STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, JULY 19th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 7/19/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #16
The Major League Baseball season has hit the turn and is heading toward home with the All-Star break in the rearview. This is the time when the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, and sportsbooks online and in Nevada start picking their favorites. We asked books to reveal which teams their cheering against – according to the liability of the futures market – and why these clubs could do some damage if they win the World Series.
•San Francisco Giants (52-43, second in NL West)
The Giants started strong and drew a lot of action, especially with some sportsbooks pricing San Francisco as high as 30/1 to win the World Series back in April. San Francisco went 16-11 in April and followed that with a sterling 16-9 record in May. It came crashing to earth with a 10-16 June and is on a 6-7 skid heading into the second half of the schedule.
“In March, we took a lot of action on the Giants at 20/1,” Mike Perry, of Sportsbook.ag, tells StatSystems Sports. “I think that many bettors remember that in recent years, San Fran has been one of the better teams after the All-Star break, and are banking on another strong second half of the season from them.”
•Milwaukee Brewers (53-43, first in NL Central)
The Brewers are one of the biggest surprises so far this baseball season. Milwaukee, slotted as a 10/1 long shot to win the National League Central and projected to win around 79.5 games, exploded out of the gate with a 19-8 record in the first month of the season. Things have definitely cooled off for the Brew Crew, posting a 2-10 mark in July so far. That’s makes books happy.
“We had one player come in and bet them when we first put them up at 80/1 (to win World Series),” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas told us. “A guy came in and wanted to bet them to win like half a million. Was like $6,200 or something. We didn’t let him bet that, we had to cut him back a bit.”
•Baltimore Orioles (52-42, first in AL East)
Baltimore has capitalized on a down year in the American League East. Boston is suffering a World Series hangover, New York and Toronto can’t stay healthy, and Tampa Bay is swinging a limp noodle at the plate. The Orioles have been on the up for the past few seasons but books still opened the Orioles at long odds to win the World Series, which has them sweating a bit as the summer heats goes up.
“The first week of June we had the Orioles at 50/1 to win the World Series, and that is the main reason we are exposed on them,” says Perry.
•Seattle Mariners (51-44, third in AL West)
The Mariners have the pitching to get the job done in October, but it will be up to their bats if the team gets there or not. Seattle, hitting .245 BA at the break, is eight games behind Oakland in the American League West but in the hunt for a wild card spot. They were as high as 75/1 in Las Vegas, where books have trimmed that price to 20/1.
“I think they’re like second or third in run differential in the AL,” says Stoneback, a Mariners fan pulled between the futures liability on Seattle. “But they hit like .250 with runners in scoring position and only like .240 overall on the season.”
**Bonus Note: The Chicago Cubs are among the biggest liabilities to the futures book, both at online and Nevada markets. Chicago was 100/1 to win the World Series to start the season and is now 1,000/1, but still draws action from Cubs fans blindly betting their favorite team.
Fridays’ MLB Roundup
-- CC Sabathia To Have Season-Ending Surgery On Tuesday: The Yankees have announced that CC Sabathia will have season-ending arthroscopic knee surgery on July 23. It is not micro-fracture surgery, as many were speculating he needed, but is more of a procedure to clean out his right knee. Sabathia, who started the season in The Best Shape of His Life, was 3-4 with a 5.28 ERA in eight starts this season. He hasn’t pitched since May. He is being paid $23 million this season and is owed at least another $23 million in 2015 and $25 million in 2016, plus a $5 million buyout of a vesting 2018 option
-- Mariners Taijuan Walker Is Once Again At Center Of David Price Trade Talks: The Rays are said to have talked to the Mariners about pitching prospect Taijuan Walker plus two or three other top young players in talks involving pitcher David Price, league sources said. Talks are ongoing and fluid, and deals being discussed could include just Price from Tampa Bay, Price plus Ben Zobrist or Zobrist alone. It's all thought to be in the early stages, and Tampa's requests are not necessarily unreasonable for an ace such as Price, who is on a major hot streak and leads the AL in strikeouts and innings. Tampa hasn't yet definitively signaled that it would even trade Price yet, as it isn't that far off the pace in a surprisingly unimposing AL East.
The Mariners are loaded with top prospects, including D.J. Peterson, one of the best hitters in the minors, and left-handed pitcher James Paxton, who pitched a rehab start last night. Tampa is believed interested in those players as well. The inclusion of Walker in talks is no surprise, as he was the key name this winter when those very same teams talked about Price. Eventually, the Mariners said no, as they were hesitant to part with Walker at the time, and Price's agent Bo McKinnis told Ken Rosenthal that Price preferred not to go so far as Seattle and wouldn't sign an extension with the Mariners. Things may have changed for Seattle, which is now ensconced in the AL wild-card race.
Scouts are expected at Walker's start Friday night for Triple-A Tacoma at Reno. He's pitched pretty well since returning from a spring shoulder concern and is considered a potential top of the rotation starter. The Rays are said to have had two scouts at their Double-A game Thursday against the Mariners' Double-A Jackson team, at Montgomery, Ala., though Tampa may have been scouting its own players, as well as Seattle's other coveted prospects include shortstop Chris Taylor, pitchers Edwin Diaz, Luis Gohara and Victor Sanchez, outfielder/third baseman Pat Kivleham and catcher Tyler Marlette. The Mariners might be willing to include shortstop Brad Miller in a deal since Jackson has emerged as a huge prospect. Tampa has had a long-term interest in catching, but Seattle has said it will not trade its catcher Mike Zunino.
-- Huston Street To Angels Trade Agreed Upon: A trade that will send All-Star closer Huston Street to the Angels has been agreed upon, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. It'll be Street and one Padres minor-leaguer for four prospects. The trade won't be official until the Padres and Angels games are concluded Friday night. Taylor Lindsey is one of the prospects who will be headed back to the Padres, reports Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Other reports are surfacing that R.J. Alvarez and Jose Rondon are also headed to San Diego.
Street, 30, has converted 24 of 25 save opportunities this season with a 1.09 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 34 strikeouts against only seven walks in 33 innings pitched. A closer since his rookie year -- when he won the AL Rookie of the Year -- Street has saved 258 games in 300 chances (86 percent) in his career with a 2.87 ERA (148 ERA+). He's a two-time All-Star. Street is also familiar with the AL West, having spent the first four seasons of his career with the Athletics. The move puts Street in the closer role with Joe Smith, Kevin Jepsen and the recently-acquired Jason Grilli (1.29 ERA since the trade) possible setup options.
The Angels entered Friday night with the second-best record in all of the majors, but, among AL teams, only the Astros, White Sox and A's had blown more saves. Lindsey, 22, is hitting .247/.323/.400 with 13 doubles, four triples, eight homers, 30 RBI, 50 runs and seven steals in 75 games for Triple-A Salt Lake this season. He was a sandwich pick in the 2010 draft (37th overall) and was ranked as the 93rd best prospect in baseball by Baseball America heading into this season. He has only played second base or DH in the minors. Rondon is a 20-year-old shortstop who is hitting .327/.362/.418 with 17 doubles, 5 triples, zero homers, 24 RBI, 40 runs and eight steals in High-A. Alvarez is a 23-year-old right-handed reliever. He has a 0.33 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 38 strikeouts in 27 innings at Double-A this season.
-- Cliff Lee To Rejoin Phillies Rotation Monday: Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee has been scheduled to return to the mound from the disabled list Monday against San Francisco, the club told reporters Friday. Lee, 35, hasn't started for the Phillies since May 18, as an elbow issue shelved him. He has made three rehab starts and is ready to return. In his three rehab starts, Lee had a 5.16 ERA and 1.41 WHIP for High-A Clearwater. His last outing came Monday, when he allowed eight runs (three earned) on eight hits. He insists he's ready to go, though.
“I feel strong and I feel good and I'm ready to try to help the team win,” Lee said. The funny thing about that statement is that Lee might not be helping the Phillies try to win for long. His timing for a return means he can get two starts under his belt before the final week of trading activity in front of the July 31 non-waiver deadline. In 10 big-league starts this year, Lee is 4-4 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 61 strikeouts against only nine walks in 68 innings. With his track record, he's easily qualified to be called a frontline pitcher for anyone who might swing a deal for him. Lee is set to make $25 million next season before a $27.5 million vesting option in 2016, that is tied to innings pitched in 2015.
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Betting Notes - Saturday
National League
•Dodgers-Cardinals - 4:05 PM
--Greinke is 2-1, 2.45 in his last three starts.
--Kelly is 1-1, 4.42 in four starts this season.
--Dodgers lost four of their last five road games.
--St Louis won six of its last eight games.
--Five of last six Dodger games stayed under the total.
•Rockies-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Anderson is 0-3, 6.75 in four starts this season.
--Morton is 1-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.
--Rockies lost ten of their last eleven road games.
--Pittsburgh is 10-2 in last twelve home games.
--Over is 13-6-1 in Colorado's last twenty road games.
•Brewers-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Garza is 2-1, 2.31 in his last three starts.
--Gonzalez is 3-1, 1.30 in his last four starts.
--Milwaukee lost 11 of its last 14 games.
--Washington won ten of its last fifteen games.
--Five of last seven Brewer games went over the total.
•Giants-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Hudson is 0-4, 6.67 in his last five starts.
--Alvarez is 4-1, 2.07 in his last ten starts.
--Giants won three of their last four games.
--Miami lost six of its last seven games.
--14 of last 21 Marlin games went over the total.
•Phillies-Braves - 7:10 PM
--Hamels is 2-2, 2.19 in his last nine starts.
--Wood is 0-1, 4.92 in his last three starts.
--Phillies lost their last three games.
--Atlanta won six of its last seven home games.
--Nine of last twelve Philly games went over the total.
•Cubs-Diamondbacks - 8:10 PM
--Wood is 1-3, 6.84 in his last five starts.
--Miley is 2-0, 1.25 in his last three starts.
--Cubs lost nine of their last eleven games.
--Arizona lost 18 of its last 30 games.
--Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Cub games.
•Mets-Padres - 8:40 PM
--Gee is 3-0, 1.33 in his last four starts.
--Ross is 1-3, 1.55 in his last four starts.
--Mets won eight of their last nine games.
--San Diego lost eight of its last ten games.
--16 of last 22 San Diego games stayed under.
American League
•Rangers-Blue Jays - 1:05 PM
--Lewis allowed 13 runs in 2.1 IP in his last start.
--Stroman is 1-0, 3.20 in his last four starts.
--Rangers lost 23 of their last 28 games.
--Toronto lost eight of its last ten games.
--Five of last seven Texas road games went over the total.
•Indians-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Kluber is 3-1, 1.93 in his last four starts. McCallister is 0-5, 6.60 in his last seven starts.
--Tigers won last four Scherzer starts (3-0, 1.60); Rice alum Ver Haken is making MLB debut; he is 6-7, 3.67 in 19 AAA starts this year.
--Indians won seven of their last ten games.
--Detroit won five of its last seven games.
--Seven of last eight Detroit home games went over total.
•Royals-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Duffy is 1-4, 2.93 in his last five starts.
--De La Rosa is 1-0, 1.89 in his last three starts.
--Royals lost seven of their last ten games.
--Boston won five of its last six games.
--Six of last nine Kansas City games stayed under.
•Rays-Twins - 7:10 PM
--Price is 4-0, 1.41 in his last four starts.
--Correia is 1-2, 2.37 in his last three starts.
--Tampa Bay won nine of its last ten road games.
--Twins won five of their last seven games.
--Eight of last eleven Tampa Bay games went over total.
•Astros-White Sox - 7:10 PM
--Keuchel is 1-2, 6.57 in his last four starts.
--Noesi is 1-3, 5.82 in his last six starts.
--Astros won three of last four road games, after losing 10 of previous 11.
--White Sox lost four of their last six games.
--Seven of last ten Houston games went over the total.
•Mariners-Angels - 9:05 PM
--Hernandez is 3-0, 1.69 in his last four starts (2-0, 2.45 vs. Angels in '14).
--Richards is 7-0, 1.27 in his last eight starts.
--Seattle won seven of its last ten road games.
--Angels won 13 of their last 15 games.
--Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Mariner games.
•Orioles-Athletics - 9:05 PM
--Chen is 2-1, 5.72 in his last five starts.
--Hammel is 2-1, 3.55 in his last four starts.
--Baltimore won five of its last seven road games.
--A's won 12 of their last 13 home games.
--Under is 7-2-3 in last twelve Oakland games.
Interleague
•Reds-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Reds are 15-3 in Simon starts (6-0, 2.62 in last eight).
--McCarthy is 2-1, 3.26 in his last three starts.
--Cincinnati won seven of its last ten games.
--Yankees lost seven of its last nine home games.
--Under is 7-2-1 in last ten New York home games.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Greinke 11-8; Kelly 2-2
-- Anderson 1-3; Morton 9-10
-- Garza 10-9; Gonzalez 9-5
-- Hudson 11-6; Alvarez 13-6
-- Hamels 6-10; Wood 4-7
-- Wood 10-9; Miley 10-10
-- Gee 5-4; Ross 8-12 (1-7 last 8)
-- Lewis 8-8; Stroman 3-5
-- McCallister 5-6 (1-6 last seven), Kluber 12-8; Scherzer 14-5, Ver Hagen 0-0
-- Duffy 5-8; de la Rosa 3-3
-- Price 12-8; Correia 6-13
-- Keuchel 10-7; Noesi 6-8
-- Hernandez 14-6 (won last four); Richards 15-4 (won last eight)
-- Chen 11-7; Hammel 10-7/0-1
-- Simon 15-3; McCarthy 4-14/1-0
•Umpires Trends
-- LA-StL-- Under is 9-4 in last thirteen Kulpa games.
-- Col-Pitt-- Seven of last nine TWelke games stayed under.
-- Mil-Wsh-- Five of last six Carapazza games stayed under.
-- SF-Mia-- Favorites won ten of last twelve Segal games.
-- Phil-Atl-- Five of last seven Little games stayed under.
-- Chi-Az-- Over is 5-3 in Joyce games this season.
-- NY-SD-- Five of last seven HGibson games stayed under.
-- Tex-Tor-- Favorites won five of last six Tumpane games.
-- Cle-Det-- Five of last six Barry games stayed under. Seven of last nine Everitt games went over.
-- KC-Bos-- Home side won last six Barksdale games; last three stayed under.
-- TB-Min-- Last five Dimuro games went over total.
-- Hst-Chi-- Nine of last eleven O'Nora games stayed under.
-- Sea-LA-- Five of last six Morales games went over.
-- Balt-A's-- Over is 6-1-2 in last nine Emmel games.
-- Cin-NY-- Eight of last eleven Nauert games stayed under.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has been red hot and the 3-0 record in his last five starts with two No Decisions speaks to why many consider him to be the best pitcher in the American League. Unders are also 7-2-1 in King Felix's last ten starts as the Mariners ace continues to frustrate batters, something that the high powered Angels lineup hopes won't happen to them in a highly anticipated Saturday affair.
Diamond Trends - Saturday
•TEXAS is 1-13 (-14.9 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was TEXAS 3.8, OPPONENT 7.4.
•MILWAUKEE is 15-2 UNDER (+12.4 Units) in road games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 2.9, OPPONENT 2.9.
•MINNESOTA is 2-15 (-15.9 Units) against the run line versus an American League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 3.5, OPPONENT 6.2.
•ALFREDO SIMON is 16-1 (+16.4 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was SIMON 4.5, OPPONENT 2.2.
•WADE MILEY is 10-1 UNDER (+8.9 Units) versus National League teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILEY 3.0, OPPONENT 2.8.
•GARRETT RICHARDS is 13-3 (+11.1 Units) against the run line versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season.
The average score was RICHARDS 5.0, OPPONENT 3.1.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season - American League.
(54-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.1%, +39.9 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -128.2
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 3.2 (Average run differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1, +3.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-7, +21.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (151-88, +34.2 units).
•Play Against - All teams against a run line of (+1.5, -155) to (-1.5, +135) (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games.
(55-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.1%, +38.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (43-24 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.3, money line price: -139
The average score in these games was: Team 5.4, Opponent 4.1 (Average run differential = +1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 42 (62.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (13-2, +10.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-4, +19.7 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (161-99, +10.3 units).
•Play Under - All teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (CINCINNATI) - National League team with a low on-base percentage (<=.350) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP <=1.350), starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest.
(111-57 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.1%, +47.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 8.3, Money Line=-112.1
The average score in these games was: Team 3.6, Opponent 3.8 (Total runs scored = 7.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 91 (54.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-3, +1.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (68-31, +33 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (256-233, -3.8 units).
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w-thumbs!^
