Service Plays Thursday 7/17/14

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[h=1]Today's CFL Picks[/h] [h=2]Edmonton at Winnipeg[/h] The Eskimos head to Winnipeg on Thursday night where they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Blue Bombers. Winnipeg is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Bombers favored by 11 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

CFL

Week 4

Edmonton (3-0) @ Winnipeg (3-0)-- These teams were combined 7-29 LY, are 6-0 this year; both teams beat expansion Ottawa, which helps, but Eskimos scored 27-28-27 points in their first three games, with all three staying under total, while Bombers scored 38.3 ppg in its 3-0 start, with all three games going over. Edmonton won four of last five series games, winning in OT here LY- underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in last five series games played here. Eskimos are +7 in turnovers this season, with 11 takeaways in three games.

Steve's Golf Picks

BRITISH OPEN

Mikko Ilonen
Rickie Fowler
Luke Donald
Henrik Stenson
Paul Casey
Stephen Gallacher

Game of the Day: Eskimos at Blue Bombers

Edmonton Eskimos at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-2.5, 54.5)

The undefeated Edmonton Eskimos and Winnipeg Blue Bombers will battle for top spot in the West Division when the former visits the latter on Thursday. The Blue Bombers looked strong in their opening two home games, scoring 81 points with their surprising new-look offense. Edmonton is one win away from matching its 2013 total thanks to its revamped defense, which has 13 sacks and a league-leading eight interceptions.

Eskimos slotback Adarius Bowman could be on pace for a career year with 284 receiving yards and four touchdowns as quarterback Mike Reilly’s favorite target. Winnipeg quarterback Drew Willy engineered a last-minute touchdown drive to win Week 3 and looks comfortable in the starting role for the Blue Bombers. Facing an Edmonton defense that includes Aaron Grymes and Dexter McCoil - both with a pair of interceptions already - will be Willy’s toughest challenge yet.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Bombers as 2.5-point home faves. The total opened 55 and is down to 54.5.

INJURY REPORT: Bombers - SB Aaron Kelly (Out, knee)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "It's a battle of unbeatens as the Eskimos roll into Winnipeg on Thursday night. Something obviously has to give in this matchup, and at this point I believe it's Edmonton that's on slightly more solid ground. The Bombers have needed to come from behind to win their last two games, but can ill afford to let the Eskimos gain the early upper hand. Edmonton has a strong enough defense to frustrate the Bombers and should offer a significant challenge when you consider this is Winnipeg's first foray into the West Division this season." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (3-0): Defensive tackle Almondo Sewell leads the league with five sacks, while defensive end Odell Willis has three. Edmonton’s offensive line has also been strong, limiting opponents to seven sacks and giving Reilly the time he needs to make plays and throw a league-leading seven touchdown passes. Running back John White recorded 99 rushing yards in Week 3, eclipsing the 73 that Tyler Thomas amassed over the opening two contests.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (3-0): Winnipeg is still tweaking its roster, releasing former All-Star running back Will Ford on Monday after a preseason hamstring injury opened the door for Nic Grigsby to record 41 carries and 218 yards in three games. Linebacker Abraham Kromah was acquired from the Hamilton Tiger-Cats after starting the season on the injured list. Receiver Taveon Rogers announced via Twitter he signed with the Blue Bombers after spending time in the NFL with the Cincinnati Bengals.

TRENDS:

* Eskimos are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Blue Bombers last four games in July.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Eskimos last 16 road games.
* Eskimos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 59 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing the Bombers.

Blue Bombers-Eskimos line moves you need to know
Stephen Campbell

Per Pinnacle.com, the line for Thursday's CFL action between the Edmonton Eskimos and Winnipeg Blue Bombers is on the move.

The book opened the Bombers as -106 faves Monday, where they instantly moved to +100 dogs but presently sit as -112 home favorites. Winnipeg opened as -3 faves against the spread but are currently listed at -2.5.

The Open Championship Preview and Picks
Matt Fargo | Jul 15, 2014 |


We hit our third Major of the season with the 143rd edition of The Open Championship taking place from Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England. This is the 12th time Royal Liverpool has hosted The Open Championship with the last coming in 2006. That year it Tiger Woods who won by two shots over Chris DiMarco. His 270 aggregate score was the second lowest at an Open Championship since 1994 with Woods also owning the lowest, a 269 at St. Andrew's in 2000 when he won by eight shots.

Royal Liverpool was founded 145 years ago in 1869 and was redesigned early in the 20th century by Harry Colt. Along with St. Andrew's, it has been the only par 72 in the rotation since 1990 and this year is will play to a length of 7,312 yards which is only 54 yards longer than it was in 2006. Like any Open Championship venue, weather can be a huge factor even though conditions were benign here in 2006. Don't expect a repeat of that as winds are typically very strong off the sea and rain is in the forecast.

Of the last 22 Majors, there have been 18 different winners with Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson and Martin Kaymer being the only two-time Major winners. Not since 2008 has there been a repeat major winner. Padraig Harrington is the last player to do so, winning The Open Championship and PGA Championship back-to-back. It will be up to Kaymer this week to break that streak after capturing his second Major at the U.S. Open last month.

American players had won three straight Majors after Webb Simpson's victory at the 2012 U.S. Open but the American's went 0-4 in the next four. Since then though, U.S. players have captured three of the last four. History could be on their side as since 1995 at St. Andrews, Americans have won 12 of the 19 Open Championships. However, just two of the last seven winner have been Americans, Stewart Cink in 2009 and Phil Mickelson last year.
Phil Mickelson (+2,300) is the defending champion and there have been only two repeat champions since 1983, Tiger Woods in 2005 and 2006 and Padraig Harrington in 2007 and 2008. Mickelson came into last year with three top threes in his previous five starts but this year he has not played very well with not a single top 10 in his last 14 starts. He finished T22 here in 2006. Better options available.

Henrik Stenson (+1,800) is one of the favorites this week as he continues to play consistently. He has been in the top five in his last three starts at the Nordea Masters, the U.S. Open and the BMW International Open and has been T7 or better in five straight starts. His Open Championship record is not the best overall but he has a solo second and a pair of T3's over his last five starts.

Jason Day (+2,800) is still in search of his first Major and while the Open Championship has not treated him well, he has the mental game to get through the bad weather which he said he actually likes. His best finish at the Open Championship is a T30 back in 2011 but a T4 at the U.S. Open last month was his fifth top-four finish at a major, while he has seven top tens in 14 starts.

Rickie Fowler (+3,500) has been all over the place this year with his new swing but he has done exceptional at the big events. He finished third at the Accenture Match Play and followed that up with a T5 at the Masters and a T2 at the U.S. Open. His last start was last week at the Scottish Open where finished T8. He has a pair of top 15's at the Open Championship including a career best T5 in 2011.

Jamie Donaldson (+6,500) is coming off a missed cut at the Scottish Open last week but brings a lot to the table this week. He has two wins on the European Tour, one each in 2012 and 2013, and this year he has four top fives including a pair of runner-ups. While he missed the cut at the U.S. Open, he finished T14 at the Masters. He has made the cut here each of the last two years.

Mikko Ilonen (+8,500) is not going to be on many people's radar this week but he has been in excellent form. He won the Irish open last month, his fourth victory on the European Tour and his fourth top 10 this season. He has played in the Open Championship five times, making the cut in his last four starts. This includes a career best T9 in 2001 and a T16 when in was last played here in 2006.

Recommended Tournament Win Five Pack at The Open Championship (all for One Unit)
Henrik Stenson (+1,800)
Jason Day (+2,800)
Rickie Fowler (+3,500)
Jamie Donaldson (+6,500)
Mikko Ilonen (+8,500)

2014 Record to date after 26 events: -73 Units
Sony Open in Hawaii -5 Units
Humana Challenge -5 Units
Farmers Insurance Open -5 Units
Waste Management Phoenix Open -5 Units
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am +22 Units
Northern Trust Open -5 Units
WGC - Accenture Match Play +23 Units
Honda Classic -5 Units
WGC-Cadillac Championship -5 Units
Valspar Championship -5 Units
Arnold Palmer Invitational -5 Units
Valero Texas Open -5 Units
Shell Houston Open -5 Units
The Masters -7 Units
Zurich Classic -5 Units
Wells Fargo Championship -5 Units
THE PLAYERS Championship -5 Units
HP Byron Nelson Championship -5 Units
Crowne Plaza Invitational -5 Units
Memorial Tournament -5 Units
FedEx St. Jude Classic -5 Units
U.S. Open -6 Units
Travelers Championship -5 Units
Quicken Loans National -5 Units
Greenbrier Classic -5 Units
John Deere Classic -5 Units

Three ways golf bettors must adjust when wagering on Open Championship
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

The 143rd edition of the British Open Championship returns to Royal Liverpool in Hoylake, England for the 12th time this week and first since 2006 when Tiger Woods shot an 18-under, 270 to claim his third Claret Jug.

What makes the Open Championship so fascinating to watch is the tournament’s stark departure from virtually every other event on the golf calendar.

Lush, tree-lined fairways, tame weather and undulating greens are what we’re used to witnessing on a weekly basis in regards to tournaments played in the United States. Across the pond for the third Major Championship of the season, it’s a much different story.

As a result, bettors need to adjust their game plans to account for the myriad of environmental differences that occur when shifting from American golf to links golf.

Weather

Links golf is known for cloudy skies, high winds and precipitation, so you’ll want to keep an eye on golfers like Justin Rose (12/1), Graeme McDowell (25/1) and Sergio Garcia (20/1) - three Euros who grew up playing in these conditions and understand what it takes to emerge victorious in a harsh environment.

While Thursdays conditions look rather mild (high of 76 degrees, 7 mph winds, 10 percent chance of rain), expect Mother Nature to play a role beginning Friday, when the chance of rain rises to 40 percent and keeps climbing through the weekend. The key is to hit shots with a low trajectory and little spin.

Layout

Where courses like Augusta National reward bombers like Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson, the exact opposite is true regarding the Open.

Accuracy off the tee is of the utmost importance, as golfers will be severely penalized for wayward shots that find Royal Liverpools’ lethal rough, which is even more deadly when wet, and 82 bunkers. Take note that in Tiger’s 2006 win at this venue, the 14-time major winner hit driver just once over 72 holes.

And unlike the undulating, lighting-fast greens we see at every U.S. Open, the putting surfaces at Royal Liverpool are relatively flat and slow. These factors favor players like Henrik Stenson (15/1), Zach Johnson (50/1) and Keegan Bradley (80/1).

Experience

Be it in the form of Opens played or majors contended for, you’ll need experience to outlast the field in Hoylake.

Each of the last nine British Open champions had played in this tournament at least 10 times prior to their respective victories. Young guns without previous major successes and first-timers rarely make a serious splash at the Open, so you’ll want to target golfers like Adam Scott (12/1), Martin Kaymer (20/1) and perhaps even Ian Poulter (50/1), although news of his recent wrist injury is cause for concern.

CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
By David Schwab


The run from worst to first for both Winnipeg and Edmonton continued into Week 3 of the new CFL regular season. The Blue Bombers outlasted Montreal last Friday 34-33 as three-point road underdogs to remain perfect on the year at 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread. The total in that game went OVER the closing 48½-point line. The Eskimos improved to 3-0 SU with a 27-11 victory over Ottawa in Friday’s other game as five-point home favorites. That total stayed UNDER the 53-point line.

This past Saturday’s double-header started with Calgary running all over Toronto 34-15 as a two-point favorite on the road. The total stayed UNDER a closing betting line of 55 points in that contest. Week 3 closed things out with British Columbia snapping a two-game skid with a 26-13 victory over defending Grey Cup Champion Saskatchewan as a five-point underdog on the road. The total in this game also stayed UNDER with the closing line set at 51½ points.

Thursday, July 17

Edmonton Eskimos (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

Point-Spread: Winnipeg -3
Total: 55

Game Overview

The Eskimos are now just one win away from matching last season’s SU total behind a re-tooled defense that is allowing an average of just 18.3 points a game after giving-up close to 29 points a game in 2013. They also have the league’s third-leading passer in quarterback Mike Reilly (738 yards) and second- leading receiver in total yards in slotback Adarius Bowman. He has posted 284 yards on 21 receptions.

Winnipeg has already reached last season’s three-win total SU and it has been a perfect bet this season ATS. The Blue Bombers continue to light-up the scoreboard with a CFL-high 115 points behind quarterback Drew Willy. He threw for 256 yards and one touchdown in last Friday’s win over the Alouettes while completing 24-of-38 attempts.

Betting Trends

While Winnipeg was still a member of the East Division, it went 4-1 ATS against Edmonton in the last five meetings at home and the total has stayed UNDER in 11 of the last 16 meetings at Investors Group Field. The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 games between these two.

Friday, July 18

Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)

Point-Spread: Toronto -2½
Total: 52½

Game Overview

It has been a tale of two teams when it comes to the defending East Division Champs with a solid 33-point victory over Saskatchewan in Week 2 wrapped around losses to Winnipeg and Calgary by a combined 43 points. Argonauts’ quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in passing yards with 982 while completing an impressive 75.7 percent of his throws, but he is having a hard time keep pace with a Toronto defense that is allowing an average of 31.3 points a game. The league’s newest franchise has looked like an expansion team in its first two games, but that was to be expected. Longtime CFL veteran quarterback Henry Burris struggled against the Eskimos last week with 134 yards passing and no scores while completing just 52 percent of his throws. The RedBlacks have averaged 19.5 points in their first two games.

Betting Trends

With no head-to-head Betting Trends in this matchup, bettors may look at Toronto’s 13-4-1 record ATS in its last 18 road games as a key trend for Friday’s game. The total has gone OVER in five of the Argonauts last seven road games and it has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games following a SU loss.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

Point-Spread: Calgary – 9½
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Tiger-Cats enjoyed a much needed bye last week with the CFL’s new nine-team rotation after losing their first two games of the season SU. They did look much better in a tight four-point loss to Edmonton in Week 2 as opposed to 31-10 loss to Saskatchewan in their opener as 3½-point road underdogs. Quarterback Zach Collaros has been ruled out for this game with a lingering head injury.

Calgary could be the best balanced team in the CFL so far with an offense that has scored 63 points in two games complementing a defense that allowed a combined total of just 23 points to its opponents. Bo Levi Mitchell continues to look impressive as the Stampeders’ starting quarterback after lighting-up Toronto’s secondary for 267 yards passing and four touchdown throws in Week 3. Running back Jon Cornish remains questionable with a head injury as well.

Betting Trends

The Stampeders have won the last four meetings SU, but the series is tied at 2-2 ATS. The home team in this inter-division matchup is 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games.

Saturday, July 19

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Point-Spread: BC -5½
Total: 47½

Game Overview

Montreal is still looking for some better consistency on both sides of the ball after a 1-2 start that includes a lopsided loss to Calgary on opening day followed by a solid 15-point victory over BC in Week 2 as a three-point home underdog. The Alouettes racked-up 203 yards on the ground in that win against the Lions.

The Lions are another team searching for an early identity, but they have to be encouraged with last week’s victory. Kevin Glenn played his best game of the season with 170 yards passing and one touchdown throw while Andrew Harris had a big day on the ground with 138 yards rushing and a touchdown on 18 carries.

Betting Trends

Montreal has failed to cover the spread in 22 of the last 29 meetings and it is a costly 3-13 ATS in the last 16 games played in BC. The total in this matchup has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games at BC Place.

Ecks and Bacon

For Thursday E&B have some future wagers for the British Open.

Each wager is for $10.


(1) Adam Scott at 15-1

(2) Justin Rose at 18-1

(3) Dustin Johnson at 30-1

(4) Angel Cabrera at 50-1

(5) Francesco Molinari at 80-1

Ben lee is 174-200-5 -$2730

"Mr Chalk" is 50-36 -$242 for the first half of the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

Steve's Golf Picks

Steve's Picks

Mikko Ilonen 95 TO 1 - Ilonen has been on this list for a while now and is one of my favorite picks this week. No one is talking about him but if we have learned anything about the Open Championship, it is to expect the unexpected. Darren Clarke, Louis Oosthuizen, Stewart Cink, Todd Hamilton, and Ben Curtis have all won the Claret Jug in the past 12 years. No one gave them a chance at the beginning of the week but when the last putt fell in the hole on Sunday they were Open Champions. Mikko has a great chance of adding his name to that list of players no one talked about before hand (except us), and claimed the title.

Mikko is a Finnish golfer who currently sits 14th on the European Tour's Race to Dubai standings. He also is the 47th Ranked golfer in the world, and yet most people have never heard of him. Mikko has four European wins to his credit over his career and just won a few weeks ago at the Scottish Open. In 14 tournaments this season he has three Top 5 finishes, and enters in very good form. Last week at the Scottish Open he finished T16, with all four rounds be below 72. It should also be pointed out that in 2006 Mikko finished T16 at this very golf course, after opening with fabulous rounds of 68 and 69. Expect the unexpected.


Rickie Fowler 38 TO 1- Fowler has a great history on Links style golf courses and enters as the only player to finishes Top 5 in both of the seasons majors. Fowler is a terrific bunker player and he has the ability to flight the ball well, especially with his new swing. I must say that I have been very impressed with how quickly he has come around after the complete swing overhaul he undertook. It is an extremely difficult thing to do and many players never do recover when trying to change their swing.

Fowler finished 8th last week at the Scottish Open, his third straight Top 15 finish worldwide. This week it will come down to Fowler's ability to mentally withstand the difficult challenges Hoylake will set forth. He managed to do this admirably at this years US Open, though I have a feeling that was a far easier test than what the players will face in Scotland.
Luke Donald 50 TO 1 - The forgotten Englishman is on our list because he has one of the worlds best short games. It wasn't long ago that Donald was winning money titles and hailed as the best player in the world. Now we only seem to hear of him when a major comes around and analysts are asking when Luke, Lee or Ian will win a major. Players will be forced to deal with extremely tight lies around the greens, something that will give Luke no problems.
He also enters playing well, as last week at the Scottish Open he finished T16. Luke opened with an outstanding round of 67 and closed last week with another great round of 66. Sandwiched in between those two outstanding rounds were a 73 and a 72, but he still looked at the week as a great building block. In 2006 Luke didn't play all that well here (T35), but I have a good feeling about him this week.


Stephen Gallacher 70 TO 1 - The hometown golfer will have plenty of support on the course this week. Gallacher is enjoying a terrific season and had us all on the edge of our seat at The Masters this year until a 3rd round 81 derailed him. Stephen won earlier this season at the Dubai Desert Classic, and also has five other Top 10 finishes (including a T4 last week at the Scottish Open). Gallacher closed last week out with an amazing round of 63 on Sunday and will look to carry that momentum to Hoylake.

Gallacher does not get phased from playing in the spotlight and will be one of the players looking to embrace the moment this week. He played some of his best golf all year with Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy in his group. Gallacher is long off the tee as he averages just under 300 yards, but his strength is with the putter. Phil Mickelson made note of this in an interview earlier this year about how Stephen has turned a weakness in his game into a strength. That time and effort practicing will pay off this week for the Scotsman.


Paul Casey 45 TO 1 - Paul Casey is enjoying a great comeback season this year as he has 4 Top 25 finishes in just 7 starts on the European Tour this year. He has actually played more on PGA Tour, with 7 Top 25 finishes in 12 events. Casey is coming off a T14 finish at the Scottish Open thanks in large part to a final round 65. Casey loves playing links golf and will prove that this week. I do feel that Paul will need to avoid the one very high round, as that is what has plagued him in his Open Championship career.

Casey has achieved his excellent results this year thanks to his terrific iron play. He ranks just 125th for Driving Accuracy on the PGA Tour, but he is 88th on Tour for Greens in Regulation. He is also 25th for scoring average on the PGA Tour, showing that even when he doesn't have all the parts of his game on, he is still able to grind out a good round. Casey will do that this week in Scotland and be in contention on Sunday.


Henrik Stenson 16 TO 1 - Stenson is one of the top picks people are making heading into this Open Championship. Stenson finished T14 in this years Masters and T4 in this years US Open. His last 8 events counting towards the European Tour have all been Top 20's, and his last 5 have all been inside the Top 10. Stenson is one of the worlds best ball strikers, and should have an advantage if the winds do pick up. He has a piercing ball flight, and seems to rise to the top the more challenging an event gets.

Stenson currently ranks 5th on the European Tour for the Race to Dubai Standings and is the 2nd ranked golfer in the world. He has been the best player in the world for the past year and a half, and will continue his great play this week. It will come down to Stenson's ability to get up and down this week, as he is the best ball striker in the field (a case could be made for Adam Scott but I would go with Stenson). The Swede is at short odds, but this is for good reason.


HEAD TO HEAD

We have continued our excellent work in the HEAD to HEAD department and will once again go big on it.

4 UNITS ON Mikko Ilonen (+115) over Hunter Mahan - Ilonen enters playing great golf and will be brimming with confidence. Mahan on the other hand is playing some of the worst golf of his career in my opinion. His last Top 20 finish was at the WGC Cadillac Championship (March 6th 2014), and he has finished 50th or worse in 6 of his last 8 events. Take the talented 34 year old form Finland and enjoy telling your friends that you were one of the people who knew he was going to win this match and the Open Championship.

Brandon Watson

CFL

Winnipeg Blue Bombers -2.5

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Inspired By Grace in the 6th at Delaware (finished third) on Wednesday and likes Quinnkat in the 8th at Gulfstream ($25 win and place) on Thursday.

The deficit is 550 sirignanos.

Hondo

Hondo, who cashed in Minneapolis with the AL Tuesday night, gave a bit back Wednesday when Famous Dude didn’t abide, causing a minor boost in the debt to 1,220 gilchrists.

Thursday night: Mr. Aitch, making his first financial foray into the CFL, will kiss off the Eskimos for a 10-unit play on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers to win by at least three rouges — 10 units.

[h=1]WNBA Basketball Picks[/h] [h=2]Connecticut at Phoenix[/h] The Sun head to Phoenix tonight to face a Mercury team that is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-11 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

Gamblers Data

Bonus Plays Thursday CFL

Edmonton Eskimos +3

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | CHICAGO at INDIANA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 3.7 units )

WNBA | SAN ANTONIO at TULSA
Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (TULSA) after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season
25-10 since 1997. ( 71.4% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | CONNECTICUT at PHOENIX
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=76 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games
62-28 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.9% | 31.2 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% | 2.9 units )

SPORTSWAGERS

CFL

Edmonton +2½ over WINNIPEG

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.06)

The Montreal Alouettes have had a tough time moving five yards but what they did to Winnipeg last week should not be ignored as a poor outing for the Bombers. It emphasized Winnpeg's big time flaws that were already exposed. The Als scored 33 points and racked up 411 yards of total offense. They outgained Winnipeg in net yards by 105. It took Winnipeg two defensive TD’s, not to mention a third and goal from the 15-yard line late in the fourth, and a couple of fortuitous bounces to escape with a one point win in Montreal. The Bombers also fell behind 14-points to the Redblacks the previous week before another late rally. Winnipeg deserves credit for finding ways to win but you can’t keep giving up massive yards every week and expect to win. Not only is Winnipeg giving up big yards in the air, they are also getting torched on the ground. The Bombers defense is getting shredded and things get a lot tougher here against Edmonton. Additionally, Winnipeg QB Drew Willy is not getting protection. He’s had his clock rung many times already and he’s getting up slower with each hit. Willy is taking some serious punishment back there and at some point it’s going to take a physical toll. You might see Willy getting rid of the ball sooner than he wants to in an attempt to avoid those bruising hits. Finally, Winnipeg has scored 45, 36 and 34 points respectively in its three games so far. However, the first two games were against the league’s weakest defenses in Toronto and Ottawa. Last week against Montreal, Winnipeg’s offense scored 20 points with the defense accounting for 14. Indeed the Bombers are 3-0 but their bubble is on the verge of bursting.


Edmonton’s résumé isn’t better in terms of strength of competition, as they defeated a lethargic B.C team in Week 1, a horrible Hamilton team in Week 2 and a lifeless Ottawa team in Week 3. However, the Eskies play outstanding defense and in fact, has only allowed a total of 55 points against in three weeks. Edmonton’s front four leads the CFL in sacks and hurries and should absolutely overpower a Winnipeg pass protection that’s already caused Willy to be sacked 10 times. Offensively, Edmonton has scored 27, 28 and 27 points respectively and while that’s not going to get a win every week, it’s more than adequate and they figure to get even better. Quarterback Mike Reilly has completed 67.6 % of his passes for 738 yards with seven touchdowns against just two interceptions, leading to an impressive 100.8 passer rating. Edmonton has the better personnel. They are vastly superior on both lines and defensively it’s not even close. Offensively, we’re also suggesting that the Eskimos can match anything the Bombers can do but the difference is Mike Reilly is getting protection while Drew Willy is not. This league is not like the NFL and college where single points do not occur and two-point safeties are rare. They are common in this league and that makes these 2½-points worth taking as oppose to playing Edmonton on the money line. We’re calling the upset but will take the points.