STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JULY 8th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 7/8/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
•Rays, Royals Love The Over: When the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals meet, you can expect runs to come in bunches. In the last 11 matchups between the two clubs, the Over is 8-2-1. They'll face off again at Tropicana Field Tuesday evening on Sun Sports in Tampa Bay. BetOnline.com currently lists the Royals as slight -115 road favorites with an Over/Under of 7.5.
•Under Sizzling With Braves On The Road: In the Atlanta Braves' last nine road games through Monday, the Under is a red-hot 8-1. Atlanta renews acquaintances with the New York Mets at Citi Field (7:10 PM EST) Tuesday night. The Braves are presently a -139 favorite with a total of seven, per BetOnline.com.
•Cueto, Wood Trending Opposite Ways: When the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs renew acquaintances in the first game of a double header (1:10 PM EST) Tuesday afternoon, there are a few pitching trends that need your attention. Travis Wood will be on the mound for the Cubs while Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Reds. In Cueto's last six starts against the Cubbies, the Reds are 5-1. In Woods' last seven outings against the Reds, the Cubs are 1-6. BetOnline.com currently lists the Reds as heavy -192 favorites with a total of seven.
•Nuno To Make D-Backs Debut Tuesday: Newly acquired left-handing pitcher Vidal Nuno will make his first start for the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Miami Marlins at Chase Field at 9:40 PM EST Tuesday. In 14 starts this season with the New York Yankees, the second-year pitcher is 2-5 with a 5.42 ERA. BetOnline.com currently has the Diamondbacks as slight -107 favorites with a total of 9.5.
•Indians Acquire OF Dickerson: The Cleveland Indians acquired outfielder Chris Dickerson from the Pittsburgh Pirates for a player to be named later or cash considerations, the team announced Monday. The Indians selected his contract from the Triple-A Columbus roster and also designated catcher George Kottaras for assignment. Dickerson has spent parts of each of the last three seasons with the New York Yankees (2011-12) and Baltimore Orioles (2013).
Dickerson, 32, has appeared in 314 major league games over six seasons from 2008-13 with four different teams since debuting with the Cincinnati Reds in 2008. He was the Reds' 16th-round pick in 2003 out of Nevada-Reno. Dickerson signed with the Pirates organization in January and has spent the entire season to date with Indianapolis, hitting .309 (73-for-236) with seven home runs and 30 RBIs and in 65 games. Dickerson will be in uniform Monday night when the Indians take on the Yankees.
•Scott Carroll Holds Red Sox To One Hit In Win Monday: White Sox pitcher Scott Carroll earned a win Monday, giving up just one hit and two walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings and striking out five in his team's 4-0 victory over the Red Sox. Carroll (3-5) delivered a season-high in strikeouts while tossing at least six scoreless innings for the second time this season. The only hit he allowed Monday was a leadoff single in the third inning, and his two walks came in the sixth and seventh innings. Carroll owns a 4.52 ERA and 31:23 K:BB ratio in 63 2/3 innings. He's scheduled to face the Indians Saturday.
•Jered Weaver Exits Start With Lower Back Tightness: Angels pitcher Jered Weaver was removed from Monday's game against the Blue Jays due to lower back tightness, the team announced. Weaver threw one warmup pitch before the third inning and didn't throw another before exiting. He had turned in two perfect innings, striking out one and throwing just 24 pitches. Weaver owns a 3.50 ERA and 93:33 K:BB ratio in 118 1/3 innings. He's tentatively scheduled to pitch Saturday against the Rangers, but that'll depend on the status of his back.
•Adam Wainwright Extends Scoreless Streak To 14 2/3 Innings In No-Decision: Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright remained dominant Monday night against the Pirates, but was unable to factor into the decision. The right-hander yielded seven hits and three walks while striking out five over seven scoreless innings of a 2-0 victory. Wainwright has not allowed a run over his last 14 2/3 innings of work. He owns a 1.79 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP over 18 starts (131 innings). He will make his next start Saturday at Milwaukee.
•Bronson Arroyo Will Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Diamondbacks pitcher Bronson Arroyo informed reporters Monday that he will undergo Tommy John surgery, the team announced. Arroyo underwent an MRI last month, which showed that his UCL had completely come off the bone. The right-hander posted a 4.08 ERA and 47:19 K:BB ratio in 86 innings before landing on the disabled list for the first time in his 14-year career.
Who's Hot - AL Edition
The Oakland Athletics have been receiving all the buzz in the American League and deservingly so but Mike Trout and the Los Angeles have been raking the ball as well. StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst Larry Hertner tells us "Who's Hot" on the diamond.
The 2014 All-Star Game is just around the corner, and there are some teams which are clearly All-Star teams for Major League Baseball betting fans in our eyes. Check out the clubs who have been increasing your bankrolls all year long in the American League.
•Oakland Athletics (56-33, +$1,453) – The A's probably had one of the best teams in baseball before they made the blockbuster move of the trading season, but now that they have RHP Jason Hammel and RHP Jeff Samardzija, they certainly have an elite team which can win the AL West and make a serious play at the World Series. Samardzija was a winner in his first start with his new team to get the club up to 28-15 at home and 22-games above .500 for the season, and he is going to really look for a big time turnaround with his won/loss record after pitching so well and getting so little help with the Chicago Cubs.
Remember too, that this is the only team in baseball averaging five runs per game to boot. For a team which plays in a ballpark that is considered one of the most pitching-friendly in the game, posting 92 home runs, seventh best in the league, is no mistake. These A's are for real.
•Baltimore Orioles (49-40, +$1,207) – We still have a hard time imagining that the Orioles have the best team in the American League East right now. They just took four straight from the Texas Rangers and two out of three at Fenway Park from the Boston Red Sox, and that has propelled them to one of the best money marks in the game.
However, it's interesting to note that all of Baltimore's damage has come away from Camden Yards this year. The Orioles have the best road mark for bettors in the American League with a 25-19 record. It's playing on the road that has consistently gotten the Orioles in trouble in the rough and tumble AL East over the course of the last few seasons, but with more than half of this season gone, that doesn't seem to be an issue any longer.
The question? Does Baltimore really have the goods to go after one of the big time pitchers who could be on the trading block in the next few weeks? That could make all the difference in the world to a team with a real lack of quality at the front of the rotation.
•Los Angeles Angels (52-36, +$1049) – The Athletics had to be looking in their rearview mirrors when they pulled the trigger on the Samardzija deal, as they know that the Halos are just 3.5-games back as we near the All-Star Break.
Whereas Baltimore has been doing it on the road, the Halos have been doing it at home. They are 30-14 at the Big A this year, and what's amazing is the fact that three of those games have been lost because of blown saves. The Angels are quietly remaking their shoddy bullpen, and the move to bring in RHP Jason Grilli might end up being one of the most unheralded, yet important trades of the season. We know that LA can hit the ball. We just don't know if it can close out games when it is ahead. If not for this pen, the Angels would have the best team in baseball.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
National League
•Cubs-Reds - 1:10 PM
--Wood is 1-1, 5.40 in his last three starts.
--Cueto is 3-1, 2.55 in his last five starts.
--33-year old rookie Wada is making first MLB start; he was 9-5, 2.66 in his 16 AAA starts this year.
--Holmberg allowed three runs in 3.2 IP in his only MLB start LY; he was 0-4, 5.28 in 10 AAA starts this year.
--Cubs are 0-3 since Samardzija trade, scoring four runs.
--Cincinnati won five of its last six home games.
--Six of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under total.
•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Teheran is 2-1, 2.17 in his last four starts.
--De Grom is 1-1, 2.41 in his last three starts.
--Braves won nine of their last eleven games.
--Mets lost eight of their last twelve games.
--Four of last five de Grom starts stayed under.
•Phillies-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Kendrick is 0-2, 4.71 in his last three starts.
--Peralta is 5-0, 4.74 in his last six starts.
--Philly lost ten of its last thirteen games.
--Milwaukee lost six of its last seven games.
--Six of last seven Peralta starts went over total.
•Pirates-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Worley is 2-1, 2.28 in four starts for Pittsburgh.
--Martinez is 2-0, 2.95 in four starts (only 18.1 IP).
--Pirates won 12 of their last 16 games.
--St Louis is 6-7 in its last thirteen games.
--Under is 7-2-1 in Cardinals' last ten home games.
•Padres-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Ross is 1-2, 1.96 in his last three starts.
--Morales is 0-3, 7.54 in his last seven starts.
--Padres won six of their last eight games.
--Colorado lost 18 of its last 21 games.
--Last seven Ross starts stayed under the total.
•Marlins-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Hand is 0-1, 8.74 in three starts this season.
--Nuno was 1-3, 7.65 in his last four starts with Bronx.
--Miami is 12-8 in its last twenty road games.
--Diamondbacks lost five of their last eight games.
--Eight of last eleven Arizona games stayed under total.
American League
•Yankees-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Tanaka is 6-2, 2.30 in his last eight starts.
--Bauer is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts.
--New York won five of their last six road games.
--Indians won four of their last six games.
--Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Cleveland games.
•White Sox-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Danks is 4-1, 3.40 in his last six starts.
--Workman is 0-2, 6.35 in his last three starts.
--White Sox won four of their last five games.
--Red Sox lost 12 of their last 17 games.
--15 of last 19 games at Fenway Park stayed under.
•Royals-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Vargas is 4-1, 2.80 in his last eight starts.
--Hellickson is making first '14 start; he is 39-31, 3.70 in 95 career starts.
--Royals won 13 of their last 16 road games.
--Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 13 games.
--Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Tampa Bay games.
•Astros-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Peacock is 0-1, 3.68 in his last four starts.
--Irwin is making first MLB start; he was 4-1, 2.01 in his last six AAA starts.
--Houston lost 15 of its last 20 games.
--Rangers lost eight of their last nine games.
--Seven of last nine Peacock starts stayed under.
•Blue Jays-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Dickey is 0-4, 5.08 in his last four starts.
--Skaggs is 0-3, 5.26 in his last four starts.
--Blue Jays lost ten of their last eleven road games.
--Angels won 13 of their last 16 games; they've won 11 in row at home.
--Eleven of last twelve Toronto games stayed under.
•Twins-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Hughes is 1-3, 6.33 in his last four starts.
--Young is 3-0, 1.44 in his last four starts.
--Minnesota lost six of its last seven games.
--Mariners won eight of their last ten games.
--Eight of last nine Young starts stayed under.
Interleague
•Orioles-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Norris is 4-0, 2.55 in his last four starts.
--Fister is 7-2, 2.88 in his last ten starts.
--Orioles won seven of their last eight games.
--Washington won seven of its last nine games.
--Nine of last twelve Washington games went over.
•Dodgers-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Ryu is 2-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
--Verlander is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts.
--Dodgers won seven of their last nine road games.
--Tigers lost their last three games, scoring eight runs.
--Under is 4-1-1 in last six Ryu starts; nine of last ten Verlander starts went over the total.
•Giants-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Bumgarner is 1-3, 4.64 in his last five starts.
--Gray is 2-0, 3.79 in his last three starts.
--Giants won four of their last six road games.
--Oakland won ten of its last eleven home games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Bumgarner starts.
•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Cin-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Winters games; underdogs won five of last seven Fletcher games.
-- Atl-NY-- Six of nine Everitt games went over the total.
-- Phil-Mil-- Underdogs won five of last seven Hoberg games.
-- Pitt-StL-- Eight of last ten West games went over total.
-- SD-Col-- Underdogs won five of last nine Reynolds games.
-- Mia-Az-- 12 of last 17 Davidson games stayed under.
-- NY-Clev-- Four of last five Gonzalez games stayed under.
-- Chi-Bos-- Four of six Joyce games went over the total.
-- KC-TB-- Under is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Nelson games.
-- Hst-Tex-- Five of last six Carapazza games stayed under; four of the six had a 1-0 final score.
-- Tor-LA-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Rackley games.
-- Min-Sea-- Last seven Danley games stayed under.
-- Blt-Wsh-- Eight of last eleven Iassogna games stayed under.
-- SF-A's-- Favorites won eight of last ten Hernandez games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Justin Verlander of the Tigers is 18-4 home in his career team starts during the month of July. While Verlander has fallen off this season after leading baseball in victories over past eight years, Detroit hope his interleague dominance can continue unabated. The right-hander looks to extend his unbeaten run against National League teams to 14 straight starts Tuesday night when Detroit hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•OAKLAND is 18-3 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in home games versus National League teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was OAKLAND 5.1, OPPONENT 2.6.
•LA ANGELS are 13-0 UNDER (+13.1 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.5, OPPONENT 2.6.
•MINNESOTA is 1-14 (-15.8 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.8, OPPONENT 6.9.
•TRAVIS WOOD is 8-0 (+10.2 Units) against the money line versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.
The average score was WOOD 7.7, OPPONENT 3.6.
•CHRIS YOUNG is 10-1 UNDER (+9.2 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season.
The average score was YOUNG 3.1, OPPONENT 2.5.
•JOHN DANKS is 0-10 (-12.7 Units) against the run line versus terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DANKS 2.8, OPPONENT 5.4.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (BOSTON) - team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start.
(68-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.4%, +47.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +114
The average score in these games was: Team 4.6, Opponent 3.1 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-20, +27.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (106-74, +44.5 units).
•Play On - Any team against a 1.5 run line (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor National League hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an excellent American League starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20), ice cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games.
(39-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.5%, +28.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (33-18 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1, money line price: +103
The average score in these games was: Team 3.8, Opponent 3.5 (Average run differential = +0.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 28 (54.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +5.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5, +14.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-23, +27.4 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BOSTON) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) - American League, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(89-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +46.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 9.1, Money Line=-101.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 5.5 (Total runs scored = 10.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 73 (52.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (16-7, +9.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (53-27, +25.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (228-210, +11 units).
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w-thumbs!^
