[h=1]Offseason 2014 QB Big Board[/h][h=3]After studying the tape from 2013, Jaws ranks Peyton Manning No. 1[/h]
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Ron Jaworski[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
For some people, the offseason is a time to soak up the sun and work on their short game. But in my office, it's a time to pore over the previous season's film.
Since the Seattle Seahawks steamrolled the Denver Broncos 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII, I've gone over every throw from every quarterback in the NFL to properly evaluate the best 32 on my QB Big Board.
Despite a bad performance in that Super Bowl, Peyton Manning remains No. 1 on my board. But there is a lot of movement elsewhere.
Here's my preseason look at the top 32 quarterbacks in the NFL:
Note: There are no rookies on this list, as none have won starting jobs yet. The previous ranking referred to in each entry is from last season's final ranks in December. This list will update throughout the season, or before if starting jobs change.
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1. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Previous: 1
People are going to question Manning's performance in Super Bowl XLVIII, but the Seattle defense muddied the pocket, took away his quick throws and hit him repeatedly. That defense can make any quarterback look average. As mycolleague Jeff Legwold detailed last week, Manning has watched the film meticulously and made adjustments. If Denver plays Seattle again, he'll be ready.
But singling out that game loses sight of the bigger picture for two reasons: Manning had the greatest season for a quarterback in NFL history in 2013, and he's fundamentally changed the way that quarterback is played in the NFL.
I played quarterback in the NFL for 17 years and have been a commentator for 24, and after my film study, I couldn't even figure out some of the pre-snap checks he was making. Everyone is chasing Peyton right now.
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2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Previous: 2
The argument between Manning and Brady will go on well after each has finished his Hall of Fame career. I still believe that Joe Montana is the greatest quarterback ever, but that could change if Brady or Manning win a couple more titles in the coming years. Brady is amazing in the clutch, and his winning persona really spreads to the whole team. He's terrific in the pre-snap phase, identifying what a defense is doing, he can move people with his eyes, and his mechanics and accuracy are second to none.
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3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Previously: 3
Rodgers may get the ball out of his hands quicker than any quarterback in the league right now. He is probably the best off-platform thrower in the NFL and doesn't need functional space to make a downfield throw. Rodgers understands coverages and can torch defenses with his legs, both running the ball and eluding rushers in the pocket. He has elite arm strength and, like Brady, pinpoint accuracy. There really aren't any holes in his game right now.
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4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Previously: 4
What impresses me most about Brees is the way he practices -- with game-day intensity. He's also brilliant in the pre-snap phase of the game. I love the marriage of Sean Payton as a playcaller and Brees behind center. They think the same way in terms of exploiting defenses and creating mismatches in space. Brees has everything you want in a quarterback except the size, but he's mastered his ability to find passing lanes, pick his chin up and throw on his toes.
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5. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Previously: 7
Luck cracks the top five for the first time on my Big Board, and I expect him to keep rising. One of the supposed questions for him was his arm strength, but let me tell you: I have zero concerns with his arm strength. Luck has a great touch and throws the ball only as hard as he needs to. With only 35 starts in the NFL, he's already an elite quarterback and a refined progression reader. At 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, he's big enough to run people over and fast enough to extend plays and get to the edge. He showed off all those attributes and his leadership in that improbable 45-44 wild-card comeback win against the Chiefs. The sky is the limit for this kid.
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6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Previously: 5
Pittsburgh's 8-8 record may not be what fans expect from the Steelers, but after reviewing the tape, I thought Big Ben had one of his best seasons in 2013. We all know he has a unique skill set, with the ability to be a pocket passer but also extend the play when it's necessary. He's a little like a dancing bear with how light he is on his feet. Ultimately, there are two sets of numbers that stand out to me for Roethlisberger. The first is that he has 156 career starts and has won 67 percent of them. That's astonishing. The second is that veteran quarterbacks understand the necessity of coming away with touchdowns and not field goals in the red zone. In the last two seasons, Roethlisberger has 27 TDs and zero INTs inside the 20-yard line.
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7. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Previously: 9
Most of the other quarterbacks in my top 10 have Super Bowl rings, but Rivers certainly has Super Bowl talent. Rivers attempted only 23 passes outside of the pocket last year, so he's not going to beat you out there. But he's a tremendous quarterback inside the pocket. We probably don't give him enough credit for how he manages the line of scrimmage. He is tough as nails and isn't afraid to make the stick throws, and nobody has ever doubted his passion for the game. But what jumped out for me last year was his accuracy. Rivers led the league, completing 69.5 percent of his passes and had a Total QBR of 71.7 (third in the NFL). He should continue to excel with an improved offensive line in front of him.
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8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Previously: 11
Last season, Ryan's play suffered in part because the offensive line didn't protect him well. He needs a comfortable pocket to throw in and, like Rivers, isn't very mobile. When he can't get on that back foot to throw, you see inconsistencies. Ryan is terrific at getting through his progressions and throwing receivers open with tremendous anticipation. But if doesn't have a clean pocket, he becomes an average quarterback. That's what we saw last year after Julio Jones went down. Without Tony Gonzalez, will Ryan find another safety blanket?
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9. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Previously: 10
Wilson may not wow most observers with exceptional arm talent, but he is careful with where he distributes the football and simply knows how to win football games. The Seahawks do a great job of managing his game with designed movement, read-option and half-field reads off play-action. Wilson is probably the best in the league off structured improvisation. One thing I see on film is that he does sometimes struggle to see people, as is the case with shorter quarterbacks. He has improved on this but needs to get better at manipulating the pocket and seeing those throwing lanes.
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10. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Previously: 6
It wasn't a great 2013 season for Flacco, but part of that can be attributed to a down season from Ray Rice and a porous offensive line. Flacco remains one of the best deep throwers in the NFL, and there are few guys who can drive the ball down the field like him. He gutted it out toward the end of the year when his knee was clearly injured, which showed me a lot about his heart. Flacco knows that he can't make the kinds of silly mistakes he did last season and needs to cut down on his 22 interceptions. But I think he'll have a bounce-back year under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak.
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11. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Previously: 12
There's no way to sugarcoat it: Eli had an awful year in 2013. Throwing 15 interceptions in his first six games and 27 overall is simply unacceptable for a quarterback of his experience level and talent. I think that new OC Ben McAdoo will install a West Coast offense that gets the ball out of Manning's hands quicker and to his receivers in space. Based on last season, Manning should be in the bottom third of these ranks, but his career accomplishments earn him this spot. I'm expecting a big rebound season in 2014.
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12. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Previously: 8
Romo was in a tough situation last year. Dallas' defense was terrible (last in yards per game allowed), and most of the season he was playing from behind. You could argue that 2013 was his best season based on what he had around him on both sides on the ball. Romo has a tremendous skill set and a good arm, and he is a natural leader. He moves around the pocket and extends plays as well as any quarterback I've ever evaluated. But he still needs to eliminate the critical crunch-time mistakes that have plagued his career. He won't move up this list unless the Cowboys defense and running game (24th in YPG) improve in 2014.
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13. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Previously: 17
Kaepernick has a Howitzer for an arm and is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback. It's clear the trust that Jim Harbaugh has in him by how the offense is designed. We all know about the velocity on Kaepernick's throws, his ability to run the devastating read-option and his good accuracy, but now he must improve the little things. Occasionally a muddied pocket will bother him, and he needs to be better reading his progressions at times instead of looking to run when his first option isn't there. I think he'll take the next step this year.
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14. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Previously: 14
Like Kaepernick, Newton has a rocket for an arm, can drive the ball to any part of the field and is dangerous as a runner (5.3 YPC in 2013). Newton is big (6-5, 245) and strong, and he can hurt teams with unscripted plays. I was most impressed with his win last year against New Orleans in Week 16. He took the team on a five-play, 65-yard touchdown drive to win the game by delivering from inside the pocket. That drive showed me his maturity and that he now understands how to play the game at the NFL level. Newton still needs to improve his ability to read progressions, but he took a big step forward in 2013.
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15. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles
Previously: 18
People may be surprised that I have Foles this high, but he had an unbelievable 2013 season and deserves this spot. He dropped back over 400 times last season and threw only two interceptions. In the red zone, he threw 16 TDs with zero picks. Foles reads defenses well, knowing both where his receivers are going and where defenders are relative to those receivers. Chip Kelly's system makes the reads easier, but Foles did a terrific job running the Eagles' up-tempo offense and excelled against the blitz. His QB rating was 130 when there were five or more rushers.
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16. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Previously: 13
Stafford has top-10 arm talent and is capable of making throws that few quarterbacks can make. Frankly, on talent alone he should be in the top 10 of this ranking, but I have to put him down at No. 16 because he missed too many throws. He has great confidence in his skill set and consistently shows the ability to make stick throws, but he's erratic with his accuracy and ability to read coverage. I have no problem with a quarterback shifting arm slot when there is chaos in the pocket, but Stafford needs to have a consistent release point when he has a clean pocket.
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17. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Previously: 15
The best way to describe Smith is professional. He plays well week-in and week-out, and while he won't impress you with his numbers or make flashy throws, he is consistent and fits perfectly in Andy Reid's system. Smith doesn't work outside the numbers much, instead relying on routes inside the hashes and checkdowns. He understands the value of not turning the ball over, can read defenses well and is a good locker-room guy.
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18. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Previously: 16
I was disappointed in the way that Dalton played last season, and the film backed up my initial assessment. I thought he would make a big jump last year, and it just didn't happen. There were too many inaccurate throws, he got beat by trap defenses, and he made too many rookie mistakes for a player with 51 NFL starts. Dalton remains a good anticipation thrower and I know he's spent a lot of time working on his deep ball, but it must improve with one of the best wideouts in the NFL, A.J. Green, on the outside. Dalton has the supporting cast, and this is the year he needs to play better -- especially in the postseason. I think he will.
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19. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Previously: NR
This is a bit of a troubling rating for Cutler, because he has the natural ability to be in the top 10. I thought he started out the season well and came back strong after his injury. He bought into new head coach Marc Trestman's system and let the defense dictate where he went with the ball. Late in the year, though, his footwork and throwing got sloppy and he reverted back to some of his old tendencies. It's tempting to throw the ball up for grabs, especially when you have two guys like Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery on the outside, but Cutler needs to be a little more judicious -- especially against zones.
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20. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
Previously: 19
Palmer remains a tremendous anticipation thrower and has a really good feel for the passing game. He will throw it into man coverage and give his guys a chance. But even though he knows where to go with the football, he still made too many mistakes for a veteran quarterback; there were some games where I didn't know where he was throwing the football. He needs to improve his decision-making, as his nine third-down interceptions were the most in the NFC. I think he will improve in his second year working with Bruce Arians.
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21. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Previously: 21
Everyone was excited after RG III's first season, but people tend to get excited about the wrong things with young quarterbacks. He made his biggest impact with bootlegs, play-action and his athletic ability. But he didn't have that running ability last season coming back from his ACL tear, and teams blitzed him mercilessly -- almost twice as often last season as his rookie year. RG III simply couldn't move outside the pocket and didn't do a good-enough job of adjusting pre-snap. At the end of the day, he should be improved under Jay Gruden, who will simplify the playbook for him. Griffin has the tools; the question is whether he can put it all together again this season.
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22. Matt Schaub, Oakland Raiders
Previously: NR
I can't remember a quarterback of Schaub's caliber having the kind of meltdown he did last season in Houston. It was painful to watch. His mind wasn't clear, his decision-making was poor, and he made throws he simply shouldn't make at this point in his career. He's been a great first-down passer during his career, particularly on play-action, but last year he was terrible at both. We'll see if he can regain his confidence in Oakland.
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23. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Previously: 20
I really expected more out of Tannehill last season. Like I did with RG III, I loved what I saw his rookie season and thought he was a potential superstar. In 2013 he held on to the ball too long and wasn't decisive with his reads. To be fair, he also had a historically bad offensive line blocking for him and was sacked 58 times (10 more than any other QB). That certainly had an impact. I think Bill Lazor will help him with an up-tempo offense, and Tannehill should be improved this season.
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24. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
Previously: NR
Bradford has always been an enigma to me. I loved him coming out of Oklahoma, but he's always been injured. With a big arm, he can make every throw even though he lacks mobility; he just hasn't developed the consistency needed from an elite quarterback, and he doesn't excel when the pocket isn't clean. Third down is the money down in the NFL, and Bradford didn't play well enough on third down in 2013 for a guy with his talent.
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25. Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previously: 22
The presumptive starter in Tampa Bay, McCown played really well last season in Chicago after taking over for an injured Cutler. While McCown doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well, he is fundamentally sound and lets the defense dictate where he goes with the ball. He had a QB rating of 108.5 on third down in 2013 and understands what defenses are trying to do. He's great in the pre-snap phase, and with a couple of studs out wide in Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans, he should excel in Tampa Bay.
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26. Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns
Previously: NR
I remember watching Hoyer in preseason play when he was in New England and was always impressed. I think he has all the skills to be a consistent NFL quarterback. Fans in Cleveland want Johnny Manziel to see the field, but after visiting Browns minicamp, there's no question in my mind that Hoyer is the starter right now. He lacks on-field regular-season experience but played really well in three games before tearing his ACL last year. He could make a big leap this season if given the chance.
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27. Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Previously: 25
Blake Bortles will likely be the starter sooner rather than later, but Henne is keeping the seat warm. Henne is a solid NFL quarterback who throws really well on inside-breaking routes like slants, digs and crossers, but he doesn't have great movement in the pocket and a collapsing pocket really bothers him. He can make all the throws with a clean pocket, but I'm not sure he will get that in Jacksonville.
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28. EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
Previously: 24
With several of the quarterbacks this low on my board, the issue was health. Manuel had only 10 starts his rookie season and simply needs to stay on the field. When you're injured, you miss games and practices and are going to make more mistakes than you otherwise normally would. I thought Manuel struggled with consistent accuracy during the season. He needs to improve that, because the play-action game in Buffalo should be strong and allow either-or reads for him. On third down, he completed only 47.5 percent of his passes, the worst mark in the NFL. That must improve.
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29. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
Previously: NR
Locker is another quarterback who can't seem to stay healthy. Those missed live snaps have really cost him, as he's started only 18 games in three seasons. Locker has all the physical tools to be a franchise quarterback but hasn't improved the accuracy issues that plagued him in college at Washington. This is a big year for him.
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30. Geno Smith, New York Jets
Previously: 29
When the Jets acquired Michael Vick in the offseason, I thought he would be the starter in New York based on how I viewed Smith's performance in 2013. But I came away much more impressed with Smith after studying the tape. He seemed to improve every week and looked like a rock-solid NFL quarterback in the final four games of 2013. He still needs to be far more consistent reading defenses, but I believe that the starting job is his to lose in New York.
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31. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans
Previously: 26
I'm a bigger fan of Fitzpatrick than most. With 77 starts, he's a very streaky quarterback, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he plays under Bill O'Brien. Fitzpatrick is more mobile than you would think, and his red zone game is very good; last year, he had 8 TDs and zero picks there.
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32. Matt Cassel, Minnesota Vikings
Previously: NR
Another placeholder (this time for Teddy Bridgewater), Cassel is a solid veteran. He doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well but is pretty solid in all areas. He's got a guy in the backfield in Adrian Peterson who should make the play-action game easy, but it wasn't last year in Minnesota. That's one of the biggest reasons that Cassel is last on my list. You have to excel in situations in which you're at an advantage against the defense.
By [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Ron Jaworski[/FONT] | ESPN Insider
For some people, the offseason is a time to soak up the sun and work on their short game. But in my office, it's a time to pore over the previous season's film.
Since the Seattle Seahawks steamrolled the Denver Broncos 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII, I've gone over every throw from every quarterback in the NFL to properly evaluate the best 32 on my QB Big Board.
Despite a bad performance in that Super Bowl, Peyton Manning remains No. 1 on my board. But there is a lot of movement elsewhere.
Here's my preseason look at the top 32 quarterbacks in the NFL:
Note: There are no rookies on this list, as none have won starting jobs yet. The previous ranking referred to in each entry is from last season's final ranks in December. This list will update throughout the season, or before if starting jobs change.
[h=3]Jaworski's QB Rankings[/h]
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Manning
</center>1. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Previous: 1
People are going to question Manning's performance in Super Bowl XLVIII, but the Seattle defense muddied the pocket, took away his quick throws and hit him repeatedly. That defense can make any quarterback look average. As mycolleague Jeff Legwold detailed last week, Manning has watched the film meticulously and made adjustments. If Denver plays Seattle again, he'll be ready.
But singling out that game loses sight of the bigger picture for two reasons: Manning had the greatest season for a quarterback in NFL history in 2013, and he's fundamentally changed the way that quarterback is played in the NFL.
I played quarterback in the NFL for 17 years and have been a commentator for 24, and after my film study, I couldn't even figure out some of the pre-snap checks he was making. Everyone is chasing Peyton right now.
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Brady
</center>2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Previous: 2
The argument between Manning and Brady will go on well after each has finished his Hall of Fame career. I still believe that Joe Montana is the greatest quarterback ever, but that could change if Brady or Manning win a couple more titles in the coming years. Brady is amazing in the clutch, and his winning persona really spreads to the whole team. He's terrific in the pre-snap phase, identifying what a defense is doing, he can move people with his eyes, and his mechanics and accuracy are second to none.
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Rodgers
</center>3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Previously: 3
Rodgers may get the ball out of his hands quicker than any quarterback in the league right now. He is probably the best off-platform thrower in the NFL and doesn't need functional space to make a downfield throw. Rodgers understands coverages and can torch defenses with his legs, both running the ball and eluding rushers in the pocket. He has elite arm strength and, like Brady, pinpoint accuracy. There really aren't any holes in his game right now.
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Brees
</center>4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Previously: 4
What impresses me most about Brees is the way he practices -- with game-day intensity. He's also brilliant in the pre-snap phase of the game. I love the marriage of Sean Payton as a playcaller and Brees behind center. They think the same way in terms of exploiting defenses and creating mismatches in space. Brees has everything you want in a quarterback except the size, but he's mastered his ability to find passing lanes, pick his chin up and throw on his toes.
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Luck
</center>5. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Previously: 7
Luck cracks the top five for the first time on my Big Board, and I expect him to keep rising. One of the supposed questions for him was his arm strength, but let me tell you: I have zero concerns with his arm strength. Luck has a great touch and throws the ball only as hard as he needs to. With only 35 starts in the NFL, he's already an elite quarterback and a refined progression reader. At 6-foot-4, 235 pounds, he's big enough to run people over and fast enough to extend plays and get to the edge. He showed off all those attributes and his leadership in that improbable 45-44 wild-card comeback win against the Chiefs. The sky is the limit for this kid.
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Roethlisberger
</center>6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Previously: 5
Pittsburgh's 8-8 record may not be what fans expect from the Steelers, but after reviewing the tape, I thought Big Ben had one of his best seasons in 2013. We all know he has a unique skill set, with the ability to be a pocket passer but also extend the play when it's necessary. He's a little like a dancing bear with how light he is on his feet. Ultimately, there are two sets of numbers that stand out to me for Roethlisberger. The first is that he has 156 career starts and has won 67 percent of them. That's astonishing. The second is that veteran quarterbacks understand the necessity of coming away with touchdowns and not field goals in the red zone. In the last two seasons, Roethlisberger has 27 TDs and zero INTs inside the 20-yard line.
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Rivers
</center>7. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Previously: 9
Most of the other quarterbacks in my top 10 have Super Bowl rings, but Rivers certainly has Super Bowl talent. Rivers attempted only 23 passes outside of the pocket last year, so he's not going to beat you out there. But he's a tremendous quarterback inside the pocket. We probably don't give him enough credit for how he manages the line of scrimmage. He is tough as nails and isn't afraid to make the stick throws, and nobody has ever doubted his passion for the game. But what jumped out for me last year was his accuracy. Rivers led the league, completing 69.5 percent of his passes and had a Total QBR of 71.7 (third in the NFL). He should continue to excel with an improved offensive line in front of him.
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Ryan
</center>8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Previously: 11
Last season, Ryan's play suffered in part because the offensive line didn't protect him well. He needs a comfortable pocket to throw in and, like Rivers, isn't very mobile. When he can't get on that back foot to throw, you see inconsistencies. Ryan is terrific at getting through his progressions and throwing receivers open with tremendous anticipation. But if doesn't have a clean pocket, he becomes an average quarterback. That's what we saw last year after Julio Jones went down. Without Tony Gonzalez, will Ryan find another safety blanket?
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Wilson
</center>9. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Previously: 10
Wilson may not wow most observers with exceptional arm talent, but he is careful with where he distributes the football and simply knows how to win football games. The Seahawks do a great job of managing his game with designed movement, read-option and half-field reads off play-action. Wilson is probably the best in the league off structured improvisation. One thing I see on film is that he does sometimes struggle to see people, as is the case with shorter quarterbacks. He has improved on this but needs to get better at manipulating the pocket and seeing those throwing lanes.
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Flacco
</center>10. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
Previously: 6
It wasn't a great 2013 season for Flacco, but part of that can be attributed to a down season from Ray Rice and a porous offensive line. Flacco remains one of the best deep throwers in the NFL, and there are few guys who can drive the ball down the field like him. He gutted it out toward the end of the year when his knee was clearly injured, which showed me a lot about his heart. Flacco knows that he can't make the kinds of silly mistakes he did last season and needs to cut down on his 22 interceptions. But I think he'll have a bounce-back year under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak.
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Manning
</center>11. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Previously: 12
There's no way to sugarcoat it: Eli had an awful year in 2013. Throwing 15 interceptions in his first six games and 27 overall is simply unacceptable for a quarterback of his experience level and talent. I think that new OC Ben McAdoo will install a West Coast offense that gets the ball out of Manning's hands quicker and to his receivers in space. Based on last season, Manning should be in the bottom third of these ranks, but his career accomplishments earn him this spot. I'm expecting a big rebound season in 2014.
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Romo
</center>12. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Previously: 8
Romo was in a tough situation last year. Dallas' defense was terrible (last in yards per game allowed), and most of the season he was playing from behind. You could argue that 2013 was his best season based on what he had around him on both sides on the ball. Romo has a tremendous skill set and a good arm, and he is a natural leader. He moves around the pocket and extends plays as well as any quarterback I've ever evaluated. But he still needs to eliminate the critical crunch-time mistakes that have plagued his career. He won't move up this list unless the Cowboys defense and running game (24th in YPG) improve in 2014.
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Kaepernick
</center>13. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Previously: 17
Kaepernick has a Howitzer for an arm and is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback. It's clear the trust that Jim Harbaugh has in him by how the offense is designed. We all know about the velocity on Kaepernick's throws, his ability to run the devastating read-option and his good accuracy, but now he must improve the little things. Occasionally a muddied pocket will bother him, and he needs to be better reading his progressions at times instead of looking to run when his first option isn't there. I think he'll take the next step this year.
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Newton
</center>14. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Previously: 14
Like Kaepernick, Newton has a rocket for an arm, can drive the ball to any part of the field and is dangerous as a runner (5.3 YPC in 2013). Newton is big (6-5, 245) and strong, and he can hurt teams with unscripted plays. I was most impressed with his win last year against New Orleans in Week 16. He took the team on a five-play, 65-yard touchdown drive to win the game by delivering from inside the pocket. That drive showed me his maturity and that he now understands how to play the game at the NFL level. Newton still needs to improve his ability to read progressions, but he took a big step forward in 2013.
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Foles
</center>15. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles
Previously: 18
People may be surprised that I have Foles this high, but he had an unbelievable 2013 season and deserves this spot. He dropped back over 400 times last season and threw only two interceptions. In the red zone, he threw 16 TDs with zero picks. Foles reads defenses well, knowing both where his receivers are going and where defenders are relative to those receivers. Chip Kelly's system makes the reads easier, but Foles did a terrific job running the Eagles' up-tempo offense and excelled against the blitz. His QB rating was 130 when there were five or more rushers.
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Stafford
</center>16. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Previously: 13
Stafford has top-10 arm talent and is capable of making throws that few quarterbacks can make. Frankly, on talent alone he should be in the top 10 of this ranking, but I have to put him down at No. 16 because he missed too many throws. He has great confidence in his skill set and consistently shows the ability to make stick throws, but he's erratic with his accuracy and ability to read coverage. I have no problem with a quarterback shifting arm slot when there is chaos in the pocket, but Stafford needs to have a consistent release point when he has a clean pocket.
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Smith
</center>17. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Previously: 15
The best way to describe Smith is professional. He plays well week-in and week-out, and while he won't impress you with his numbers or make flashy throws, he is consistent and fits perfectly in Andy Reid's system. Smith doesn't work outside the numbers much, instead relying on routes inside the hashes and checkdowns. He understands the value of not turning the ball over, can read defenses well and is a good locker-room guy.
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Dalton
</center>18. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Previously: 16
I was disappointed in the way that Dalton played last season, and the film backed up my initial assessment. I thought he would make a big jump last year, and it just didn't happen. There were too many inaccurate throws, he got beat by trap defenses, and he made too many rookie mistakes for a player with 51 NFL starts. Dalton remains a good anticipation thrower and I know he's spent a lot of time working on his deep ball, but it must improve with one of the best wideouts in the NFL, A.J. Green, on the outside. Dalton has the supporting cast, and this is the year he needs to play better -- especially in the postseason. I think he will.
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Cutler
</center>19. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Previously: NR
This is a bit of a troubling rating for Cutler, because he has the natural ability to be in the top 10. I thought he started out the season well and came back strong after his injury. He bought into new head coach Marc Trestman's system and let the defense dictate where he went with the ball. Late in the year, though, his footwork and throwing got sloppy and he reverted back to some of his old tendencies. It's tempting to throw the ball up for grabs, especially when you have two guys like Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery on the outside, but Cutler needs to be a little more judicious -- especially against zones.
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Palmer
</center>20. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
Previously: 19
Palmer remains a tremendous anticipation thrower and has a really good feel for the passing game. He will throw it into man coverage and give his guys a chance. But even though he knows where to go with the football, he still made too many mistakes for a veteran quarterback; there were some games where I didn't know where he was throwing the football. He needs to improve his decision-making, as his nine third-down interceptions were the most in the NFC. I think he will improve in his second year working with Bruce Arians.
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Griffin
</center>21. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Previously: 21
Everyone was excited after RG III's first season, but people tend to get excited about the wrong things with young quarterbacks. He made his biggest impact with bootlegs, play-action and his athletic ability. But he didn't have that running ability last season coming back from his ACL tear, and teams blitzed him mercilessly -- almost twice as often last season as his rookie year. RG III simply couldn't move outside the pocket and didn't do a good-enough job of adjusting pre-snap. At the end of the day, he should be improved under Jay Gruden, who will simplify the playbook for him. Griffin has the tools; the question is whether he can put it all together again this season.
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Schaub
</center>22. Matt Schaub, Oakland Raiders
Previously: NR
I can't remember a quarterback of Schaub's caliber having the kind of meltdown he did last season in Houston. It was painful to watch. His mind wasn't clear, his decision-making was poor, and he made throws he simply shouldn't make at this point in his career. He's been a great first-down passer during his career, particularly on play-action, but last year he was terrible at both. We'll see if he can regain his confidence in Oakland.
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Tannehill
</center>23. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Previously: 20
I really expected more out of Tannehill last season. Like I did with RG III, I loved what I saw his rookie season and thought he was a potential superstar. In 2013 he held on to the ball too long and wasn't decisive with his reads. To be fair, he also had a historically bad offensive line blocking for him and was sacked 58 times (10 more than any other QB). That certainly had an impact. I think Bill Lazor will help him with an up-tempo offense, and Tannehill should be improved this season.
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Bradford
</center>24. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
Previously: NR
Bradford has always been an enigma to me. I loved him coming out of Oklahoma, but he's always been injured. With a big arm, he can make every throw even though he lacks mobility; he just hasn't developed the consistency needed from an elite quarterback, and he doesn't excel when the pocket isn't clean. Third down is the money down in the NFL, and Bradford didn't play well enough on third down in 2013 for a guy with his talent.
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McCown
</center>25. Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Previously: 22
The presumptive starter in Tampa Bay, McCown played really well last season in Chicago after taking over for an injured Cutler. While McCown doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well, he is fundamentally sound and lets the defense dictate where he goes with the ball. He had a QB rating of 108.5 on third down in 2013 and understands what defenses are trying to do. He's great in the pre-snap phase, and with a couple of studs out wide in Vincent Jackson and rookie Mike Evans, he should excel in Tampa Bay.
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Hoyer
</center>26. Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns
Previously: NR
I remember watching Hoyer in preseason play when he was in New England and was always impressed. I think he has all the skills to be a consistent NFL quarterback. Fans in Cleveland want Johnny Manziel to see the field, but after visiting Browns minicamp, there's no question in my mind that Hoyer is the starter right now. He lacks on-field regular-season experience but played really well in three games before tearing his ACL last year. He could make a big leap this season if given the chance.
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Henne
</center>27. Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Previously: 25
Blake Bortles will likely be the starter sooner rather than later, but Henne is keeping the seat warm. Henne is a solid NFL quarterback who throws really well on inside-breaking routes like slants, digs and crossers, but he doesn't have great movement in the pocket and a collapsing pocket really bothers him. He can make all the throws with a clean pocket, but I'm not sure he will get that in Jacksonville.
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Manuel
</center>28. EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
Previously: 24
With several of the quarterbacks this low on my board, the issue was health. Manuel had only 10 starts his rookie season and simply needs to stay on the field. When you're injured, you miss games and practices and are going to make more mistakes than you otherwise normally would. I thought Manuel struggled with consistent accuracy during the season. He needs to improve that, because the play-action game in Buffalo should be strong and allow either-or reads for him. On third down, he completed only 47.5 percent of his passes, the worst mark in the NFL. That must improve.
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Locker
</center>29. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
Previously: NR
Locker is another quarterback who can't seem to stay healthy. Those missed live snaps have really cost him, as he's started only 18 games in three seasons. Locker has all the physical tools to be a franchise quarterback but hasn't improved the accuracy issues that plagued him in college at Washington. This is a big year for him.
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Smith
</center>30. Geno Smith, New York Jets
Previously: 29
When the Jets acquired Michael Vick in the offseason, I thought he would be the starter in New York based on how I viewed Smith's performance in 2013. But I came away much more impressed with Smith after studying the tape. He seemed to improve every week and looked like a rock-solid NFL quarterback in the final four games of 2013. He still needs to be far more consistent reading defenses, but I believe that the starting job is his to lose in New York.
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Fitzpatrick
</center>31. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans
Previously: 26
I'm a bigger fan of Fitzpatrick than most. With 77 starts, he's a very streaky quarterback, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he plays under Bill O'Brien. Fitzpatrick is more mobile than you would think, and his red zone game is very good; last year, he had 8 TDs and zero picks there.
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Cassel
</center>32. Matt Cassel, Minnesota Vikings
Previously: NR
Another placeholder (this time for Teddy Bridgewater), Cassel is a solid veteran. He doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well but is pretty solid in all areas. He's got a guy in the backfield in Adrian Peterson who should make the play-action game easy, but it wasn't last year in Minnesota. That's one of the biggest reasons that Cassel is last on my list. You have to excel in situations in which you're at an advantage against the defense.
