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[h=2]WORLD CUP 2014[/h]

• Venue: Arena de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo
• Date: Wednesday, 9 July
• Kick-off:21:00 BST

[h=2]TEAM NEWS[/h]Netherlands striker Robin van Persie may miss the World Cup semi-final after struggling with a stomach complaint.
But midfielder Nigel de Jong could feature after recovering from a groin injury, which was expected to rule him out for the rest of the tournament.
Argentina midfielder Angel Di Maria is out because of a thigh injury but may return in his country's final match.
Striker Sergio Aguero is available after a thigh problem and left-back Marcos Rojo will return after a ban.
Dutch injury doubts Ron Vlaar and Leroy Fer took part in full training on Tuesday, but Van Persie trained away from his team-mates.
However, manager Louis van Gaal said the Manchester United striker would only play if he was completely fit.


"Robin van Persie has an intestinal problem and I didn't want to take a risk," said Van Gaal. "He is a very important player for us.
"In principle, my captains always play, but only if they're 100%."
AC Milan's De Jong has not played since tearing a groin muscle during his side's 2-1 victory over Mexico in the last 16 on 29 June.
He was expected to be out for up to four weeks, but has returned to training.
"If his reaction is good and he can play, then the miracle can come true," added Van Gaal.
[h=2]MATCH PREVIEW[/h]There is a growing feeling that this could be Argentina's World Cup. Despite not reaching the peak of their powers, they are in their first World Cup semi-final since 1990, and in Lionel Messi they have a player on a personal mission to rubber stamp his place in the pantheon of greats.
Belgium coach Marc Wilmots dismissed them as "ordinary" after their quarter-final match, and while there is no doubt this side is not as good as their 1986 counterparts, no team with Messi in it can ever be ordinary.
His first-half performance against the Belgians was sublime and although he didn't get a goal or the man-of-the-match award, his overall contribution and unwavering commitment to the team was such that it showed how much winning this tournament means to him.
"He was our water in the desert," said Argentina coach Alejandro Sabella. "When the terrain was dry, he, once again, gave us a chance to breathe fresh air."



The Argentine media calculated that it has been 8,771 days since they last played in a World Cup semi-final. This match falls on 9 July, which just so happens to be Independence Day in Argentina, and excitement back home will be at fever pitch.
Further inspiration to win has been provided by the sad passing of legendary Argentina-born forward Alfredo Di Stefano this week.
Their previous World Cup encounters with the Netherlands have provided some epic moments in the tournament's history that will hopefully be repeated in Sao Paulo.
Their first meeting in 1974 saw the Dutch win 4-0 with an astonishing display of 'total football', before Argentina got revenge in thrilling style in the final on home soil four years later. Dennis Bergkamp provided another magic moment with his memorable control and finish for the Oranje in 1998, before their last meeting lacked a similar spark - a dull 0-0 draw in 2006.
Van Gaal seems to be putting on a personal showcase of his tactical genius at this World Cup that must have Manchester United fans rubbing their hands with glee.
His game-changing decisions have been the difference as they have struggled to match their stunning start to the tournament with that incredible win over Spain.
Few would have predicted they would be one game away from reaching a second successive final, but Van Gaal's unorthodox and inspired decision to bring on goalkeeper Tim Krul for the penalty shootout with Costa Rica increased his reputation as football's master tactician. "He is proving it in this tournament and he has shown what tactical qualities he has," said an admiring and grateful Krul.
[h=2]MATCH FACTS[/h]Head-to-head

• Argentina's victory over the Netherlands in the 1978 final is the only time they have beaten the Dutch in eight meetings in all competitions (D3, L4).
• They haven't met for eight years since a 0-0 draw at the 2006 World Cup.
• Lionel Messi (29), Arjen Robben and Angel Di María (both 25) are the players with most completed dribbles in this tournament.

Argentina

• This is Argentina's first World Cup semi-final since 1990, when they went on to lose to Germany in the final.
• They have never lost a World Cup semi-final, winning the previous four.
• Each of Argentina's five wins at this tournament have come by a single goal margin.
• They are yet to be behind once in their five matches so far.
• Not including penalty shootouts, they have lost just one of their last 16 World Cup matches (W12, D3).
• Lionel Messi has created 19 goalscoring chances in this World Cup, the most of any player.
• Argentina have scored with 11% of their shots from outside the box, the best success rate of any side at this World Cup.
• This is the first time Argentina and Brazil have made the semi-final stage at the same tournament.
• Gonzalo Higuain ended a goal drought of 528 minutes without a goal for Argentina when he scored the winner against Belgium. He now has as many World Cup goals as Lionel Messi, despite having played four games less.

Netherlands

• This is the Netherlands' third semi-final appearance in their last four World Cup finals.
• Netherlands have lost just two of their 12 World Cup games against South American teams, not including penalty shootouts (1978 final v Argentina and 1994 quarter-final v Brazil).
• Against Costa Rica, the Dutch made 692 passes, the most they've recorded in a single World Cup match (1966-2014).
• Ten of the Netherlands' 12 goals in this tournament have come after half-time and their last four goals have come after the 75th minute.
• In their quarter-final, the Netherlands recorded the 11th instance of a team hitting the woodwork three times in a World Cup match (1966-2014).
• The Dutch are the only team to concede more than one penalty at this World Cup.
• Wesley Sneijder has played more World Cup games than any other Dutchman (16).
• Their shoot-out victory over Costa Rica was their sixth in major tournament history and they have now won two and lost four. It was the first time they have converted all their penalties in a shootout in a major tournament.
• They have had seven different goalscorers at this World Cup, more than any team.

MOST RECENT MEETING
Netherlands 0-0 Argentina (21 June 2006)

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 9, 2013. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 PATRIOTIC DREAM 5/1


# 7 ARCODORO 3/1


# 5 STINKING CREEK 9/2


PATRIOTIC DREAM looks to be a very good contender. Has been travelling quite well and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. ARCODORO - Is tough not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 79 avg - of late. Has been moving admirably and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. STINKING CREEK - Is tough not to look at given the company run in recently.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $11,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 SHIFTY 7/2


# 4 CANNA RED 10/1


# 1A OVER THE CLIFF 5/2


SHIFTY looks to be a solid contender. Posted a solid Equibase Speed Figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Dasilva ought to have this filly in excellent position to win the race. OVER THE CLIFF - Looks formidable to be on the lead at the first call. Earned a solid speed figure last time out.

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #4 - Post: 8:09pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,100 Class Rating: 49

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 DISTINCT SPIRIT (ML=8/1)
#1 SPECIALGIRLSAMIE (ML=2/1)


DISTINCT SPIRIT - This filly likes to be near the lead. Today's event is a shorter distance and should enhance her chances. That 34 fig this filly registered in her last clash tells me she's a major player today. SPECIALGIRLSAMIE - This speedy sort should benefit from this contest's shorter trip. This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a high winning percent, right around 33. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the class to make her presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 NANNY MARIE (ML=7/2), #4 TRAUMATIZED (ML=5/1), #5 SAVING JEWELS (ML=8/1),

NANNY MARIE - Would have to move up off that sixth place finish last time to make an impact here. Mediocre rating in the last race at Mountaineer at 5 furlongs. Don't think this racer will improve too much today. TRAUMATIZED - Don't think this entrant will make an impact in today's race. That last rating was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating. SAVING JEWELS - Recent dropping Equibase speed figures of 38/31/26 give a sign that this equine may be going off form. Finished sixth on Jun 28th after the long breather. Doubtful if there will be a reversal of fortune in this race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #2 DISTINCT SPIRIT to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Suffolk Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:12pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 MASTER OF ALL (ML=4/1)
#3 HEAVENLY KNOCKOUT (ML=8/5)


MASTER OF ALL - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the 1st attempt on June 23rd. Should be in tune with the horse even better this time around. We have lots of early speed with this thoroughbred. He could wire this field. HEAVENLY KNOCKOUT - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a good contest on June 25th. I like the way this gelding's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a thoroughbred coming into top form. This horse is utmost in EPS (earnings per start). He looks nice in today's affair. A repeat of that recent race on Jun 25th where he earned a fig of 50 looks good enough to score in this affair.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 JOANIE'S GEM (ML=5/2), #1 DO BE BRIEF (ML=5/1), #5 IMPERIO (ML=8/1),

JOANIE'S GEM - The speed figures continue to drop, 60/53/42. Not a positive sign. DO BE BRIEF - I just don't have a 'use' feeling about this vulnerable equine in this contest. IMPERIO - Don't think that this colt has value at 8/1 in today's event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 MASTER OF ALL is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Pocono Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 6:48 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$4500 - FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $5,000 GEORGE ANTHONY`S PICKS: 1-3-5-9 DRIVER`S CHOICES JOE PAVIA #8 OVER #2


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 CYPRESS HILL SUDS 5/2



# 3 CAROLSTERN 5/1



# 9 TWO WILLOW MCARDIE 8/1



The pick in this event is CYPRESS HILL SUDS. The group noted a formidable affair out of this harness racer last time. Looking for a duplicate of that to score. Napolitano is racking up the wins recently. Fantastic win statistic makes this race horse our pick. CAROLSTERN - Could very well be the finest in the race here, showing formidable ratings of late. Average speed is a solid 78. The number crunching team gives this race horse a very good chance to take this race, class rankings are tops in the field of horses. TWO WILLOW MCARDIE - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at her better than average win percentage. Is a strong win contender given the 75 speed rating from her most recent contest.

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Scioto Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 9:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$13000 - WINNERS OF 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 4 PMRLT OR NW OF 20,000 LIFETIME 6 YEAR OLDS AND UNDER NO. 10 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER G.GRISMORE LISTED 4 - 6


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 ROSE RUN PRINCESS 12/1



# 4 ANNIESBLUEJEANBABY 5/1



# 2 TRAVELIN DREAM 3/1



ROSE RUN PRINCESS sure does look ready to score especially at such a decent 12/1. Can't forget this nice horse, especially in exotics. Pace ratings put her in the mix in here. The brain trust always pays close attention to standardbreds with an equip change. Taking hopples off for this filly. Hands down the best position at Scioto Downs is the 5. The win percent is superb. ANNIESBLUEJEANBABY - Not many folks know, but the 4 post here at Scioto Downs has been amazing for a better than expected win pct. The panel of smart guys happens to know that when you put Grismore and Cox together good results frequently occur. TRAVELIN DREAM - Have a gut feel this one might be close in this contest. Positive feel - racing well enough to contend in this contest.

Northfield: Wednesday 7/9 Analysis
By Ken Walters

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: TICKLE MY FANTASY (10th)

Spot Play: JAWORSKI (6th)


Race 1

(6) SMALLSREED seeks third straight after two very convincing wins. (3) LEGACY CHIP gamed it out in last and looms as prime threat. (2) LULAS LIL SWEETIE made a good try in last. Races second time off the qualifier and might surprise on best.

Race 2

(3) SHELBY LU bore out and could not last as the prohibitive favorite. She is the one to beat. (7) GOLDEN SLIPPER closed strongly in last and just missed. (3) CIN POSSIBLE moves in after being parked the mile in last and after making wide rallied in two before that.

Race 3

(6) HEZATRAIN won last off the qualifier by circling the field and looms large as a repeat winner. (7) CLASSY CHASSY has been second best last two. Why not again? (5) BEAUTY CHIP flashed enough late speed in last to earn a long look in here.

Race 4

(6) KATIE AND J has been good in all recent and won two of those five. (4) OIL SLICKER won two of last three and will be flashing his best in the lane. (1) NOT AGAIN WOMAN was parked for her life in last. Moves back to the rail and will have an easier time of it.

Race 5

(4) NORDIC VENTURE got stuck in a bad place in last. Got claimed and should get better racing luck tonight. (6) COLBY D roared home to win his qualifier after taking a couple of months off. (5) ABBY has some modest late speed and cannot be discarded.

Race 6

(7) JAWORSKI tried the front end two back, tried off the pace in last. Came up short in both. Tonight rides good cover to the lane, tips and roars home. (2) COLUMBIA ART had traffic to clear in lat and flashed enough late rally to earn a long look. (5) MISTYS DIGNITY was parked for life in last and can be tough with better trip.

Race 7

(3) NAVAHOE entered two races versus this kind upon shipping in and his first effort was Monday night. Results are unknown at the moment but this guy will be given strong consideration whatever the result was. (4) LAVROS VISION N has late foot plenty enough to threaten these. (9) ROMAN ROCKS need only clear early logjam to get a chance with this crew through the stretch.

Race 8

(5) FREDSABULLDOG finally bared his fangs enough to kick some tail in last and looms large with similar effort. (9) I O ONE crushed last group and ships in too sharp to ignore. (3) GO SMARTY BRAND will be close when it counts and can land a share.

Race 9

(5) GALE FORCE HANOVER has won all but one of last six and gets the call again. (1) VICTORY CANDY MAN was nailed on the wire in last and the rail will only give this speedy guy a better chance. (2) HERBEDAONE jogged two back and closed late despite being parked a long time in last.

Race 10

(4) TICKLE MY FANTASY closed a ton and paid a ton in last. (1) HANKS KID has speed and the rail and used both assets to notch a win in last. (7) ALLAMERICAN LASER has late speed and has been giving a solid effort in all recent outings.

Race 11

(4) REMBRANDT VAN RYN after so many claims in last few races he may be getting confused where to after the race but veteran has his share of wins over long career and is the one to beat in here. (7) SKEDADDLE HANOVER blew away all comers in last with big score at nearly 40-1. (2) GUNNIN FORAFIGHT should be up close throughout in well matched field.

Race 12

(2) HAT tried the front three back, rallied late two back and rallied too soon in last. Looks like he is tight enough. Now he needs to get his timing down. (4) TOES timed her move perfectly in last to the tune of a new lifetime mark and needs to be that good again. (5) BIT O LOOKS races third over the track in recent days after shipping in and would be tough if ready for best.

Race 13

(4) FREEFALL had two wins, two seconds in last five out of town. (1) HOLLYWOOD HUSTLER has speed and the rail and has a win three back. (9) CINNAMON ROLLS should be able to get away in good order with enough speed in the first tier and that will make a late threat.

Race 14

(7) FARMER JONES took a year off, returned with decent qualifier two back. First race off the layoff was credible and the `farmer' can sow the seeds of victory despite the post. (5) WILD RIDE has been flashing early speed in recent and has shown late speed win a few races back. With right trip he could bring it home. (8) HIGH GEAR WINNER put in quite the effort three back but made his move a bit too early.

Race 15

(3) POWER ROCK rushed home too late in last. Races second time since shipping in and would be quite hard to hold off with similar move. (5) DIAL A DRAGON has been touring the track while racing out of town. Faces slightly weaker in here and should improve some. (4) LUCKY BRAD took some time off, raced a qualifier and showed some renewed life in last which was the first off the qualifier. Vet is eligible to show some more improvement this evening.

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (3rd) Volastic, 3-1
(4th) Rufus Ruth, 3-1

Charles Town (3rd) Justasmallbreeze, 3-1
(9th) Fancy Attitude, 9-2

Delaware Park (1st) Final Heat, 4-1
(8th) Faithful Servant, 7-2


Evangeline Downs (5th) Rivers Antrim, 3-1
(7th) Shezafastcat, 7-2


Indiana Downs (3rd) Linda's Moonshine, 7-2
(5th) Dr. Hal, 3-1


Mountaineer (4th) Traumatized, 5-1
(5th) Call the Guy, 3-1


Penn National (2nd) Mandy's Punch, 4-1
(9th) Affirmed Decision, 7-2


Presque Isle Downs (1st) Calvello, 7-2
(3rd) Bonetown Wild, 5-1


Suffolk Downs (3rd) Legendary King, 7-2
(9th) Bop Bop a Do Wop, 7-2


Thistledown (2nd) Fastinov, 7-2
(8th) Always in Trouble, 4-1


Woodbine (6th) Two Beer Buzz, 3-1
(7th) Sweet Brew, 9-2

Balmoral: Wednesday 7/9 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 6 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (25 - 43 / $104.80): ALLPOWERNOEMOTION (3rd)

Spot Play: SPEEDY ALBER (7th)


Race 1

(4) MACIE RAE might find herself in a different scenario this week but could be too good for her rivals; short price. (2) BAILEY'S WISH is the only threat to the favorite and will probably look to either cut the mile or put pressure on the top choice early. (5) ROLLETTE filly has some ability and could pick up the pieces late if the top two get in a tussle.

Race 2

In a really weak and inconsistent field (9) JOVANNA has paced faster than most in the race and should hit the ticket with a decent effort. (6) MAGIC NUMBER well bred filly makes her career debut against a very suspect field. (10) HOPEFILLY comes off a scratch but could be a player late at a price with some racing luck.

Race 3

(4) ALLPOWERNOEMOTION comes off a dazzling qualifier and could have gone a lot faster. (7) RT HABENERO was really good in the qualifier kicking home nicely. (1) FOX VALLEY QATAR nice looking freshman trotter was an impressive winner last out, gets the best post, and should be perfectly placed for a great trip.

Race 4

(4) ARLO GRAM has some upside and should be much-improved in his second lifetime start. (5) HECTOR B just needs some honest fractions up front and the pacer will be flying late. (6) MEAN JD MUSTARD parlayed a perfect trip into a victory last start and could have more to offer.

Race 5

(6) FOX VALLEY SKYLAR filly has been brought along slowly and has shown much more interest as of late. (2) MY MINI SNICKERS well bred filly could be the most talented but will probably be raced very conservatively in her first lifetime start; use underneath. (4) WE ALL BLED RED scored a victory last out but gets a negative driver change.

Race 6

(9) KENDYL takes a significant drop in class and was the driver's choice. (6) LIQUEUR came up empty for new connections but could be ready to fire second start in a new barn. (5) KITTY O'BRIEN has had some tough racing luck but that could change with a fast pace early.

Race 7

(4) SPEEDY ALBER gelding raced gamely last out, despite being roughed up in his first start back off a long layoff. The 5-year-old appears to have a lot of ability and should be much sharper second start back. (5) B MAN is inconsistent with the miscues from week to week but has a big burst of speed. (1) FOX VALLEY CICERO three-year-old broke his maiden off a perfect trip and could have gained some confidence; threat.

Race 8

(5) ONE LOUD DING has been facing better and a good effort makes him the horse to beat in a wide open race. (8) SATIN SLAYER comes off a win, has actually been racing much better than his lines show and could like the big track; threat. (7) SAND TARYN rarely wins but was the drivers' choice of three.

Race 9

In the toughest race to handicap on the card (2) RICHARD TRACI was empty last out but sharp prior. The pacer should offer a big price; threat. (1) JUSTLIVINTHEDREAM doesn't win often but paced a good mile last out and should be closer turning for home. (3) CAMWISER makes his first start for new connections off a couple of really good efforts.

#1 Sports

Wednesday's free selection

Atlanta Braves - 125

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play

Miami w/Eovaldi +115 Over Arizona

Dave Cokin

Wednesday Bonus Play 7:10 PM MLB

(953) ATLANTA BRAVES at (954) NEW YORK METS

Take: (953) ATLANTA BRAVES -120

There’s a cautionary note right off the bat here. The Braves are a streaky team and one thing they have not done well at all this season is avoid sweeps. This is just the third game of the four-game set between these division rivals, so I’m getting a little ahead of myself, but it’s something to keep in mind for Thursday if this one doesn’t go the right way.

Dillon Gee is making his first start off the DL after a rehab stint that appeared to have gone well. But first games back can be problematic, as it’s obvious a big step up from facing minor leaguers, and there’s often a very short leash involved as well. Therefore it’s tough to do more than take a guess as to what the Mets will get from Gee tonight, but I’m speculating that the pen will work at least a few innings here. That’s not by any means a death knell for the Mets, but this is still a relief corps that doesn’t inspire great confidence.

Ervin Santana has enjoyed his dealings with the Mets, as he’s a perfect 3-0 against them with a starry 0.86 ERA. More importantly, however, Santana comes into this duel in excellent form. He’s had three consecutive high grade outings, with wins in each of his last two starts, and Santana is a guy who can run hot and stay that way for fairly ample increments. Conversely, when Santana goes bad he can be solid fade material for multiple starts. But my experience over the years has taught me that it’s generally not a great idea to try and beat Ervin when he’s hot. Wait for him to cool off before firing against, and that just isn’t the case right now.

Beyond the pitching, the Braves have edges, although they’re really not wipeout category wins. In fact, I’m not sure the Braves even have the better offense with Evan Gattis sidelined. The Mets are swinging the bats fairly well right now, so I’m pretty much calling that a stalemate. But if this is close toward the finish line, I’d have to give Atlanta the edge with the better bullpen.

This fits a pitcher angle I like as my choice has the less impressive ERA but beats his opponent in what I consider the more meaningful peripheral categories. Plus, even though as mentioned earlier, the “due” theory has not panned out well at all with the Braves, I think this is their best matchup in the series and therefore their best chance to get a win. Atlanta will be the popular public side tonight, but I really can’t disagree. Make the Braves the choice as today’s Bonus Play.

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY

Take DETROIT (Scherzer) -125 the over LA Dodgers

Dave Cokin

Wednesday Bonus Play 7:10 PM MLB

(953) ATLANTA BRAVES at (954) NEW YORK METS

Take: (953) ATLANTA BRAVES -120

There’s a cautionary note right off the bat here. The Braves are a streaky team and one thing they have not done well at all this season is avoid sweeps. This is just the third game of the four-game set between these division rivals, so I’m getting a little ahead of myself, but it’s something to keep in mind for Thursday if this one doesn’t go the right way.

Dillon Gee is making his first start off the DL after a rehab stint that appeared to have gone well. But first games back can be problematic, as it’s obvious a big step up from facing minor leaguers, and there’s often a very short leash involved as well. Therefore it’s tough to do more than take a guess as to what the Mets will get from Gee tonight, but I’m speculating that the pen will work at least a few innings here. That’s not by any means a death knell for the Mets, but this is still a relief corps that doesn’t inspire great confidence.

Ervin Santana has enjoyed his dealings with the Mets, as he’s a perfect 3-0 against them with a starry 0.86 ERA. More importantly, however, Santana comes into this duel in excellent form. He’s had three consecutive high grade outings, with wins in each of his last two starts, and Santana is a guy who can run hot and stay that way for fairly ample increments. Conversely, when Santana goes bad he can be solid fade material for multiple starts. But my experience over the years has taught me that it’s generally not a great idea to try and beat Ervin when he’s hot. Wait for him to cool off before firing against, and that just isn’t the case right now.

Beyond the pitching, the Braves have edges, although they’re really not wipeout category wins. In fact, I’m not sure the Braves even have the better offense with Evan Gattis sidelined. The Mets are swinging the bats fairly well right now, so I’m pretty much calling that a stalemate. But if this is close toward the finish line, I’d have to give Atlanta the edge with the better bullpen.

This fits a pitcher angle I like as my choice has the less impressive ERA but beats his opponent in what I consider the more meaningful peripheral categories. Plus, even though as mentioned earlier, the “due” theory has not panned out well at all with the Braves, I think this is their best matchup in the series and therefore their best chance to get a win. Atlanta will be the popular public side tonight, but I really can’t disagree. Make the Braves the choice as today’s Bonus Play.

Totals4U

Wednesday's Free Selection

Kansas City Royals/Tampa Bay Rays over 7

Atlantic Sports

Wednesday's Free Selection

White Sox/Red Sox under 7 1/2