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CFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, July 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EDMONTON (3 - 0) at WINNIPEG (3 - 0) - 7/17/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

CFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, July 17

8:30 PM
EDMONTON vs. WINNIPEG
Edmonton is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 11 games at home
Winnipeg is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 100

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR INDIANA BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE ON THE TURF SINCE JUNE 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 IF



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 GRIP HANDS 7/2


# 3 RINCON BEHR 4/1


# 2 VISIONARY RULER 6/5


My pick in this event is GRIP HANDS. He has recorded quite good figures under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group. Hard to pass on this gelding with Castanon in the irons. Ran a sharp last race. RINCON BEHR - Will probably go to the lead and should never look back. He has put up competitive figs under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this field. VISIONARY RULER - Is difficult not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 96 avg - of late. With a solid 105 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sacramento

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 59

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 THUNDERELLA RUN 9/5


# 2 COUNTRY COUNTESS 6/1


# 6 WHAT ABOUT NATALIE 7/2


THUNDERELLA RUN is my choice. With Ramirez on top her, this mare will probably be able to break out sharply in this race. Demonstrates the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 53 speed rating which is one of the most respectable in this group. Posted a reliable speed rating in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. WHAT ABOUT NATALIE - Seems to have a very good class edge based on the recent company kept.

Handicapped by Ellis Starr at Del Mar

Race #8 - Rating = 3

#10 Texas Ryano - Fair odds 5/2
#9 Enterprising - Fair odds 5/2
#5 Patriots Rule - Fair odds 7/2


Exacta: Box 1,4,5,9,10 (Cost is $20 at the $1 level and we win if any TWO of the 5 finish 1st and 2nd in any order regardless of where the other 3 finish. I don't make this bet often but in a 12 horse field with lots of longshots it appears worth the risk)


#1 is Argyle Cut and #4 is Love Rules All Also consider also-eligible #13 Sammy Mandeville if he draws in as Bejarano is named to ride and his effort when breaking his maiden one before last on the turf would be competitive if repeated.


This year's Oceanside Stakes comes up deep, with many ways to go, but I feel Texas Ryano and Enterprising have an edge on the rest. We'll start with Enterprising, who is barely eligible to run in this race (restricted to horses that haven't won a race worth $50K to the winner in 2014) because the winner's share of the Pasadena Stakes he won in March was $48K. He also won the Eddie Logan last fall as a 2 year old and is now 3 for 3 at a mile on grass, the distance he cuts back to after finishing 3rd at 9 furlong last out, with the horse that beat him for 2nd having come right back to win a stakes last month.


In the Pasadena, Enterprising beat his stablemate Quotient by a nose, and that's one of the reasons I think Texas Ryano can win here, perhaps at decent odds as he's stepping into stakes for the first time. Texas Ryano comes from a tremendous family, a half-brother to many multiple winners and stakes winners out of the dam Blending Element. Texas Ryano won at a mile on grass in his career debut, no easy task at all, rallying from last of 9, then 2 later beat quotient at 9 furlongs on turf, getting the last 8th in a sparkling 11.2 seconds. Considering Enterprising can motor the last 1/4 in 22.6, these two could hook up in the last 1/16 in a big battle.


Patriots Rule ships down from Golden Gate off a big effort in the Cal-Bred Silky Sullivan Stakes, having run like the horse that race was named for. He rallied from last of 8 and missed in a three horse photo by inches, his 3rd straight "A" race since trying turf, the one before that a big runner-up effort in a 250K stakes race for Cal-breds on the grass at Santa Anita. Trainer Diodoro's main rider Perez made the trip up north and rides Patriots Rule back again and with any racing luck to find a spot to run in the last 1/8 of a mile he could run big again.

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #3 - Post: 7:59pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 FIFTEEN BLACK (ML=3/1)


FIFTEEN BLACK - We have lots of early speed with this horse. He could wire this field. I really like it when a horse's last morning work is at the same distance or longer than today's outing like this one's is. This speedball should be aided by this race's shorter distance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HOLY ROCKER (ML=7/2), #4 JUMP THE HORIZON (ML=4/1), #1 PACKET CAT (ML=5/1),

HOLY ROCKER - This horse hasn't been around in either of his last two races. JUMP THE HORIZON - I just don't possess a positive sensation about this mount in this clash. PACKET CAT - Can't play this mount in today's sprint of 4 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance affair lately. Didn't end up on the board on May 2nd at Gulfstream. Followed it up with another lackluster outing. The rating last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a vulnerable contender.




STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #8 FIFTEEN BLACK to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
8 with [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Louisiana Downs - Race #2 - Post: 3:15pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 PRIMAL WAY (ML=5/1)
#7 NELLIE FORBUSH (ML=15/1)


PRIMAL WAY - This rider and trainer's horses have been producing a positive ROI. Ran last race out against better company at Louisiana Downs. The move down in class should suit her well. This filly's last rating is high enough to win here, I'll play her back again this time out. NELLIE FORBUSH - This magnificent animal should be rumbling down the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BIENHEUREUX (ML=5/2), #1A SOUTHERN SHOT (ML=3/1), #3 KINGINTHECITY (ML=3/1),

BIENHEUREUX - Finished third in her most recent performance with a disappointing speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this group. This probable favorite may be out of condition without any recent works. SOUTHERN SHOT - The Brain always cautions me to keep away from horses in sprint races that haven't finished in the money in short distance races recently. This horse hasn't shown much in the last couple of races. KINGINTHECITY - This mare didn't race too well last time out.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - PRIMAL WAY - Advancing each step of the way, this noble animal has recorded significant increases in her speed figures over her last two events.




STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #5 PRIMAL WAY on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 9:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$3500 - FILLIES & MARES, CLAIMING $6,500, NW 1 RACE OR NW $20,000 LIFETIME. ALLOWANCES FOR AGE. ALSO ELIGIBLE: GIRLSGOTMACHZIE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 NINE DAYS 2/1



# 5 WINDSONG KARMA 4/1



# 1 MEGAPARFAITE 3/1



All signs point to NINE DAYS for the play. She's squaring off in good form, recording very strong TrackMaster speed figs. An excellent selection. With a very good 68 TrackMaster SR last time out, will more than likely be a factor in this race. Chances are greatly improved for standardbreds coming from the 4 slot at Rideau Carleton. WINDSONG KARMA - Had one of the most compelling TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the pack in her last race. Must use in your wagers. Reason to like this filly as she has in the bike one of the top drivers in win percentage the last 30 days. MEGAPARFAITE - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 67 TrackMaster SR. If performance in the most recent race is representative, this solid standardbred will have a very respectable shot in this race. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating.

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Del Mar

RACE #8 - DEL MAR THOROUGHBRED CLUB - 5:40 PM PACIFIC POST


The Oceanside Stakes

8.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#1 ARGYLE CUT
#9 ENTERPRISING
#10 TEXAS RYANO
#3 HOME SCHOOL

#1 ARGYLE CUT, a 9-2 shot, has hit the board in four straight starts, with his last two "board hit efforts," including a win in his 2nd race back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." #9 ENTERPRISING is the only entry in this stakes field not taking a step-up in class this afternoon, is the pace profile leader in this field racing at today's distance of a mile on the turf, and is a perfect 3-for-3 into "The Circle" racing at today's mile distance. Jockey Mike Smith and Trainer Thomas Proctor send him to the post for the "Opening Day Feature" ... they've hit the board with 52% of their entries saddled as a team to date.

Yonkers: Thursday 7/17 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS


MEET STATS: 208 - 781 / $1,302.30 BEST BETS: 16 - 65 / $63.00

Best Bet: LUCKY COLBY (2nd)

Spot Play: DOUBLE YOUR BET (7th)


Race 1

(4) TWIN B SPEEDO was sharp in victory last out at Pocono. The repeat is not out of the question. (5) EL BLOOMBITO moves down in class and Tetrick signs on to drive; threat. (2) SIR SAMS Z TAM closed well in his last try upstate.

Race 2

(6) LUCKY COLBY is on a tremendous roll and should keep on his winning ways. (5) BINGO QUEEN should fare better from the 5-hole. (1) ON THE PODIUM was second best in his latest.

Race 3

(3) IF I DIDNT CARE closed strongly to grab win honors last time around. Pacing mare is very capable of getting the job done once again. (1) SPRINGHOUSE STAR gets serious post relief to help her cause. (4) QUICKSILVERCANDY could have a say with these.

Race 4

(2) BIG BOY DREAMS put in a tough break in his last start. Sophomore does have a fondness for Yonkers and could make tonight a winning one with Bartlett at the helm. (1) IM ALL HEART & (1A) ALL BETS OFF makes a 1-2 punch for trainer Ron Burke; dangerous. (5) JENERAL PATTON completes the trifecta.

Race 5

(1) NEWPORT VOLO retains the rail slot and could boss these with a good trip. (4) HES LUCKY gets a better draw in here and picks up Sears; watch out. (3) TROTTIN TROY is knocking at the door.

Race 6

(3) IDEAL WILLIE draws much better in this event. Has every right to mow these down for all the marbles. (2) STIRLING CADILLAC was a good second in his last start upstate; player. (1) GOLDEN PARACHUTE is better than his last one.

Race 7

(4) DOUBLE YOUR BET has fine speed and fits well in here; down the road for all the glory. (2) MURDER HE WROTE just got up for win honors last time out; main danger. (3) ARCHETTO HANOVER put in a fine effort last out for the victory at Goshen.

Race 8

(1) BEAT THE BEAT is knocking at the winner's circle door. Ready to break it down tonight. (2) EVERYMILEAMEMORY put in a mild rally in her recent trip to the post. (4) YOU LITTLE RASCAL can grab a share of the purse.

Race 9

(2) STAY UP LATE got the job done in his last try. He is sharp enough to mow these down for his second straight score. (6) NEAT put in two good seconds in a row; big threat. (4) FORTY FIVE RED was sent down the road for the victory last time out.

Race 10

(4) GROUNDED gets class relief and that's a good sign that this pacing mare can get back to her winning ways. (5) VENUS DELIGHT put in a good effort from the 8-hole last time around. (2) GRACE SEELSTER is a speedy five-year-old that will take these as far as she can go.

Race 11

(5) KNOW IT ALL closed nicely for the show spot last time out. Pacing mare might be coming around and could move forward off that effort. (1) STAGE IT RIGHT gets serious post relief and Tetrick gets the call. (2) KAMWOOD LAUGHTHER N can make some noise from the two slot.

Race 12

(3) A AND GS DESIGN moves inside and that could be what she needs to take this; threat at her best. (4) BJS SWEETHEART went down the road to score at Harrington. That puts this gal right square in the mix. (2) SADIES PLACE is 0 for 20 this year but could be a factor with new driver Brennan.

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 10:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$12500 - F& M NON-WINNERS OF $6,000 IN LAST 6 STARTS WINNERS OVER $35,000 IN 2014 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. OPTIONAL CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $15,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 STAGE IT RIGHT 5/2



# 5 KNOW IT ALL 4/1



# 2 KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N 5/1



The selection here is STAGE IT RIGHT. The handicapping team has Tetrick on its list of drivers who are hot in recent times. Last 30 days win statistic is excellent. A respectable win statistic has been recorded by standardbreds coming from the 1 hole. KNOW IT ALL - The group knows that speed is King in harness racing. This solid standardbred will unlock our way to a nice top prize. A nice class horse shouldn't be be overlooked. With an avg class number of 89 all signs say this is the one to beat. KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N - Many bettors know speed is of the utmost importance. This standardbred has credentials with a 89 avg statistic. She has formidable class stats, averaging 89. Should be considered for a bet in this one.

Mohawk: Thursday 7/17 Analysis
By Greg Gangle

DRF HARNESS


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: DEMENTED (1st)

Spot Play: CALIPARI (2nd)



Race 1

(5) DEMENTED looks like the most logical option in here based on his recent success and remaining at this level. (9) NOBLE FLIGHT was timed in 1:53 4/5 in his latest and continues to hit the board in recent outings. (2) RAMZAM draws inside and comes from the Moreau barn. He enjoys leaving the gate and should benefit from an inside trip.

Race 2

(1) CALIPARI gets the rail in his favor, has back class and is fresh off a winning effort at the Meadowlands. (4) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT also found the wire in his most recent, comes from a high percentage barn and is capable of the class jump. (7) ZEUS LIGHTNING has hit the board in four of his last five starts and is a top threat for the triactor in this short field.

Race 3

(3) TRUTH IS BIG drops out of the Canadian Breeders and should be a main threat in this lower class. (7) RAMBLIN ROSE closed from last-to-fourth in her most recent and that sets her up very well for this contest. Don't expect 85-1 on her like last week. (6) BIG TREAT has hit the board in four of her last five starts and has developed a patented late kick.

Race 4

(5) MAJOR HANGOVER enters the Puddy barn, draws inside and is overdue for a win. (1) VAL DI NOTO draws inside and has hit the board in each of her last two starts in this maiden class. (4) OK GODIVA is fresh off two wins, comes from the Steacy barn and very capable of moving onto this circuit.

Race 5

(3) MAJESTIC GINGER draws inside and has won three straight this season, including last week in this class. (5) HOME TURF has won back-to-back contests, comes from the Henriksen barn and certainly can lower his speed on this oval. (10) DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR hasn't missed the board in three starts this season and has excellent gate speed to overcome post 10.

Race 6

(3) DOCS HOSS has been the king of this class for the past number of weeks as he's won three of his last four. (10) FOREGO THE CIGAR came from last-to-first in his most recent and may offer a fair price once again. (9) BEACH BUFF put forth a big effort last week and should offer a high price again to spice up the triactor.

Race 7

(8) SI SEMALU debuted for trainer Fletcher last week and found the wire at first asking. I'll back him again in this same level. (3) SUMMONS disappointed last week as the favorite and will look to rebound. (1) CAMBEC KINGCAZIMIR continues to be a threat in this class as he enjoys racing off a helmet and has hit the board in three of his last four.

Race 8

(6) ANAFFAIRTOREMEMBER has won two straight, is fresh off a career best and won at ease last week. (8) DOUBLEDOWN GASS also won last week in a new lifetime best. He has the speed and enjoys racing on or near the front. (9) FRIEND OR FOE continues to race at his best this season and is a prime candidate at this level.

Race 9

(5) DAYLON MAGICIAN is a classy veteran with over $1.6 million in back class. He returns home and qualified strong last week. (2) MEGO MOSS exits the Preferred class and draws inside. (3) CATCH THE DREAM has hit the board in four of his last five starts and shouldn't get overlooked for the triactor.

Race 10

(3) SHES DANGEROUS was impressive in last week's victory and is capable of the class jump. (9) A AND GS DELIGHT exits the Town Pro Series, comes from the Menary barn and faces much easier competition. (5) SHELLYSSILVERMOON has hit the board in two of her last three starts, has excellent gate speed and gets Davis, Jr. back aboard.

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Arlington (3rd) My Pal Paul, 7-2
(4th) Delago, 3-1


Belterra Park (2nd) Stormy Hot, 10-1
(7th) Royal Witch, 8-1


Canterbury (6th) Outoftheclouds, 9-2
(7th) Bad River Belle, 3-1


Charles Town (2nd) Call in Rich, 9-2
(5th) Royal Shaft, 10-1


Delaware Park (3rd) Fells Point, 9-2
(6th) Crossing, 4-1


Evangeline Downs (4th) Clodhopper, 6-1
(9th) Shay Parker B., 10-1


Del Mar (5th) Airfoil, 6-1
(10th) Godard, 5-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Check the Cites, 6-1
(9th) Amply Rewarded, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) One Hot Tomato, 5-1
(9th) The Pepto Express, 4-1


Indiana Grand (3rd) Pink Lipgloss, 3-1
(9th) Delta Golf Alpha, 10-1


Louisiana Downs (1st) Pep Rally Princess, 4-1
(6th) Dixie Disco, 7-2


Penn National (3rd) Twenty Black, 9-2
(6th) Vivaco, 7-2


Prairie Meadows (6th) I Use Tohave Money, 8-1
(7th) Commander's Girl, 3-1


Presque Isle Downs (1st) Song Ahead, 7-2
(5th) Wascally Rabbit, 7-2


Sacramento (5th) Nava Nataly, 9-2
(6th) She's a Charmer, 5-1

Jim Feist

CFL Comp Pick for Thursday, July 17, 2014: 8:35 PM ET

CFL (421) EDMONTON VS (422) WINNIPEG

Take: Over

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday is in the CFL Football game between Edmonton and Winnipeg. Big battle on the CFL gridiron on Thursday as the two unbeatens in the West will see is tops after this one. Both Edmonton and Winnipeg are a perfect 3-0 to start the season and while Calgary is arguably the best team right now at 2-0, these two clubs are right behind. And the oddsmaker has pretty much called this one even as they have installed Winnipeg as a 2 1/2 point home favorite, which is even on a neutral site. Which is why my Bonus Play is on the OVER here. Winnipeg has scored 115 points in three games (38.3 ppg), by far the most in the CFL thus far. Moreover, the Blue Bombers have gone OVER in eight of their last 11 home games and are 4-1 Over/Under in their last five games overall. Edmonton has been a great over road team, posting a 12-3-1 over/under/push mark in their last 16 away games. And they are 5-2 over/under their last seven overall. This one has the markings of a good old fashioned CFL shootout. Your Bonus Play is on the OVER.

Red Dog Sports

Bonus Play

WNBA Connecticut at Phoenix 10pm

Under 159

This is the last game before the WNBA All-Star Game. Last year there were all unders on the
last day. Connecticut has 8 unders in its last 10 while Phoenix has 6 unders in the last 8 and
the last 4 reached 168, 151, 138 and 136. These two played a 96-95 game earlier and the Sun
made 10 3's so I expect the Mercury to focus on better defense and they do have 6'8" Griner
inside. Bonus Play on under 159