[h=1]Who's the best bet for UFC 175?[/h][h=3]Grappling will take center stage in this event's key bouts[/h]
By Reed Kuhn | ESPN Insider
If you're one of the 30,000 UFC fans expected to attend the UFC expo this weekend, it's a rare opportunity to take a stake in the "game outside the game" in a betting-friendly place like Las Vegas. Betting on fighting takes the visceral experience of watching human combatants and multiplies it by giving you a vested interest in the outcome. It's prizefighting, and now you've got your own prize on the line.
With so many big names stacking the UFC cards this weekend, and so many dedicated fans in Las Vegas to see them, don't be surprised to see more volatility than usual in the betting lines. Urijah Faber and Ronda Rousey are currently vying to become the biggest odds favorites in UFC history, depending on how the lines settle on Saturday. And lurking underneath the volatility and the championship-caliber media blitz are six fighters we can look at in more detail to see where the value lies. There's also an international theme in parallel with the current World Cup festivities, with the UFC calling it "International Fight Week." In each of the top three matchups an American will be facing a foreign opponent, but only two favorites will have the home-cage advantage.
In prior analyses we've considered the Total Effectiveness of fighters, and even very specific performance metrics like Knockdown Power. However, in this weekend's matchups grappling is likely to be a factor that determines the outcomes, and for that reason we begin our breakdown with the submission success rates of the fighters in question.
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<CITE>Reed Kuhn, ESPN.com</CITE>
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<CENTER>[h=3]No. 12 Stefan Struve (minus-210) vs. Matt Mitrione (plus-160)*[/h]</CENTER>
Dutch kickboxer Struve was nearly forced into retirement due to the discovery of a congenital heart defect. Treatment and monitoring have finally given the UFC veteran a second lease on his fighting career, but only after a terrible 2013. He sat out of competition for well over a year, during which time he needed to heal a broken jaw in addition to treating his heart, as well as overcome personal losses in his family. Knowing how motivated Struve will be is hard to gauge, given the always-upbeat fighter interviews, but the first few minutes of the fight will reveal whether or not cage rust is an issue. That's because this fight could be over in the blink of an eye.
<CITE>Reed Kuhn, ESPN.com</CITE>
Despite Struve's kickboxing pedigree and a reach that is the second longest in the UFC (behind Jon Jones' 84.5 inches), the standup striking matchup could favor Mitrione due to his power and Struve's historically loose defense. Struve's willingness to take a punch has turned him into a virtual lock for a crowd-pleasing fight, but that's not always a good thing. Against Mitrione, Struve must show that he has learned from his fight against Mark Hunt (and others) and can maintain a tighter defense while employing his own precise attacks. If his conditioning has improved thanks to his heart treatment, that will go a long way in solving his biggest weakness.
However, as I alluded to earlier, grappling could be the key to how this fight ends. Should this fight go to the mat, Struve will have a huge advantage with his jiu-jitsu. Amazingly, through Mitrione's entire professional MMA career (10 fights and almost 70 minutes of cage time), he has yet to attempt a single takedown. And he certainly won't start here. Mitrione will be visibly apprehensive of Struve takedowns knowing that the Dutchman has submitted more than his share of opponents, and there's no way Mitrione will want to fight in Struve's guard and risk a triangle choke. The grappling threat could also hamper Mitrione's striking offense, giving Struve an extra window of opportunity to get close, work a trip against the fence, and then demonstrate some of the best grappling you'll ever see from a seven-footer.
Insider recommends: Assuming Struve can avoid the early bombs that fly his way, he should find a way to get this to the ground for a submission. The current odds make Struve a likely winner, and I agree with that. The over/under of 1.5 rounds is a tighter-than-usual limit, but given the mixture of knockdown power and also the submission mismatch, and early finish should be expected. Closer to fight time, look for a better price on the submission prop for Struve, or consider an upset TKO by Mitrione if the value goes above plus-300.
[h=3](c) Ronda Rousey (minus-1750) vs. No. 2 Alexis Davis (plus-850)[/h]
The co-main event is currently on pace to be the steepest odds in UFC history, with a market expectation of 95 percent that Rousey will successfully defend her title again. The undefeated champion is no stranger to being a monster favorite, and in fact she is the second-highest average betting favorite in UFC history behind Daniel Cormier (though she might surpass him Saturday). Apparently her last performance -- using her new striking moves -- managed to make her even more of a sure thing. Rousey is simply dangerous everywhere, and at all times. Her judo allows her to flip the playing field in the blink of an eye and a sudden twist of the hips.
<CITE>Reed Kuhn, ESPN.com</CITE>
Meanwhile, Davis has the best jiu-jitsu credentials of any of Rousey's prior opponents, and she has never been submitted in her career. But her résumé isn't nearly as impressive as Rousey's, as Davis has faltered on occasion to more experienced opponents and has yet to finish a UFC fight.
On their feet, it's interesting to see how similar their stats are. Neither fighter came from a striking base, and they have generally eaten more strikes than they've landed themselves. Their defense is porous, and their accuracy is just average. But Rousey's stat line is clearly on the up, and we saw her earn one of the only knockdowns in women's UFC history in her last title defense. It's in the clinch where Rousey will be most dangerous, where she can use her nasty close-range Muay Thai strikes, or her famed judo takedowns. Either way, she'll control the action and Davis will mostly need to play defense. That's not a good plan for an MMA fight.
Insider recommends: With the odds at near-ridiculous prices, playing Rousey straight up is way too expensive, as a fluke injury or errant elbow could change the outcome of the fight and isn't worth the miniscule return. The odds might climb even higher as more fans throw her into parlays as a small but high-probability value booster. That's definitely OK for the casual bettor, but for a singular play consider the totals or props.
It's highly likely that eventually Rousey will finish the fight, and taking her for an "inside the distance" play is really the best bet here. However, it's harder to play the over/under of 2.5 rounds because the price is again fairly steep on the most likely outcome. The under, at last count, is running minus-400, which is still tempting given that all of Rousey's prior fights have ended in that time. Davis will definitely have good submission defense, and should they stand and trade at first (as Rousey did in her last two fights), the chance of the one-punch knockout is simply not as likely in the women's bantamweight division. That all means this could take longer than one round. The under is likely, but too tricky for a confident play, so consider props of "fight begins the second round," or simply Rousey "inside the distance" as providing slightly better value than the mainstream odds.
[h=3](c) Chris Weidman (minus-200) vs. No. 3 Lyoto Machida (plus-170)[/h]
With friend and training partner Anderson Silva no longer reigning supreme over the middleweight division, Machida has finally come down to his most appropriate weight class. That means a refreshing new face in the Octagon competing for the title, and the closest odds of the top three fights of the night.
<CITE>Reed Kuhn, ESPN.com</CITE>
The stats reveal why Machida is a threat. His striking is among the most dangerous in UFC history, with the southpaw having scored the fourth-most knockdowns of any UFC fighter, and with elite-level striking accuracy and defense. For a long time, Machida was a riddle in the UFC, one that few fighters could handle facing, let alone remain standing by bout's end.
However, Weidman has a few secret weapons to deal with Machida's striking, and his grappling is a big one. Having never been taken down in his UFC career, Weidman has been dominant on the mat, adding frequent submission attempts to his ground game. But before the fight gets there, it's important to note that Weidman is much younger than Machida, and yet to be knocked out, or even knocked down. That clean record for Weidman's brain is an important factor in projecting his ability to withstand the inevitable strikes from Machida that will slip through as Weidman closes range. Having prepared to face Silva twice already (and gotten two wins out of it), Weidman has the optimal preparation and experience to face another elusive and dangerous striker like Machida. The first moments will likely be slow and tentative, but with the threat of his own powerful hands along with his wrestling, one way or another, Weidman should gain the upper hand.
Insider recommends: Unlike several other champions, Weidman has been continuously underrated; that is, perhaps, until now. While he made the value underdog pick of the year in his second fight with Anderson Silva, he'll be a favorite for the first time in a title fight against arguably a more dangerous and resilient opponent.
That said, I do expect Weidman to win here, but if the line creeps much higher on American patriotism over the weekend, I'd back off. The over/under is refreshingly set at 4.5 rounds, with the under only minus-130. That's practically a coin flip that this fight ends early, and with all that middleweight power and skill in the cage, it's hard to imagine it taking that long. Machida's best route to an upset is his devastating knockout potential, while Weidman's arsenal (not to mention Machida's chin) is also capable of ending the fight. One way or another, this should end somewhere in the middle of the fight, and likely we'll see Weidman cement his legacy after getting the better of the fight on the ground. Those who like to hedge should see whether the Machida KO prop goes over plus-400 closer to fight time, as you can never count out some of the most dangerous hands in the sport.
[h=3]Closing lines[/h]
When Friday's Independence Day fireworks are finished, rejoice in the fact that there are still more to come live from Las Vegas this weekend. The final matchups at UFC 175 all promise some highlight-reel finishing potential, and the theme of the evening may just come down to each fighter's submission game. And that's only if someone doesn't get knocked out first! If you're in Vegas, look for me at the Expo handing out some more statistical treats, and to everyone else have a happy and safe Fourth of July weekend.
*In money-line odds presented here, favorites are negative values. For example, a money line of minus-300 for a favorite means you must risk $300 to win $100. Underdogs are positive values. For example, a money line of plus-250 means you win $250 by risking just $100. Prop bets follow the same rules. The analysis offered here does not include unit-based bet recommendations.
