Why Andrew Luck is already a top-5 QB
<CITE class=byline>By Mike Sando | ESPN Insider
</CITE>
In late 2012, when Russell Wilson was emerging as a candidate for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, I put together a chart comparing him to Andrew Luck in games against seven common opponents. Wilson had fared better by wide margins in key statistical categories. Wilson had a 16-1 ratio of touchdown passes to interceptions, compared to 13-12 for Luck. Wilson averaged an additional yard per pass attempt, had a higher passer rating (115.6 to 74.9) and was better in Total QBR as well.
But if you had spoken with NFL coaches and personnel people throughout the league at that time, I feel confident saying zero of them would have traded Luck for Wilson. When I recently asked 26 coaches and personnel people to grade all 32 starting quarterbacks on a 1-5 scale for my QB Tiers project, Luck was the only QB to join Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in the first tier.
This love for Luck has baffled many of the NFL fans I interact with on various social platforms. They see Luck's obvious talent, but they see comparable production from other QBs. They've also seen Luck suffer eight interceptions in three playoff games. They have a hard time understanding how NFL insiders could consider Luck to be a top-five quarterback at this early stage.
Why so much love for Luck? Let's take a look.
What's not to like?
With Luck, there's really nothing personnel evaluators or coaches would want to change about him -- physically, mentally or in terms of his demeanor. That separates Luck from every other QB in the league.<!--offer--> Evaluators and coaches wish the other Tier 1 QBs were younger. They wish Wilson were taller. They aren't sure whether Colin Kaepernick will develop more than a fastball, or how well he and others would function in different offenses. They wish Cam Newton and Joe Flacco were more natural leaders and better readers of defenses. They wish Matthew Stafford were more mechanically sound, that Tony Romo were more disciplined and that Jay Cutler were more consistent. Some think it has been shown that Matt Ryan, for all his obvious appeal, cannot carry a team the way a Tier 1 QB does.
No one in the league seems to have any questions about Luck. One coach called him Drew Brees with height and speed.
"I love Philip Rivers," a coach said, "but he cannot do as many things as Luck. He cannot run. He cannot take a team with bad rushing and bad defense and still win 11 like Luck did."
My feel is that Luck landed in the first tier on so many ballots mainly because voters loved everything about him coming out of Stanford, and then Luck validated their feelings when he instantly transformed a horrible Indianapolis Colts team into a playoff contender without a good defense or running game to help him out much. Is that enough for Tier 1 status? For some, it was, but there are multiple perspectives on what a Tier 1 QB should be.
Criteria for Tier 1 QBs
I did not go into this project asking coaches and personnel people to rate QBs by arm strength, pocket presence or any of the other criteria frequently associated with the position. The thinking was that people in the league would know in their minds what a Tier 1 QB would be. I was more interested in learning from them than forcing them into a template. As I collected votes, I asked contributors what separated the very best from the rest. I've listed below the attributes mentioned most frequently in an effort to determine whether Luck belongs in the first tier at this early stage.
Consistency: One GM described it as being the difference for his team week after week, even when the QB isn't having his best day overall.
Carrying a heavy burden: Tier 1 QBs can consistently carry their teams without great support from their defenses or running games. The Colts have gone 22-10 in two seasons with Luck despite ranking among the bottom five in defensive expected points added and among the bottom 10 in total yards and yards per carry by running backs.
"You cannot hide Luck because no other place was able to pick up the slack and carry the load," an offensive coach said.
Adaptability: Tier 1 QBs remain among the very best, even when the supporting cast changes around them. They make their teammates better. Last season, Luck's numbers fell off after receiver Reggie Wayne suffered a season-ending knee injury. Overall, Luck had 10 TDs with three INTs and a 73.6 QBR score when Wayne was on the field. He had a 13-6 TD-INT ratio and 50.7 QBR score without Wayne.
Born leader: Tier 1 QBs walk into their teams' buildings and everyone knows from day one they're the leader. Luck has by all accounts succeeded on this front.
"He is the right guy and he studies and there's never a sideways comment out of his mouth," one evaluator said. "Then he has the 'aww, shucks' demeanor, which endears him to everybody."
Pre-snap mastery: Tier 1 QBs are cerebral. They can sniff out defenses before the snap and read coverages expertly, making them tougher to fool. No one would place Luck on the level of the other Tier 1 QBs in this area, but there aren't any questions about his ability to succeed.
Running the show: While QBs often change plays, the best ones do so with greater autonomy. They draw from a larger menu. Their head coaches will not pull in the reins after a couple of decisions turn out poorly. One former GM said a Tier 1 QB typically "could coach himself and put together a game plan that would be better than the coaches', and the players believe it." Is that Luck? Not yet.
Expanding the playbook: Some QBs limit options for their coaches by forcing them to play the game a certain way. Tier 1 QBs could excel in a wide range of schemes. No one I spoke with saw any limitations for Luck. They saw only possibilities. Luck has played in two offensive systems since entering the NFL.
Pocket passing: The most respected QBs can beat opponents from a spot in the pocket. Some also can flee the pocket to create opportunities, but if they're overly dependent on these tactics, they won't command the ultimate respect. Luck ranked 22nd in Total QBR from inside the pocket last season. He was 15th as a rookie. Manning, Kaepernick, Brees, Rodgers and Brady comprised the top five, with Wilson right behind them.
Closing thoughts
The votes from these 26 league insiders affirm what NFL people consider a truism: Four teams have great quarterbacks requiring less help, and everyone else is to some degree rigging the system to help their QBs succeed. These insiders also think Luck is in the process of joining those four.
Voters differentiated between Luck and the four future Hall of Famers ahead of him within Tier 1. Unlike those legends, Luck was not a near-unanimous choice for the top tier. Fourteen of the 26 coaches and personnel people gave Luck first-tier grades. Eleven placed him in the second tier. One placed him in Tier 3. But everyone agreed he was on his way to the top tier.
Personnel people were twice as likely as coaches to give Luck a first-tier grade. Did they overvalue Luck's potential based on all the things they loved about him entering the 2012 draft? It's possible, but many of those same evaluators liked Robert Griffin III entering the same draft. Griffin landed deep into the third tier on this survey, and did not receive a single Tier 1 vote. People have questions not only about his durability but also his leadership style and ability to transcend systems.
Ten of 15 personnel people and four of 11 coaches placed Luck in the first tier. Right or wrong, the feeling that Luck had already achieved -- or will soon achieve -- Tier 1 status was stronger than it was for any of the QBs in the second tier or below.
<CITE class=byline>By Mike Sando | ESPN Insider
</CITE>
In late 2012, when Russell Wilson was emerging as a candidate for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, I put together a chart comparing him to Andrew Luck in games against seven common opponents. Wilson had fared better by wide margins in key statistical categories. Wilson had a 16-1 ratio of touchdown passes to interceptions, compared to 13-12 for Luck. Wilson averaged an additional yard per pass attempt, had a higher passer rating (115.6 to 74.9) and was better in Total QBR as well.
But if you had spoken with NFL coaches and personnel people throughout the league at that time, I feel confident saying zero of them would have traded Luck for Wilson. When I recently asked 26 coaches and personnel people to grade all 32 starting quarterbacks on a 1-5 scale for my QB Tiers project, Luck was the only QB to join Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in the first tier.
This love for Luck has baffled many of the NFL fans I interact with on various social platforms. They see Luck's obvious talent, but they see comparable production from other QBs. They've also seen Luck suffer eight interceptions in three playoff games. They have a hard time understanding how NFL insiders could consider Luck to be a top-five quarterback at this early stage.
Why so much love for Luck? Let's take a look.
What's not to like?
With Luck, there's really nothing personnel evaluators or coaches would want to change about him -- physically, mentally or in terms of his demeanor. That separates Luck from every other QB in the league.<!--offer--> Evaluators and coaches wish the other Tier 1 QBs were younger. They wish Wilson were taller. They aren't sure whether Colin Kaepernick will develop more than a fastball, or how well he and others would function in different offenses. They wish Cam Newton and Joe Flacco were more natural leaders and better readers of defenses. They wish Matthew Stafford were more mechanically sound, that Tony Romo were more disciplined and that Jay Cutler were more consistent. Some think it has been shown that Matt Ryan, for all his obvious appeal, cannot carry a team the way a Tier 1 QB does.
No one in the league seems to have any questions about Luck. One coach called him Drew Brees with height and speed.
"I love Philip Rivers," a coach said, "but he cannot do as many things as Luck. He cannot run. He cannot take a team with bad rushing and bad defense and still win 11 like Luck did."
My feel is that Luck landed in the first tier on so many ballots mainly because voters loved everything about him coming out of Stanford, and then Luck validated their feelings when he instantly transformed a horrible Indianapolis Colts team into a playoff contender without a good defense or running game to help him out much. Is that enough for Tier 1 status? For some, it was, but there are multiple perspectives on what a Tier 1 QB should be.
Criteria for Tier 1 QBs
I did not go into this project asking coaches and personnel people to rate QBs by arm strength, pocket presence or any of the other criteria frequently associated with the position. The thinking was that people in the league would know in their minds what a Tier 1 QB would be. I was more interested in learning from them than forcing them into a template. As I collected votes, I asked contributors what separated the very best from the rest. I've listed below the attributes mentioned most frequently in an effort to determine whether Luck belongs in the first tier at this early stage.
Consistency: One GM described it as being the difference for his team week after week, even when the QB isn't having his best day overall.
Carrying a heavy burden: Tier 1 QBs can consistently carry their teams without great support from their defenses or running games. The Colts have gone 22-10 in two seasons with Luck despite ranking among the bottom five in defensive expected points added and among the bottom 10 in total yards and yards per carry by running backs.
"You cannot hide Luck because no other place was able to pick up the slack and carry the load," an offensive coach said.
Adaptability: Tier 1 QBs remain among the very best, even when the supporting cast changes around them. They make their teammates better. Last season, Luck's numbers fell off after receiver Reggie Wayne suffered a season-ending knee injury. Overall, Luck had 10 TDs with three INTs and a 73.6 QBR score when Wayne was on the field. He had a 13-6 TD-INT ratio and 50.7 QBR score without Wayne.
Born leader: Tier 1 QBs walk into their teams' buildings and everyone knows from day one they're the leader. Luck has by all accounts succeeded on this front.
"He is the right guy and he studies and there's never a sideways comment out of his mouth," one evaluator said. "Then he has the 'aww, shucks' demeanor, which endears him to everybody."
Pre-snap mastery: Tier 1 QBs are cerebral. They can sniff out defenses before the snap and read coverages expertly, making them tougher to fool. No one would place Luck on the level of the other Tier 1 QBs in this area, but there aren't any questions about his ability to succeed.
Running the show: While QBs often change plays, the best ones do so with greater autonomy. They draw from a larger menu. Their head coaches will not pull in the reins after a couple of decisions turn out poorly. One former GM said a Tier 1 QB typically "could coach himself and put together a game plan that would be better than the coaches', and the players believe it." Is that Luck? Not yet.
Expanding the playbook: Some QBs limit options for their coaches by forcing them to play the game a certain way. Tier 1 QBs could excel in a wide range of schemes. No one I spoke with saw any limitations for Luck. They saw only possibilities. Luck has played in two offensive systems since entering the NFL.
Pocket passing: The most respected QBs can beat opponents from a spot in the pocket. Some also can flee the pocket to create opportunities, but if they're overly dependent on these tactics, they won't command the ultimate respect. Luck ranked 22nd in Total QBR from inside the pocket last season. He was 15th as a rookie. Manning, Kaepernick, Brees, Rodgers and Brady comprised the top five, with Wilson right behind them.
Closing thoughts
The votes from these 26 league insiders affirm what NFL people consider a truism: Four teams have great quarterbacks requiring less help, and everyone else is to some degree rigging the system to help their QBs succeed. These insiders also think Luck is in the process of joining those four.
Voters differentiated between Luck and the four future Hall of Famers ahead of him within Tier 1. Unlike those legends, Luck was not a near-unanimous choice for the top tier. Fourteen of the 26 coaches and personnel people gave Luck first-tier grades. Eleven placed him in the second tier. One placed him in Tier 3. But everyone agreed he was on his way to the top tier.
Personnel people were twice as likely as coaches to give Luck a first-tier grade. Did they overvalue Luck's potential based on all the things they loved about him entering the 2012 draft? It's possible, but many of those same evaluators liked Robert Griffin III entering the same draft. Griffin landed deep into the third tier on this survey, and did not receive a single Tier 1 vote. People have questions not only about his durability but also his leadership style and ability to transcend systems.
Ten of 15 personnel people and four of 11 coaches placed Luck in the first tier. Right or wrong, the feeling that Luck had already achieved -- or will soon achieve -- Tier 1 status was stronger than it was for any of the QBs in the second tier or below.
