STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, JULY 10th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 7/10/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
The baseball season doesn’t offer players many breathers during the 162-game gauntlet from April to October. That’s why the MLB All-Star Break is always a big deal – even if guys aren’t featured in the annual showcase of baseball’s top talents.
Some teams are closing in on their division leaders and look at the final stretch before the break as a perfect time to put their heads down and go all out before some time off. Others clubs, the ones sliding back in the standings, are counting the days until time away from the diamond, clubhouse and probing media and may not be 100 percent focused on the schedule ahead.
According to StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst James Vogel here are three teams to watch in the final week of Major League Baseball betting action before the All-Star Break.
•Boston Red Sox (39-51, -2257 units)
Whatever you do with Boston after the All-Star break is another story. The Red Sox are a second half team, as evidenced by their late push and World Series run last year. But right now, the BoSox stink and can’t wait for a break from the unforgiving fan base and blood-thirsty media in Beantown.
Boston, which has lost four in a row and seven of its last 10 heading into Wednesday, closes a home series with the White Sox before traveling to Houston for three games before the break. And even though they’ve been crap, expect the Red Sox to carry a big price tag against a Houston team that is showing some fight.
•Texas Rangers (38-52, -1639 units)
Speaking of the Astros putting up their dukes, the Rangers were on the other end of that one-two punch, losing back-to-back games to Houston to start this week. Texas has been plagued with injuries all season and hasn’t been the same since Prince Fielder went down in late May, going 9-17 in June and limping out to a 1-7 start to July.
The team swallowed its gum when ace Yu Darvish was struck in the head by a line drive while practicing in the outfield Tuesday. The club’s philosophy for the rest of the week is “just survive”. That should have them dreaming of poolside loungers and room service - not an upcoming four-game series with the Angels. If any team needs a break, it’s the Rangers.
•San Francisco Giants (49-41, +432 units)
The Giants have had some tough sledding recently, with a schedule that featured home series against Cincinnati and St. Louis and a current interleague set across the bay in Oakland. That stretch, coupled with a floundering offense, has handed Giants backers a 3-7 skid in the club’s last 10 games. San Francisco is counting down the days to the break.
Part of that has to do with the health of key bats Pablo Sandoval, Marco Scutaro, and Angel Pagan. Sandoval returned to the lineup after suffering s bruised elbow this weekend while the other two take steps toward recovery. The Giants have their sights on a second-half push, not the remaining games versus Oakland and Arizona before the All-Star hiatus.
Wednesday's MLB Roundup
•Red Sox Working On New Lester Offer: The Boston Red Sox are continuing conversations that could lead to another offer to left-handed starter Jon Lester, ESPN.com reported Wednesday. An ESPN.com source said those conversations are taking place at the ownership level. Lester, 30, has maintained his preference that the Red Sox not reopen talks until after the season so the negotiations do not become a distraction. The Red Sox reportedly made a four-year, $70 million offer in the spring, but Lester rejected it. He is in the final year of his contract.
Watching with interest is fellow Red Sox pitcher Jake Peavy. "This is somebody I'm very emotionally attached to," Peavy said Tuesday night, according to ESPN.com. "Jon, we'll be friends for life. We love each other. Kinfolk we are. Me speaking on his behalf, that needs to be understood. "I love the Boston Red Sox and respect everybody, but my heart and soul is with Jon Lester. This guy is as good as anybody in the game right now."
Lester, who was named to the All-Star team, is 9-7 with a 2.73 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 122 innings over 18 starts this season. In 11 postseason starts, Lester is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA. In World Series games, his record is 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA. He beat the St. Louis Cardinals twice last season in the World Series, won by the Red Sox in six games.
•Jury Finds Dodgers Negligent In Beating: A jury ruled in favor of San Francisco Giants fan Bryan Stow on Wednesday in a negligence suit filed against the Los Angeles Dodgers after he sustained permanent brain damage during an attack in a Dodger Stadium parking lot on opening day in 2011. Stow was awarded $18 million in damages by the jury. The Dodgers are responsible for a quarter of that figure and the two men who assaulted Stow the rest of the sum. The jury absolved former Dodgers owner Frank McCourt.
The ruling ended weeks of testimony between the two sides in a Los Angeles courtroom. Stow's attorneys argued that the team and its former owner did not provide appropriate security. The defense claimed that Stow was in part to blame because he was intoxicated. The 45-year-old Stow suffered brain damage after the attack in the parking lot. Louie Sanchez and Marvin Norwood, two Dodgers fans, earlier pleaded guilty in the attack. Stow was seeking $37.5 million for lifetie care and compensation for lost earnings. Dana Fox, who represented the Dodgers and McCourt, countered that Stow's blood-alcohol content was .18.
"There were three parties responsible -- Sanchez, Norwood and, unfortunately, Stow himself. There were things Mr. Stow did that put these things in action," Fox said. "You don't get yourself this drunk and then say it's not your fault." Medical experts testified that Stow suffers seizures from the attack and will not be able to work again. "Dodger Stadium got to a place where it was a total mess," Girardi said. "There was a culture of violence. Beer sales were off the charts."
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Betting Notes - Thursday
National League
•Cubs-Reds - 12:35 PM
--Hendricks is making MLB debut; he was 10-5, 3.59 in 17 AAA starts.
--Bailey is 2-2, 2.76 in his last six starts.
--Cubs are 0-6 since Samardzija trade, scoring twelve runs; they had been 11-8 in the 19 games before the trade. .
--Cincinnati won eight of its last nine home games.
--Eight of last eleven Cincinnati games stayed under total.
•Phillies-Brewers - 2:10 PM
--Buchanan is 0-2, 4.91 in his last couple starts.
--Garza is 2-0, 2.30 in his last two starts.
--Phillis won their last three games.
--Milwaukee lost eight of its last nine games.
Seven of last nine Buchanan starts stayed under.
•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Harang is 3-0, 3.43 in his last three starts.
--Colon is 0-2, 6.92 in his last two starts, 1-1, 1.93 versus Atlanta this year.
--Braves lost last four games, after winning nine in row.
--Mets won five of their last six games.
--Five of last seven Colon starts went over the total.
•Pirates-Cardinals - 7:15 PM
--Volquez is 3-0, 0.86 in his last three starts.
--Miller is 0-2, 7.32 in his last four starts.
--Pirates lost their last four road games.
--St Louis won six of its last eight home games.
--Under is 9-2-1 in Cardinals' last twelve home games.
•Padres-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Despaigne is 2-0, 0.92 in his first three MLB starts.
--Kershaw is 7-0, 0.69 in his last seven starts; he hasn't allowed a run in his last 36 innings.
--Padres won six of their last nine games.
--Dodgers lost three of their last four games.
--Four of six Kershaw home starts went over the total.
American League
•White Sox-Red Sox - 4:05 PM
--Quintana is 2-0, 0.94 in his last four starts.
--Lester is 3-0, 2.13 in his last five starts.
--White Sox won five of their last seven games.
--Red Sox lost 13 of their last 19 games.
--15 of last 21 games at Fenway Park stayed under.
•Yankees-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Phelps has a 2.13 RA in his last two starts, but Yankees are 3-9 when he starts.
--House is 1-1, 3.50 in his last three starts.
--New York won six of their last eight road games.
--Indians won five of their last eight games.
--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Cleveland home games.
•Angels-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Santiago is 0-2, 5.96 in his last five starts.
--Lewis is 2-2, 6.41 in his last seven starts.
--Angels won eight of their last ten games.
--Rangers lost ten of their last eleven games.
--Last six Texas games went over the total.
•Tigers-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Smyly is 1-4, 4.39 in his last five starts.
--Guthrie is 0-1, 8.44 in his last two starts.
--Detroit won seven of its last ten road games.
--Royals are 8-11 in their last 19 games, 3-6 in last nine at home.
--Four of last five Guthrie starts went over the total.
•Twins-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Pino is 0-2, 6.14 in his last three starts.
--Seattle is pushing King Felix back to Friday against the A's; they're going with a bullpen-by-committee approach in this game.
--Minnesota lost six of its last nine games, but won last two.
--Mariners won eight of their last twelve games, but lost last two.
--Four of last five Seattle road games stayed under.
Interleague
•Nationals-Orioles - 3:45 PM
--Gonzalez is 3-0, 0.00 (21 IP) in his last three starts.
--Chen is 1-1, 5.40 in his last four starts.
--Orioles won seven of their last nine games.
--Washington won eight of its last ten games.
--Nine of last thirteen Washington games went over.
•Athletics-Giants - 7:05 PM
--Kazmir is 4-1, 3.06 in his last six starts.
--Hudson is 0-3, 5.92 in his last four starts (0-1, 1.93 in last two).
--A's won six of last seven games, but lost last four on road.
--Giants lost nine of their last thirteen games.
--Under is 6-0-1 in last seven Oakland games.
•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Cin-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Muchinski games.
-- Atl-NY-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Timmons games.
-- Phil-Mil-- Underdogs won four of last five Bellino games.
-- Pitt-StL-- Nine of last fifteen Drake games went over.
-- NY-Clev-- Road teams won eight of last ten Knight games.
-- Chi-Bos-- Underdogs won 12 of last 15 Hudson games.
-- Min-Sea-- Under is 11-5-1 in last 17 Scott games; faves won four of last five.
-- Wsh-Blt--Three of last four Bucknor games went over total.
-- SF-A's-- Over is 11-5 in Johnson games this season.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
The Los Angeles Angels have dropped eight straight against the Rangers in Texas entering Thursday's four-game series - its longest current road skid against any team. In their last series there, the Angels concluded 2013 by being swept in four at Texas for the first time since 1978. Looking to help Los Angeles to its first win (at Globe Life Park in Arlington), since April 4th of last year will be left-hander Hector Santiago (0-7, 4.50 ERA), who hasn't earned a victory since Aug. 18.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
•LA DODGERS are 26-4 (+20.7 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 4.3, OPPONENT 1.6.
•MILWAUKEE is 40-16 UNDER (+21.7 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 3.7, OPPONENT 3.6.
•TEXAS is 6-20 (-19.3 Units) against the run line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.6, OPPONENT 5.3.
•EDINSON VOLQUEZ is 13-2 (+13.1 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was VOLQUEZ 4.9, OPPONENT 3.5.
•JOSE QUINTANA is 18-3 UNDER (+14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was QUINTANA 3.3, OPPONENT 3.1.
•SCOTT KAZMIR is 24-9 (+18.5 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was KAZMIR 5.7, OPPONENT 3.1.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (National League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.
(53-5 since 1997.) (91.4%, +42.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -220
The average score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 2.5 (Average run differential = +3)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1, +1.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2, +7.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-2, +18.3 units).
•Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70) - American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(64-22 since 1997.) (74.4%, +45.8 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (58-28)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.7, money line price: +106
The average score in these games was: Team 5, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +0.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 54 (62.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (6-1, +6.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-8, +16.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (35-13, +24.5 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 10 or higher (LA ANGELS) - below average American League hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA >=4.50), with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.
(66-31 since 1997.) (68.0%, +33.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 10.5, Money Line=-104.7
The average score in these games was: Team 4.4, Opponent 4.6 (Total runs scored = 9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 55 (57.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (1-0, +1 units).
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w-thumbs!^
