[h=1]Risers and fallers of the AFC[/h][h=3]Texans could turn things around, but Chiefs might run out of luck[/h]
By Rivers McCown | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Ah, training camp, where hope springs eternal in the NFL. More than in any other sport, teams can rapidly climb up the standings, or just as rapidly collapse -- thanks to lots of player movement between seasons, lots of variation in player performance, and the small sample size of just 16 games. We've considered all of these things to give you a look at which teams we think are most likely to improve in the 2014 season and which are most likely to decline.
[h=3]Risers[/h]
Houston Texans
Houston's rebound potential banks on three factors: Jadeveon Clowney, poor luck in 2013 and a terrific schedule in 2014. As Bill Barnwell pointed out for Grantland, the Texans fared poorly in a number of luck-based statistics in 2013. By point differential, they should've won four games rather than two. They went 2-9 in one-touchdown games. They had a league-worst minus-20 turnover margin -- the last two teams to have a ratio that high, the 2012 Eagles and 2012 Chiefs, finished at plus-14 and plus-19, respectively, the year after. Erase all those Matt Schaub pick-sixes and the Texans might have been pedestrian rather than awful last season. Mix in better luck with an improved pass rush, plus the schedule we have projected as the easiest in the league, and Houston should hover closer to six or seven wins in 2014. Yes, even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. (The Texans will improve even if Andre Johnson goes elsewhere … technically, 3-13 is an improvement on 2-14, right?)
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Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers, too, have drawn a weak schedule this season. We have them with the third-easiest projected opponent slate, mostly thanks to games against the AFC South and in-division games against an AFC North that might be surprisingly mediocre. Another factor that weighs heavily is the improvement of their offensive line. The Steelers allowed 35 sacks in the first 10 weeks of the season but just seven in the last seven weeks. A healthy Maurkice Pouncey will only help things there. Finally, the Pittsburgh defense is also projected to rebound. Pittsburgh's 19th-place finish in defensive DVOA is its lowest since we started keeping track of the stat. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.) The Steelers should be able to cobble things together a little more than they did in 2013, and that could boost them into the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
Unlike the Steelers and the Texans, we aren't giving the Bills a gigantic schedule boost. However, the system is projecting a sizable improvement from the Buffalo offense thanks to the sheer amount of young talent GM Doug Whaley has put in place. Our research shows that quarterbacks generally take their biggest step forward in their second season. As much as the amount Buffalo paid to move up and get Sammy Watkins was ridiculous, it should help transfer the other young players into roles they are more able to play. Robert Woods can be the sure-handed No. 2 possession receiver, and Marquise Goodwin can be a slot play-action bomb specialist. We're projecting a little regression on defense -- the injury to Kiko Alonso makes this even more likely -- but it's probably not enough to drag Buffalo out of the fringes of the AFC playoff race. It's a fairly weak field, so an improved Manuel might be enough to get the Bills a wild-card berth.
[h=3]Fallers[/h]
Kansas City Chiefs
What didn't go right for the Chiefs in 2013? Kansas City had, by our numbers, the easiest schedule in the NFL. It also had, by far, the healthiest year of any team in the NFL last season. We rated its defense 30th in the NFL in 2012, and saw it rise to ninth in DVOA in 2013. Although the Chiefs undoubtedly have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball still, any regression-based projection system is going to look at 2012 and knock them down a few pegs. We have also projected them with the second-hardest schedule in the league this season. Kansas City did nothing to solve its major problem last season: a lack of weapons not named Jamaal Charles or Dwayne Bowe. Andy Reid and the defense might keep the Chiefs from free-falling, but they're more likely to win seven games than they are to make a return trip to the playoffs.
New York Jets
Remember the Pythagorean wins concept we touched on in the Houston section? The Jets were the luckiest 8-8 team ever by that statistic -- their point differential was that of a 5.4-win team. The Jets didn't know how to lose close. They either pulled out a tight win (5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less) or got completely annihilated. The average Jets loss last season was by 18.75 points, the biggest differential in the NFL. Our projections are still pretty high on New York's defense and special teams. But the additions of Eric Decker, Michael Vick, and Chris Johnson probably aren't going to elevate the Jets' offense enough to sniff league-average, and this team's upside is limited without that. Of course, if they were in the AFC South, they'd be a dark horse to win the division.
Miami Dolphins
As Cian Fahey has pointed out, the Dolphins are coming into the season with a stable of linebackers that played poorly last season. They also signed Cortland Finnegan to a mind-boggling two-year, $11 million deal with $5.5 million in guarantees. In our game charting project, Finnegan finished with a brutal 34 percent success rate in coverage last season. He would have been the worst corner in the NFL if he hadn't gotten hurt early enough to miss qualifying for our seasonal rankings. Mix that with Dion Jordan's suspension and the possibility that Cameron Wake's decline has started and you have a recipe for defensive regression. Finally, although Miami did what it had to do by cutting out most of its poisonous offensive line, offensive line continuity is a big positive factor in our projections. Mike Pouncey's hip labrum tear makes it likely the Dolphins will start the season with five linemen who have never played together. Although they'd be hard-pressed to be less talented than the 2013 line, the lack of time together could make them play below their skill. For those reasons, we see Miami as a likely bottom-of-the-division team rather than the wild-card contender it was in 2013.
By Rivers McCown | Football Outsiders
ESPN INSIDER
Ah, training camp, where hope springs eternal in the NFL. More than in any other sport, teams can rapidly climb up the standings, or just as rapidly collapse -- thanks to lots of player movement between seasons, lots of variation in player performance, and the small sample size of just 16 games. We've considered all of these things to give you a look at which teams we think are most likely to improve in the 2014 season and which are most likely to decline.
[h=3]Risers[/h]
Houston Texans
Houston's rebound potential banks on three factors: Jadeveon Clowney, poor luck in 2013 and a terrific schedule in 2014. As Bill Barnwell pointed out for Grantland, the Texans fared poorly in a number of luck-based statistics in 2013. By point differential, they should've won four games rather than two. They went 2-9 in one-touchdown games. They had a league-worst minus-20 turnover margin -- the last two teams to have a ratio that high, the 2012 Eagles and 2012 Chiefs, finished at plus-14 and plus-19, respectively, the year after. Erase all those Matt Schaub pick-sixes and the Texans might have been pedestrian rather than awful last season. Mix in better luck with an improved pass rush, plus the schedule we have projected as the easiest in the league, and Houston should hover closer to six or seven wins in 2014. Yes, even with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. (The Texans will improve even if Andre Johnson goes elsewhere … technically, 3-13 is an improvement on 2-14, right?)
<OFFER></OFFER>
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers, too, have drawn a weak schedule this season. We have them with the third-easiest projected opponent slate, mostly thanks to games against the AFC South and in-division games against an AFC North that might be surprisingly mediocre. Another factor that weighs heavily is the improvement of their offensive line. The Steelers allowed 35 sacks in the first 10 weeks of the season but just seven in the last seven weeks. A healthy Maurkice Pouncey will only help things there. Finally, the Pittsburgh defense is also projected to rebound. Pittsburgh's 19th-place finish in defensive DVOA is its lowest since we started keeping track of the stat. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.) The Steelers should be able to cobble things together a little more than they did in 2013, and that could boost them into the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
Unlike the Steelers and the Texans, we aren't giving the Bills a gigantic schedule boost. However, the system is projecting a sizable improvement from the Buffalo offense thanks to the sheer amount of young talent GM Doug Whaley has put in place. Our research shows that quarterbacks generally take their biggest step forward in their second season. As much as the amount Buffalo paid to move up and get Sammy Watkins was ridiculous, it should help transfer the other young players into roles they are more able to play. Robert Woods can be the sure-handed No. 2 possession receiver, and Marquise Goodwin can be a slot play-action bomb specialist. We're projecting a little regression on defense -- the injury to Kiko Alonso makes this even more likely -- but it's probably not enough to drag Buffalo out of the fringes of the AFC playoff race. It's a fairly weak field, so an improved Manuel might be enough to get the Bills a wild-card berth.
[h=3]Fallers[/h]
Kansas City Chiefs
What didn't go right for the Chiefs in 2013? Kansas City had, by our numbers, the easiest schedule in the NFL. It also had, by far, the healthiest year of any team in the NFL last season. We rated its defense 30th in the NFL in 2012, and saw it rise to ninth in DVOA in 2013. Although the Chiefs undoubtedly have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball still, any regression-based projection system is going to look at 2012 and knock them down a few pegs. We have also projected them with the second-hardest schedule in the league this season. Kansas City did nothing to solve its major problem last season: a lack of weapons not named Jamaal Charles or Dwayne Bowe. Andy Reid and the defense might keep the Chiefs from free-falling, but they're more likely to win seven games than they are to make a return trip to the playoffs.
New York Jets
Remember the Pythagorean wins concept we touched on in the Houston section? The Jets were the luckiest 8-8 team ever by that statistic -- their point differential was that of a 5.4-win team. The Jets didn't know how to lose close. They either pulled out a tight win (5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less) or got completely annihilated. The average Jets loss last season was by 18.75 points, the biggest differential in the NFL. Our projections are still pretty high on New York's defense and special teams. But the additions of Eric Decker, Michael Vick, and Chris Johnson probably aren't going to elevate the Jets' offense enough to sniff league-average, and this team's upside is limited without that. Of course, if they were in the AFC South, they'd be a dark horse to win the division.
Miami Dolphins
As Cian Fahey has pointed out, the Dolphins are coming into the season with a stable of linebackers that played poorly last season. They also signed Cortland Finnegan to a mind-boggling two-year, $11 million deal with $5.5 million in guarantees. In our game charting project, Finnegan finished with a brutal 34 percent success rate in coverage last season. He would have been the worst corner in the NFL if he hadn't gotten hurt early enough to miss qualifying for our seasonal rankings. Mix that with Dion Jordan's suspension and the possibility that Cameron Wake's decline has started and you have a recipe for defensive regression. Finally, although Miami did what it had to do by cutting out most of its poisonous offensive line, offensive line continuity is a big positive factor in our projections. Mike Pouncey's hip labrum tear makes it likely the Dolphins will start the season with five linemen who have never played together. Although they'd be hard-pressed to be less talented than the 2013 line, the lack of time together could make them play below their skill. For those reasons, we see Miami as a likely bottom-of-the-division team rather than the wild-card contender it was in 2013.
