and hit better at home. They have Boston's number, are 2 games out of 1st, and win with weaker pitching than Boston's. I think this -1 number is very generous.

Oakland -1 (-105). 3 units. Miami's closer, Cishek, is probably not available Saturday after getting hammered Friday for 4 runs in the 9th. In fact, Miami's once decent BP has been faltering of late. Their offense has been much worse, hitting .210 this past week and whiffing in June more than any other NL team by 30 Ks. They got to Chavez Friday who did not have his best stuff. Sonny Gray had a so-so stretch, but looks to be straightened out. I have a feeling he is going to go through a dominant period now, being streaky as he is. Gray has consistent mechanics that make it really hard to pick up his pitches. Gray also has a huge edge on Eovaldi in that he has a wide repertoire of pitches that he commands well. Eovaldi throws harder, but is pretty much a fastball, slider pitcher- but strikes out few batters. His off speed stuff is rarely used and not as effective.

I also like this game because Gray has been slogging through the very tough AL, with never a break at the end of the lineup- but a good hitting DH inside the lineup. Eovaldi's number are in the NL, where starters gladly watch rallies die as the 8th and 9th batter come up. And Eovaldi hasn't faced Milwaukee, LA, Cinn, and the Rockies only once on his first start of the season. He gott bombed by Pittsburgh and SF, 2 of the other decent hitting teams of the NL. Gray has an excellent BP, Miami has a now fading BP. The A's are a great road team, and have to be feeling good about last night's 9th inning explosion.

Seattle ML -120. Two units. The Mariners have been hitting up a storm of late, which is rare, but they are streaky when they do hit. Josh Tomlin is the perfect pitcher for them. A right-hander, with mediocre stuff who happens to be pitching badly right now. Tomiln's last 3 starts look like this: 15 IPs, 28 hits, 18 runs. He is also giving up a large proportion of fly balls; not good for a guy that is mediocre to begin with. Tomlin fooled us all earlier in the year by looking good, but if you check his stats out the past few years, he's just another high ERA pitcher that the Indians have been saddled with because they have nothing better. Seattle is loaded with lefties. Cano is their best lefty and best hitter, but Seager and L. Morrisoin are red hot and are also lefties. Saunders just returned from the DL and looks comfortable at the plate already- another lefty. They can stack the lineup and run Tomlin out early. The Seattle hitters who have faced Tomlin are 16-33 off of him.

The Indians also have a lot of lefties, but Elias, the Seattle starter is also a LHP. He is tough on lefties giving up a .203 average this year vs. LH hitting. The Mariners have the best bullpen in the AL, and right now are pitching better than ever. They had Thursday off and are well rested.

I forsee a sweep today fred. You're on the way to 3-0

Bigtomdawg said:

I forsee a sweep today fred. You're on the way to 3-0

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I am laying a lot of units on the line so tail at your own risk. I've had disastrous days before and great ones too. Usually in between though. Don't tail blindly. You could be risking more than you would normally risk.

Detroit TT (-125) 3 units. Once again I don't trust Tiger pitching. But the Tigers have some great hitters and some hot hitters, many of them, who can line up against lefty Oberholtzer. KInsler and JD Martinez are both crushing it, there's Cabrera, Victor M is a switcher, Holaday their good hitting catcher, Davis, Suarez, Tori Hunter, etc. The Astros bullpen is also a little taxed after last night's extra inning game. The Tiger 2-4 hitters were 0-14 and I don't think we'll see that again. The Tigers were on a tear until last night when Peacock and the Astros BP held them to 3- that's one less than they need today. Oberholtzer was pitching fair(4.76 ERA) when sent down to AAA, but then gave up 9 HRs in just 4 starts there. He throws strikes and I have a feeling the Tigers will tee off on his low 90s, high 80s fastball.

Not sure if I'm going to play them but I like them all. Especially Seattle.

Cinn. ML +108. One unit. Matt Cain always has one bad inning, and the way the Reds are hitting he might have two. The Giants have been in a month long slump and face a consistently tough pitcher in Simon. I think the Giants played over their heads the first 2 months and maybe they're not this bad, but they aren't that good either.

I really liked Seattle today and they look like total shit so far.