[h=1]Are Cavs a good title bet now?[/h][h=3]Insider's Vegas experts weigh in on if there's value on LeBron's new team[/h]By Dave Tuley and Erin Rynning | ESPN Insider
LAS VEGAS -- Decision II is in the books, and the reaction in the sports books here has been fast and furious even before Friday's official announcement that LeBron James is returning to Cleveland. Everyone is talking about the power shift in the NBA with LeBron James taking his talents back to Cleveland, and by now you've probably heard that the Cavaliers are the future-book favorite at many shops to win the 2014-15 NBA title.
The Westgate SuperBook (formerly LVH) reopened the Cavaliers at 3-1 on Friday morning when the news broke (before sports book director Ed Salmons got in to work), and then they readjusted them to 4-1. But the Cavs' favoritism isn't unanimous, as the Wynn and the William Hill sports books both went with the Cavs at 9-2 with the Oklahoma City Thunder the 4-1 fave at the Wynn, and the defending champion San Antonio Spurs the 4-1 fave at William Hill. So the question now is: Are the Cavaliers a good bet?
From a market standpoint, the answer is clearly "no." As was pointing out in David Purdum's piece on ESPN.com posted this past Monday, the Cavaliers have been getting pounded in the futures the past two weeks as the rumors of King James' intentions grew louder and louder. Most books are reporting that most of the liability is from wise guys who were betting when the Cavs were still around 30-1 and before the books dropped their odds further to slow the flow of betting.<OFFER></OFFER>
That was the time to bet the Cavaliers. Not now.
I can take the feeling of regret a step further. After the Spurs wrapped up the NBA title back in June, we wrote a piece for ESPN Insider on the best value bets for the 2014-15 NBA season. At the end, yours truly, Dave Tuley, tossed out a few "potential value plays" and included at the very end: "Cavaliers at 60-1 [but only if you think LeBron returns to Cleveland]." I wish I had a time machine to go back and make that bet, or at least do a more convincing write-up.
So, there's no way I'd bet them now at 4-1 or 9-2 when they were readily available at 60-1 and 30-1. In fact, an argument could be made that the Cavaliers' odds are depressed because of all those earlier bets and much shorter than their true odds (see Jeff Sherman's comment in Purdum's piece that the LVH was leaning toward making the Cavs 8-1 if they got James). If you could lay minus-500 that they will "not" win the next NBA title, that might actually be a good value bet.
Of course, we can't go back in time, so we can only bet with the odds in front of us. If someone is really looking to bet the Cavaliers, I think they should only consider it if they believe Cleveland will add another superstar (Kevin Love being the biggest rumor out there) to help instead of it just being James with a bunch of youngsters. A lot is being made of the Cavaliers' ability to still wheel-and-deal with their accumulated talent and draft picks, ironically including the Heat's No. 1 pick next year, which could possibly be a lottery pick (though that possibility lessens if Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh both return).
If that's the case and the Cavaliers become a stronger team, 9-2 might look like a bargain a week from now.
Erin Rynning's take
I figured King James would make a move back to the Cavaliers at some point in his career, but not this soon. It made a bit more sense for LeBron to play elsewhere for a few years as the Cavaliers matured and gained experience if winning a championship was the No. 1 factor. With LeBron's decision, it's clear this isn't about winning as many championships as possible for the best player in the world. Regardless, this is awesome for fans in Cleveland and the NBA.
From a betting standpoint, the move by Westgate SuperBook to the Cavaliers as a 5-7 favorite to win the East (now 6-5) feels premature. I view the Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers as pretty even currently in the Eastern Conference, as now the Heat clearly have no shot. In fact, this Eastern Conference Central Division is stacked with expected improvement from the Detroit Pistons, as well.
The questions for the Cavaliers clearly point to defense, shooting, chemistry and inexperience. Cleveland's new coach Dave Blatt is solid and capable, although his lack of NBA familiarity is a key factor. However, Blatt is a better coach than predecessors Byron Scott and Mike Brown.
Kyrie Irving and Andrew Wiggins are great building blocks, but they're not yet on the level of Bosh and Wade. Winning the Eastern Conference could easily come down to either the Bulls or Cavaliers obtaining Kevin Love or another difference-maker. LeBron will win another NBA title in his career, but the true odds are more than 3-1, and currently should be around 10-1 for the upcoming season. The Cavaliers are a clear East contender, but still not on par to challenging the superior Western Conference teams.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2014-2015 NBA FUTURES[/h](Courtesy LVH SuperBook)
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LAS VEGAS -- Decision II is in the books, and the reaction in the sports books here has been fast and furious even before Friday's official announcement that LeBron James is returning to Cleveland. Everyone is talking about the power shift in the NBA with LeBron James taking his talents back to Cleveland, and by now you've probably heard that the Cavaliers are the future-book favorite at many shops to win the 2014-15 NBA title.
The Westgate SuperBook (formerly LVH) reopened the Cavaliers at 3-1 on Friday morning when the news broke (before sports book director Ed Salmons got in to work), and then they readjusted them to 4-1. But the Cavs' favoritism isn't unanimous, as the Wynn and the William Hill sports books both went with the Cavs at 9-2 with the Oklahoma City Thunder the 4-1 fave at the Wynn, and the defending champion San Antonio Spurs the 4-1 fave at William Hill. So the question now is: Are the Cavaliers a good bet?
From a market standpoint, the answer is clearly "no." As was pointing out in David Purdum's piece on ESPN.com posted this past Monday, the Cavaliers have been getting pounded in the futures the past two weeks as the rumors of King James' intentions grew louder and louder. Most books are reporting that most of the liability is from wise guys who were betting when the Cavs were still around 30-1 and before the books dropped their odds further to slow the flow of betting.<OFFER></OFFER>
That was the time to bet the Cavaliers. Not now.
I can take the feeling of regret a step further. After the Spurs wrapped up the NBA title back in June, we wrote a piece for ESPN Insider on the best value bets for the 2014-15 NBA season. At the end, yours truly, Dave Tuley, tossed out a few "potential value plays" and included at the very end: "Cavaliers at 60-1 [but only if you think LeBron returns to Cleveland]." I wish I had a time machine to go back and make that bet, or at least do a more convincing write-up.
So, there's no way I'd bet them now at 4-1 or 9-2 when they were readily available at 60-1 and 30-1. In fact, an argument could be made that the Cavaliers' odds are depressed because of all those earlier bets and much shorter than their true odds (see Jeff Sherman's comment in Purdum's piece that the LVH was leaning toward making the Cavs 8-1 if they got James). If you could lay minus-500 that they will "not" win the next NBA title, that might actually be a good value bet.
Of course, we can't go back in time, so we can only bet with the odds in front of us. If someone is really looking to bet the Cavaliers, I think they should only consider it if they believe Cleveland will add another superstar (Kevin Love being the biggest rumor out there) to help instead of it just being James with a bunch of youngsters. A lot is being made of the Cavaliers' ability to still wheel-and-deal with their accumulated talent and draft picks, ironically including the Heat's No. 1 pick next year, which could possibly be a lottery pick (though that possibility lessens if Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh both return).
If that's the case and the Cavaliers become a stronger team, 9-2 might look like a bargain a week from now.
Erin Rynning's take
I figured King James would make a move back to the Cavaliers at some point in his career, but not this soon. It made a bit more sense for LeBron to play elsewhere for a few years as the Cavaliers matured and gained experience if winning a championship was the No. 1 factor. With LeBron's decision, it's clear this isn't about winning as many championships as possible for the best player in the world. Regardless, this is awesome for fans in Cleveland and the NBA.
From a betting standpoint, the move by Westgate SuperBook to the Cavaliers as a 5-7 favorite to win the East (now 6-5) feels premature. I view the Cavaliers, Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers as pretty even currently in the Eastern Conference, as now the Heat clearly have no shot. In fact, this Eastern Conference Central Division is stacked with expected improvement from the Detroit Pistons, as well.
The questions for the Cavaliers clearly point to defense, shooting, chemistry and inexperience. Cleveland's new coach Dave Blatt is solid and capable, although his lack of NBA familiarity is a key factor. However, Blatt is a better coach than predecessors Byron Scott and Mike Brown.
Kyrie Irving and Andrew Wiggins are great building blocks, but they're not yet on the level of Bosh and Wade. Winning the Eastern Conference could easily come down to either the Bulls or Cavaliers obtaining Kevin Love or another difference-maker. LeBron will win another NBA title in his career, but the true odds are more than 3-1, and currently should be around 10-1 for the upcoming season. The Cavaliers are a clear East contender, but still not on par to challenging the superior Western Conference teams.
<!-- begin inline 1 -->[h=4]2014-2015 NBA FUTURES[/h](Courtesy LVH SuperBook)
| Team | June 16 | July 11 (after LeBron's decision) |
|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | 60-1 | 4-1 |
| Spurs | 9-2 | 4-1 |
| Thunder | 9-2 | 9-2 |
| Bulls | 12-1 | 6-1 |
| Clippers | 10-1 | 10-1 |
| Pacers | 12-1 | 15-1 |
| Rockets | 20-1 | 16-1 |
| Wizards | 30-1 | 20-1 |
| Warriors | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Trail Blazers | 30-1 | 40-1 |
| Nets | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Mavericks | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Raptors | 50-1 | 40-1 |
| Heat | 5-2 | 40-1 |
| Knicks | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Grizzlies | 40-1 | 50-1 |
| Hawks | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Suns | 60-1 | 60-1 |
| Hornets | 60-1 | 60-1 |
| Nuggets | 50-1 | 60-1 |
| Timberwolves | 50-1 | 100-1 |
| Pelicans | 50-1 | 100-1 |
| Lakers | 50-1 | 100-1 |
| Celtics | 60-1 | 100-1 |
| Jazz | 100-1 | 200-1 |
| Kings | 100-1 | 200-1 |
| Pistons | 100-1 | 200-1 |
| Magic | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Bucks | 300-1 | 300-1 |
| 76ers | 200-1 | 500-1 |
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