[h=1]How to bet the World Cup final[/h][h=3]Betting the 'Over' a smart value for Germany vs. Argentina[/h]By James Eastham | ESPN Insider
It's finally here. After weeks of exciting games between the top international teams, the World Cup final is now upon us. It features to be an intriguing match for both bettors and fans alike, as Germany's high-powered offense takes on Argentina's stout defense.
What are the best values for Sunday's game? Let's take a look.
[h=3]Germany vs. Argentina[/h]
Asian handicap: Germany -0.25 (-101) vs. Argentina +0.25 (-105)
3-way line: Germany +133 / Argentina +255 / Draw +223
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 65 percent Germany
Total: 2 (Over -106, Under -102)
The way to bet this game largely depends on whether you've been following our picks from the start. If you backed our pretournament recommendation on Germany to lift the trophy, then you have a failsafe opportunity to make a profit by backing Argentina to do likewise. Normally we recommend level-stakes betting -- but having recommended Germany at plus-500 before the World Cup kicked off, it would make sense to place higher stakes on Argentina in order to guarantee an identical profit, regardless of which side is crowned world champions on Sunday.
<OFFER></OFFER>
If you're going into the game "cold," as opposed to taking open bets into account, then Germany is the way to play. They have been a slow-burner of a team, building through the rounds to that astonishing 7-1 demolition of Brazil in the semifinals. The contrast between the coherent, confident nature of that remarkable German performance and the stilted, unimaginative football Argentina have produced in the knockout phase is stark, to the point that even the presence of Lionel Messi is not enough to predict an Argentina victory.
On top of their convincing performance level, Germany has another distinct advantage: its semifinal took place 24 hours before Argentina's. Messi's team's soporific last-four clash with Netherlands went to extra-time and penalties, whereas Germany was able to switch off after 45 minutes because its game against Brazil was effectively won at halftime.
The Total market is intriguing, for the simple reason this has been a World Cup where the goals rained in from all angles during the group phase and then suddenly dried out when the knockout phase began. Look at the stats -- the average goals-per-game count across those 48 group-phase games was 2.83, but this figure then plummeted to 1.71 across 14 sudden-death encounters (90 mins only).
The low-scoring nature of the knockout phase is the reason the Total line is set low, but I have a sneaking feeling that "Overs" will offer better value than "Unders." These two sides have defended stoutly over the past three rounds of matches, but Germany is a formidable attacking force, and I suspect it will be able to dictate the early rhythm and tempo of the game because of their superior team play. A goal for either side in the first half is likely to lead to at least one goal in the second half, as the trailing side will have to battle ever more frantically to get back into the match, and spaces should open up. I expect a first-half goal, so Overs is the pick.
The picks: If you backed Germany (plus-500) pretournament, back Argentina (plus-130) to lift the trophy at stakes 2.6 times bigger than the stakes you placed on Germany. This will ensure the same payout regardless of which side wins the World Cup.
Other smart bets
Germany on the three-way line (plus-133)
Over two goals (-106)
It's finally here. After weeks of exciting games between the top international teams, the World Cup final is now upon us. It features to be an intriguing match for both bettors and fans alike, as Germany's high-powered offense takes on Argentina's stout defense.
What are the best values for Sunday's game? Let's take a look.
[h=3]Germany vs. Argentina[/h]
Asian handicap: Germany -0.25 (-101) vs. Argentina +0.25 (-105)
3-way line: Germany +133 / Argentina +255 / Draw +223
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 65 percent Germany
Total: 2 (Over -106, Under -102)
The way to bet this game largely depends on whether you've been following our picks from the start. If you backed our pretournament recommendation on Germany to lift the trophy, then you have a failsafe opportunity to make a profit by backing Argentina to do likewise. Normally we recommend level-stakes betting -- but having recommended Germany at plus-500 before the World Cup kicked off, it would make sense to place higher stakes on Argentina in order to guarantee an identical profit, regardless of which side is crowned world champions on Sunday.
<OFFER></OFFER>
If you're going into the game "cold," as opposed to taking open bets into account, then Germany is the way to play. They have been a slow-burner of a team, building through the rounds to that astonishing 7-1 demolition of Brazil in the semifinals. The contrast between the coherent, confident nature of that remarkable German performance and the stilted, unimaginative football Argentina have produced in the knockout phase is stark, to the point that even the presence of Lionel Messi is not enough to predict an Argentina victory.
On top of their convincing performance level, Germany has another distinct advantage: its semifinal took place 24 hours before Argentina's. Messi's team's soporific last-four clash with Netherlands went to extra-time and penalties, whereas Germany was able to switch off after 45 minutes because its game against Brazil was effectively won at halftime.
The Total market is intriguing, for the simple reason this has been a World Cup where the goals rained in from all angles during the group phase and then suddenly dried out when the knockout phase began. Look at the stats -- the average goals-per-game count across those 48 group-phase games was 2.83, but this figure then plummeted to 1.71 across 14 sudden-death encounters (90 mins only).
The low-scoring nature of the knockout phase is the reason the Total line is set low, but I have a sneaking feeling that "Overs" will offer better value than "Unders." These two sides have defended stoutly over the past three rounds of matches, but Germany is a formidable attacking force, and I suspect it will be able to dictate the early rhythm and tempo of the game because of their superior team play. A goal for either side in the first half is likely to lead to at least one goal in the second half, as the trailing side will have to battle ever more frantically to get back into the match, and spaces should open up. I expect a first-half goal, so Overs is the pick.
The picks: If you backed Germany (plus-500) pretournament, back Argentina (plus-130) to lift the trophy at stakes 2.6 times bigger than the stakes you placed on Germany. This will ensure the same payout regardless of which side wins the World Cup.
Other smart bets
Germany on the three-way line (plus-133)
Over two goals (-106)
