[h=1]Best '14 Open Championship bets[/h][h=3]Tiger Woods (15-1) among best bets for the Open at Hoylake
LAS VEGAS -- There are plenty of unpredictable things about the Open Championship, a tournament played on links courses unfamiliar to most and often in less-than-ideal conditions. But one thing we could have predicted is there's more betting interest with Tiger Woods playing, after he missed the Masters and U.S. Open.[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Jeff Sherman, who sets the golf odds for Jay Kornegay at the LVH SuperBook, told me the Masters is always the biggest handle of golf's four majors with the U.S. Open usually handling about half as much and then another drop-off to the Open Championship. This year, though, the British handle at the LVH is approaching last month's U.S. Open handle. And it's mostly thanks to the return of Woods.
"As of now, we've written the second-most tickets on Tiger, just behind [U.S. Open champion Martin Kaymer], but I fully expect that Tiger will pass him by the time they tee off," Sherman said early Tuesday morning. "I had Tiger at 25-1, but we took a limit bet on him and lowered him to 20-1 and then we got more action and he's now 15-1."
(Note: the LVH's limit is "to win $50,000," so a limit wager at 25-1 would be $2,000. They would take $100 on a 500-1 long shot.)
Sherman said 98 percent of the action on the odds to win the tournament is public money; the sharps usually concentrate on the matchups and props to try to find their edges. Alf Musketa, the sharpest golf handicapper I know and the man who usually pens the golf betting previews for ESPN Insider, thinks the Open "will be a crapshoot with all the crazy bounces at Hoylake."
I certainly respect his decision to pass, but I'm not against taking a shot in such sporting events (although I would suggest you take your normal "unit" that you might bet on a golfer to win a tournament and instead divide that up among several golfers). After all, we've seen the Open produce some very unlikely results, such as Ben Curtis (2003) and Todd Hamilton (2004) winning at odds of 500-1, so I can't blame anyone for taking a flier.
As a result, I'm leaning on Sherman to give more insight about whom to consider this week. In sports I don't follow as closely, I'm not opposed to using the knowledge offered by an oddsmaker I respect and betting that at another book. (The odds posted here are the odds from the LVH SuperBook, but, as always, shop around for the best price you can find.)
Sherman said this Open Championship was particularly hard to handicap.<OFFER></OFFER>
"They last played the Open here at Hoylake in 2006 and before that was 1967, so there's not a lot to go on with today's players at this course," he said. "There are a lot of similarities with Royal Birkdale, where they played in 2008, so I also looked at those scores."
When Sherman, who also operates his own website called golfodds.com, sent his odds to the media earlier in the week, he added a note that prop bets wouldn't be available until later "due to importance of weather conditions."
"Wind always seems to be a big factor in the Open," he added Tuesday, "but the latest weather reports I'm seeing call for light winds, so it might help some of the long hitters."
That comment certainly makes me take a glance to Bubba Watson (40-1) and Dustin Johnson (30-1), the top two in driving distance on the PGA Tour so far this year, as live long shots. Of course, Rory McIlroy is seventh on the list, and he's now a 12-1 co-favorite at the LVH along with Adam Scott and Justin Rose.
"McIlroy was 15-1, but the same individual who bet Tiger also bet Rory, so I lowered him to 12-1," Sherman said.
McIlroy is from Northern Ireland, and it's not a surprise that he would be getting betting support. In fact, Sherman said that he pretty much has to lower odds on all the players from outside the U.S. because the public loves betting them in the Open.
"Thomas Bjorn and Paul Casey are both 50-1," he said. "If this was the Masters, they'd both be 100-1, but you have to respect those who have played well on links courses over there. Henrik Stenson, at 15-1, is also going to be a pick of a lot of people."
But it's not just the non-Americans that Sherman will sometimes lower to minimize his liability. "We had Jim Furyk at 60-1, and I lowered him to 50-1," Sherman said. "He hits the ball straight, and he's been playing well."
We're not going to make any head-to-head matchup plays -- which, again, is Musketa's expertise but is easier to actually handicap under ideal conditions -- but Sherman does advise that if you play them to really pay attention to weather reports and players' tee times. For instance, the weather might be calm early in the day and easier to score low while someone's opponent might be playing when it's windier.
[h=3]Tuley's Take for 2014 Open Championship[/h]I'm not going to go nuts in such a wide-open tournament, but I'll split up $100 in wagers and try to find the winner (note: again, shop for the best price available).
Tiger Woods ($20 at 15-1): I don't think I've ever bet Woods before (to my detriment during his heyday), but it's not often we get him at double-digit odds. Sure, he missed the cut at the Quicken Loans National at Congressional in his first tourney back from injury, and he hasn't won a major since the 2008 U.S. Open, but he's still the best golfer in the world when he's right and Tiger believes he can come off surgery and win. I mean, are you going to wait for him to win a tourney or two and then get 4-1 on him? Taking a shot on him at 15-1 seems better, plus he was still between 18-1 and 22-1 at several offshore books as of early Tuesday.
Bubba Watson ($20 at 40-1): Hopefully the early weather reports are accurate and Big Bubba can rip away. And just like fellow lefty Phil Mickelson, he can get creative when finding trouble and scramble to save pars.
Jim Furyk ($20 at 50-1): I've always liked Furyk, and I also like what Sherman was saying about him. Plenty of books still have him around 65-1.
Jamie Donaldson ($20 at 80-1): Sherman didn't mention him by name, but he's another top European player whose odds should be lower.
Padraig Harrington ($10 at 150-1): He's not in good form this year with several missed cuts, but he did win the 2008 Open at Royal Birkdale that Sherman mentioned.
[h=1]Best '14 Open Championship bets[/h][h=3]Tiger Woods (15-1) among best bets for the Open at Hoylake[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Darren Clarke ($10 at 300-1): Clarke has been a hit-or-miss golfer most of his career. He won the 2011 Open Championship after never having finished a major in the top 10 and has been inconsistent since. But he's the type who could step it up again for one glorious weekend.
LAS VEGAS -- There are plenty of unpredictable things about the Open Championship, a tournament played on links courses unfamiliar to most and often in less-than-ideal conditions. But one thing we could have predicted is there's more betting interest with Tiger Woods playing, after he missed the Masters and U.S. Open.[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Jeff Sherman, who sets the golf odds for Jay Kornegay at the LVH SuperBook, told me the Masters is always the biggest handle of golf's four majors with the U.S. Open usually handling about half as much and then another drop-off to the Open Championship. This year, though, the British handle at the LVH is approaching last month's U.S. Open handle. And it's mostly thanks to the return of Woods.
"As of now, we've written the second-most tickets on Tiger, just behind [U.S. Open champion Martin Kaymer], but I fully expect that Tiger will pass him by the time they tee off," Sherman said early Tuesday morning. "I had Tiger at 25-1, but we took a limit bet on him and lowered him to 20-1 and then we got more action and he's now 15-1."
(Note: the LVH's limit is "to win $50,000," so a limit wager at 25-1 would be $2,000. They would take $100 on a 500-1 long shot.)
Sherman said 98 percent of the action on the odds to win the tournament is public money; the sharps usually concentrate on the matchups and props to try to find their edges. Alf Musketa, the sharpest golf handicapper I know and the man who usually pens the golf betting previews for ESPN Insider, thinks the Open "will be a crapshoot with all the crazy bounces at Hoylake."
I certainly respect his decision to pass, but I'm not against taking a shot in such sporting events (although I would suggest you take your normal "unit" that you might bet on a golfer to win a tournament and instead divide that up among several golfers). After all, we've seen the Open produce some very unlikely results, such as Ben Curtis (2003) and Todd Hamilton (2004) winning at odds of 500-1, so I can't blame anyone for taking a flier.
As a result, I'm leaning on Sherman to give more insight about whom to consider this week. In sports I don't follow as closely, I'm not opposed to using the knowledge offered by an oddsmaker I respect and betting that at another book. (The odds posted here are the odds from the LVH SuperBook, but, as always, shop around for the best price you can find.)
Sherman said this Open Championship was particularly hard to handicap.<OFFER></OFFER>
"They last played the Open here at Hoylake in 2006 and before that was 1967, so there's not a lot to go on with today's players at this course," he said. "There are a lot of similarities with Royal Birkdale, where they played in 2008, so I also looked at those scores."
When Sherman, who also operates his own website called golfodds.com, sent his odds to the media earlier in the week, he added a note that prop bets wouldn't be available until later "due to importance of weather conditions."
"Wind always seems to be a big factor in the Open," he added Tuesday, "but the latest weather reports I'm seeing call for light winds, so it might help some of the long hitters."
That comment certainly makes me take a glance to Bubba Watson (40-1) and Dustin Johnson (30-1), the top two in driving distance on the PGA Tour so far this year, as live long shots. Of course, Rory McIlroy is seventh on the list, and he's now a 12-1 co-favorite at the LVH along with Adam Scott and Justin Rose.
"McIlroy was 15-1, but the same individual who bet Tiger also bet Rory, so I lowered him to 12-1," Sherman said.
McIlroy is from Northern Ireland, and it's not a surprise that he would be getting betting support. In fact, Sherman said that he pretty much has to lower odds on all the players from outside the U.S. because the public loves betting them in the Open.
"Thomas Bjorn and Paul Casey are both 50-1," he said. "If this was the Masters, they'd both be 100-1, but you have to respect those who have played well on links courses over there. Henrik Stenson, at 15-1, is also going to be a pick of a lot of people."
But it's not just the non-Americans that Sherman will sometimes lower to minimize his liability. "We had Jim Furyk at 60-1, and I lowered him to 50-1," Sherman said. "He hits the ball straight, and he's been playing well."
We're not going to make any head-to-head matchup plays -- which, again, is Musketa's expertise but is easier to actually handicap under ideal conditions -- but Sherman does advise that if you play them to really pay attention to weather reports and players' tee times. For instance, the weather might be calm early in the day and easier to score low while someone's opponent might be playing when it's windier.
[h=3]Tuley's Take for 2014 Open Championship[/h]I'm not going to go nuts in such a wide-open tournament, but I'll split up $100 in wagers and try to find the winner (note: again, shop for the best price available).
Tiger Woods ($20 at 15-1): I don't think I've ever bet Woods before (to my detriment during his heyday), but it's not often we get him at double-digit odds. Sure, he missed the cut at the Quicken Loans National at Congressional in his first tourney back from injury, and he hasn't won a major since the 2008 U.S. Open, but he's still the best golfer in the world when he's right and Tiger believes he can come off surgery and win. I mean, are you going to wait for him to win a tourney or two and then get 4-1 on him? Taking a shot on him at 15-1 seems better, plus he was still between 18-1 and 22-1 at several offshore books as of early Tuesday.
Bubba Watson ($20 at 40-1): Hopefully the early weather reports are accurate and Big Bubba can rip away. And just like fellow lefty Phil Mickelson, he can get creative when finding trouble and scramble to save pars.
Jim Furyk ($20 at 50-1): I've always liked Furyk, and I also like what Sherman was saying about him. Plenty of books still have him around 65-1.
Jamie Donaldson ($20 at 80-1): Sherman didn't mention him by name, but he's another top European player whose odds should be lower.
Padraig Harrington ($10 at 150-1): He's not in good form this year with several missed cuts, but he did win the 2008 Open at Royal Birkdale that Sherman mentioned.
[h=1]Best '14 Open Championship bets[/h][h=3]Tiger Woods (15-1) among best bets for the Open at Hoylake[/h]By Dave Tuley | ESPN Insider
Darren Clarke ($10 at 300-1): Clarke has been a hit-or-miss golfer most of his career. He won the 2011 Open Championship after never having finished a major in the top 10 and has been inconsistent since. But he's the type who could step it up again for one glorious weekend.
